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Insider Sports Report
5* Ohio St. -18
4* BYU/Notre Dame under 41
3* Auburn +7
3* Pittsburgh -9
5* Ohio St. -18
4* BYU/Notre Dame under 41
3* Auburn +7
3* Pittsburgh -9
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SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS A&M +3½ -105 over LSU
LSU has played two road games this season. At Auburn on Sept 22 they won 12-10. Two weeks ago at Florida, they lost 14-6. Last week, hosting South Carolina, they won 23-21. The Tigers will now play its third straight contest against a quality opponent and that takes a toll. The real kicker here is that they will host #1 Alabama next week and that figures to take quite a bit of focus off this one. In terms of situational betting, it doesn’t get much better than this for the Aggies.
QB Johnny Manziel and the Aggies have exactly the kind of offense that can capitalize on a defense that has to be a little gassed after back-to-back intense games. Unlike the Tigers, Texas A&M has a nothing game on deck next week, meaning all their focus is on the visiting Tigers. LSU doesn’t blow out quality teams. They are a methodical, low scoring club that plays field position and relies on the opposition to make mistakes. At its best, LSU can’t be trusted laying 3½ road points. With the Crimson Tide on deck next week in the biggest game of the year, the Tigers are more likely to be off their game than the Aggies.
Indiana +123 over NAVY
The Hoosiers won their opening two games but have dropped four in a row to drop to 2-4 on the season. On paper that record doesn’t look so good but a close look reveals four losses in a row to four very good football teams in Ball State, Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State. Three of those four losses were by four points or less.
Indiana's offense has taken flight in Kevin Wilson's second season, scoring 76 points the past two weeks against the Spartans and Buckeyes. Indiana is on the right track. They are much more battle tested than the Midshipmen and they appear to be incredibly well prepared each and every week. Against Ohio State they were a 19-point pooch and against Michigan State they were getting 15 points. They could have won both. The Hoosiers are hungry for a win and take a huge step down in class here.
By comparison, Navy was a 14½-point dog against Notre Dame on a neutral field and lost 50-10. They also lost at Penn State 34-7 and didn’t score a single point in a 12-0 loss to San Jose State. One of Navy’s three wins came against Virginia Military Institute. Now we get to take back a tag with the far superior team coming off four losses? Pencil us in.
TOLEDO +193 over Cincinnati
This is an angle we always look out for in that the Bearcats crossed the threshold this week and moved into the National rankings for the first time at #21. With that comes some extra accolades, more recognition and most importantly of all, an inflated price. The Bearcats 5-0 record comes after playing four cupcakes and a completely disorganized Pitt team in the season opener. They barely got by a weak Virginia Tech team and last week against FCS opponent Fordham, they were given a bit of a scare with a small lead for the entire first half before breaking it open in the second half. Against Delaware State, the Bearcats scored three points in the second half and won 23-7.
The Rockets lost all-purpose superstar Eric Page to graduation but are still explosive behind triplets Terrance Owens, Bernard Reedy and David Fluellen. This is a high-powered attack that will hit some long gainers on an aggressive Cincinnati defense susceptible to the big play. Toledo has had some big-time performances in the past and logged near-misses against Ohio State last season and Arizona in OT in this year's opener. The Glass Bowl is a tough place to play, especially at night, and this is Cincinnati's first true road game of the season.
It wouldn't surprise us to see Cincinnati struggle to handle its success. The Bearcats have a big game with Louisville on deck, they don’t deserve this billing, as they have really not proved anything yet other than they can beat some third-tier college football teams. Rockets outright.Comment
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Trev Rogers
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Oct 20 '12
12:00p Minnesota vs Wisconsin
Take: Minnesota +17-105 in 11h
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Oct 20 '12
12:00p Purdue vs Ohio State
Take: Total 62 ov-102 in 11h
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Oct 20 '12
3:30p Michigan State vs Michigan
Take: Michigan -9-110 in 15h
CFB POINT-SPREAD POUNDING: Take MICHIGAN
-9
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Oct 20 '12
3:30p South Carolina vs Florida
Take: Florida -3½-102 in 15h
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Oct 20 '12
7:00p Alabama vs Tennessee
Take: Tennessee +21-110 in 18h
Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-F Oct 20 '12
10:00p Washington vs Arizona
Take: Total 63½ ov-105 in 21h
College Football Total of the Year #2: OVER 63.5
points Washington/ArizonaComment
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ATS
October 20, 2012:
College Football Special for Saturday:
Product Name Quantity
*College Football Saturday Night Smash - 3 Big Selections: Kansas St. vs. West Virginia, Alabama vs. Tennessee & Baylor vs. Texas - 1.00
KANSAS ST. +3 OV WEST VIRGINIA
TENNESSEE +20 OV ALABAMA
TEXAS -8.5 OV BAYLOR
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The Chicago Sports Connection
Saturday October 20
3:30 ET
GAME #311.......... NEBRASKA -6 @ Northwestern
Huskers have been stewing for two weeks after the humiliation in Columbus...rested and ready to The Cats who haven't had a break yet and now play the toughest team on their schedule YTD.
3:30 ET
GAME #347-348...UNDER 40 BYU @ Notre Dame
Irish looking to throw a shutout.
No team has scored more than 17 vs ND this year...
...BYU involved in two VERY LOW scoring games this year....I wanna say 9-6...and a 6-3 game.
Get ready to be bored to death.Comment
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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
OHIO STATE -17.5 over Purdue: Allot of talk in the early part of the season was about how good the defense was of the Boilermakers, especially their defensive line, but this team comes in having been shredded in their last 3 games, allowing 529.3 ypg and 41 ppg over that stretch. During those 3 games this DL has been pounded for 288.7 ypg on the ground at 6.5 yards per pop.. Not good numbers at all when your about to face an Ohio State squad that has averaged 263.6 rushing ypg at 5.8 ypc on the year, including 309.3 ypg and 6.4 ypc in their last 3 games. Oh boy, will Braxton Miller and company have a field day in this one. On the other side of the ball we have a Purdue squad that has averaged 386.5 ypg and 32.8 ppg on the year, but away from home they have struggled averaging just 288 ypg and 17 ppg. I know that OSU has struggled with their defense of late, but after allowing 49 points last week to Indiana you can bet that Urban Meyer will be looking for a much better effort from his stop troops in this one. Ohio State really has nothing to play for this year, but Urban is trying to build for the future. Last week they had a big lead vs Indiana and nearly lost in in the end, winning by just 3. He will make sure his team stays focused and play the entire 60 minutes. Purdue will not be let back in this one. Ohio State by 25+ points in this one.
4 UNIT PLAYS
LOUISIANA TECH -30.5 over Idaho: I have had the pulse of the La Tech Bulldogs this year and they have been very good to me. This is a team that has an unstoppable offense as they come in averaging 538.7 ypg and a whopping 53.8 ppg. Last week they took on a Texas A&M team that had a decent defense and put up 57 points on them. La Tech has now played and SEC Defense a Big 10 defense and an ACC defense and have averaged 51 ppg in the 3 games. So what will they do vs an Idaho team that has allowed 55.7 ppg in their last 3 road games. In that stretch they allowed 63 points to an LSU offense that is having offensive problems and last week they allowed 38 points to a Texas State team that was averaging just 18.8 ppg vs FBS foes prior to that game. Even more troubling for Idaho may be their offense as they were able to put up just 7 points on a Texas State team that had allowed 35 ppg vs FBS teams prior to that game. Overall the Vandals are 111th in total offense (315.5 ypg) and 121st in scoring 14.3. Even vs a soft defense like the Bulldogs I just don’t see Idaho putting up enough points to keep this one close. La Tech is off their first loss of the year and teams in that situation usually struggle, but not this time. La Tech can still have a special season and will now turn their sights to a WAC title, so I don’t expect them to let down here. This one just has blowout written all over it.
7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK -- Wisconsin -9.5 & Texas -1.5
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
TENNESSEE +20 over Alabama: We all know how god the Bama defense is, but after Michigan who have the really played? An Arkansas team that was without QB Wilson, Ole Miss, a Missouri team that was a using a backup QB and Backup center and a couple of Sun Belt squad. This defense hasn’ t has not been tested by the passing attack they will face this week. This Tennessee offense has a lot of pop as they have averaged 4872 ypg and 38 ppg on the year so far. In their last 3 games they have put up 510.3 ypg and 39.3 ppg and two of those games were on the road vs a couple of solid defenses in Georgia and Miss State. The Vols have thrown for 299 ypg and should be able to move the ball on this untested Bama secondary. On defense the Vols are poor, but Bama is mostly a power running team, and that should eat clock and shorten the game which will not allow them to run away and hide in this one. The defense won’t keep this one close, but I believe it will be their offense that will have enough big plays to keep this one under the number. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play AGAINST Any team with a defense that allows 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in previous game. This play is 35-6 the last 10 seasons.
LSU -3 over TEXAS A&M: The Tigers of LSU showed a bit better offense last week vs a tough South Carolina defense. They are off BB tough games vs South Carolina and Florida, but this is still a huge game because they are not out of the National picture race just yet. A loss here though would knock them out. The tigers do have Bama on deck but they do have a week off after this one, so they will be fully focused for the task at hand. The Aggies do have the advantage on offense, but are clearly out matched on the defensive sided of the ball and I believe that will cost them here big time. The Aggie defense ranks 73 overall and 111th vs the pass and that could have Mettenberger looking at a solid day. The Aggie offense is 6th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense, but in their only game vs a defense of this caliber (Florida), they were able to put up just 17 points (0 in second half) and just 334 yards. Now they face a Tigers defense that is 2nd in the nation in total defense (219.6 ypg), 2nd vs the pass (130.6 ypg) and 8th in points allowed (14 ppg). It will not be all that easy for A&M to move the ball in this game. The team with the better defense should win this game and that is clearly on the side of the Tigers. They have momentum from last weeks win over South Carolina and have a week off before Bama, so look for a focused effort from this squad as they win by at least a TD.
Stanford/ California Under 49: The Cal Bears are starting to play much better, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they have allowed just 17 points in each of their last 2 games. The Cal defense has allowed 403 ypg and 26.5 ppg at home this year, but they will be taking on a Stanford squad that pays very conservative on the road, thus not scoring many points. Stanford has had just 2 road games this year, but they were both big games (like this one) and that has them playing conservative and they have scored just 13 points in each of those games. Overall Stanford has scored 21 points or less in 4 of their 6 games. The Cal offenses is starting to come around again as they have put up 74 points in their last 2 games, but they will be going up against a very tough Stanford defense in this one. Stanford had one bad defensive game, but if you take out the 48 points they allowed vs Arizona (In OT) then they have allowed an average of just 16.2 ppg in their other 5 games. Both of these defense are in fine form right now and I don't expect allot of points in this one. Look for high 30's at best in this one.
7 POINT TEASER --- Michigan/ Michigan State Under 50 & Florida State -14
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
BYU/ Notre Dame Under 40
Auburn +7 over VANDERBILT
Florida State -21 over MIAMI
1 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati/ Toledo Over 64.5
3 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY(12-4-1 +7.6 UNITS)
Play AGAINST any CFB road faves if they have a win pct of .600 or less and are off an OT win in which they scored at least 24 points in that win. Teams in this spot are 3-17-1 ATS.
Play ON Central Michigan +3.5 over Ball State.
Play AGAINST any college favorite who was 5-0 or greater, off its first loss of the year, if they were favored and allowed 35 or more points in the loss – and they won 9 or more games last season. Teams in this spot are 3-17 ATS.
Play ON Kansas State +2.5 over WEST VIRGINIA
Over the last 3 seasons, Notre Dame has gone 11-1 to the Under if they allowed 14 points or less in their last game.
Play Notre Dame/ BYU Under 40.Comment
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SB Professor Original NCAAF Picks
2 PM EST
340. UTSA +12*
7 PM EST
328. Duke +11*
(+10.5's everywhere but system recommends buy the 1/2 to the key number 11)
10:30 PM EST
367. Utah +10*
(+9.5's everywhere but system recommends buy the 1/2 to the key number 10)
Rest of Games:
343. Virginia Tech +8
316. Eastern Michigan +2.5
352. California +2.5
312. Northwestern +6.5
330. Maryland +3
357. Michigan St. +9.5
362. TCU +2
394. Buffalo +9
332. Toledo +5
337. New Mexico +11
396. UAB +2.5
391. Baylor +8.5
353. Washington +7.5Comment
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