10-21-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.


Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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THE GOLDSHEET

KEYS

OVER the total BUFFALO 33- Tennessee 24—Both of these sides
have been a bit bipolar, so perhaps we should consult Dr. Phil before
proceeding. But the Buffalo road map is easier to read. If the Bills can establish
their infantry, as C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson did last week at Arizona (165
YR), life becomes a lot easier for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose penchant for
picks grows exponentially when Buffalo becomes one-dimensional. And if the
ballyhooed but erratic Bills DL comes to play, the oft-disappearing act of
Tennessee RB Chris Johnson is likely to recur. Titans have lost by 21 or more
in four of six; Bills “over” 15-8 last 23.

NEW ENGLAND 37 - NY Jets 16—New England loves to beat its New
York rival, particularly in Foxborough, where the Patriots have won & covered
the last three regular-season meetings. So expect N.E.’s best vs. boastful Rex
Ryan, especially with the Jets diminished (no CB Revis, no WR Holmes). Key
Patriot TE/H-back Aaron Hernandez (6 recs. in Seattle) returned last week, but
N.E. rushed for only 87 yards. Look for something closer in this one to the 247
& 251 YR the Pats pounded out the previous two games. And the Belichick
defense (16 takeaways) is unlikely to make the same mistakes this week vs.
N.Y. as it did in last Sunday’s late loss in Seattle. The Pats saw Tim Tebow
twice LY (once in the playoffs) when Tebow was with the Broncos.

CHICAGO 34 - Detroit 19—Chicago has proven in its last three games
(9 ppg allowed, 10 sacks, 8 ints.) that it is no picnic for teams to play against the
Bear defense when all its key players are healthy. And, now, offensive
coordinator Mike Tice, QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, and LT J’Marcus
Webb all seem to be on the same page. Plus, RB Matt Forte has enjoyed
needed time to rest his gimpy ankle, and power backup Michael Bush (206 YR,
3 TDR) is well integrated into the attack. The Bears, eager to unseat the hated
Packers in the NFC North, can take another step in that direction vs. the
inconsistent, sometimes-underachieving Lions. Chicago is 9-1 vs. spread in
Cutler’s last 10 starts (the L was its Game Two fiasco this year at Lambeau)!
CABLE TV—ESPN

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Colin Cowherd's blazing five (20-10)
1. Washington +6
2. Pittsburgh +1.5
3. Dallas -2.5
4. Tennesee +3.5
5.Arizona +6.5

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Wunderdog Sports

Game: Baltimore at Houston (Sunday 10/21 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baltimore +7 (-120)

The Houston Texans were exposed big-time last week at home by a top level QB in Aaron Rodgers. The Texans were 5-0 and looking "Super" as in Super Bowl bound, but fell flat and hard. Their defense, considered one of the best in the league, fell apart with the surgical precision of Rodgers. Many were surprised by how easy he made it look, but there was a precursor to what happened. The Texans had only played against one top level QB and that was Peyton Manning who carved-up their secondary for 25 points, 330 yards, and two TDs. That means that the two top-level QBs have burned the Texans for eight touchdowns and 668 yards in two games for a total of 73 points! In fact, since last season when Houston's defense "turned the corner," the Texans are 0-6 ATS vs. great offensive teams (those like Baltimore that average 6+ yards per play). Enter Joe Flacco and his top 10 QB rating on the season, and a Ravens’ offense that has put up nearly 27 points per game and we are going to have a game here. Layered on top of that is the fact that the pundits have declared the "sky falling" on the Rvaens defense that just lost Ray Lewis. They are being told they can't be dominant without him. This is when teams seem to rise to the occasion and others pick-up the pieces. I expect to see that in this one. Teams with five wins that suffer their first loss tend to letdown, and are just 3-6 ATS as a favorite in their next game. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 13-4 ATS following an ATS loss. Baltimore shows up here. Take them with the points.

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Neil Larson

10* New Orleans

10* Dallas

+94 Dimes 59% in NFL this Season

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Ms.Charleen
12-5-1 69.4%

Cowboys-2
Saints-2
Pitt - 1 1/2

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Rico
12-6 66.7%

Cards +6
Pack - 5 1/2
Cowboys -2

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Hondo
7-11
Rams
Raiders
Bears

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Dave Blezow
1-5 fade away on his locks

Giants

5-12 for his 3 best bets

Giants
Bills
Raiders

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Steele Trap (phil Steele)
1-1 last week
7-5 year

Cowboys-2
Texans - 6 1/2

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Wildcat (ny post)
2-0 last week
9-3 season
Lions monday

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Accuscore
Written by Jon Lee

Free Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +4 at Oakland Raiders

The Jags were obliterated by the Bears in their last game being outgained by more than 300 yards. So why in the world would I be taking them on the road? Well, Jacksonville has oddly played its two best games on the road this year losing in overtime to Minnesota and beating Indianapolis. Each of their three home games ended in losses by at least 17 points.

Jacksonville is a terrible team, but they are unlikely to play so poorly against the Oakland defense as it did against the tough Chicago defense. The Bears did get two interceptions returned for two touchdowns which made that game look even worse on the scoreboard. The Jags are coming off a bye, and teams tend to play much better with that off week. The Raiders are probably the better team, but I’m not sure they should be giving more than a field goal to anybody at this point.

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans OVER 46 Points
Both the Bills and Titans have poor offenses, but that can be remedied in this game because both teams have bad defenses. Buffalo has the worst rush defense in the league while Tennessee ranks 24th against the run and 29th against the pass. Matt Hasselbeck gets another start for the Titans so I think that might actually help just because he will make the correct decisions and avoid unnecessary bad plays that Jake Locker might be more susceptible to. AccuScore projects this game to go over by just a hair, but the computer is a combined 10-1 picking the totals in games involving these two teams this season.

Washington Redskins +6.5 at New York Giants
AccuScore has gone 4-0 picking the Giants against the spread so it has a good handle on the defending Super Bowl champions. The computer has probably underrated Washington this season however going 2-4 ATS in their games as Robert Griffin has outplayed all expectations of him. The Giants are coming off a gigantic win at San Francisco, and might be flying a bit high in the NFC East. The Redskins are covering the spread 55.7% of the time, and at this point I am trending towards the underdogs in most NFL games where the line is more than a field goal.

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Football Lines That Make You Go Hmmm...
by Jason Logan

Will someone please check the pulse of the Dallas Cowboys?

There’s no way they’re still alive and kicking after having their hearts ripped out of their chests multiple times during Sunday’s 31-29 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

It was like that scene in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, when Mola Ram rips out that guy’s ticker and lights it on fire – except on repeat with the volume cranked all the way to 11.

Dallas took bettors on a roller-coaster ride in Week 6, covering as a 3-point road underdog thanks to a last-minute drive that brought the Cowboys to within two points. They nearly won the game outright after a successful onside kick, but poor clock management by the Dallas sideline led to a missed field goal as time ticked down.

It was a tough loss to swallow and one the Cowboys need to shake off before traveling to Carolina to face the Panthers as 1-point road favorites in Week 7. And it’s that spread that has America’s Team leading off our “Football lines that make you go hmmm…” for the second straight week.

This spread opened as high as -2.5 in favor of Dallas but is sitting -1 at plenty of online books. Breaking the odds down by betting basics, are we to believe that 1-4 Carolina – which has lost three straight before a bye in Week 6 – is just four points worse than 5-1 Baltimore?

While there are plenty of flaws with that logic, it’s safe to say the Panthers are just where they need to be in terms of the spread. Carolina may have only one win to its name (35-27 over New Orleans) but it’s played an uphill schedule, featuring an underrated Buccaneers team, the Saints, Giants, Falcons and Seahawks.

Dallas limps into Sunday, with starting running back Demarco Murray out with a sprained foot after such a dominant first half versus the Ravens. The Cowboys, normally a pass-heavy team, broke character and took to the ground, finishing the day with 227 yards rushing.

Without Murray, Dallas is left to wonder what kind of team it really is heading into Week 7. And, by the looks of the Cowboys’ recent spreads, oddsmakers are also having a tough time determining just what Big D is all about.

Here are some other spreads making football bettors go “hmmm…” heading into the weekend:

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+1, 46)

In the same vein as the Dallas-Carolina line, oddsmakers have set the Steelers as 1-point faves on the road in Week 7.

Pittsburgh is coming off a shocking loss to Tennessee, dragging behind it a handful of scrapes and bruises as well as an unflattering 2-3 record – all of those losses coming away from home.

More importantly, the Steelers have managed to cover in only one game this season and have been favorites in four of those five contests.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, has lost two in a row SU and ATS after a strong start including last weekend’s 34-24 defeat at the hands of state rival Cleveland as a 1-point road chalk.

Pittsburgh has dominated this AFC North grudge match, in terms of the pointspread, going 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these teams and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 travels to Paul Brown Stadium.

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY

Play Under - Any team against the total in a game involving two poor teams (outgained by 40-100 YPG), after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
81-40 since 1997. ( 66.9% 37.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NFL DALLAS at CAROLINA

Play On - Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (DALLAS) in conference games, off a road loss.
63-34 over the last 10 seasons. ( 64.9% 0.0 units )
4-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

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PREDICTION MACHINE

434 4:25 PM @OAK JAC -4 8.2 61.3% PP

432 4:25 PM @NE NYJ -10.5 13.4 59.4% PP

417 1:00 PM ARI @ MIN 6 -3.2 57.8% PP

436 8:20 PM @CIN PIT 2.5 0.9 57.3%

424 1:00 PM @STL GB 5.5 -2.8 57.2%

No O/U plays over 57%

437 8:30 PM DET @ CHI 5.5 -2.3 58.4% PP
438 8:30 PM DET @ CHI 47.5 42.6 Under 58.2%