10-21-12

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SB Professor Soccer Picks

Sunday 21st October
League: Italian Serie A
Match: Cagliari v Bologna
Kick Off: 06:30 EST – 11:30 UK TIME
Bet: Back Cagliari
Current Best Odds: 2.05

League: French Ligue Un
Match: Ajaccio v Bastia
Kick Off: 08:00 EST – 13:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Ajaccio
Current Best Odds: 2.50

League: English Premier League
Match: Sunderland v Newcastle
Kick Off: 08:30 EST – 13:30 UK TIME
Bet: Back Sunderland
Current Best Odds: 2.62

League: Italian Serie A
Match: Atalanta v Siena
Kick Off: 09:00 EST – 14:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Atalanta
Current Best Odds: 2.10

League: Italian Serie A
Match: Chievo v Fiorentina
Kick Off: 09:00 EST – 14:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Chievo
Current Best Odds: 3.37

League: Italian Serie A
Match: Palermo v Torino
Kick Off: 09:00 EST – 14:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Palermo
Current Best Odds: 2.25

League: Italian Serie A
Match: Parma v Sampdoria
Kick Off: 09:00 EST – 14:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Parma
Current Best Odds: 2.20

League: Italian Serie A
Match: Genoa v Roma
Kick Off: 09:00 EST – 14:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Genoa
Current Best Odds: 3.40

League: Spanish La Liga
Match: Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano
Kick Off: 10:00 EST – 15:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Espanyol
Current Best Odds: 2.00

League: English Premier League
Match: QPR v Everton
Kick Off: 11:00 EST – 16:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back QPR
Current Best Odds: 3.42

League: Spanish La Liga
Match: Granada v Zaragoza
Kick Off: 12:00 EST – 17:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Granada
Current Best Odds: 2.00

League: Spanish La Liga
Match: Osasuna v Betis
Kick Off: 13:45 EST – 18:45 UK TIME
Bet: Back Osasuna
Current Best Odds: 2.10

League: French Ligue Un
Match: Troyes v Marseille
Kick Off: 15:00 EST – 20:00 UK TIME
Bet: Back Troyes
Current Best Odds: 5.82

League: Spanish La Liga
Match: Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid
Kick Off: 15:30 EST – 20:30 UK TIME
Bet: Back Real Sociedad
Current Best Odds: 3.62

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NFL Trends & Angles - Week 7
October 19, 2012

Well, you cannot do better than perfect and our NFL Trends & Angles went 8-0 ATS on an individual game basis in Week 6, highlighted by outright upsets by Detroit, Buffalo and Green Bay and a near shocker by Oakland, who easily covered the spread!

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature, and many of them will point you to live underdogs and live 'unders' when we have total angles. So it should not surprise you that seven of those eight ATS covers were by underdogs. The eight was a blowout win by a favorite coming off a bye in Tampa Bay.

Unfortunately, the angle that did the best last week going 4-0 that says to take road underdogs coming off of a road loss does not turn up this week, so you have to wait until future weeks for that 64.5 percent long-term gem.

All of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Also, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.

We kick things off this week with one of those Good Team/Bad Team angles that did not show up in Week 6, and follow that up by last week's angles with updated records and this week's qualifiers. Here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 7, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005 plus the first six weeks of this season.

Play against any road favorite playing a Bad Team after it played a Good Team the previous week
(56-39-2, 58.9% ATS): Road favorites are usually up against it regardless of the circumstances, and when you add in the Letdown Theory that this angle implies, you have the makings of a very strong angle. This angle won the last time it turned up in Week 5 when the Colts upset the Packers outright.
Qualifiers: Carolina +1 vs. Dallas and St. Louis +5 vs. Green Bay.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (69-46-5, 60.0% ATS since 2005): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. It has not made much difference whether or not the team is now home (30-21-4 ATS) or away (39-25-1 ATS). This angle won its only play again in Week 6 when the Detroit Lions upset the Eagles outright.
Qualifier: Baltimore +6½.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (78-40-4, 66.1% ATS): NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle won its only play in Week 6 with Tampa Bay.
Qualifiers: New Orleans -2½ and Chicago -6 (Monday).

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (162-105-5, 60.7% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, Bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. They have apparently over-adjusted, especially when the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually know how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense. This angle won its only play in Week 6 with Denver.
Qualifier: Detroit +6 (Monday), which clashes with a previous angle.

Play on any team that failed to cover the spread by 25 points or more in its last game
(75-49-3, 60.5% ATS): The reason why this angle has worked so well over the years is a combination of professional teams not liking to be embarrassed and usually bouncing back strong, and the fact that bettors usually shy away from teams that just lost to the spread so badly, thus giving them inherent value the following week. This angle won its only play in Week 6 when Buffalo won outright.
Qualifier: Jacksonville +4.

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NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 7

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form.
Here are our quick-hitting notes on all of Week 7's action.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-5.5, 50.5)

Rookies Albert Morris and Robert Griffin III have Washington ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing, averaging 166.0 yards. However, The Redskins rank last in the league in pass defense, allowing an average of 328.3 yards per game through the air. The stop unit has yet to hold an opponent under 22 points and may be without S Jordan Pugh (concussion) this week. The Giants defense came up huge in the 26-3 upset over San Francisco last week, intercepting Alex Smith three times, while sacking the QB six times. New York is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 40)

John Skelton returns to his role as starting QB this week after Kevin Kolb sustained a rib injury in Arizona's 19-16 overtime loss to Buffalo last week. The Vikings were allowing only 15.5 points per game before getting thrashed 38-26 by the Redskins in Week 7. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (1, 45.5)

Dallas is looking to rebound from a 31-29 loss at Baltimore in which Dan Bailey missed a 51-yard field goal with two seconds left. The Cowboys also lost RB DeMarco Murray to a foot injury last week. Felix Jones could get the majority of the carries, with Murray missing practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. The Panthers are coming off a bye week and have dropped eight consecutive meetings with Dallas. Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 49.5)

The Saints could get a big boost on defense with the return of LB Jonathan Vilma, who is getting a one-week reprieve from the bounty scandal before the commissioner rules on the appeal of his suspension. The news isn’t as good on offense as tight end Jimmy Graham is questionable with an ankle injury. Quarterback Josh Freeman and the Bucs set season highs with 145 yards rushing and 318 yards passing in last week’s win 38-10 over Kansas City. Freeman has flourished after a dismal start, completing 60 percent of his passes for 627 yards with four TDs and two picks in his last two games. The teams have played under the total in seven consecutive meetings.

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (5, 45.5)

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers made a loud statement last week to those predicting the team's demise, dominating the previously unbeaten Houston Texans behind six touchdown passes from the league's reigning MVP. The Rams are coming off a three-point loss in Miami but they have already surpassed last season's victory total behind a defense that has surrendered only 33 points in the last three weeks. The Packers beat the Rams 24-3 last season and have won the last three meetings by a combined 93-34 margin. The favorite is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-6.5, 48)

Baltimore begins life without LB Ray Lewis (triceps) and CB Lardarius Webb (ACL), but reports are surfacing that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs (Achilles) has an outside chance at suiting up Sunday. The Texans’ sixth-ranked rushing attack was stuck in neutral and their defense was gashed for six touchdowns by Aaron Rodgers in a 42-24 loss to Green Bay last Sunday night. Arian Foster, the league’s second-leading rusher (561 yards), was held to 29 yards on 17 carries with a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 45)

Cleveland stopped a franchise record-tying 11-game skid with a 34-24 victory over Cincinnati last week as rookie QB Brandon Weeden threw a pair of touchdown passes and CB Sheldon Brown returned an interception 19 yards for a score. The win was the first since Nov. 20 for the Browns, who enter Week 7 having lost 10 straight road games. Indianapolis showed little fight in a 35-9 loss at New York. The Colts allowed a season-high 252 rushing yards and lost defensive end Cory Redding with a right knee injury. The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 46)

Buffalo went into Arizona and surprised the Cardinals in overtime last week, rebounding from back-to-back maulings in which the team was outscored 97-31. The Titans also bounced back from a pair of lopsided defeats in beating the Steelers. Tennessee has won four straight and seven of eight meetings with the Bills, including a 23-17 victory at Buffalo last December. The Titans and Bills rank 1-2 in the league in most points allowed with 204 and 192, respectively. The over is 4-0 in Buffalo’s last four games overall.

New York Jets at New England (-10, 47)

The Jets ended a two-game skid by returning to their “Ground-and-Pound” ways against the overmatched Colts last week, as Shonn Greene ran for a career-best 161 yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries in a 35-9 win. Tom Brady and company are fuming mad after blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in a stunning 24-23 defeat to Seattle – a loss that sent them to their worst start in seven years. The over is 5-0-1 in their last six meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-4, 43.5)

Jacksonville has the worst offense in the NFL at 13.0 points per game and is averaging 241.2 yards. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert leads the league's worst passing offense (142.8 yards) and his completion percentage of 54.8 is 31st. While Oakland's rushing attack is 29th in the NFL at 78.4 yards per game, a healthy Darren McFadden against Jacksonville's suspect defense could improve those numbers. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (1, 45.5)

The last thing the Pittsburgh Steelers need is another injury, but they got one when QB Ben Roethlisberger turned his right ankle in practice Thursday. Roethlisberger, though, will play when the Steelers try for their fifth straight victory over the Bengals on Sunday. The Bengals have hurt themselves with a minus-7 turnover margin, including minus-4 in the last two games. Cincinnati has salvaged just two wins in its last 11 meetings with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Cincinnati.

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DAVID BANKS

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET (CBS)
The Browns are coming off of their first win of the season 34-24 over the Cincinnati Bengals, although their spirits were dampened somewhat when running back Trent Richardson left the game with a rib injury. Montario Hardesty did rush for 56 yards on 15 carries in relief though, and more importantly, Richardson's injury was not deemed to be serious after the game. The Colts just allowed 161 yards to Shonn Greene of the Jets after he had been averaging less than 3.0 yards per carry entering last week's game. Cleveland can run the ball here vs. a Colts rushing defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry, while the Browns' defense can now defend Andrew Luck better with shutdown cornerback Joe Haden back in the lineup after serving a four-week suspension. The road teams are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.
LEAN: INDIANAPOLIS

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Ravens, Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET (CBS)
The Texans suffered their first loss of the season to the Green Bay Packers Sunday night, and the main reason was their great running game was rendered moot when Green Bay opened up a big lead. Baltimore was probably taking notes as the Ravens have gone to a no-huddle offense this year that is capable of scoring in bunches. The Ravens rank ninth in the NFL in scoring at 26.8 points per game and also ninth in total offense at 385.0 yards per contest. More importantly they have achieved balance with Ray Rice rushing for 482 yards on 5.0 yards per carry. As for the Texans, it is important that they establish Arian Foster and the running game early, although the Baltimore run defense is allowing only 3.9 yards per carry. The road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
LEAN: OVER

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Oct. 21, 1:00 ET (FOX)
The Cowboys gave it their all coming out of their bye week in Baltimore last Sunday, but they came up just short in a 31-29 defeat to the Ravens, failing on a two-point conversion after scoring a touchdown with 32 seconds remaining. That drops Dallas to 2-3 on the season, and the Cowboys can ill afford to fall to 2-4 if they want to have any hope of catching the red-hot New York Giants. They now get a chance to exploit a 23rd ranked Carolina total defense that is allowing 377.0 total yards per game. The Panthers are 1-4 as they come off their bye, and Cam Newton has regressed in his second season, throwing five interceptions and just four touchdown passes, and even with two weeks to prepare, he does not figure to have much success vs. the great Dallas cornerback tandem of Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr. Newton completed only 12-of-29 passes for 141 yards vs. Seattle last game, and Carolina is just 1-4 ATS the last five times they passed for less than 150 yards in the previous game.
LEAN: DALLAS

New York Jets at New England Patriots, Sunday, Oct. 21, 4:25 ET (CBS)
The Patriots unexpectedly fell to 3-3 when they blew a late lead in a 24-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week, thus wasting a 395-yards passing performance by Tom Brady vs. a Seahawk team that still ranks fourth in the NFL in total defense. After that performance in one of the loudest venues in the league, Brady must be looking forward to taking out his frustrations vs. a Jets' defense that is not nearly as formidable as it once was with Darrelle Revis out for the year. The Jets are coming off of a rare 35-9 laugher over the Colts, who seemed emotionally drained after an upset win over the Packers the previous week after learning that Head Coach Chuck Pagano has leukemia. Do not expect running back Shonn Greene to duplicate his 161-yard rushing performance here. Tom Brady is 18-8 ATS when coming off a loss in the last 26 occasions.
LEAN: NEW ENGLAND

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders, Sunday, Oct. 21, 4:25 ET (CBS)
The Raiders nearly shocked the world last week by knocking off the undefeated Atlanta Falcons, but falling just short 23-20 on a 55-yard Matt Bryant field goal with one second remaining has to be deflating. The loss drops Oakland to 1-4, and the Raiders may have a tough time getting back up for the perceived weaker opponent. And make no mistake, the Jaguars are a week opponent that is also 1-4 and is coming off of a 41-3 loss to the Chicago Bears. That was two weeks ago, so perhaps the bye week last week gave Jacksonville time to prepare a game plan to figure out how to best use stud running back Maurice Jones-Drew vs. a Raiders team that ranks 24th in total defense. Almost unbelievably, the Raiders are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. teams with losing records.
LEAN: OVER

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Norm Hitzges

DOUBLE PLAYS:

Dallas -2 Carolina

New England -10 1/2 NY Jets

Houston -6 1/2 Baltimore

SINGLE PLAYS:

Oakland -4 Jacksonville

Buffalo---Tennessee OVER 46 1/2

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GMC-NFL Selections 21/10/12

#421 Baltimore +7
#423 Green Bay -5
#427 Washington +6
#435 Pittsburgh -1
#437 Detroit +7
GL

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Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at San Francisco

The Giants are coming off a 5-0 win on Friday and look to build on their 10-2 record in Ryan Vogelsong's last 12 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. San Francisco is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (10/20)

Game 923-924: St. Louis at San Francisco (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.225; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.735 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

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Dave Essler - NFL TRIPLE (3*) G.O.M -ALL ACCESS


Dave Essler | NFL Side Sun, 10/21/12 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 430 TAM 3.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 429 NOS

Dave Essler | NFL Side Sun, 10/21/12 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 424 STL 11.5 (-110) 5dimes vs 423 GBP
Analysis: Two team, six point (-110) teaser. Just taking the six points gets us above the numbers we want. Plus, if the Rams co‹ver early, we have some hedge options available if we should so choose. Thanks as always for being with us.


St. Louis Rams +11.5 to Cincinnati Bengals +7.5


Dave Essler | NFL Side Sun, 10/21/12 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 420 IND -3.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 419 CLE




WEEK 7 NFL 3* EARLY STEAM BOMB !! - vegas-runner

vegas-runner | NFL Side Sun, 10/21/12 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 430 TAM 3.0 (-120) bodog vs 429 NOS
Analysis:


*** NFL 3* EARLY TRUE STEAM ***


BUCCS +3 (-120)....(3*)


TRUE-LINE = NOS -1





Bottom line, the Saints went into their bye off the 1st win of the season and bettors got a chance to watch it on a national stage which is why we've got an inflated line to work with. In fact, before the season started Cantor Gaming offered this game at NOS -4, which reflects a very slight adjustment since then.


With that said, there is NO way that any data supports the Saints are the same team we thought back in August that they may be (1-4)..and more importantly, the Buccs are actually better than my rating showed prior to the season.


So we have ourselves a simple case of an "over-valued" team that bettors have gotten so used to being one of the top teams in the NFL, against an "under-valued" team they've concluded as the opposite. The problem with that reasoning is that it's 2012, and this season both teams are not as the market "perceives" so let's get out ahead of it before the wiseguys do and extract most of the value.




3* Signature NFL BLOW OUT - JR ODonnell

JR ODonnell | NFL Side Sun, 10/21/12 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 430 TAM 3.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 429 NOS

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Jr's 3* NFL Game O Week - JR ODonnell

JR ODonnell | NFL Side Sun, 10/21/12 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 422 HOU -6.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 421 BAL
Analysis: At one PM EST two teams who see themselves as Super Bowl hopefuls meet, as the Baltimore Ravens (5-1 & 2-4 ATS) visit the Houston Texans (5-1 & 4-2 ATS). Ravens are not the Ravens of old, who for the last "nine" years have been a top ten defensive team, and a top "6" team eight times. This year they allow 397 yds/g and are ranked at #26. Two .500 teams Dallas and Philadelphia had 480+ yards against them. They will definitely have two of their better defenders (Ray Lewis & LaDarius Webb) out and possibly more, and even though last year's Defensive Player of the Year (Terrell Suggs) has been cleared to begin practice, it is unlikely that with a bye next week they will play him Sunday. Ravens do have an excellent runner in Ray Rice (482 yds & 5/c) but the Texans counter with Arian Foster (561 yds & almost 4 yds/c). Joe Flacco has been a little been more consistent this year, but still throws for 70+ yards less on the road than at home and has a 1 TD to 2 INT ratio away. Texan QB Matt Schaub has a #7 QBR 99.2 with 63% completion rate, and a bevy of good receivers. The big thing for the Texans is their defense that is #7 against the pass and #7 against th run, making them a top "3" defense overall. Led by JJ Watt they have "17" sacks and "7" INT, while the Houston OL has allowed only "1" sack in four games if you factor out the three GB got. Last year in the playoffs vs. the Texans, Flacco threw inconsistently and the Ravens only had 11 first downs and BALT punted "9" times. Texans have not allowed over 375 yards in any game and average 276 yds. Lastly Texans are 6-1-1 ATS vs. AFC, and 12-4-2 ATS in their last "18", while BALT is 0-4 ATS in their last four, while the Texans are 5-2 ATS after a loss.

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SportsBettingProfessor

Original System NFL Picks


1 PM EST
427. Washington Redskins +6*

4:25 PM EST
433. Jacksonville Jaguars +6*

8:20 PM EST
435. Pittsburgh Steelers -1*

Rest of Games:
422. Houston Texans -7

Thanks,
Rich

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NFL Betting Picks / Kevin

2 UNIT = Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders - JAGUARS +4 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.04 units to win 2.00 units)


The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a bye week after starting the season 1-4, including 0-3 at home. The Jaguars have lost to Minnesota, Houston, Cincinnati, and Chicago and beaten Indianapolis 22-17. Against the spread the Jags are 2-3, with both of those wins coming on the road. In Week 1 the Jaguars lost 26-23 in overtime to Minnesota as 3.5 point underdogs, and in Week 3 they beat the Colts 22-17 as 3 point underdogs. The Oakland Raiders are also 1-4 on the year, and 1-1 at home. They've lost to San Diego, Miami, Denver and Atlanta last week, and they beat Pittsburgh 34-31 as 3.5 point underdogs. The Raiders are 2-3 ATS, and 0-2 ATS as favorites. Last year the Raiders were 2-3 ATS as favorites, and 3-4-1 ATS at home. Oakland almost upset the Falcons last week as 9.5 point underdogs, as they forced Matt Ryan to throw three interceptions. This game features two struggling offenses as the Jaguars are dead last in the league with 241 yards per game, while Oakland is 19th with 349 yards per game. Oakland is averaging just 17.4 points per game (29th) while Jacksonville is averaging 13 PPG (32nd). Outside of the game vs Pittsburgh where Oakland scored 34 points they've scored just 53 points or 13.25 per game. Defensively both teams are struggling as well with Oakland ranked 24th giving up 386 yards against per game and Jacksonville 29th giving up 424 yards per game. The Raiders are giving up two more points against per game than the Jaguars at 29.6 per game (28th in the NFL). Take note that the Jaguars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Raiders are just 17-38-1 ATS vs a team with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing record. Last year the Jaguars won just 5 games, but one of those was a 17-3 win in Indianapolis after their bye week. With the extra time to prepare I think we see a productive game from Blaine Gabbert and a good game on the ground from Maurice Jones-Drew. After last weeks game in Atlanta the public will probably be all over Oakland at home this weekend against a Jaguars team that hasn't looked good, but I think Jacksonville matches up well with Oakland and will benefit from the bye week. Take Jags +4.


2 UNIT = Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers - PANTHERS +3 (-130)
(Note: I'm risking 2.60 units to win 2.00 units)


Dallas is 2-3 on the season with wins coming against the New York Giants and the Buccaneers at home, and losses coming @Seattle, vs Chicago, and @Baltimore. Although their win in New York to kick off the season was impressive the Cowboys haven't done much good since, including losing by 20 and 16 points as 3 point favorites. The Cowboys are 2-3 ATS this year and 0-3 ATS as favorites. Not covering as favorites isn't anything new for Dallas as last season they were 3-8-1 ATS when giving points. The Panthers have opened the season just 1-4 and have failed to meet expectations to date. Losses have come @Tampa Bay, vs NYG, @Atlanta, and vs Seattle, with their lone win coming at home vs New Orleans in Week 2. The Panthers are 2-3 ATS this year, but a perfect 2-0 ATS in games that they've been labeled the underdog. They were 3 point underdogs at home vs New Orleans winning 35-27, and they were 7 point underdogs in Atlanta losing by just 2 points and nearly winning the game outright. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS as home underdogs with Cam Newton as their QB. Despite Dallas giving up a lot fewer yards against per game they are side by side in points against per game with Dallas ranking 20th with 23.8 points against per game and the Panthers 21st with 25. The same thing can be said offensively as the Cowboys have out gained Carolina in yards by a wide margin, but the Cowboys are averaging just 18.8 PPG (24th) and the Panthers are averaging 18.4 PPG (25th). Tony Romo and Cam Newton are both having rough starts to the season, with Romo throwing 7 TDs but 9 INTs with a 82.1 QB Rating and Newton throwing just 4 TDs and 5 INTs with a 80.9 QB Rating. Take note that the Cowboys are coming off an emotional loss as they had their chances to beat a Ravens team that had a banged up defense, but a missed FG lead to a 31-29 loss. Dallas will now be playing back to back road games, while the Panthers enjoyed a Bye Week last week and had the extra time to prepare for a crucial game for themselves. The Cowboys are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a losing record, and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 vs NFC opponents. Th Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games coming off an ATS loss. Not many people are looking to back the Panthers right now, but as home underdogs coming off a bye week I think they have a good chance at winning outright. 3 is the key number here so shop around for it. If you can't get +3 at -130 I still like +2.5 at -105.


2 UNIT = New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - BUCCANEERS +3 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)


The New Orleans Saints are 1-4 coming into this game, but despite the poor record they are still getting a lot of support from bettors. New Orleans opened up the season with losses vs Washington, @Carolina, vs Kansas City, and @Green Bay, before beating San Diego last Monday 31-24. The Saints enjoyed a bye week last weekend. New Orleans is 0-2 on the road, 2-3 ATS, and just 1-3 ATS as a favorite.The Buccaneers are 2-3 coming into this game, including a 2-1 home record. Wins at home have come against Carolina and Kansas City, while losses have come @NYG, @Dallas, and vs Washington. As an underdog the Buccaneers are 3-0 ATS and 1-2 straight up (with the win coming as 3 point underdogs and the losses coming as 9 point dogs). Their latest victory came last week at home vs the Chiefs as they won 38-10 as 5 point favorites coming off of a Week 5 Bye. Last week was easily their best game as Freeman threw for 3 TDs, and Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount were productive on the ground. They also held Jamaal Charles to just 40 yards on 12 carries. The New Orleans Saints rank dead last in defense as they've given up an average of 456 yards against per game, while the Buccaneers are 25th giving up 387 yards against per game. The big difference comes with points against per game, as the Buccaneers are 12th allowing just 20.2 ppag while the Saints are 30th allowing 30.8 against. As expected the Saints are still putting up good offensive numbers with 402 yards per game (4th) and 28.2 ppg (8th). The Buccs aren't far behind in scoring averaging 24 ppg (16th). Drew Brees is 13th in QBs with a 90.7 QB Rating, while Josh Freeman is 19th with a 84.2 QB Rating. Take note that the Saints are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up victory of more than 14 points, and I think last week's big win over Kansas City was big for their confidence levels as a team. It is tough to win games on the road without a good defense and I think we will see that here on Sunday. Note that the Buccaneers beat New Orleans last season at home 26-20 as 6 point underdogs. I also took into consideration that facing a dome team the Buccs will have an advantage playing on grass. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Buccaneers move to 3-3 on Sunday. Take them +3.


2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals - BENGALS +3 (-125)
(Note: I'm risking 2.50 units to win 2.00 units)


2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals - OVER 45 (-112)
(Note: I'm risking 2.24 units to win 2.00 units)


Pittsburgh enters this all important division Sunday Night Prime Time match up with a 2-3 record, and they are just 0-3 on the road. The Steelers have lost @Denver, @ Oakland, and @Tennessee, with wins vs NYJ and Philadelphia. The only game the Steelers have looked good in was the home game vs the Jets in Week 2. They are just 1-4 ATS and 1-3 ATS as favorites. Last season the Steelers were 5-3 on the road, but just 2-6 ATS on the road. The Steelers last game was in Tennessee where they lost 26-23 as 5.5 point favorites. The Steelers suffered a number of injuries in that game and are banged up on the offensive line and on defense, including their star defensive player in Troy Polamalu. The Bengals are 3-3 on the year as they opened with a loss @Baltimore before going on to win three straight vs Cleveland, @Washington, and @Jacksonville. They have now lost two straight coming into Sunday Night's game vs Miami and @Cleveland last week. Andy Dalton threw 3 INTs last week which was the main cause of the loss to the then 0-5 Browns. The Bengals are 2-3-1 ATS, and 1-1 straight up at home. The Bengals were 4-3-1 ATS as underdogs last season during the regular season, and have started this year off 2-1 ATS as underdogs. Take note that the Bengals rank 10th in the NFL averaging 382 yards per game, while the Steelrs are 16th with 360 ypg. The Bengals are scoring 24.8 PPG while Pittsburgh is scoring 23.2 PPG. Despite being in the top half of the league in yards against per game, both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are giving up quite a bit of PAPG. The Steelers are allowing 23 PAPG (17th) while the Bengals are allowing 27.2 PAPG (22nd). Both QBs have been solid this year, which should help us get OVER the posted total. Ben Roethlisberger is completing 64.6% of his passes with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs for a 99.9 QB Rating, while Andy Dalton is completing 66% of his passes with 12 TDs and 9 INTs for a 91.7 QB Rating. Take note that on the road the Steelers are giving up 30.3 points per game. Last year we saw totals of 41 and 42 between these two teams, but I think these are different teams right now. The Steelers are injured on defense and all around have been soft defensively, while Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have looked like one of the leagues top QB-WR duos. Green ranks 2nd with 6 TDs and 3rd in yards per game as a receiver with 104.7. Take note that the Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 road games, 4-1 in their last 5 vs AFC opponents. The OVER is also 7-2 in the Bengals last 9 home games, 6-2 in their last 8 games overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 divisional games. Although the Steelers have had the Bengals number they haven't looked good this year and are facing a lot of injuries to some key players. Sunday night should be a high scoring and entertaining game, but I think the Bengals should be favored in this one. The line has moved since sending this out, but we got it at +3 -125 and I would recommend trying to get +3 closer to Sunday if you didn't get the wager in. Also take the OVER 45.

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Joe Nelson's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks

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Matchup: Tennessee at Buffalo Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Tennessee (+3.5 -120) Line Source: Bet Phoenix Posted on: October 19, 2012 @ 4:16:21 PM EDT The Bills rebounded from an embarrassing loss to steal a win in Arizona last week. At 3-3 the Bills are in a four-way tie in the AFC East despite being outscored by 55 points on the season. The Titans got a season-saving win last Thursday against Pittsburgh and no team in wild card position is better than 3-3, leaving the 2-4 Titans still relevant with the schedule softening up. Jake Locker is still doubtful but Matt Hasselbeck is very capable of leading this offense. The Titans do have the worst point-differential in the NFL but Kenny Britt and Nate Washington are both healthy now and even Chris Johnson has made positive contributions in recent games. Tennessee has had to play perhaps the toughest schedule in the NFL through six weeks and the Titans could be a play-on team in the weeks ahead as this is a better team than the statistics suggest. Buffalo is certainly a suspect favorite as the defense is vulnerable and the offense turnover prone. The Bulls have allowed 430 yards per game, more than the Titans and Buffalo’s strong rushing offense is misleading as the bulk of that yardage came late in lopsided games. The Bills have been out-rushed each of the last three weeks and Buffalo has been badly out-gained each of the last three games. Tennessee has won S/U in seven of the last eight meetings between these teams including last season and the Bills are 4-8 ATS the last 12 games as a home favorite. Buffalo could get caught looking ahead to the bye week and Tennessee has defeated two decent teams this season, beating Detroit and Pittsburgh, teams better than anyone Buffalo has defeated.

Matchup: Green Bay at St. Louis Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: St. Louis (+6 -115) Line Source: Wynn Posted on: October 19, 2012 @ 4:16:21 PM EDT The Packers finally had a big day on offense but there were a ton of breaks that helped the cause as Houston was very careless with costly penalties. It was also a very tough scheduling spot for the Texans. The Rams fell to 3-3 last week despite dominating the yardage against the Dolphins and posting big numbers against a Miami team that has been outstanding defensively this season. Missed field goals proved costly for the Rams but the defense has looked sharp the last two weeks after a rough start to the year. The Rams are 3-0 at home this season the Packers have been very inconsistent despite looking great on national TV last week. St. Louis has covered in five of six games this season and the Rams are 3-0 at home, beating quality teams Washington, Seattle, and Arizona. Green Bay is facing a third consecutive road game coming off a big win the Packers have lost two of three road games this season. Green Bay has the far worse defense in this match-up allowing over 340 yards per game and St. Louis has been a tough team to pass against, allowing just 203 yards per game on the season. St. Louis should also own the time of possession in this game which can open up opportunities for the offense in the second half when a thin Green Bay defense will wear down. Green Bay has been impacted by injuries perhaps more than any other team in the league with an extremely long list of questionable players this week Green Bay looks like a much more average team than the current valuation.

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Matchup: Washington at N.Y. Giants Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Washington (+6.5 -115) Line Source: The Greek Posted on: October 19, 2012 @ 4:16:21 PM EDT Robert Griffin played last week and played well as the Redskins reached 3-3 with an impressive win over Minnesota. The Giants came up big in the NFC Championship rematch with the 49ers but New York is far less reliable in the home favorite role. Washington beat the Giants twice last season and these teams are tied as the highest scoring teams in the NFC through six weeks. Washington is the far better rushing team and both teams have poor defensive numbers. Everyone assumes New York has a great defense and the line does have great players but this team is allowing 363 yards per game on the season. Washington has had a far better rush defense this season allowing only 88 yards per game and both teams have struggled against the pass. The schedule for the Giants has been favorable and New York has struggled in all three home games this year, losing to the Cowboys, needing a miracle comeback against Tampa Bay and struggling to pull away against Cleveland. There is an overreaction to last week’s big win for the Giants and New York seems to play to its competition. A division game underdog can strike in this match-up as Washington has played nothing but close games. The losses have all come by seven or less and last week’s win over a good Minnesota team was impressive. Washington has also won on the road twice already this season and the Giants are 8-15-2 as a home favorite since 2009.

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Dallas at Carolina Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Under (46.0 -107) Line Source: Sportbet.com Posted on: October 19, 2012 @ 4:16:21 PM EDT The Cowboys played well in a tough environment last week but there are no moral victories in a tough NFC East where Dallas resides in last place. These have been two of the lowest scoring teams in the NFL on the season and while Dallas has been strong defensively the Panthers have struggled. That could change this week coming out of the bye week. Look no further than last week’s results to see an impact with Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay all playing extremely well defensively. Dallas did allow 31 points off the bye week but the Ravens were held to just over 300 yards. Dallas is allowing just 285 yards per game as one of the top defensive teams in the league and the scoring against the Cowboys in the last two games has been very misleading. The Dallas offense has been very inefficient however with penalties and turnovers a big factor, as despite 387 yards per game the Cowboys are scoring less than 19 points per game. Carolina is scoring just 18 points per game as well and off the bye week the focus has to be running the ball, controlling the clock and avoiding risky plays for Cam Newton. Carolina is a much better team playing with a lead than playing from behind and the Panthers know they can’t win if they continue to allow big scoring, surrendering 25 points per game on the season. This is a second straight road game with long travel for the Cowboys and this is a make-or-break game for the Panthers. With DeMarco Murray out of action the Cowboys could become more one-dimensional and Dallas has a history of playing to the level of its competition. The ‘under’ has hit in five straight Dallas games playing losing teams and Carolina should look improved on defense this week.

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Stephen Nover's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Green Bay at St. Louis Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Green Bay (-5 -110) Line Source: 5dimes Posted on: October 17, 2012 @ 4:23:22 PM EDT The Packers finally are getting it together. Aaron Rodgers is heating up. The Rams are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season, but they've been playing way above their heads. This isn't going to continue. Kudos to Jeff Fisher, but the reality is the Rams may have the worst offensive line in the NFL and not one of their wide receivers is starting quality with Danny Amendola out. They aren't going to be able to keep up with Green Bay's high-powered offense, which is even better on carpet. The Packers are 20-8-1 ATS on the road versus foes with a winning home record.

Matchup: Arizona at Minnesota Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Arizona (+7 -120) Line Source: Heritage Posted on: October 19, 2012 @ 3:12:51 PM EDT Minnesota is improved, but the Vikings are not a full touchdown better than Arizona. The line is climbing because backup John Skelton is the Cardinals' starting quarterback replacing injured Kevin Kolb. Two things about this. First, the Cardinals win with their excellent defense. Second, Skelton is the Cardinals' most effective quarterback. He beat out Kolb during preseason, but got hurt allowing Kolb to take over the starting spot. Skelton has better chemistry and statistics with Larry Fitzgerald, who is the Cardinals' key playmaker. It's easy to rip Skelton, but the Cardinals were 5-2 last year during his starts. Two of those victories were against the Eagles and 49ers, teams better than the Vikings. The Cardinals are not considered a good road team, yet they are 4-3 ATS in their last seven away matchups. Earlier this season they upset the Patriots on the road holding New England to its lowest point total of the season in a 20-18 victory. Last year, the Cardinals beat the Eagles on the road and should have beaten the Ravens in Baltimore losing 30-27 after leading 24-6. The Cardinals have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been a 'dog while the Vikings are 2-7 ATS when favored.

Matchup: Jacksonville at Oakland Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun) Play: Jacksonville (+4.5 -105) Line Source: CarbonSports Posted on: October 19, 2012 @ 2:49:39 PM EDT The Jaguars have had two weeks to stew and be embarrassed about a 41-3 home loss to the Bears. The Jaguars are making the long trip to the West Coast, but that is negated by being idle last week. As bad as the Jaguars are, they have covered both of their road contests beating Indianapolis and losing to Minnesota in overtime. The close loss to the Vikings is impressive considering how improved Minnesota is. The Raiders aren't very good either. They have been terrible as a home favorite failing to cover 16 of the last 20 times in that role. Even the Jaguars should be able to pass on the Raiders' depleted secondary, especially with extra time to put in some added wrinkles.

Member Plays

Matchup: New Orleans at Tampa Bay Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun) Play: New Orleans (-2.5 -120) Line Source: 5dimes Posted on: October 17, 2012 @ 4:31:58 PM EDT I'm not impressed with the Buccaneers. They've been outgained in every game except one. The Saints finally got their much needed first victory beating San Diego at home. The Saints have now had two weeks to rest and game plan for this matchup. Drew Brees remains in his prime and has too many weapons for the Buccaneers to handle, especially with cornerback Aquib Talib suspended. New Orleans isn't going to have a top-notch defense, but the Saints players are starting to get more used to the schemes and new system brought in by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Saints held the Chargers to 113 yards in the second half. The Buccaneers have a below average quarterback and ground attack. The Saints just need to pay attention to Vincent Jackson. The Saints will be able to handle Tampa Bay's offense while generating plenty of points themselves taking advantage of Tampa Bay's 31st-ranked pass defense.

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: N.Y. Jets at New England Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun) Play: New England (-10 -110) Line Source: The Greek Posted on: October 16, 2012 @ 12:25:37 PM EDT This is no contest. The Patriots have retained their high-powered offense - which is now even better with Aaron Hernandez back - while improving their defense, especially against the run. The Jets, on the other hand, have regressed. They are missing their best defensive player, Darrelle Revis, and lone playmaker on offense, Santonio Holmes. Mark Sanchez has failed to complete 50 percent of his throws in four of the last five games. The Patriots are in a foul mood after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead last week against Seattle. They are going to show no mercy to their hated division rival and their loud mouth coach, Rex Ryan. This is the Jets' first road game in four weeks. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road matchups. The Jets are run-oriented. They can't play from behind and their defense has regressed. The Patriots beat the Jets twice last season winning by an average of 15 points. New England is just as good this year and the Jets are worse.

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Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, October 21st

2012 Pro Football Triple Super Totals Parlay of the Year!!!!!
Cleveland/Indianapolis under 46
Baltimore/Houston under 48 1/2
Dallas/Carolina under 46

2-1 or Better or we'll email you Tonight's Steelers @ Bengals Winner Free of Charge!!!

Early NFL Bets Bets
Green Bay/St Louis under 45 1/2
New Orleans/Tampa Bay under 49 1/2

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Totals 4 You Selections for Late Sunday, October 21st

October's Sunday Night AFC Super Total of the Month!!!!!
Pittsburgh/Cincinnati under 45

Late NFL Best Bets
NY Jets/New England under 47 1/2
Jacksonville/Oakland over 44