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Dave Tuley......72.3%.......34-13 yr.........6-3 last wk.
Ariz+6.5..Cle+2..Bal+7..NYG-7..N.O.-2.5...Jets+10.5....Oak-4....Cin+1.5....Det+6
Ariz+6.5..Cle+2..Bal+7..NYG-7..N.O.-2.5...Jets+10.5....Oak-4....Cin+1.5....Det+6
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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
Oakland/ Jacksonville under 44: Last year these teams put up 69 points, but I don't expect the same thing here. The Jags offense is very vanilla and conservative and they will need to use ball control to keep an Oakland offense that has some pop, on the sidelines. Jacksonville averages just 242 ypg and 3 ppg on the year and should not be able to put up much on this Raiders defense that has played pretty good at home, allowing just 345.5 ypg. The Raiders offense has been explosive at times this year, but still they come in averaging just 17.4 ppg. The Raiders have gotten away from their run game, but they should look to establish that in this one vs a Jags defense that has allowed 163 ypg on the ground this year. That will certainly eat some clock. I expect both teams to run the ball allot which should keep the clock rolling. and keep this one well under the total. KEY TREND--- Jacksonville is 16-5 to the Under after allowing 175+ rushing yards in their last game.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Dallas -1 over CAROLINA: Last week the Cowboys really got their ground game going and vs a tougher defense then they will face this week. The Cowboys need the run to take the pressure off of Romo and I really look for them to pound the ball here Vs a Carolina defense that has allowed 127.4 ypg on the ground at 4.4 yards per pop.That will only open up the throwing lanes for this Dallas pass offense that has averaged 287.8 ypg through the air to put up some big yards on a Carolina defense that is 19th vs the pass, allowing 249 ypg. On Offense Carolina is 13th in rushing, but they will need to throw it here if they wanna keep pace with the Cowboys and that is not their strong suit. The panthers are just 22nd in passing and Newton has not looked that great after an impressive 1st year in the league. Today it won't get easier for him as the Cowboys have the top passing defense in the league, allowing just 181.6 ypg. Dallas is the better team here and they played a very good game last week vs Baltimore, but just came up a bit short. The Won't in this game as they have the better offense and better defense and should win by at least a TD. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any road team in a conference game if they are off a road game in which both teams scored 24 or more points. Teams in this spot are 31-9 ATS the last 40 times the situation came up.
7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK--- New Orleans +5.5 & Washington +13
3 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona/ Minnesota Under 40.5: Both teams are having problems protecting their QB’s and that should leads to allot of running in this game. Arizona doesn’t have a great running game, but they will need to run the ball to keep these Minnesota pass rushers from teeing off on Skelton. Even with their passing game Arizona is not really an explosive offense as they average just 4.6 yards per play on the year. Minnesota has an excellent running game behind Adrian Petersen and I look for them to use that running game allot in order to keep a solid Arizona pass rush from getting to Ponder. Both teams have a rather conservative style of play and that should translate into this game staying well under the number. I look for 31 points at most here.
NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over NY Jets: Gotta like the Pats here vs a team they hate and coming off a loss. The jets have played well last week, but the Colts are not the Pats. The Jet offense was better last week, but they still have problems how to use Tebow and that will lead to inconsistencies and you cant have that vs this team. You mostly must score an every drive and the Jets haven't been close to doing that this year. New York averages just 22.2 ppg and 184 ypg passing and number like that aren't good vs the Pats. New England comes in averaging 453 ypg and 31.3 ppg on the year and the fact that they can now run the ball (153 ypg) has made them so much more difficult to defend. NY Is already thin on defense, especially in the defensive backfield and they will have big problems trying to slow down this no-huddle speed offense of the Pats. New England is angry once again and you can bet that they will take their frustrations out on their hated rivals from New York.
HOUSTON -7 over Baltimore: Last week Houston got a wakeup call vs the Packers but they will bounce back in this one. Baltimore is being hit hard by injuries on the defensive side of the ball right now and last week it really hurt them vs the run as they allowed Dallas 227 yards on the ground. Now Arian Foster gets his shot at this defense and he is an angry back after being held to just 28 yards last week vs the Packers. Once the ground game gets going then Matt Schaub should be able to get some big plays downfield vs a weakened Baltimore secondary. On offense Baltimore can put up points, but this Houston defense is one of the best in the league and will bounce back after such a bad showing last week vs Green Bay. Look for Houston to get back on track vs a Baltimore team that just doesn’t have enough defense to keep this one close.
7 POINT TEASER--- Pats/ Jets Over 40.5 & Tennessee +10
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Cleveland/ Indy Over 45.5
Washington +6 over NY GIANTS
1 UNIT PLAYS
New Orleans -1.5 over TAMPA BAY
Tennessee/ Buffalo Over 46.5Comment
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LEE EARNEST
14-5 NFL RUN
Take Pittsburgh Steelers -1 over Cincinnati Bengals 1 Unit
I feel that Pittsburgh is being undervalued here given their slow start this season. The Steelers have been plagued with injuries to start the year and that has cost them a couple of game. However, this is still a more than capable team and even sitting at 2-3 to start the year they still have a very good chance to win their division and it is all going to start with this game. Pittsburgh has won the last 4 meeting with Cincinnati both SU and ATS and since 1992 they are an astonishing 16-5 ATS. Pittsburgh just seems to find a way to win against this team. Yes the Bengals are a much improved team over the last couple of season with the addition of Andy Dalton and AJ Green, but there are question marks on this teams defense that have arisen over their last two games seeing how they lost to both Miami and Cleveland. Pittsburgh is not a pushover team by any stretch of the imagination. They still have a stellar defensive corp ( even without Troy Polamalou ) and they have the ability to make big plays on offense. Given Cincinnati struggles on defense and with it being almost a "must win" for Pittsburgh, I'll back Pittsburgh at a virtual pick'em.
Take New Orleans Saints -2 over Tampa Bay Bucs 1 Unit
This is another game where I feel that the Saints are incredibly undervalued in this role, given their rocky start this season. Offensively this team is still the juggernaut that they were in years past, it is on the defensive side of the ball where this Saints team is falling short. Their defense is just in shambles and is bleeding profusely. They can't seem to stop anybody and they are allowing teams to run all over them with they themselves can't seem to run the ball at all. The Saints are averaging less than 80 yards per game on the ground and I think this is where people are going to mis-read this game. The Saints can't run the ball, but that doesn't matter because Tampa's defensive strength is in stopping the run. The area where they are weakest is defending the pass. the Saints can't run the ball anyway so I don't see why they would try very much when that plays into the defense's strength. Tampa is currently giving up an average of 300 yards through the air and that doesn't bode well when you have a passing surgeon such as Drew Brees in the backfield. Brees averages about 350 yards passing per game against regular competition. Against a weak secondary and pass rush he should have no problem finding his open receivers. The Saints got a taste of their first win of the season last week and I'm willing to bet that they want more. They themselves probably never figured that they would start the season 0-4 and with this being an important divisional game I'm going to look for the Saints to give the Bucs all they can handle. 2 points isn't too much to ask to cover.
Take Green Bay Packers -5 over St Louis Rams 1 Unit
For me this game comes down to the fact that St Louis doesn't have their biggest playmaker on the field in Danny Amendola. Amendola was approx 60% of St Louis' offense up until the point where he got hurt. When Bradford was in trouble he would simply loft the ball to Amendola anywhere on the field knowing that Danny gave him the best shot, Bradford doesn't have that type of security now. Amendola is a dangerous player and I don't know if a young team such as the Rams can overcome a loss like that, especially now when they have to face the pass rush of Clay Matthews.
Green Bay on the other hand will be looking to ride the momentum of their complete and total thrashing of what was supposed to be one of the best defenses in the league on their home turf, I'm talking about the Houston Texans. That Texans win was just what Green Bay needed to silence all of the doubters and critics who were whispering about how they thought the team was underachieving this year. That game showed everyone that this Green Bay can still play at the level that they were at last year. Laying the points on the road is always a tough thing to do but Green Bay is just the all around better team and should win this game by double digits. Lay the points
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DAVID BANKS
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3, 1-4 ATS) may be approaching desperation mode when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS) in a key division battle on Sunday Night Football this week at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Steelers are in third place in the AFC North right now behind the 5-1 Baltimore Ravens and these Bengals, and Pittsburgh can ill afford to drop to 2-4 while losing to a division foe. The Bengals blew chance to pull a game closer to the Ravens last week when they lost to the Browns 34-24, handing Cleveland its first win of the season.
The big story on the Pittsburgh side for this game is injuries, as Troy Polamalu is again out after reinjuring his calf in his first game back two weeks ago, and perhaps more importantly, running back Rashard Mendenhall was declared out yesterday with a foot injury, which essentially changes the Steelers' game plan. Pittsburgh had hoped to establish the run with Mendenhall in this game as he looked great in his only full game this season two weeks ago, but his absence probably means that Ben Roethlisberger will throw the ball close to 40 times, especially since third string running back Jonathan Dwyer will start with second-stringer Isaac Redman also out with a knee injury. With all of that being said, Roethlisberger has flourished in a gunslinger role the last couple of years with the running game down, and this season has been no different with Big Ben ranking fourth in the NFL in QB Rating at 99.9. He has passed for 1487 yards on 7.5 yards per attempt while completing 64.6 percent of his passes, with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He will also be passing against a weak Cincinnati secondary with Dre Kirkpatrick out, meaning that the overrated Terence Newman gets the start at cornerback as Nate Clements moves over to play out of position at safety. Big Ben can exploit that as long as he eludes a very good Cincinnati pass rush that is tied with Green Bay for the NFL lead with 21 sacks. Roethlisberger has made eluding rushers an art form though, as he probably has the best pocket awareness in the NFL.
The Bengals are 3-3, but are they really that good? Remember last year when they backed into the playoffs at 9-7 despite going 0-7 vs. fellow playoff teams and 9-0 vs. clubs with losing records? Well, their three wins this year have come vs. the Browns (1-5), Jaguars (1-4) and the Redskins (3-3) when Washington had five defensive starters out, and as mentioned, they even lost to the Browns in the rematch last week. Now Cincinnati ranks ninth in the NFL in total offense, but besides doing it vs. a weak schedule, the Bengals have become a pronounced passing team in Andy Dalton's second season, ranking eighth in passing but 21st in rushing while averaging just 3.9 yard per rush. The problem with that here is that Pittsburgh ranks third against the pass at 200.8 yards per game while allowing only 6,2 yards per attempt. The Steelers have been unusually vulnerable against the run allowing 4.1 yards per carry, but the overrated BenJarvus Green-Ellis is proving to be a bust as the starting running back for the Bengals.
Then there is the psychological advantage that the Steelers seem to have over Cincinnati, as Pittsburgh is 8-2 both straight up and ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings including a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS the last two years. The Bengals are also 0-5-3 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss.
Pick: OVER 45
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