10-28-12

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Denny the Dog @ Gaming Today

Sunday, Oct. 28

Patriots +7 at Rams: Show me the money! That’s exactly what both have shown their loyal backers so far. Both sides have only failed to cover the point spread twice. The Rams have a little more desperation for a win to stay in the NFC West race. The Patriots can relax now that they’re in sole possession of first place in the AFC East. RAMS.

Colts +3½ at Titans: It looks like Chris Johnson has decided to keep his mouth shut – at least for the time being – and start earning his paycheck. Colts haven’t won the money on the road yet this season and I don’t see their backers cashing any tickets here. TITANS.

Jaguars +12 at Packers: It’s difficult to bet against Aaron Rodgers right now. He’s not missing any open receivers and not many that aren’t open. Rodgers is connecting and I’m going with the hot hand to run up the score on the weaker Jags. Unsure of the status of Jones-Drew or Gabbert at press time. PACKERS.

Chargers -3 at Browns: I have zero confidence in this home dog, even if they do have a dawg pound at their stadium. Browns totally out of any divisional race – that is if you believe they were ever in one. Bolts are in desperation mode after blowing 24-zip halftime lead to the Broncos. Both coaches are on the hot seat. CHARGERS.

Falcons +2½ at Eagles: It’s the most interesting matchup of the weekend. Andy Reid vowed to blow the team up over the bye week and totally refocus the once proud Dream Team. This will be the Eagles first game with their new defensive coordinator. The Falcons have been surviving the last few weeks by the skin of their teeth. EAGLES.

Seahawks +3 at Lions: Seahawks have covered five of seven games. Seattle can give you a solid effort on both sides of the ball plus win money with lucky ball. That means having the referee signal TD in the end-zone with no time left on the clock, when your QB has actually throw an interception. And it’s also when the opposing coach declines a penalty to negate a safety and save a spread loss. SEAHAWKS.

Dolphins +2½ at Jets: I’m not sure how the Jets will react this Sunday after having their hearts ripped out at New England. I believe Rex Ryan will figure out a way to win this “must” game to remain in contention. The Jets nibbled the Fish for a narrow 3-point victory in Week 3 at Miami. I see a similar result on home turf. JETS.

Panthers +7½ at Bears: Cam Newton sounded like a hopeless QB searching for answers after the Cowboy loss. Instead of offering to bring a suggestion box to the next press conference and asking reporters for suggestions to turn things around, he should be taking responsibility. Hey Cam, get busy preparing for the next game and quit showing weakness on and off the field. BEARS.

Skins +4 at Steelers: You have to give Shanahan credit where credit is due. He has tailored a game plan for RG III to be effective nearly every single game. The Skins are in every game in the fourth quarter. They’re too dangerous to bet against. SKINS.

Raiders +1½ at Chiefs: I feel like I’m getting the better team plus the points. I know I have the better QB in Carson Palmer. RAIDERS.

Giants -1 at Cowboys: Dallas needs this game like Romney needs Florida. It’s desperation time in Dallas and I don’t see the W in the crystal ball for Sunday. The G-men have proven they’re the better team right now. I can’t bet against a team that crushed the 49ers on the road. And I can’t bet on a team that struggles to put teams away like the Panthers. GIANTS.

Saints +6½ at Broncos: I like Denver to win this game, but Drew Brees is too capable of putting up 28 to 34 points, in which case it would be difficult for the Broncos to cover. SAINTS.

BEST BETS: GIANTS, EAGLES, SKINS.

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Some peculiar NFL lines this week, look at Packers vs. Jaguars October 26, 2012 7:12 PM by Bob Christ



There are some peculiar lines this week, which usually are well-set traps.

For instance, what’s with the Packers being only a 14½-point pick against Jacksonville? Is it possible that the travel-weary, banged up Jaguars, a team with as bad an offense as the league has seen the past seven years, can keep up with defending quarterback Aaron Rodgers?

And then there’s that game in Philadelphia between the Eagles and unbeaten Falcons. That the Eagles are favored probably has a lot to do with the fact HC Andy Reid has never lost a regular-season game after a bye week. But this year he’s facing a team that has the best record in the league and also is on a bye.

Hmmm, just something to mull over. Also, here’s the weekly heads up about bye teams.

Last year teams were 4-2 ATS coming off a Week 7 breather and facing an opponent that played the week before. But in the nine years previous, rested teams were only 9-17 in Week 8 games, by far the worst mark for any bye week.

Thus, keep that in mind when considering Denver, Kansas City, Miami and San Diego.

Here’s a closer look at this week’s games:



PRO FOOTBALL SUNDAY, OCT. 28

New England Patriots (4-3) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-4)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT (game in London)

Line: Patriots -7 (47)

Facts: The Rams are following the overseas itinerary Tampa Bay used last year by arriving in London early in the week. The Bucs, 4-2 at the time, then lost to Chicago 24-18, triggering a 10-game losing streak. • The Patriots, who beat Miami 27-17 in London in 2009, arrived Friday. • In Super Bowl 36, NE beat St. Louis 20-17 in the Superdome as a 14-point underdog. • Rams WR Danny Amendola (questionable, shoulder) hopes to return. He was the league’s top receiver when hurt Oct. 4.

Analysis: The Patriots’ experience in global travel should play dividends against a team that likely spent too much time checking out Big Ben (the clock) and Buckingham Palace. St. Louis has shown vast improvement, but were somewhat exposed last week by Green Bay QB Rodgers in a 30-20 loss. Now comes Tom Brady. Plus, no team is better than getting QBs to fumble than the Patriots, so there’s a good chance Sam Bradford will have extra happy feet in the pocket.

Forecast: Patriots 28, Rams 14



Indianapolis Colts (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Titans -3½ (47)

Facts: In their Week 15 meeting last year, the Colts staggered the visiting Titans 27-13 as a 6½-point underdog, crippling Tennessee’s playoff hopes. Indianapolis had 205 rushing yards, second most the Titans yielded in a game last year. • Tennessee RB Chris Johnson had 195 rushing yards in a 35-34 win in Buffalo last week. That’s a significant upgrade for a team that totaled a league-low 117 through the first three weeks. • Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck keeps his job another week.

Analysis: Indianapolis RB Donald Brown (questionable, knee), who missed the past two games, was a full-go in practice Thursday and expects to return. In that upset victory last year, he had a career-best 161 yards on 16 carries. Also, the Titans were fortunate to escape Buffalo with the win, scoring on a fourth-down pass in the final minutes. The Titans also benefited from three short fields, a rarity considering they had none the previous four games. This week Tennessee will have to work harder for its points.

Forecast: Colts 23, Titans 20



Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Packers -14½ (45½)

Facts: The Packers are the heaviest favorites since the Ravens were a 16-point pick against Indy in Week 14 of 2011, winning 24-10. • In the Jags’ only game at Lambeau in 2004, they beat division-winning GB 28-25 as a 3½-point underdog. • Green Bay was 4-1 ATS last season as a home double-digit choice. • Jacksonville converted only one of 15 third-down tries last week in a 26-23 OT loss in Oakland. That was the worst performance by anyone since the Jags were 0-for-9 in Week 2 vs. Houston.

Analysis: It can’t get much worse for the Jags, who will be without last year’s rushing champ, Maurice Jones-Drew (out, foot), and have an ailing QB in Blaine Gabbert (questionable, shoulder). After all, even when healthy this offense was on pace to be the most anemic in the league since 2005. And then all the travel the past two weeks. Sheesh! Surely the Pack will be able to withstand the likely absence of WR Jordy Nelson (questionable, hamstring) and standout CB Charles Woodson (out, collarbone).

Forecast: Packers 30, Jaguars 9



San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (1-6)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Chargers -2½ (44)

Facts: The Chargers are in their first “jet lag” game. Since 2007, SD is 1-7 in the early Sunday time slot in the east. From 2003-06, though, the Chargers were 11-3 in this spot under old boss Marty Schottenheimer. • Browns RB Trent Richardson (questionable, ribs) was ineffective and benched in last week’s 17-13 loss at Indy. • San Diego is coming off back-to-back losses after blowing double-digit leads, including the Week 6 meltdown vs. Denver in which the Chargers squandered a 24-0 halftime edge.

Analysis: The Chargers aren’t what they were two years ago, when ranked No. 1 on the offensive and defensive charts, yet still didn’t make the postseason. Now those rankings are 24/13, but the team still is No. 1 in at least one category – fewest rushing yards allowed per game (71.2). If Richardson can’t/won’t carry the offensive load for Cleveland, the Browns could turn one-dimensional behind rookie QB Brandon Weeden.

Forecast: Chargers 24, Browns 10



Atlanta Falcons (6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Eagles -2.5 (46)

Facts: When these teams met in Atlanta in Week 2 of 2011, it was the only game the past three years in which both teams squandered double-digit leads. Atlanta won, 35-31. FYI: Philly QB Michael Vick threw an INT and fumbled three times. • Both teams are off a bye, just like in 2008, when the host Eagles beat the Falcons and then-rookie QB Matt Ryan 27-14. • Andy Reid’s Eagles are indeed unbeaten after bye weeks in the regular season since 1999, but that doesn’t count a 24-21 loss to NE in Super Bowl 39.

Analysis: Atlanta’s pass defense has been sensational this season, holding the league’s second and third-ranked QBs (Peyton Manning, Robert Griffin III) to their worst passer ratings of the year. The same for Philip Rivers. So, what does that mean for Vick, the league’s No. 27 thrower? On defense, the Eagles no doubt will bring added energy under new coordinator Todd Bowles, who was 2-1 as interim head coach in Miami last season. But it won’t be enough to rattle an Atlanta team that doesn’t make mistakes.

Forecast: Falcons 27, Eagles 23



Seattle Seahawks (4-3) at Detroit Lions (2-4)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Lions -2 (43½)

Facts: Both teams are feeling the scheduling pinch: The Lions, coming off a 13-7 Monday Night Football loss in Chicago, are 1-4 ATS on short rest under HC Jim Schwartz the past three years. Seattle will be in its first jet-lag game of the season. • All of the Seahawks’ losses have been by 7 or fewer. In their division-winning season in 2010, each of their 10 defeats were by at least 10 points. • The Lions have had only one first-half offensive TD, fewest in the league.

Analysis: Although Seattle’s Russell Wilson is the only one of the five rookie starting QBs with a winning record, he’s been largely miserable in road games with a passer rating of 55.6, including last week’s 38.7 rating in San Francisco. How bad is that? He’d have been better off statistically throwing all this passes into the upper deck. As for Detroit, that 13-7 loss was misleading. The Lions reached Chicago’s 13, 3 and 1-yard lines before self-destructing.

Forecast: Lions 20, Seahawks 10



Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Jets -2 (41)

Facts: For the fourth time in the past three years, the Jets are facing Miami after meeting the Patriots. After last year’s trip to New England, New York returned home to drum the Dolphins 24-6 as a 7-point pick. • In its Week 3 meeting in Miami, the longest game of the year (4 hours), the Dolphins rushed for 185 yards on 43 carries in a 23-20 OT loss. Other teams with 40-plus rushes this season are 11-2 SU, 12-1 ATS. • Teams coming off a bye and playing on the road this year (such as Miami here) are 5-0 ATS.

Analysis: Just about everything that could go wrong for Miami did in that Week 3 meeting. They blew a 10-point second-half lead thanks largely to two missed FG tries inside the 50 and a pick-6 thrown by Ryan Tannehill in his third game. Plus, Miami’s average starting field position was the 18, matching its worst launch point of the past 6 seasons. With a little better fortune, Miami should roll, especially if converting on 10 third-down tries again.

Forecast: Dolphins 24, Jets 20



Carolina Panthers(1-5) at Chicago Bears (5-1)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Bears -7½ (43)

Facts: The Bears beat the Lions on Monday Night Football 13-7, but didn’t cover despite a plus-4 turnover margin.• Chicago had 224 rushing yards in its 34-29 home win vs. Carolina last year (Matt Forte 205). On the other hand, Carolina had 543 yards of total offense in that game against a Bears defense that didn’t give up 400 in any other outing. • Panthers WR Steve Smith, a longtime Bears nemesis, had 181 yards on eight catches last year. In 2005, he had 12 for 218 and TD’s in a 29-21 playoff victory.

Analysis: Despite the Panthers’ awful start and QB Cam Newton & Co.. losing three stalwarts to injury– LB Jon Beason, CB Chris Gamble and center Ryan Kalil – Carolina should enter this game with a dose of confidence after watching tape of how it moved at will against the Bears last season. And now that Carolina’s GM has been fired, no one’s job should be considered secure. For this week, the Panthers overachieve against a Bears team with a beat-up QB (Jay Cutler, probable/ribs) on a short work week.

Forecast: Panthers 19, Bears 17



Washington Redskins(3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Steelers -4½ (47½)

Facts: It looks like third-teamer Jonathan Dwyer will be carrying the rushing load again for Pittsburgh with Rashard Mendenhall doubtful (Achilles) and Isaac Redman questionable (ankle). Dwyer had 122 yards in a 24-17 win over Cincinnati last week. Pittsburgh’s longest run of the season was 19 until his 32-yarder. • The Redskins and rookie QB Robert Griffin III are 3-1 ATS on the road this year. • Pittsburgh was 10-for-16 on third-down conversions last week to improve its NFL-leading success rate to 53.8%.

Analysis: The Steelers famously have made life miserable for rookie QB’s especially the past two years, going 6-0, allowing an average of 9.8 points a game and totaling 9 INTs. To make matters worse for RG 3, he’ll be facing a 3-4 defensive scheme for the first time in the pros. And he’ll be doing so at Heinz Field, where wind currents and fan noise can make for a lousy day.

Forecast: Steelers 23, Redskins 14



Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)

Time: 1:05 p.m. PDT

Line: Chiefs -1½ (41½)

Facts: Oakland is the only team not to cause an enemy QB to fumble. • Last season there were five games in which officials marched off 24-plus penalties. Two involved the Raiders and Chiefs. • There could be a Peyton Hillis (probable, ankle) sighting this week in the Chiefs’ backfield, which would complement RB Jamaal Charles. • KC is holding steady with the league’s worst turnover differential at -15. In 1983, the Raiders were -13 and won the Super Bowl.

Analysis: The Raiders have won five in a row in Kansas City since 2007, but otherwise have gone 11-29 in road games, so it’s hard to identify these guys as road warriors. Especially with workhorse running back Darren McFadden averaging only 3.1 yards a carry, a serious drop from his 5.4 average in 2011. Meanwhile, Brady Quinn will make his home debut as KC’s starting QB and he had to be salivating while watching Jacksonville score 23 points against Oakland’s defense last week.

Forecast: Chiefs 34, Raiders 24



New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m. PDT

Line: Giants -2½ (47½)

Facts: Dallas opened the year with a 24-17 win in the Meadowlands as a 3½-point underdog, with DeMarco Murray running for 131 yards behind a line spearheaded by center Phil Costa. Neither is expected to play Sunday. • Giants WR Hakeem Nicks (probable, foot/knee) missed the opener. In Dallas last season, he had 8 catches for 163 yards in a 37-34 win. • Dallas ’ Tony Romo has 8 TD throws and 9 INTs. The last Super Bowl-winning QB with a negative margin was NYG’s Phil Simms in 1986 (21/22).

Analysis: Dallas not only will be missing Murray and Costa (doubtful, ankle), but leading tackler Sean Lee as well. And it’s not like backup RB Felix Jones is sturdy enough to last through stretching. New York meanwhile, plays its best ball on the road and is unbeaten in the JerryDome, winning slugfests of 33-31, 41-35 and 37-34, which sort of makes that O/U total look low. The Cowboys shouldn’t expect to reach 30 this time around, though, if backup center Ryan Cook can’t hold his own.

Forecast: Giants 38, Cowboys 19



New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Denver Broncos (3-3)

Time: 5:30 a.m. PDT

Line: Broncos by 6 (55½)

Facts: Saints first-string interim coach Joe Vitt, his suspension over, takes over from Aaron Kromer, who is on a two-game winning streak. • QB Peyton Manning has led Denver on 14 second-half TD drives this season, compared with four in the first half of games. • This is the highest O/U since the Lions and Saints were at 59 in last year’s wild-card round. New Orleans won 45-28. • NO’s 347 first-half yards at Tampa Bay last week were the most in the first two quarters of a game this year.

Analysis: It’s a matchup that might be unfair. The Saints, who are on pace to have the worst defense statistically in league annals, will be going against a QB who might be the best student of the game in history. And, he’s had an extra week to prepare. As they say, what a waste of a good bye week. New Orleans, which gave up 513 yards to Tampa Bay last week, might never make Denver punt.

Forecast: Broncos 49, Saints 28



PRO FOOTBALL MONDAY, Oct. 29

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)

Time: 5:40 a.m. PDT

Line: 49ers by 6½ (37½)

Facts: Last year when Arizona hosted SF, the Cardinals won 21-19 despite a -3 turnover differential. Over the past two seasons, all other teams have a cumulative 1-30 mark with such a margin. • Arizona has yielded 29 sacks its past four games, three more than any other team has given up all year. • On Arizona’s last 10 short fields, it has only 1 TD and 3 FGs. • In SF’s 13-6 win over Seattle last Thursday, the Seahawks’ average starting field position was their 15. That’s the worst starting point for any team since the Steelers’ norm was their 15 at San Fran in 2011.

Analysis: Did the sprained finger on 49ers QB Alex Smith’s passing hand heal sufficiently over the team’s extended break? He’s not listed on the injury report, but his production has suffered the past two weeks as he’s dropped from No. 1 to No. 8 on the passer charts. Now he’ll be going against a unit that has the league’s second best defensive passer rating and will have the prime-time home edge. Considering the Cardinals held the Vikings to 43 net air yards last week, Smith could be in more trouble. But probably not enough to cost SF a victory.

Forecast: 49ers 16, Cardinals 14



Last week: 7-5-1 ATS, 9-4 SU

Season total: 47-54-3 (.465) ATS; 53-51 (.504) SU.

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Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today

NFL

Jaguars +12½ at Packers: Jags blew it late at Oakland and now face the lethal Rodgers to Jordy Nelson connection at Lambeau. Discount double check it. PACKERS.

Dolphins +2½ at Jets: The New England game was by far the best the Jets and Sanchez looked all year. Huge game for both sides in AFC East. JETS.

Redskins +4 at Steelers: Turnovers cost the Redskins a victory against the Giants. Big Ben finds way to win, but we believe in RG III. REDSKINS.

Saints +6½ at Broncos: Normally don’t like to play totals, but when you have Brees vs. Manning, we’ll sit back and root for TD’s. OVER.

Giants -1 at Cowboys: G-Men have had this one circled after losing to the Boys in season opener. Plus they love playing the underdog road warrior role. GIANTS.

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Accuscore

Four Star Plays

Patriots/Rams Over 47

Colts/Titans Under 47

Chargers/Browns Over 43.5

Three Star Plays

New York Giants -1

Saints/Broncos Over 55

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NFL Trends & Angles - Week 8


After a perfect 8-0 ATS in Week 6, our NFL Trends & Angles came back to earth in Week 7, going just 3-4 ATS on an individual game basis. We expect better results this week as three angles that did not apply last week are added into the mix, and they are replacing three angles that had no qualifying plays in Week 8.

As those of you that have followed us in the past know, the vast majority of our angles will be contrarian in nature, and many of them will point you to live underdogs and live 'unders' when we have total angles. So it should not surprise that the three fresh angles this week point to either underdogs or teams coming off of blowout losses.

All of our season-long trends go back to 2005, as that gives us a large enough sampling without going back too far to games that may pre-date certain changes in the game that may make using older games less than ideal.

Also, you will occasionally see angles that refer to Good Teams and/or Bad Teams, such as in our fresh leading angle. We are not using those terms subjectively in those contexts, but rather, Good Teams are defined as teams that have won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are defined as teams that have lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.

Here are our NFL Trends & Angles for Week 8, with all records being for the last seven seasons since 2005 plus the first seven weeks of this season.

Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (96-63-2, 60.4% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. It turns out that this week's qualifier is not so "dreggy" after all.
Qualifier: Redskins +4½.

Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (89-55-4, 61.8% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value.
Qualifier: Kansas City -1.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (129-71-5, 64.5% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, Bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. This angle went a scorching 4-0 the last time it turned up in Week 6!
Qualifiers: Jacksonville +16, Seattle +1 and Washington +4½.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (163-105-5, 60.8% ATS): The logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is restricted to conference game only as now facing a familiar foe lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe and what to expect on defense. This angle won its only play in Week 7 with Detroit. Qualifier: Seattle +1.

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (79-41-4, 65.8% ATS): NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle did the splits in Week 7 going 1-1. Qualifiers: Denver -6, Kansas City -1, Philadelphia -1 and San Diego -1.

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Falcons at Eagles: What Bettors Need to Know

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 43.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles had the bye week to get acquainted with a new defensive coordinator. Todd Bowles’ first test comes on Sunday afternoon, when the Eagles host the last unbeaten team in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. Philadelphia’s defense has not gotten much help from the offense and quarterback Michael Vick, who has committed 13 turnovers through the first six games and has had to fight off calls for his removal from the starting lineup. The Falcons rank fourth in the NFL with 17 takeaways and are strong against the pass. Quarterback Matt Ryan had a rough start before the bye against Oakland but is completing nearly 68 percent of his passes while guiding the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the NFL.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Eagles -3, O/U: 43.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and a 95 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 15 mph.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-3): Head coach Andy Reid is 13-0 after a bye week, the longest winning streak since bye weeks were introduced. But this time he has had to oversee a change on the defensive side of the ball after firing Juan Castillo and promoting Bowles from the secondary. The breakdowns on defense through the first six games were usually of the crushing variety, as Philadelphia squandered fourth-quarter leads in each of its last two setbacks. Castillo’s dismissal has helped deflect attention away from the offense during the bye. The Eagles rank 30th in the NFL in scoring offense despite sitting in the middle of the pack in yardage. Turnovers are the difference. Philadelphia’s minus-9 differential is at the bottom of the pack. Vick has been a big part of that and will be facing Atlanta for the third time since being released by the team following his arrest on dogfighting charges. The former face of the Falcons was knocked out with a concussion in the third quarter of last season’s meeting, a 35-31 loss on Sept. 18.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (6-0): Atlanta has benefited from a forgiving schedule and has had to eke out victories at home over Denver, Carolina and Oakland. Ryan threw all six of his interceptions in the three games before the bye but has done enough late in games to keep his team perfect in the win column. Ryan’s complement of targets will be a difficult test for Bowles and the Philadelphia secondary. Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones each have four touchdown catches. The Falcons’ weak spot is one the Eagles have the capability to exploit - rushing defense. Atlanta has surrendered an average of 143.8 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground and will likely again be without tackle Corey Peters, who was removed from the reserve/non-football injury list but has not been activated.

TRENDS:
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Philadelphia.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Eagles’ last six home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Falcons’ last five games overall.
* Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. With a victory on Sunday, Atlanta coach Mike Smith would pass Dan Reeves (49) for the most wins in team history.

2. The Falcons overcame a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter of last season’s meeting as Ryan threw four TD passes.

3. Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has one TD. He led the NFL with 17 rushing scores in 2011

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Giants at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (1, 48)

The Dallas Cowboys seemed to make a statement with a season-opening win over the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Since then, it has been the Giants making the statements on the field. New York enters the rematch in first place in the NFC East and riding a three-game winning streak. Eli Manning pulled off his 24th career fourth-quarter comeback in a win over the Washington Redskins last Sunday but will be taking on a Cowboys secondary that is the strength of the defense.

That unit is coming off a strong performance against the Carolina Panthers but could be under more strain with linebacker Sean Lee’s absence weakening the front seven. Lee, the team’s leading tackler, was placed on injured reserve after undergoing surgery on his toe. Dallas will be trying to beat the Giants at home for the first time since opening its new stadium.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Giants -1, O/U 48

ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-2): New York has taken three straight at Cowboys Stadium and Manning is 5-2 in his last seven starts against the Cowboys. But one of those two setbacks came in the season opener, when the Giants were held to 269 total yards and the defense was burned for a pair of long touchdown passes by Tony Romo. Manning tried for some fourth-quarter magic and managed to cut it to 24-17 with a touchdown pass but could not get the ball back in the final 2:36. That would have been plenty of time for the Super Bowl MVP, who needed only two plays to hit Victor Cruz with the 77-yard game-winning touchdown last weekend. Manning threw for 400 yards at Dallas in 2011, leading a pair of touchdown drives in the final 3:41 to pull out the 37-34 triumph. The New York defense had some trouble with Robert Griffin III last Sunday and has struggled to keep Romo in the pocket in the past.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-3): A win on Sunday would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker in Dallas’ favor and give the team a much-needed momentum boost with back-to-back road games at Atlanta and Philadelphia looming over the next two weeks. If the Cowboys survive this stretch, they will have five of the final seven games at home to pad their playoff resume. The thought of a playoff berth was far from reality in Weeks 4 and 6, when Dallas sandwiched its bye week by allowing a combined 65 points to the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys managed to tighten things up and get back to .500 against Cam Newton and the Panthers last Sunday, forcing a pair of turnovers and relying on Dan Bailey’s leg to win it. The loss of Lee could be crushing for the defense, which will shift Dan Connor into the starting lineup. Dallas could also be without starting running back DeMarco Murray, who has missed practice this week with a sprained foot.

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last eight vs. NFC opponents.
* Under is 5-0 in Giants’ last five road games.
* Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning needs three touchdown passes to break Phil Simms’ franchise record of 199.

2. Felix Jones will start in place of Murray. Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar could also see carries for the Cowboys.

3. Romo has posted a passer rating over 100 in each of his last five games against New York.

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Sunday Night Football: Saints at Broncos

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6, 54.5)

There will be more footballs than oxygen in the thin air of Denver when the Broncos host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. New Orleans, led by quarterback Drew Brees, has the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL, while Denver and Peyton Manning are fourth. The Saints have won two straight after an 0-4 start and welcome back interim coach Joe Vitt, who finished serving a suspension for his role in Bountygate. The Broncos enjoyed their bye week following a 35-24 comeback victory at San Diego on Oct. 15 and will try to take advantage of the Saints' NFL-worst defense which has allowed 2,793 yards through six games, the most in NFL history since at least 1950.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Broncos -6, O/U 54.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (2-4): Brees threw four touchdown passes in New Orleans' 35-28 victory at Tampa Bay last week. The Saints are trying to become the second team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to reach the playoffs after starting 0-4, but they'll have to become more balanced on offense. New Orleans is last in the league at 76.2 rushing yards per game. Remarkably, though, its one-dimensional attack hasn't led to Brees getting pummeled by opposing defenses. He has been sacked 12 times, tied for the eighth-lowest total in the NFL. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who is appealing his Bountygate suspension, played his first game last week after recovering from a knee injury and broke up a pass and had a knockdown.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-3): Manning, who has 14 touchdowns and four interceptions - three in the first quarter against Atlanta - has a passer rating of 105.0, well above his 95.2 career number. While Manning is the key to Denver making the playoffs, the secondary will likely determine whether the Broncos win Sunday. While 11-time Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey continues to play at the highest level, he will need plenty of help to slow down Brees and Co. Cornerback Tracy Porter, though, missed the San Diego game after experiencing light-headedness and a rapid heartbeat - symptoms he also felt prior to a seizure in August. Porter, who played four seasons with New Orleans (2008-11), has yet to receive clearance to play Sunday.

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in Saints’ last five road games.
* Over is 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 games overall.
* Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 8 games.
* Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.
* Over is 4-1 in Broncos’ last five games following a win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees and Manning last met in Super Bowl XLIV on Feb. 7, 2010, when New Orleans defeated Indianapolis 31-17.

2. Aaron Kromer, who served as Saints interim coach with Vitt gone and suspended coach Sean Peyton sitting out the season, returns to his role as offensive line coach.

3. Denver leads the series 7-2 and has won three straight, including a 34-32 victory in the last meeting in 2008 when Brees was 39-of-48 for 421 yards and a touchdown.

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NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 8

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Here are our quick-hitting notes on all of Week 8's action.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-14.5, 45.5)

Both the Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars will be without a key player when they meet at Lambeau Field. Green Bay will be without S Charles Woodson. The former NFL Defensive Player of the Year suffered a broken left clavicle in last week's 30-20 triumph at St. Louis and is expected to miss at least six weeks. The Jaguars, who have lost three in a row, will not have Maurice Jones-Drew in the lineup after the running back sprained his left foot on the first play of last Sunday's 26-23 overtime loss at Oakland and is out indefinitely. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1, 39)

The Dolphins suffered an overtime loss at home to the Jets last month after carrying a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter and missed a pair of field goals, including the game-winner in the extra session. Miami's last four games have all been decided by four points or fewer, including wins at Cincinnati (17-13) and against St. Louis (17-14) entering its bye. The Jets have been hit-or-miss at home, scoring one offensive TD in back-to-back losses to San Francisco and Houston while rolling up a combined 83 points in wins over Buffalo and Indianapolis. The Dolphins have played under the total in their last seven October games.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (3, 43.5)

The Chargers were accused of using Stickum - a banned substance - during their 35-24 loss to Denver on Oct. 15 and continue to be investigated by the NFL. San Diego also had extra time to think about how they blew a 24-0 halftime lead against the Broncos. Browns RB Trent Richardson had eight yards on eight carries last week against the Colts before being benched at halftime as he tried to play with a rib cartilage injury. Richardson said he intends to be ready for Sunday. The under is 7-1 in Cleveland’s last eight home games.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 47)

The Titans have been a sieve on defense, allowing a league-worst 238 points, but they eked out a 35-34 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week on Matt Hasselbeck's fourth-down touchdown pass with 63 seconds to play. Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long funk, rushing for 195 yards and two touchdowns in the victory over Buffalo. Johnson had been held to 24 yards or fewer in four of the team's first five games. The Colts have won six of the last seven meetings with Tennessee, but all but one of those victories came with Peyton Manning under center. The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.

New England Patriots at St. Louis Rams (7, 47)

The Rams lost a little zip in their offensive attack when receiver Danny Amendola went down with a collarbone injury in Week 5. Since then, QB Sam Bradford has just one TD pass and the Rams have lost two straight. Four teams have logged season highs in yards gained against New England, which has allowed an average of 338 yards through the air in its last five games. Remember, this game is being played at Wembley Stadium in London, England taking away home advantage for either team. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 43.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles had the bye week to get acquainted with a new defensive coordinator. Todd Bowles’ first test comes when the Eagles host the last unbeaten team in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. Head coach Andy Reid is 13-0 after a bye week, the longest winning streak since bye weeks were introduced. But this time he has had to oversee a change on the defensive side of the ball after firing Juan Castillo and promoting Bowles from the secondary.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-9, 43)

Chicago tops the NFL with a plus-13 turnover margin and has allowed a league-best 13 points per game, which doesn't bode well for Carolina and second-year QB Cam Newton. The Panthers have lost four straight and have been plagued by turnovers all season - their minus-6 turnover margin ranks 26th in the league. The bad news keeps coming for Carolina, which placed CB Chris Gamble (torn labrum) and LB Jon Beason (knee, shoulder) on injured reserve this week. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five October games.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-1, 43)

The Seahawks pulled off an upset of the New England Patriots in Week 6 but fell flat at San Francisco last Sunday, scoring a season-low six points. Quarterback Russell Wilson has two touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 58.9 completion percentage in four road games this season. Detroit turned the ball over three times in the red zone in Monday’s 13-7 loss at Chicago and did not find the end zone until late in the fourth quarter. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 46.5)

Pittsburgh, which is coming off its first road win, has won eight straight inter-conference games and Ben Roethlisberger is 14-1 at home against NFC opponents. And rookie QBs are 1-14 against Dick LeBeau’s intricate zone-blitz schemes since the 75-year-old returned to Pittsburgh in 2004. Redskins TE Fred Davis, who leads the team with 24 receptions, tore his Achilles' tendon in last week’s loss to the Giants. The Redskins filled the void Monday by re-signing eight-year veteran TE Chris Cooley, who was released in the offseason. The teams have played under the total in their last four meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 42.5)

Brady Quinn will make his second straight start at QB - and first since coach Romeo Crennel appointed him the primary option for the foreseeable future – when the Chiefs seek to end a three-game losing streak against the visiting Oakland Raiders. The Raiders, 0-3 on the road this season, overcame three turnovers and a 20-6 deficit to beat Jacksonville last week. Oakland is 31st in the league in rushing (76.8 ypg) despite having one of the most electrifying tailbacks in the league in Darren McFadden. Run DMC is only averaging 2.6 yards per carry over the last three games. The teams have played under the total in 12 of their last 14 meetings.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (1, 48)

Eli Manning pulled off his 24th career fourth-quarter comeback in a win over Washington last Sunday but will be taking on a Cowboys secondary that is the strength of the defense. Dallas knocked off New York in the season opener, 24-17, but may without starting RB DeMarco Murray, who has missed practice this week with a sprained foot. Felix Jones will start if Murray can't suit up. Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar could also see carries for the Cowboys. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6, 54.5)

The Saints have won two straight after an 0-4 start and welcome back interim coach Joe Vitt, who finished serving a suspension for his role in Bountygate. The Broncos enjoyed their bye week following a 35-24 comeback victory at San Diego on Oct. 15 and will try to take advantage of the Saints' NFL-worst defense which has allowed 2,793 yards through six games, the most in NFL history since at least 1950. Denver CB Tracy Porter, who played four seasons in New Orleans (2008-11), missed the San Diego game after experiencing light-headedness and a rapid heartbeat - symptoms he felt prior to a seizure in August - but could be cleared to play Sunday. The over is 10-1 in the Saints’ last 11 games overall.

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL SEATTLE at DETROIT

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, after the first month of the season.
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NFL OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY

Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=27 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points.
27-17 since 1997. ( 61.4% 0.0 units )

NFL WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH

Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON) excellent passing team - with a completion pct of 64% or better, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games.
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

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JOE WIZ

Over 41 Kansas City and Oakland

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Football Crusher
Washington Redskins +4 over Pittsburgh Steelers
(System Record: 21-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 21-26-4

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Soccer Crusher
River Plate + Boca Juniors UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 313-11, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 313-264-34

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Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, October 28th

2012 National Football League "Under" Total of the Year!!!!!
Indianapolis/Tennessee under 47

You Win or we'll email you Tonight's Saints @ Broncos Winner Free of Charge!!!

Early NFL Bets Bets
New England/St Louis under 47
Atlanta/Philadelphia over 43 1/2
Seattle/Detroit over 42 1/2
Carolina/Chicago over 43

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Totals 4 You Selections for Late Sunday, October 28th

2012 Sunday Night NFL Super Total of the Year!!!!!
New Orleans/Denver under 54 1/2

Late NFL Best Bets
Oakland/Kansas City under 42
NY Giants/Dallas under 48