10-28-12

[Mr. IWS]

fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Sunday

100* Play San Francisco +135 over Detroit (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

San Francisco has won 10 of the last 13 games and they have won 5 of the last 6 games vs. Detroit. San Francisco has won 36 of the last 52 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game and they have also won 40 of the last 63 games after allowing two runs or less in their last game.

[Mr. IWS]

Charlies Sports
500* Cleveland+3
500* Dallas+3
500* Miami @ Jets Under 39
30* Jets-1
20* Jacksonville+15
10* Tennessee+3½ (Free Play)

[Mr. IWS]

Bruce Marshall

Saints / Broncos Over

[Mr. IWS]

Joe Nelson's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays
Matchup: San Diego at Cleveland
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (44.5 -110)
Line Source: Caesars/Harrah's
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 3:16:42 PM EDT

The Chargers have had two weeks to think about the epic Monday night meltdown, blowing a 24-0 halftime lead against the rival Broncos to fall to 3-3. Denver had just 366 yards in the game despite posting 35 points as the Broncos had two defensive touchdowns. Teams coming off the bye week generally step up defensively and San Diego’s defense is allowing less than 340 yards per game despite allowing 66 points the last two weeks, facing explosive offenses in New Orleans and Denver. These are two of the weaker offensive teams in the NFL as San Diego averages just 330 yards per game and Cleveland averages just 324 yards per game despite these teams facing schedules that rank 28th and 30th respectively in difficulty. Cleveland has some of the worst numbers in the league defensively but they have had to play some of the better offensive teams in the league and at home the Browns have done a much better job, allowing only 21 points per game. San Diego has been out-passed in five of six games this season as this is not the prolific passing attack under Philip Rivers of a few years ago. The offense lacks elite talent at receiver and the running game has been inconsistent. Cleveland’s defense has played well the last two weeks, allowing just 24 points against Cincinnati and last week holding a good Colts offense to just 17 points. San Diego’s rush defense has been outstanding and while the Browns will likely pass more in this game if Trent Richardson is out of action, Cleveland will keep a safe game plan in order to avoid turnovers with the young offense. Neither team is posting great passing numbers so the weak pass defenses in this game won’t likely be heavily exposed. Both teams have also been turnover prone which could cancel out a few scoring opportunities. The is will be one of the higher totals in a Browns game all season and this number is inflated a bit based on high scoring results and three straight ‘over’ games for the Chargers but they have faced elite offensive teams in each of the last four weeks. Both defenses are better than the numbers indicate and value will be on the ‘under’ as San Diego heads to chilly weather in the Midwest.

Matchup: Seattle at Detroit
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Seattle (+2.5 -104)
Line Source: Catalina
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 3:16:42 PM EDT

This is not an ideal scheduling spot for the Seahawks facing a fourth road game in five weeks but the extra time off after playing the Thursday game last week should help to calm those worries. Seattle is a solid 4-3 team and while the Seahawks have only one road win on the season they have covered in the last two road games and were within five points in both road ATS losses, actually out-gaining the opponent in those narrow misses. Defensively Seattle is an elite team, allowing just 297 yards per game and incredibly just 15 points per game and Detroit faces a short week after failing in Monday’s rivalry game in Chicago. Detroit should have been shutout in the game as the only points came with 30 seconds to go and the Lions could easily be a winless team this season as they were lucky in both comeback wins this season, beating the Rams in the final seconds at home and catching breaks in an improbable comeback against the Eagles two weeks ago. Seattle’s offense is limited but the edge on the ground for the Seahawks should be substantial, posting 132 yards per game on the ground this season. Seattle has posted the elite defensive numbers and sound rushing statistics through a schedule that ranks as the 3rd toughest in the league. Detroit is posting 406 yards of offense per game but the Lions won’t get close to that mark in this game and much of that yardage has come late in games as the Lions have struggled to do much before the 4th quarter regardless of the score in the game. Detroit has been a heavily penalized team and a team that has struggled with turnovers which has caused the inefficiency in the statistics. Matthew Stafford has also been known to make poor decisions if he is struggling to find opportunities and against the best secondary in the NFL that could create some big plays for the Seahawks. This is a letdown spot for the Lions at home after a huge divisional Monday night game and Seattle is the superior team.

Member Plays
Matchup: Carolina at Chicago
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Carolina (+9 -120)
Line Source: bovada.lv
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 3:16:42 PM EDT

Carolina has faced a ton of heat all week and while the Panthers are 1-5 they have only lost by more than six points once. The losses have all come against respectable opponents and the last three losses have come by a combined total of 11 points, all against winning teams. Carolina is 0-2 on the road this season but the losses have come by just eight points combined. Chicago is rolling at 5-1 but the Bears have just one win against a winning team, beating 4-3 Dallas. Chicago has played a weaker schedule and the Bears have been great beneficiaries of turnovers, including five defensive touchdowns this season. The offensive statistics for these teams are almost identical with Carolina gaining 335 yards per game and Chicago gaining 337 yards per game. Chicago’s defense is allowing 228 yards per game in the air so the Panthers should have opportunities in the passing game and Chicago had a lot of trouble against Cam Newton last season. Chicago won 34-29 at home when these teams met last October but Carolina had 543 yards of offense compared with just 317 yards for the Bears. The Panthers missed two field goals in the game and Newton passed for 374 yards and rushed for two touchdowns while the Bears had just 93 net passing yards. This could be a classic flat spot for the Bears coming off a huge Monday night divisional game and this is a do-or-die game for the Panthers. Carolina has deserved criticism but this is a team that deserved to beat 6-0 Atlanta in its last road game and could expose the Bears for their weak early schedule.

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Miami at N.Y. Jets
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Miami (+3 -110)
Line Source: SportsInteraction
Posted on: October 26, 2012 @ 3:16:42 PM EDT

These teams met a month ago in Miami with the Jets winning 23-20 in overtime in a game that was pretty even statistically and Miami could have won if not for a couple of missed kicks. Line value is gone on the Dolphins as this line is similar despite the venue change to New York. The Jets are 2-2 at home this season with convincing wins over the Bills and the Colts but the Jets lost badly to the 49ers and Texans at home. New York also enters this game coming off one of the biggest games of the season, a narrow overtime loss against the Patriots. The Jets are also heading into the bye week next week and this season NFL teams have done very poorly heading into the bye week, understandable as players are making plans and arrangements for their time off and minimal practice under the new collective bargaining arrangements. Miami is coming off the bye week and this is a team with serious momentum. The Dolphins won but failed to cover in its last game and there is plenty to work on as the Dolphins were severely out-gained and frankly lucky to win against the Rams. Miami has won the last two games and the Dolphins are 3-2 in the last five games, with both losses coming in overtime. Miami has one of the best run defenses in the NFL with just 78 yards per game allowed and the Jets have lost three straight games in which they have been out-rushed. Historically the Jets have owned this series but Miami has actually covered in five of the last eight including winning outright in three of the last four trips to New York. These teams have very similar defensive numbers overall but Miami has been the far more productive offensive team. The Dolphins pass for 224 yards per game as Ryan Tannehill has looked like a future star and the Dolphins present great balance. Miami’s defense can be vulnerable against the pass but the Jets have a limited aerial attack with shaky QB play and a young inexperienced receiving corps. While this is not a great value play, the situation sets up well for Miami and the Dolphins simply look like the superior team talent wise given the current state of the Jets with all the injuries and Joe Philbin has quickly set a great tone for this team. The road team has covered in eight of the last 12 meetings between these AFC East rivals and Miami can make a case as a playoff contender with this win.

[Mr. IWS]

Insider Sports Report
4* Philadelphia -1 over Atlanta (NFL) Range: +1.5 to -3.5
3* New England -7 over St. Louis (NFL) Range: -5.5 to -9.5
3* N.Y. Giants -1 over Dallas (NFL) Range: +1.5 to -3
3* Detroit (Scherzer) -140 over San Francisco (Cain) Range: -125 to -165

[Mr. IWS]

National Sports Service
4* GREEN BAY -14 OVER JACKSONVILLE (NFL)
3* CHICAGO -9 OVER CAROLINA (NFL)
3* WASHINGTON +4.5 OVER PITTSBURGH (NFL)

[Mr. IWS]

TONY DONATO 100* NFL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR
Carolina +7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Purelock - Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

ATS
5 ATL
3 GB
3 Chicago

[Mr. IWS]

Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday October 28, 2012
$25.00*NFL Guaranteed Selection #1

#231 Philadelphia -3 +100 1PM Eastern

Line from CRIS

*Lines as of 305AM Eastern 10/28/12

[Mr. IWS]

SportsBook Breakers 5 Star Total of the Month

5-STAR Seattle and Detroit Over 42.5 - Much of the total in this games comes down to who you like and who you think can control the tempo of this game. In our case, we think its Detroit who is victorious. To do so, that means their passing game is going to get going here. Look for that to happen and for this one to head over.
Each offense here struggled in their last game as neither scored more than six points in their last game. Games are 21-7 OU since 1998 when both teams scored no more than 10 points last game and the total is at least 41 (points<=10 and opoints<=10 and total>=41 and H and season>=1998).

Seattle was a big dog last week as well, losing to San Francisco last week, 13-6. The Seahawks are 15-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since December 12, 1993 when not a 11+ point dog, after a divisional game where they were at least TD dogs (pIV and 7<=p:line and line<11 and team=Seahawks and 19931212<=date).

They covered that game with the late line of 7.5. The Seahawks are 14-0-2 OU (9.8 ppg) in database history in at least week 5 of the season after a non-Sunday game where they covered (p:ats margin>0 and p:day!=Sunday and week>=5 and team=Seahawks).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: DETROIT 31, Seattle 20

[Mr. IWS]

red suit

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lions/hawks over 42-

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence lts:
4* Philly-2.5
3* Arizona+7

[Mr. IWS]

VR 3* Max Bomb Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

David Chan
Kansas City, Over Denver