10-7-12

[poopoo333]

Hook
Sun 8:35PM 436 NYJ 9.0(-125) vs. 435 HOU triple-dime
8:30PM 434 NOS -3.0(-125) vs. 433 SDC double-dime bet
1:00PM 422 CIN -3.0(-130) vs. 421 MIA double-dime bet

[poopoo333]

Info plays

7* on seattle seahawks +3

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

5* #414. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday @ 1pm est).

4* #424.Over 46 Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday @ 1pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker | NFL Total Sun, 10/07/12 - 1:00 PM ¡²
triple-dime bet 423 BAL / 424 KAN OVER 46.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
There are certain ways that I handicap All Totals in All Sports and in many ways they are all very similar. There are some variances in the ways I do that though and in the case of the NFL Injuries come into play much more than other sports. Beating the Totals Market is just not as complicated as most would see it, and simplifying the way everyone does it, would probably bring great benefits. My Model tells me a number based on 16 to 18 Variables, and then based on the intangibles and injuries, that number is re-adjusted up or down. With the NFL that number gets re-adjusted more with certain types of injuries.

My opening number for Ravens/Chiefs was 48.9. That has been re-adjusted to 51.8 due to a number of factors and most importantly the fact that the Chiefs are hurting in the secondary and LB Positions. Other factors as well make this a 3% Play and my favorite play for Sunday..

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker | NFL Total Sun, 10/07/12 - 1:00 PM ¡²
double-dime bet 415 GBP / 416 IND OVER 47.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
There are certain ways that I handicap All Totals in All Sports and in many ways they are all very similar. There are some variances in the ways I do that though and in the case of the NFL Injuries come into play much more than other sports. Beating the Totals Market is just not as complicated as most would see it, and simplifying the way everyone does it, would probably bring great benefits. My Model tells me a number based on 16 to 18 Variables, and then based on the intangibles and injuries, that number is re-adjusted up or down. With the NFL that number gets re-adjusted more with certain types of injuries.

My opening number for the Packers/Colts was already close enough for a possible play and was 49.1. That has been overall helped by the injury situation with both teams suffering some Key D Injuries. We also have Perfect Playing conditions here in THE BARN and that helped the initial number be as high as it is. My Number now is 51.5 and that makes this a 2% Play.

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker | NFL Total Sun, 10/07/12 - 1:00 PM ¡²
double-dime bet 421 MIA / 422 CIN OVER 45.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
There are certain ways that I handicap All Totals in All Sports and in many ways they are all very similar. There are some variances in the ways I do that though and in the case of the NFL Injuries come into play much more than other sports. Beating the Totals Market is just not as complicated as most would see it, and simplifying the way everyone does it, would probably bring great benefits. My Model tells me a number based on 16 to 18 Variables, and then based on the intangibles and injuries, that number is re-adjusted up or down. With the NFL that number gets re-adjusted more with certain types of injuries.


My opening number for the Dolphins/Bengals was 45.6 and at that level we would not be playing this one. However, Key injuries for both teams and another variable I got from a source as to what Miami plans to do Sunday has pushed my number WAY above the opening. I now have 49.2 and that makes this a 2% Play..

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence:

4* Titans+5.5
3* Miami+3.5
3* KC+6
3* NYJ +9

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole:

4* Cin/Miami OVER 45

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS

5-Unit Play. Take #422 Cincinnati (-3) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

There was a time when you'd be better off punching yourself in the face then betting on the Bengals as a home favorite. (And we are not that far removed from that time.) However, I am starting to get the sense that this is a very good football team. The Bengals are starting to get healthy on a defense that has been one of the more underrated units in football over the last two seasons. And I think that being at home after back-to-back road games is going to give them a big boost against an exhausted Miami team. To be blunt, there is no way in hell that Ryan Tannehill is going to throw for over 400 yards again this week. And I don't see the Dolphins racking up nearly 500 yards on that side of the ball again this week. The Bengals should be able to smother Miami's weak receiving corps and I expect one of Cincy's better defensive efforts. But the main thing is that I don't know how much this young Miami team has left in the tank after back-to-back grueling, heartbreaking losses to the Jets and Cardinals. This is now back-to-back road games and I wonder if they will bounce back. Miami has been playing teams tight and showing improvement. But a big part of that is Miami is getting everyone's ?C? game each Sunday. They caught Oakland in the perfect letdown situation in Week 2. The Jets were off a more marquee game at Pittsburgh. Arizona was stuck in between a huge win over Philadelphia and a road game on a short week at rival St. Louis. So Miami hasn't taken anyone's best punch yet. I think Cincinnati will deliver its best punch this week. Cincinnati coasted to a much-easier-than-it-looked 27-10 win at Jacksonville last week and I can see the Jags and Fins as nearly equal. Cincinnati melted down in their last 20 minutes against Baltimore to open the season. But if you throw that 20 minutes out they have played three of four games on the road and have outscored their opponents by +27 points. It is tough for rookies to have back-to-back strong road games and I think that some more Miami turnovers will be their undoing. I think the Bengals win by around a touchdown here, and that it will only be that close because Miami makes a little run late and scores some garbage time points to make it seem closer than it actually was.

2-Unit Play. Take #427 Chicago (-6) over Jacksonville (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

I will admit: I was wrong about the Jaguars. I thought that this team was ready to compete this year and I thought they might be a nice sleeper in the AFC. They will not be. This team can't score, they can't throw the ball, they can't get pressure, they can't protect, and they really just can't do a lot of things right. Houston and Cincinnati coasted and blew this Jaguars team out. Chicago might be better than either of those teams. The Bears will bring their Cover-2 defense to the party and Jacksonville doesn't do enough well on that side of the ball to break down the Bears D. On the other side, Chicago's offensive line should hold up against a Jaguars defense that has just three sacks in four games. That is the Bears weakness. If Jacksonville can't exploit it they don't have much hope here. Chicago's offense might be starting to click. And even without the defensive scores they managed 20 points on the road against a very, very good Dallas defense. The Jags misery continues. The Bears should get another blowout win.

2-Unit Play. Take #414 Pittsburgh (-3) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

This really is a must-win game for the Steelers. They are coming off a bye week and are at home against a Philadelphia team that is coming off an emotional win over New York. But the Eagles kind of own the Giants so that one isn't a huge surprise. What is a surprise is that the Eagles are 3-1 but have their three wins by a total of just four points. The Eagles have been awful in their two road games this season, at Cleveland and at Arizona. Mike Vick can't be trusted. And this 3-4 Steelers defense has had two weeks to prepare for him. The Eagles defense is flat-out nasty. And I see at least seven sacks from them in this one. But Big Ben takes a licking and keeps on ticking. I think he is going to be able to make enough plays in this game to gut out another vintage Steelers home win. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after a loss and 11-4 ATS in their last five games after a loss against the numbers. Pittsburgh is 9-3 ATS at home and the Eagles are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to beat a number. Take the motivated home team.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #417 Cleveland (+9) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

Until the Giants show that they can come to play and lay the wood to an overmatched opponent then we have to continue to bet against them. Cleveland has already gone toe-to-toe with the Eagles and Ravens, and they have lost those two games by just eight total points. They were also much closer than their 10-point loss to the Bills suggested. The Browns had a few extra days to prepare and I think that they will be able to move the ball on the ground against a pretty mediocre Giants running defense. New York will be without Hakeem Nicks and they are banged up in the secondary. Most importantly, the Giants are coming off an emotional loss on the road at Philadelphia and they have an emotional rematch showdown with the Niners on deck. New York is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite of 8.0 or higher. Take the points.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #429 Denver (+6.5) over New England (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

I think that this is too many points for a Denver team that could win this game outright. Yes, New England won by 24 points in a ?blowout? last week at Buffalo. But they were losing 21-7 in that game before the Bills imploded. New England's offense is still lacking some sizzle without Aaron Hernandez and they are just 2-2 on the season, after all. Also, the Patriots are 3-1 ATS on the season so they will get a lot of love from the books. But there are some issues with this team, especially on offense, and I think that Denver will make this one a horse race. The Broncos have gone toe-to-toe with Atlanta and Houston, two of the best teams in football, and they have beaten Pittsburgh. This Broncos team is getting better and better each week with Manning under center and I think that this game is going to be very similar to the New Orleans-Green Bay contest we saw last week. It should be end-to-end action and the team with the ball last will have a chance for the win. But the points should hold up.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #411 Atlanta (-3) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

If this line had come out around a touchdown, where I thought it would, then I would have looked hard at the Redskins. So why play the Falcons? Because the line came out so low that tells me that the Redskins are still a little overvalued by the general public because of RG-III. The reality is that Washington's defense is a train wreck and I don't see any way that they are going to be able to slow down Atlanta when they need to. Fortunately for them, the weather should help out on that side of the ball (hence my play on the 'under') but that is also going to slow down Washington's big play attack. Atlanta is the much more experienced team. They are excellent on the road, winning via blowout already at Kansas City and at San Diego. They just beat Carolina, which is a team that is very similar to the Redskins, and Atlanta just has a lot more to work with on the defensive side of the ball. Washington already lost at home to Cincinnati and I think that Griffin falls to 0-2 in front of the home crowd. Take the Falcons here.

1-Unit Play. Take #211 New Orleans (-3.5) over San Diego (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

There is desperation, and then there is what the Saints face on Sunday night. This team is 0-4 and needs something to go right in a big way. The fact that they are 0-4 and that they are still the favorites in this game shows me how much respect the oddsmakers have for New Orleans' prowess in the Superdome. Their defense is still a train wreck. But I think that they will be able to force Phil Rivers into some turnovers behind that shaky offensive line. San Diego is the least impressive 3-1 team in football. They have beaten three horrendous teams (Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City) and they have won those games mainly because their opponents threw up on themselves with turnovers and horrible special teams play. The Chargers have actually been outgained in three of their four contests and I think that this team is overrated. Maybe this is the week that it catches up to them. Maybe it is not. But both of these teams have weaknesses. And I think that the home crowd, the better offense, and the desperation that comes from being 0-4 will give the Saints a boost here and help them beat this number.

This Week's Totals:
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.5 Chicago at Jacksonville (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 50.0 Atlanta at Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 46.0 Baltimore at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.5 Seattle at Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)


NOTE: These are 7-point teasers.
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #432 San Francisco (-2.5) over Buffalo (4 p.m.) AND Take #435 Houston (-1) over N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #415 Green Bay (Pk) over Indianapolis (1 p.m.) AND Take #425 Seattle (+10) over Carolina (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #429 Denver (+13.5) AND Take #432 San Francisco (-2.5) over Buffalo (4 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Miami at Cincinnati
Pick: Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins started the season with a blowout loss at the hands of Houston. They then returned the favor vs. Oakland with a blowout win 35-13. Given how good Houston is, so far so good. But then Miami lost two more games to drop to 1-3. But is it that bad? Both of those losses came in OT so the Dolphins could very well be 3-1 right now. Despite the losses, the Dolphins’ offense has generated lots of yardage. They have, in fact won the battle at the line of scrimmage by +174 yards in the last three weeks. That is bad news for Cincinnati who has allowed 28 points per game despite holding the Jacksonville offense to just 10 points last week. The Bengals generate most of their yards in the passing game, as their running game has been stalled. Miami may be giving up yards, but their QB rating against is just 75.9, and they are holding teams to a 29% conversion rate on third down. The Bengals can't stop the run or pass, allowing 5.45 yards per carry on the ground. Both of these teams can move the ball, but the Dolphins have more resistance to slow down the Bengals. Miami has come up big in their last eight vs. a winning team at a flawless 8-0 ATS, while the Bengals have managed just one cover in their last 10 vs. the AFC. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are a horrible play as home chalk going just 13-25 ATS as a home favorite. My computer matchup for this game pegs the game a dead heat. Take the Fins here. Buy to +3.5 if you can. Otherwise, grab them at +3.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo's 10* NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR (PERFECT 4-0)

Steelers -3

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Hook

Sun 8:35PM 436 NYJ 9.0(-125) vs. 435 HOU triple-dime
8:30PM 434 NOS -3.0(-125) vs. 433 SDC double-dime bet
1:00PM 422 CIN -3.0(-130) vs. 421 MIA double-dime bet

[Mr. IWS]

Info plays

7* on seattle seahawks +3

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Green Bay at Indianapolis
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Green Bay (-7 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 3, 2012 @ 2:29:08 AM EDT

It doesn't matter that the Colts are coming off a bye and the Packers probably aren't going to have Greg Jennings.

The Colts are a young team in total transition. Making things harder for the Colts is they have injuries on their offensive line and in their secondary. They also are down their well-liked first year head coach, Chuck Pagano, who is undergoing treatment for leukemia.

The Packers got their offense back in gear. Aaron Rodgers is going to put up plenty of points playing indoors against such a vulnerable defense.

Andrew Luck is going to be an elite quarterback. But right now he's a rookie and he's going to encounter problems with an improved Packer defense and their savvy defensive coordinator Dom Capers, who will be mixing up different looks and blitzes. The Colts are going to have problems containing Clay Matthews.

Green Bay hasn't been sharp on both sides of the ball. But now the Packers are stepping way down in class after playing the 49ers, Bears, Seahawks in Seattle and high-powered Saints.

This is the time to lay the wood with Green Bay.


Matchup: Buffalo at San Francisco
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: San Francisco (-9 -115)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 2, 2012 @ 2:24:52 AM EDT

I'm going to ride the Jim Harbaugh pointspread marching and lay this number before it reach double-digits. The 49ers are a fantastic 17-5-1 (77 percent) ATS in their last 22 games.

The Billls are a soft team playing the most physical opponent. Not only is this a grass game, but the Bills also are making a long trip reducing their practice time. Buffalo's confidence is down, too, after being steamrolled once again by the Patriots.

The 49ers return home after two weeks on the road. The 49ers' defense is top-rate. Their ground attack is much better than New England's and the Patriots gashed the Bills for 277 yards on the ground, averaging 6.1 yards per run. The Bills also struggle with tight ends and Vernon Davis is one of the best. He's averaged a touchdown per game in his last nine games.

Making matters worse for the Bills is they are not healthy offensively. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are coming off injuries. The Bills are likely to be without two starting offensive linemen, too, as left tackle Cordy Glenn and right guard Kraig Urbik were injured against the Patriots.


Matchup: Tennessee at Minnesota
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Tennessee (+6 -115)
Line Source: Bet Phoenix
Posted on: October 5, 2012 @ 6:02:09 AM EDT

The improved Vikings have been one of the feel-good stories during the first month of the season.

But now it's time to step in against Minnesota. The Titans won nine game last season. They are better off with veteran Matt Hasselbeck behind center in this matchup.

Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder has been drawing some nice publicity, but he's still a dink-and-dunker helped tremendously by Adrian Peterson and multi-talented Percy Harvin. The Titans' run defense is going to pick up with the return to health of middle linebacker Colin McCarthy.

The Titans outgained the Texas by 28 yards last week. They held Arian Foster in check. They can do the same with Peterson. Tennessee has been hurt by a minus 6 ratio. Expect fewer turnovers with the more experienced Hasselbeck in charge.

Chris Johnson showed signs of breaking out of his season-long funk as he rushed for 141 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, against an outstanding Houston defense.

The Titans aren't as bad as their record. The Vikings have been overachieving. Expect a correction to come in this game.
Member Plays



Matchup: Baltimore at Kansas City
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Kansas City (+7 -135)
Line Source: Heritage
Posted on: October 4, 2012 @ 2:06:34 PM EDT


This number has been bouncing around from as low as Chiefs plus 5 up as high as plus 7 with big juice. My handicap is to the Chiefs here. But finding the right number is just as important.

I would play the Chiefs at plus 6, too, but at a smaller amount than at 6 1/2 or 7. Pinnacle has been at 6 minus $1.04, which has kept the market down. There's no rush to play this game, though, at plus 6. Wait and shop and you'll get a 6 1/2 if you can't find one now. Perhaps even a plus 7 at juice that isn't too high if you happen to have a lot of outs.

The NFL is all about when you play a team - and the timing is right for Kansas City in this matchup.

This is a flat spot for Baltimore. The Ravens just played three straight prime time games. They scored a huge home revenge win against New England two weeks ago followed by a short turnaround last Thursday with a hard-played home victory against division rival Cleveland. That was their fourth game in 18 days. Up next after this game for Baltimore is a home game against Dallas. The Ravens have failed to cover the last four times they've faced an opponent with a losing record.

The Ravens' defense isn't nearly as intimidating on the road and it's down this season minus their best pass rusher, Terrell Suggs. The Ravens can be run on to to the outside. Jamaal Charles is healthy again. A healthy Charles could be the most dangerous runner in the league. He's rushed for 325 yards in his last two games as he gets nearer to being 100 percent from last year's season-ending knee injury.

The Chiefs have outgained their opponents by 375 yards, an average of 87.5 yards per game. But are just 1-3 due to an NFL-worst 15 turnovers. Matt Cassel is in danger of losing his starting job. Cassel is never going to be an elite quarterback, but he can be a competent game-manager. He has the league's No. 1 ground attack behind him and a solid No. 1 receiving target in Dwayne Bowe.

Baltimore wins with its offense these days not its defense. The Chiefs have the pass rushers with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston to disrupt Joe Flacco's timing, especially playing in noisy Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are a desperate team playing at home. They have talent and the stats to prove it. They just need to protect the ball.



Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: San Diego at New Orleans
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New Orleans (-3 -125)
Line Source: Bet Phoenix
Posted on: October 2, 2012 @ 2:12:41 AM EDT

The Saints aren't going to make the playoffs. Not starting 0-4 and in a tough division. But they will be up for this nationally televised home game against an overrated foe.

Thanks to Drew Brees, the Saints still have an elite offense. Brees is at his absolute finest when playing at home. In his last nine games at the Louisiana Superdome, Brees is 236-of-351 (67 percent) for 3,029 yards and 32 touchdowns with just seven interceptions.

Yes, Brees does miss the coaching acumen of Sean Payton. But Brees still is on pace to throw for 5,400 yards and 40 touchdowns. The Saints are going to put up plenty of points on the Chargers. The key question is can the Saints' defense stop anyone?

The Saints lack talent on defense. They are not good tacklers, nor pass rushers. But they will get after Philip Rivers, spurred on by their home crowd in this matchup. This wil be the Saints' Super Bowl game.

Left tackle Jared Gaither is back to protect Philip Rivers' blind side. Gaither is a hupe upgrade for San Diego. But he is rusty after missing training camp, preseason and the first three games of the season with back problems.

The Chargers do not have a strong early-season history. Norv Turner has had much better teams at San Diego than this one. Still, his record with the Chargers during September and October is just 20-20.

San Diego is 3-1, but the lone time it stepped up in class it was buried. That came at home against the Falcons, who won 27-3. Victories against bad foes - Raiders, Titans and Chiefs - don't impress me. The Chargers were out-gained by the Chiefs, but won easily because of six Kansas City turnovers.

[Mr. IWS]

Doc enterprises
5* pittsburgh -3.5