11-4-12

[poopoo333]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.


Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

THE GOLDSHEET

NFL

"OVER THE TOTAL" WASHINGTON 34 - Carolina 24—Perhaps it’s too
soon to completely dismiss Carolina, which came within seconds of a big upset
at Chicago last week. The Panthers actually haven’t been routed since losing
at home vs. the Giants in September. But Carolina is also spacing out its best
efforts, failing to cover two straight all season. RGIII already seems to have a
better feel for his surroundings than the moody Cam Newton, who ought to be
glad he’s not still at Auburn. Cam, however, can test the injury-depleted
Washington defense with some deep vertical shots. Note Shan’s Skins “over”
6-1 their last 7 at FedEx Field.

SEATTLE 26 - Minnesota 12—Seattle is 3-0 SU at home, all as an
underdog, with one victory thanks to the infamous replacement officials. But,
after two road losses, the Seahawks are happy to be back at CenturyLink Field,
where the fans are deafening, the defense is fierce, and the turf is often wet.
Those latter three elements figure to be problems for suddenly-struggling
Viking QB Christian Ponder, who has 7 ints. his last 4 games. Seattle offensive
coordinator Darrell Bevell held the same position for five years until joining the
Hawks last year. Host has the aggressive DB cover types to blanket Percy
Harvin, allowing the front seven to focus on Adrian Peterson and on keeping
Ponder dancing. Seattle 6-2 “under” TY.
(09-MINNESOTA -10' 35-9...SR: Seattle 6-5)

Tampa Bay 29 - OAKLAND 20—T.B. coach Greg Schiano has the
Bucs’ offense percolating (34 ppg last three). Rookie RB Doug Martin (543 YR)
providing quickness and power on the ground, while quality acquisitions WR
Vincent Jackson & TE Dallas Clark are giving QB Josh Freeman reliable targets
to go with holdover Mike Williams. And, although the T.B. pass rush needs
work, the back seven has three standouts in venerable CB Ronde Barber,
intimidating MLB Mason Foster, and aggressive rookie S Mark Barron. The
Raider pass defense (allowing 68% going into the K.C. game) is still a unit in
transition. Oakland 6-1 “over" last 7 home.


NBA

Philadelphia 101 - NEW YORK 94—Philly’s major offseason acquisition, C
Andrew Bynum, is iffy for this one, as he’s had more knee trouble during the
preseason. On the other side of the equation in this game, New York will be
without F Amar'e Stoudemire for a while as he is likewise recovering from knee
problems. Although the Knicks have won 7 of last 10 in the series, covering 8 of
those, Philly appears to have a much better supporting cast, as PG Jrue Holiday,
emerging G Evan Turner, vet G Jason Richardson (37% treys) and PF Spencer
Hawes offer more than Carmelo Anthony (shot just 36.5% vs. Sixers LY) and his
crew of bit part players. Doug Collins’ 76ers looked impressive in preseason,
while the Knicks might struggle until Stoudemire regains his health.

OKLAHOMA CITY 105 - Atlanta 90—Atlanta went into rebuilding mode in
offseason, starting with hiring of Danny Ferry from San Antonio to run the team
as GM. Depending on the results, it looks as if Ferry has done a pretty decent
job of dumping salary while maintaining a playoff-level talent pool. However, the
Hawks have 4 different starters from the crew that finished the season losing a
second-round playoff series to the Celtics and aren’t ready to match up with OKC
just yet. Even without super-sub James Harden, the Thunder remains a young,
athletic and intense crew that has a strong homecourt edge, and Scott Brooks
team figures to take another step forward this season. 11-ATL +6 97-90 (191)

LA LAKERS 96 - Detroit 94—After an 0-8 preseason with limited action from
C Dwight Howard (back) and a foot injury to Kobe Bryant, can’t see how one can
strongly back the Lakers. Unless HC Mike Brown has cleverly orchestrated the
situation to lower expectations (he did not), have to be put off by L.A.’s
underachieving mark as significant home chalk. The Lakers are just 23-50
against the number the last 3 years during the regular season laying more than
6 points at Staples Center. Granted Detroit is a franchise sadly lacking in
marquee players, and the Pistons were just 7-19 as a road dog of 4 pts. or more
last season, but until the Lakers show signs of playing effectively, they have to
be a go-against. 11-DET +5' 88-85 (OT-186)

[poopoo333]

NFL odds: Week 9 opening line report

We usually save our “Lines that make you go hmmm…” for later in the week, but Week 9’s Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints has everyone – from books to bettors – scratching their heads.

“This is a really tough game,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “The initial perception is that this is going to be a really good game, exciting with lots of scoring. But, in reality, it’s looking like a 17-14 game.”

Korner’s crew of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Saints -5. Online books opened the game as low as New Orleans -3. Regardless of the opening line, it’s safe to say Week 9’s marquee Monday Night Football game features the two most disappointing teams of the 2012 season.

New Orleans, hindered by all the offseason drama of Bountygate, is 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) and coming off an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday night. The Eagles are also limping into Week 9, falling to 3-4 SU (1-5-1 ATS) after a 30-17 flogging by the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.

“I’m lost on this game,” laughs Korner. “One team will have to win, in that case we’ll go with the home team.”

Korner was baffled by the betting patterns for the Falcons-Eagles game, which saw Philadelphia open as the favorite and draw action throughout the course of the week. He’s even more surprised that many online books have opened this week’s spread as low as a field goal.

Korner admits New Orleans hasn’t performed much better, but the Saints are far from the hot mess that has become the Eagles’ season.

Quarterback Michael Vick continues to limit the offense, which has scored just 17.1 points per game (30th in the NFL). Rumors are picking up momentum that head coach Andy Reid – whose job is on the chopping block - may look to backup QB Nick Foles in an attempt to save the season and his job.

“I think Reid’s time is coming to an end,” says Korner.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)

By now, we’ve all read the cringe-inducing stats regarding the Chiefs and their futility this season and you could make an argument that Kansas City is the worst NFL team we’ve seen in some time.

The odds for Thursday night’s meeting between the Chiefs and Chargers are teetering on double digits at some markets while others have this standalone game as low as Bolts -8.

Korner says two of his oddsmakers brought spreads of 7.5 to the table while others had it as high as 10. He’s suggesting keeping this number as high as possible and sent out San Diego -9.5, even suggesting a move to -10 or above.

“You don’t want to be cheering for Kansas City come Thursday night,” he says.

Korner is throwing out the Chargers’ 7-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns Sunday, believing the bad weather had a lot to do with San Diego’s lack of offense. Quarterback Philip Rivers went just 18 for 34 and finished with 154 yards and no touchdowns.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 47)

The Giants escaped a second-half collapse versus the Dallas Cowboys Sunday to improve to 6-2 and now return home to host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat up on New York’s NFC East rivals, the Washington Redskins, in Week 8.

Korner sent out the G-Men at -5 while online books are offering the defending champs as low as a field goal. He says people are thinking about New York’s dreadful second half in Dallas and forgetting the one important thing.

“New York won that game,” says Korner. “The Giants just plain win. For them to be 3-point favorites in Dallas, it should warrant them being bigger than 3-point favorites at home to a Pittsburgh team that isn’t the same ole Pittsburgh team.”

“It’s a really good game, and the Giants seem to always win these big games”

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 47.5)

Korner believes football bettors are getting a deal on the Falcons as 5-point favorites, after sending out the lone unblemished squad as touchdown chalk at home on Sunday night.

“This is cheap,” says Korner. “(Atlanta) has firepower, it’s explosive, it’s playing good defense. If they can handle Philly on the road, they can surely handle Dallas at home.”

Korner says a lot of the parlay money for Sunday will be tied into this Sunday nighter, making it one of the deciding games of the Week 9 slate.

[poopoo333]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, November 4

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DENVER (4 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 41-68 ATS (-33.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 106-142 ATS (-50.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 4) at GREEN BAY (5 - 3) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 145-107 ATS (+27.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (4 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 3) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 6) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (3 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 1) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 6) at WASHINGTON (3 - 5) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 47-80 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (6 - 1) at TENNESSEE (3 - 5) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (5 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 36-66 ATS (-36.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-62 ATS (-40.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2) - 11/4/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 4) at ATLANTA (7 - 0) - 11/4/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 5

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 5) - 11/5/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-110 ATS (+27.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-40 ATS (-25.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[poopoo333]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Denver at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Denver: 13-3 ATS after gaining 500+ total yards
Cincinnati: 14-4 Over vs. conference opponents

Arizona at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 9-2 Under in road games
Green Bay: 8-2 ATS off a non-conference game

Miami at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Miami: 15-5 ATS in road games
Indianapolis: 10-22 ATS at home off ATS losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 8-1 Over off a loss
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 12-3 Over as an underdog
Houston: 15-4 ATS vs. conference opponents

Carolina at Washington, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-1 Over as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Washington: 1-5 ATS as a favorite

Detroit at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 4-17 ATS as a road favorite
Jacksonville: 7-0 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games

Chicago at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 28-13 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
Tennessee: 39-18 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Minnesota at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Minnesota: 23-10 Over away off BB home games
Seattle: 9-2 ATS in home games

Tampa Bay at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Tampa Bay: 26-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Oakland: 11-24 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Pittsburgh at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 1-8 ATS off a home win
NY Giants: 12-4 ATS off BB wins by 6 points or less

(TC) Dallas at Atlanta, 8:30 ET NBC
Dallas: 6-0 Over after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Atlanta: 3-13 ATS at home off 3+ wins


Monday, November 5, 2012

(TC) Philadelphia at New Orleans, 8:40 ET ESPN
Philadelphia: 13-4 ATS away on Monday Night Football
New Orleans: 13-5 Over vs. conference opponents

(TC) = Time Change

** Week 9 Byes: New England, NY Jets, San Francisco, St. Louis **

[poopoo333]

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, November 4

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Arizona is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 10 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CINCINNATI
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. HOUSTON
Buffalo is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TENNESSEE
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Washington is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. JACKSONVILLE
Detroit is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Detroit is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games at home

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND
Tampa Bay is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Oakland is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NY GIANTS
Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games at home
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas


Monday, November 5

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

[poopoo333]

NFL
Write-Up

Week 9

Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)—Denver survived gauntlet of early season primetime games vs quality foes, now head into softer part of schedule after hanging 35/34 points on Chargers/Saints; they’ve won 12 of last 14 games vs Bengals, winning last three, all by 5 or less points. Broncos scored 14 TD’s on last 40 drives; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, losing to Falcons/Patriots, maybe two best teams in NFL. Bengals lost last three games before their bye, turning ball over eight times (-3); they’re 9-5-1 as home dogs since ’08, but covered just one of last four in that role- they’ve lost two of three at home this year, with only win against the Browns. Cincy is 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a post-bye underdog (4-11-1 SU in last 16 post-bye games). AFC North teams are 6-13 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-1 as home dogs. Three of last four Bengal games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)—Arizona is only third team to be 4-4 after starting season 4-0; they head east on short week after dismal showing in 24-3 home loss to 49ers Monday night. Redbirds lost last eight games in Dairyland, with six of eight losses by 17+ points, but they did win last series meeting, 51-45 in OT in ’09 playoffs, when Warner was their QB-- their last win in Green Bay was in 1947. Packers are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a pre-bye favorite; they sleepwalked past Jaguars last week 24-15, getting outgained by 103 yards- they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after being 15-7 from 2009-11. Cardinals scored 91 points in first four games, 36 points in last four (3 TD’s on last 48 drives); opponents are taking Fitzgerald away, and no other viable options have emerged. NFC North faves are 7-10 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of eight Arizona games stayed under total.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)—Back in May, no one figured winner of this game would hit halfway mark over .500. Miami won last its three games, allowing 12 ppg (3 TD’s on last 35 drives); they allowed 30-23-24 points in losses, 14 or less in wins- they’re 2-2 on road, and have been killing teams on special teams, with blocked punt/onside kick at Jets last week, just in first quarter. Colts won three of last four games; five of their last six were decided by 5 or less points, or in OT. Indy is 3-1 at home, with only loss when Jaguars hit 75-yard TD pass in last 2:00 after Colts had taken lead. Indy won last three series games, by 6-5-4 points, but that was in Manning era. Miami won five of last six visits here, mostly back when teams were AFC East rivals. AFC South home teams are 7-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Miami games and four of last six Colt contests stayed under total.

Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (2-6)—Baltimore lost 43-13 at Houston in last pre-bye game, outgained 420-176; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win 9-6 over woeful Chiefs, but Ravens won/covered nine of last ten post-bye games, so interesting to see if week off helped at all. Browns (+2.5) snuck past Chargers 7-6 in rain last week, their second straight home win; they’re 7-20 vs hated Ravens (former Browns), losing last nine series games, with six of nine by 10+ points. Ravens won first meeting 23-16 (-11), a Week 4 Thursday game, when Baltimore outrushed Browns 101-43 and threw ball for 337 yards, but now with Webb/ Lewis out for year, who steps up for their defense? Since ’08, Baltimore is 5-2 vs spread as an AFC North road favorite; Browns are 8-5 in last 13 games as divisional home underdog. Home teams covered three of first four AFC North divisional games. Five of seven Baltimore games went over the total.

Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)—Mario Williams returns to Houston as expensive flop for Buffalo, which allowed 35+ points in all four losses, including last game before bye, when Titans scored on last play to win weird 35-34 game. Bills allowed 17 or less points in its three wins, but Texans are 3-1 as home favorites this year, scoring 33.8 ppg at Reliant (11 TDs on 43 home drives)- they’re 18-12-3 in last 33 games as home faves. Buffalo is scoring 18.5 ppg on road, 32.3 at home; they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as road dogs- their last two games overall were decided by total of four points. Bills are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as post-bye underdog (5-2 last seven SU), Texans are 3-1 as post-bye favorites, but lost five of last seven post-bye games SU. AFC East underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, five of seven Buffalo games went over total.

Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)—This year’s most exciting rookie QB meets LY’s most exciting rookie QB; both teams are struggling, with Carolina losing last five games (last four by 5 or less points), Redskins losing three of last four. Panthers outgained Chicago 416-210 last week, but were poor in red zone (one TD, three FGs on four trips) and had 11-yard disadvantage in field position. Washington hasn’t held an opponent under 22 points this year- they’re 1-2 at home, with average total in three games, 58.0. Home side won last seven series games, with Carolina winning last two (20-17/33-20) after losing seven of first eight series meetings. Panthers are 0-5 at Washington, but all five losses were by 4 or less points. Five of last six series totals were 37 or less. NFC East favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Six of eight Washington games went over the total.

Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)—Detroit’s three wins this year are all by 4 or less points, with winning points all coming in last 0:30 or in OT; Lions are 1-3 on road, with underdog covering three of four games. Over last decade, Detroit is 1-5-2 vs spread as a road favorite (0-1 in ’12), but they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last nine games vas AFC teams. Jags have been awful at home, losing by 20-17-38 points (average score, 32-7); they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdog- they’ve scored five offensive TDs in last four games, with two of five drives on short field (16-13 yards). Jax ran ball for just 61.3 ypg in last four games. Home side lost three of four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 15 points; Detroit lost both visits here, 37-22 in ’98, 23-17ot in ’04. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-10 against the spread. Four of last six Jaguar games stayed under total.

Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)— Cutler played college ball in Nashville (Vanderbilt) so this is homecoming for him, after Chicago escaped with 23-22 home win over gritty Panthers last week (Bears were outgained 416-210); Bears have 23 takeaways in seven games (+12), and scored six TD’s on defense/special teams in last five games, hiding an offense that struggled in two games since bye (3.4/3.9 ypa last two games, allowing 11 sacks). Last three Titan games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; last week’s OT loss to Colts was first close game Tennessee lost this year- four of its five losses are by 23+ points. Expect Bears to try and run ball vs Titan defense that allowed 166-171 rushing yards the last two weeks. AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Chicago games, four of last six Titan games went over total.

Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)—Seattle been much better at home; they’re 3-0 there, allowing 14 ppg while upsetting Packers/Patriots (giving up only four TDs on 30 drives)- they allow 20.4 ppg on road (8 TDs/50 drives). Seahawks are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were on road); underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in their games this year- since ’05, they’re 22-12-1 vs spread as home favorites. Vikings are running ball for 105 ypg on road this year, 130 ypg at home- they had three extra days to prepare after bad home loss to Bucs. Minnesota is 1-3 when it allows 23+ points; they’ve given up 13-13-14 points in its their other wins. Teams haven’t met since ’09; Vikings won last two meetings, but lost four of six visits here. Six of last seven series games were decided by 17+ points. NFC North teams are 9-12 vs spread in non-divisional games. Six of eight Seattle games stayed under the total, as did five of Vikings’ last seven.

Buccaneers (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)— Oakland won six of eight series games; last loss was to Gruden in SB XXXVII ten years ago; Bucs are 0-4 in Black Hole, losing by average score of 35-13. This year’s Raiders are showing signs of life after 1-4 start, beating pair of stiff teams after encouraging 23-20 loss at unbeaten Falcons- they’re 2-1 at home, but both wins (Pitt/Jax) were by a FG- since losing that Super Bowl, Oakland is 8-21 vs spread when favored at home. Bucs had extra time here after encouraging Thursday win at Minnesota; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, as Vincent Jackson has proven to be valuable downfield target for Freeman. Bucs also ran ball for 134 yards/game in three weeks since their bye, so they’re getting better balance. NFC South road teams are 9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last four Tampa Bay games, four of last six Raider games went over the total.

Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)—Real life intrudes; anyone who lives in New Jersey has had a rough week. Giants’ prep here has to have been disrupted. That said, if Archie Manning hadn’t strong-armed Chargers into trading his youngest son to Swamp, Giants would’ve drafted Big Ben, and NFL history would be different. Home teams lost four of last five series games, with Giants winning last meeting at Heinz in ’08. Pitt won three of last five visits here, but haven’t faced Big Blue here since ’04. Giants are 1-3 as home favorites this year, winning last three games in Swamp by 7-14-4 points; they’re coming off pair of wins over division rivals Redskins/Cowboys- underdogs covered seven of their eight games. Pitt is 1-3 on road this year, allowing 31-34-26 points in losses; they’ve allowed only one opponent (Raiders) to rush for 100+ yards. Giants are 1-3 vs spread when running ball for less than 100 yards. Since ’06, Steelers are 11-20-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of last four Steeler games stayed under; three of last four Giant games went over.

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)—All three Dallas games since its bye went down to last minute, with Pokes losing two of three; loss to Giants last week was heartbreaker, rallying back from 23-0 deficit to take lead, before coming up just short. Cowboys are 2-2 on road; they’ve allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, 27+ in its four losses. Atlanta is NFL’s last unbeaten team; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-2-3 points- since ’07, they’re 20-9-1 as home favorites. Atlanta scored 23+ points in every game this year, 27-30-23 in three home games. Dallas is 16-8 vs Falcons, winning last two meetings, last of which was in ’09; they’re 7-5 on Peachtree Street, winning last two visits- their last loss here was in ’93. NFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.

Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)— Two desperate, struggling teams; could be Vick’s last chance to keep starting job- if he can’t move ball against defense that allowed 513-530 yards in two games since its bye, then rookie Foles could see action. Philly also had disruptions this week after hurricane; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in last 2:00 in Cleveland, hardly a green flag. Saints are putrid on defense but had scored 24+ points in every game until last week’s debacle in Denver, when they were outgained 530-252, with much of the 252 in garbage time. NO is 0-4 when it scores less than 31 points, but scary to back struggling visitor that recently canned its DC against Brees’ offense. Teams haven’t met since Saints won 40-22 in last meeting at Linc, three years ago; Eagles are 8-4 in last 12 visits here, 8-8 overall. NFC East road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

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Jimmy Boyd
5* (NFL) Chicago Bears -3.5 (+104)
4* (NFL) Denver Broncos -3.5
3* (NFL) Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)

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NFLBettingPicks / Kevin

2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = COLTS +8.5 and BUCCANEERS +7.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)

2 UNIT = Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans - TEXANS -10 (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 2.06 units to win 2.00 units)

2 UNIT = Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS -3.5 (+107)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.14 units)

2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals - OVER 47 (-112)
(Note: I'm risking 2.24 units to win 2.00 units)

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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 9
by Jason Logan

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 9:

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)

Cowboys’ slow starts vs. Falcons fast first quarters

The Cowboys play their best football when behind on the scoreboard, which has kind of been the way all their games are going. Dallas ranks 30th in the NFL in first-quarter points, averaging just two per game, and was outscored 13-0 in the first quarter of last week’s loss to New York.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has stayed perfect in the standings thanks to its strong starts. The Falcons offense is averaging 6.7 points per first quarter – fourth in the NFL – and the team has trailed after one frame only once this season, outscoring foes 48-13 in the first quarter.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10, 47)

Bills’ run defense vs. Arian Foster

Buffalo’s defensive line might as well have a turnstile the way opposing teams are rushing through it. The Bills rank dead last in the league in defending the run, giving up 176.9 yards on the ground per game. They were gashed for 195 yards and two scores from Tennessee RB Chris Johnson last weekend. Buffalo has given up nearly two rushing touchdowns per game this season, another NFL worst.

Foster leads the league in scores on the ground, rumbling into the end zone 10 times and sits fifth in total rushing yards with 659. He’ll have plenty of fuel in the tank after a bye which followed a 98-yard, two-score performance against Baltimore in Week 7.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 38.5)

Sheltered Vikes vs. Soggy CenturyLink Field

Surprise, surprise. The extended forecast is calling for rain in Seattle. There’s a 50 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures are expected to slip into the low 50s. Add to that environment the always-boisterous “12th Man” at CenturyLink Field, and the Vikes are in hostile territory in Week 9.

That shouldn’t phase a bunch of tough guys from Minnesota, except for the fact the Vikings are sheltered under the cozy confines of the Metrodome most weeks. Minnesota has played just one outdoor game this season – a 38-28 loss at Washington – and is 1-2 SU and ATS away from home this season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)

Eagles’ field position vs. Saints’ punting

Part of the Eagles’ struggles on offense has come from poor field position. Philadelphia ranks 31st in the league in starting field position, beginning drives at an average of the 24.9-yard line. In 83 possessions this year, the Eagles have started at their own 40-yard line of better just eight times. The Eagles rank third worst in punt return yardage (5.6 yards per return) and i26th in the NFL in kick return yards (20.2 yards per kick return).

The Saints aren’t doing a lot of things right but have been one of the best punting team in the NFL this season. New Orleans’ big boot Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.

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Capping the Calendar: November's Best NFL Betting Trends
by Marc Lawrence

With trick or treating and NFL underdogs satisfying many a sweet tooth this season, we move on into the second half of the 2012 NFL campaign.

We take an inside look at how teams have fared during the month of November in five key situational roles: Favorites, underdogs, home, away and in division.

Listed below are the good, bad and ugly team trends in games played in the NFL during November since 1990.

HOME TEAMS

• Good: If you go through many Twitter pages or sports forums, you’ll find Tony Romo has a host of nicknames, some that can’t be posted here. Yet despite this, Romo and his predecessors at quarterback have been backed by fine defenses this month and are 37-18 ATS when playing in Big D. Dallas will have two chances to improve this record, on Thanksgiving and four days prior.

• Bad: Having won a couple Super Bowls in the past several years, one would not use the word like “mediocre” to describe the New York Giants. Yet, that is precisely what the G-Men are at home this month. Looking back, they have left their backers with a 13-27 ATS mark. They will have Pittsburgh the first Sunday of the month and a Sunday night affair with Green Bay to close November in New Jersey.

Another NFL team not synonymous with success is St. Louis, which last had a winning season in 2003. The Rams hired Jeff Fisher to take them out of this desolate existence and, though general improvement has been witnessed, there is a long way to go. St. Louis is a dreadful 14-33 ATS at home this month and thanks to a bye week, only has one game at the E.J. Dome on Nov. 18.

• Keep an eye on: Buffalo and Oakland have been failures for years, yet for some reason they go in opposite directions in November playing on their own field. The Bills are a sharp 27-16 ATS, as the bone-chilling colds starts to set in while the Raiders “Commit to Excellence” are just words, not to be taken seriously because of their 15-25 ATS record in November.

AWAY TEAMS

• Keep an eye on: Over the last decade or more, when you hear the names Atlanta, San Diego and Detroit for NFL football, what are they associated with - success or failure? The Falcons and Chargers certainly fit the former and it shows in how they play on the road with Atlanta 26-15 ATS and San Diego 25-15 against the spread in Novemeber.

Toss out Detroit’s 2011 campaign and the Lions have made more bad choices than the Octomom. Send Detroit out of Motown and they are 13-25 ATS in November.

FAVORITES

• Bad: Robert Griffin III has already done special things in a Redskins uniform, even guiding his team to home victories - something they have not been very good at recently (36-44 SU, 2002-11). With RG3 fueled by Subway, maybe he takes the whole team over to the sub shop when they are in the role of favorite, since the Skins are 10-25 ATS in that role during November – which ties nicely into the lack of success starting rookie QBs have had in the league this season. This month, Washington will be giving points to Carolina and possibly to Philadelphia on Nov. 18.

• Keep an eye on: Previously, Dallas has been mentioned as rock-solid home wager and naturally this has often come in the role as the favorite, doling out points. With this being true, the Cowboys are winners when passing points to the competition and are 39-20 ATS.

The Romeo Crennel era in Kansas City is starting to look like it might last as long as the Rick Perry for President campaign. Seemingly, every mistake the Chiefs make is multiplied, giving credence to their failures and supporting their 10-25 ATS record as faves in November. Kansas City might be favored one time when the Bengals visit them.

UNDERDOGS

• Keep an eye on: Two teams from the same division are polar opposites when it comes to how they perform when receiving points. Chicago is a sparkling 34-21 ATS as an underdog in November and is presumed to be in this role at San Francisco on a Monday night.

Detroit on the other hand is a feeble 22-38 ATS as a dastardly dog in November. Precisely how often oddsmakers will place them in this position is difficult to say, with a road game in Minnesota and Ford Field affairs with Green Bay (Nov.18) and Houston on Thanksgiving.

DIVISION

• Good: In the past, New Orleans has been cleaning up on the NFC South in the 11th month of the year, but this year’s team and situation is completely different. The Saints have no defense, no running game and no real head coach, which makes it hard to conceive how they will improve upon their 26-13 ATS record vs. division partners in November. Let’s see how they perform in the bayou when Atlanta pays a visit on Nov.11.

• Keep an eye on: For those that like numbers and appreciate coincidence, this is for you. Both Buffalo and Washington are 15-25 ATS against division opposition in November the past 21 years. This November, each will play one home and road game in their division and each circumstance has the Bills and Redskins playing them with four days between games. Weird.

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 9's Best Prop Plays
by Sean Murphy

A nice 3-1 Week 8 card improved our season record to 20-12 inside the Prop Shop.

We'll aim to keep it rolling with four more winners this Sunday.

Most passing yards

Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings) vs. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)

While Christian Ponder continues to regress, Russell Wilson has stepped up with two of the best games of his short career over the last three weeks.

Expect more of the same this Sunday.

The Seahawks defense will be the second-toughest Ponder has faced this season (he passed for 198 yards against the 49ers in September). While the Vikings have a fierce pass rush, their secondary is beatable. I'm confident we'll see Wilson take some shots down the field and ultimately outgun Ponder.

Take: Wilson

Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Eli Manning (New York Giants)

The Steelers offense seems to become more pass-happy each year and that's certainly held true here in 2012. Ben Roethlisberger should be able to bait the Giants into a bit of a shootout on Sunday, but I'm not convinced he'll be able to outduel Eli Manning.

Manning threw for only 192 yards in Dallas last Sunday, but that was a product of building a 23-0 lead early on. I expect him to be called on early and often to make plays this week. Remember, just two weeks ago, he passed for 337 yards against the Redskins. The Steelers secondary offers another favorable matchup.

Take: Manning

Most rushing yards

Willis McGahee (Denver Broncos) vs. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati Bengals)

BenJarvus Green-Ellis hasn't been a great fit in the Cincinnati offense - at least not yet. He's topped out at 91 yards rushing and that came way back in Week 1. It's tough to envision him busting out against a Broncos defense that has been stout against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush.

Meanwhile, Willis McGahee is enjoying a career resurgence in Denver, particularly this season. He's ran for at least 112 yards on three different occasions and should remain a big part of the offense this week as the Bengals are giving up 4.5 yards per rush on the year.

Take: McGahee

Most pass receptions

Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) vs. Randall Cobb (Green Bay Packers)

I never thought the day would come that I would be picking a guy like Randall Cobb over Larry Fitzgerald, but that says a lot about the current state of the Cardinals offense.

Without an answer at quarterback, the Arizona offense will continue to limp along and Fitzgerald will grow more unhappy with each passing week.

With a depleted receiving corps, Aaron Rodgers has been looking to unlikely sources to move the Packers offense and Randall Cobb has been one of them. He's caught 20 passes in the last three game and should continue to flourish against an aggressive Cards secondary this week.

Take: Cobb

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Colin Cowheard Blazing Five (28-12)
1. Pittsburgh +3.5
2. Colts +2.5
3.Tampa Bay +1.5
4. Seattle -4
5. Dallas +4

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JACK JONES

25* Dog goy steelers +3.5
25* mon total goy saints ov 52

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Teddy Covers

10* Bears
20* Seahawks