10-11-12

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Edwards's Pick Pack

NCAA Football Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Arizona State at Colorado
Time: 9:00 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Under (57.5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2012 @ 2:17:23 PM EDT

Arizona St. has a stout defense that's ranked fourth in the nation in pass defense and 12th in scoring defense, surrendering just 13.6 points per game against offenses more efficient than the one Colorado will trot out tonight in Boulder. The Sun Devils have seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games with combined point totals of 44 in each of those three contests. Give me the 'under.'

[Mr. IWS]

Christian Alexander's Pick Pack

NCAA Football Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Texas-El Paso at Tulsa
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Texas-El Paso (+17 -115)
Line Source: Heritage
Posted on: October 10, 2012 @ 7:28:20 PM EDT

UTEP is not a very good football team, but neither is Tulsa. Tulsa has built a good record beating bad teams. UTEP has at least built a bad record losing to quality teams (at least in comparison to Tulsa) and UTEP hasn’t lost a game all year by more than 18 points (at Ole Miss). UTEP has struggled offensively at times this year but they are playing a Tulsa defense that hasn’t stopped anyone. Tulsa shouldn’t have any trouble winning this game but I look for UTEP to score enough points to comfortably stay within the number as they have all year against much better competition.

[Mr. IWS]

ASA's Pick Pack

NFL Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (42.0 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 9, 2012 @ 5:45:41 PM EDT

PLAY ON: OVER 44 Steeler @ Titans - 8:20 pm ET

The Titans defense has been horrendous this year. They are dead last in PPG allowed giving up 36. They have yet to hold a team under 30 points in their 5 games this season. Their opponents have been rolling up an average of 424 YPG on this sieve of a defense. Don’t expect that to change on Thursday when they face Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. This isn’t the Pittsburgh offense of old where they would grind their opponent into submission with their potent ground game. This team loves to throw the ball. Roethlisberger puts it up nearly 40 times per game. He is averaging 26 completions per game which is 8th in the NFL. Passing extends the game by stopping the clock on incompletions. It also creates more big plays for the offense. They won’t stray from that here with Tennessee giving up an average of 280 YPG passing. Pittsburgh is coming off a low scoring 16-14 win over Philly, however both teams had chances to put more points on the board in that one. Plus, the Eagles have a FAR superior defense to the Titans. The Steelers two road games this year were both high scoring affairs (50 points @ Denver and 65 points @ Oakland) and their defense isn’t as “shut down” as it used to be. Their getting old and injuries have crept up again with safety Troy Palomalu out and Lamar Woodley highly questionable. The Titans have struggled offensively, however their two home games were both very high scoring (47 points vs New England & 85 points vs Detroit). Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck took over last week for an injured Jake Locker and will start again on Thursday. He threw it 48 times for 215 yards in Minnesota. While Tennessee only put up 7 points in that game, their yardage total says they would normally get to about 17 points in that situation. They probably won’t do much on the ground in this game against Pitt, so look for Hasselbeck to heave it a lot which favors the over. The Titans are 31st in the NFL in rush attempts per game at just 18. They are 11th in the NFL in pass attempts per game at 38. Thus we are expecting close to 80 pass attempts on Thursday night. The Steelers will put up big numbers just as everyone has on Tennessee. We think the Titans will move the ball and score more than they normally would in this one. It doesn’t look like weather will be a factor and this game will go OVER the Total.

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover's Pick Pack

NFL Thursday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (43.0 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: October 10, 2012 @ 4:27:26 PM EDT

Much of the focus on Tennessee's disappointing season has come on its offense where Chris Johnson continues to be in a funk averaging an embarrassing 2.9 yards per carry and Matt Hasselbeck looks washed up.

What's not being discussed as much is how bad and soft the Titans' defense has become since Jeff Fisher left. The Titans are giving up the most points in the NFL, an average of 36.2 points per game. They rank 29th in yards allowed. The Titans don't generate much of a pass rush, their best linebacker is playing at less than 100 percent and they could have the worst starting safeties in the league.

The Steelers have the weapons to take full advantage especially with a now healthy Rashard Mendenhall. He gives the Steelers a legitimate back and sets up Ben Roethlisberger's play-action passes. Mike Wallace, one of the NFL's most feared deep threats, is in line for a big game.

I expect the Titans to put up their share of points, too. This is a quick turnaround for Pittsburgh's aging defense, which has seven starters in their 30s and greatly misses defensive end Aaron Smith and linebacker James Farrior. The Steelers' defense has looked slow this season. They haven't generated much of a pass rush and have shown leaks against the run. Not helping matters for the Steelers is that LaMarr Woodley, perhaps their most dangerous pass rusher, and star safety Troy Polamalu are both out.

The Titans should get a boost with Kenny Britt, their most talented wideout by far, expected to see his most extensive action.

[Mr. IWS]

Ed Meyer's Pick Pack

NFL Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (43.0 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: October 10, 2012 @ 6:50:54 PM EDT

The Titans’ offense looked terrible in Minnesota. Here they are a significant dog and they have a bad defense. Munchak and the Titans’ brass should know that 20 points is not going to win this one. After last weeks debacle, he is going to have to be aggressive on offense if they are going to have a chance against the Steelers and their potent passing game.
Tennessee is 11-0 OU when hosting an AFC team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date as long as that opponent is not undefeated. The SDQL text is:
team=Titans and H and oS(completions)/oS(passes)>0.65 and C and o:WP<100
Also, Tennessee is 7-0 OU (15.5 ppg) during October the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road, 7-0 OU (+10.1 ppg) during October at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35 and 8-0 OU (+8.6 ppg) recently when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. This is all evidence that the Titans can’t waste a single possession. They have to open up the playbook and perhaps try a little trickery.
The Steelers completion percentage last week was down and this is a sign to take the OVER here. Pittsburgh is 10-0 OU as a favorite the week after a game in which they threw for less than 225 yards and their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:
team=Steelers and F and NB and tA(p:CP)*1.0-p:CP*1.0>10 and p:PY<225 and season>=2007
Note that the Steelers have gone over the total by an average of 13.8 ppg in this spot and each of their last six have gone over by more than a TD. In fact, this trend was active when these two met last season. Pittsburgh won 38-17.
In fact, the league as a whole is 15-0 OU (+10.1 ppg) during October as a favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average.
We’ll finish with a very unsophisticated trend. The Steelers are 9-0 OU (+11.3 ppg) during October on the road after a straight up win at home.
Get in as soon as you can to avoid the push at scores like 24-20 and 27-17.
MTi’s FORECAST: Pittsburgh 30 TENNESSEE 24

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Pritchard's Pick Pack

NCAA Football Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Texas-El Paso at Tulsa
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (57.0 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: October 11, 2012 @ 12:10:08 AM EDT

Happy Thursday, let's make some money. I have one play one time. Before you BET it, make sure you GET it. I am talking about being selective and finding real value. It's not how many you play it is how many you win. UTEP is at Tulsa. I like the OVER. See the cashier.

[Mr. IWS]

Rainman

3* W. KENTUCKY -1.5
1* UNDER w.ken/troy 55
1* ARIZONA ST. -22
1* TENNESSEE +6