11-4-12

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POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Indy, TBay, Balt, Minny


2* Carolina, Tenn, Dallas

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Gold Medal Club NFL Selections 11/4/2012
#416 Cincinnati +4
#420 Indianapolis +2
#421 Baltimore -3.5
#432 Seattle -4
#433 Tampa Bay +1
#437 Dallas +4

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DAVE BLEZOW Lock of the Week ( 1-7 ) :

Lock- SEATTLE

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Norm Hitzges

DOUBLE PLAYS:
· Houston -10 Buffalo
· Seattle -4 1/2 Minnesota

SINGLE PLAYS:

· Pitt +3 NY Giants
· Denver -3 1/2 Cincy
· Cleveland +3 1/2 Baltimore
· Tampa Bay +1 1/2 Oakland
· Carolina +3 Washington
· Dallas +4 Atlanta
· Washington--Carolina OVER 47 1/2

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OCAL SPORTS

(5) GB Pack -11

(5) PIT @ NYG Under 47.5

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NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 9

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting notes on all of Week 9's action.

Carolina at Washington (-3.5, 47)

The Panthers are trying to salvage a season that has gone awry because of five losses by six points or fewer. They've dropped five straight and QB Cam Newton is mired in a sophomore slump. Newton has thrown eight interceptions and only five touchdowns. The Washington defense has been dreadful this season, allowing more than 350 total yards in every game and more than 420 four times. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Arizona at Green Bay (-11, 43.5)

Arizona was among the league's biggest surprises after opening the campaign with four straight victories, but they have come to a screeching halt during their current four-game skid, scoring a total of three touchdowns and averaging only nine points per game during that span. The Packers are going for a fourth straight victory but are missing top receiver Greg Jennings (abdominal) and fellow wideout Jordy Nelson is nursing a hamstring injury. Green Bay has played over the total in four of its last five games and faces its lowest number of the season Sunday (43.5).

Detroit at Jacksonville (4, 44)

The Lions squeaked out a 28-24 decision over the Seahawks last week and look to post back-to-back wins for the first time against the Jaguars, who will try to avoid a five-game losing skid. Jacksonville put up 341 yards of total offense last week against Green Bay without star RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) and QB Blaine Gabbert threw for a season-high 303 yards and a score. Jacksonville also held the dangerous Green Bay offense to a season-low 238 total yards. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Chicago at Tennessee (3.5, 43.5)

Matt Hasselbeck will start at QB in place of the injured Jake Locker but will be going up against a Chicago defense that is tied for the league lead with 16 interceptions. Titans RB Chris Johnson has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three weeks and will try to take some pressure off Hasselbeck. However, the Bears’ stop unit is yielding a league-best 77.9 yards per game while forcing 12 fumbles this season. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Denver at Cincinnati (3.5, 47.5)

The Bengals must find a way to slow down Peyton Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 TDs and three INTs against Cincinnati as a member of the Colts. Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing 12 TDs while being picked off just once over the last four games. Denver may also get a boost on defense with the return of CB Tracy Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with the side effects from seizures. The Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.

Baltimore at Cleveland (3.5, 42.5)

The Ravens are coming off a bye week and have emerged victorious in the last nine meetings against the Browns - including a 23-16 triumph on Sept. 27. Cleveland stood tall and held San Diego to just a pair of field goals in a 7-6 victory last Sunday. Rookie RB Trent Richardson showed no effects of a rib injury and gashed the Chargers for a season-best 122 yards and a TD. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games overall.

Buffalo at Houston (-10, 47.5)

Buffalo is ranked last in nearly every defensive statistic including allowing an NFL-leading 32.4 points per game. Led by Arian Foster, Houston’s elite running game could have its way with a Bills team that is allowing an average of 176 yards a game on the ground and has surrendered 937 yards rushing over their last four games. Buffalo DE Mario Williams underwent wrist surgery last week but expects to play in his return to Houston. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

Miami at Indianapolis (1, 43)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill’s availability for this game is in question due to a bone bruise in his left knee but he was at practice on Wednesday, splitting snaps with backup Matt Moore. The Miami special teams unit was stellar in last week’s win over the Jets, becoming the first team in 20 years to block a punt, block a field goal and recover an onside kick. Andrew Luck is one 300-yard passing performance away from tying Peyton Manning’s rookie mark with four and has already helped double Indianapolis’ win total from last season. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Minnesota at Seattle (-4, 38.5)

The Seahawks suffered their second straight loss in gut-wrenching fashion, surrendering the winning touchdown with 20 seconds to play in last week's 28-24 loss at Detroit. Minnesota will be looking to rebound from an embarrassing 36-17 home loss to Tampa Bay, its second defeat in three games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this season with impressive victories over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six at CenturyLink Field.

Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1, 46.5)

Bucs QB Josh Freeman has passed for 10 TDs against two INTs in his past four games and RB Doug Martin had his best professional game against the Vikings last week, totaling 214 yards from scrimmage. Raiders’ tailback Darren McFadden also had a breakout performance last week, running for a season-high 114 yards in Oakland’s 26-16 win over the Chiefs. Tampa Bay is 3-0 ATS on the road this season.

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (-3.5, 47.5)

Eli Manning and the Giants offense will be up against the NFL's top-rated pass defense that is allowing just 182.6 passing yards per game. Even more impressive is that the Pittsburgh stop unit is getting it done without star S Troy Polamalu, who is set to miss his fourth consecutive game with a strained right calf. The Steelers rushing attack could receive a massive boost this Sunday with the possible return of both Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Jonathan Dwyer has filled in admirably for the injured duo, racking up 229 yards on the ground in consecutive Steeler victories. Pittsburgh is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.

Dallas at Atlanta (-4, 47.5)

The Falcons, who are the lone undefeated team in the league, are coming off a convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which QB Matt Ryan threw three TD passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay. However, the Falcons have been far from dominant at home this season, winning their three games by a total of 11 points. The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the Giants last week before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. The Cowboys have played under the total in six of their last seven road games.

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3, 51.5)

Eagles coach Andy Reid is feeling the heat after his squad dropped its third straight game last Sunday and was mulling a quarterback change this week. But Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta. Vick will have a chance to break out of his slump against a New Orleans defense that has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per game – 50 yards more than the 31st-ranked Buffalo defense. The Saints are the first team to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games since 1950. The teams have played over the total in their last five meetings.

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Wunderdog

Minnesota at Seattle
Pick: Minnesota +4

The Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks both took it on the chin last week and will be looking to rebound. Seattle is certainly an improved team. But if not for a replacement ref's blown call they would be entering this game at just 3-5. They are still suffering growing pains, and have to live and die by rookie QB Russell Wilson. Wilson has had a pretty good rookie season, but he hasn't learned to throw the ball away yet. He keeps trying to force the action, and the price has been 8 INTs on the season. Christian Ponder has been similar, although better than last year. The difference makers here for Minnesota is Adrien Peterson, and Percy Harvin. Harvin is not only an explosive special-teams threat, but he has caught 60 balls this season. Adrien Peterson's surgically-repaired knee has allowed him to run healthy again, accounting for 775 yards on the ground. Minnesota has done a good job shutting down suspect offenses, and they should have a shot at the win here. Play on Minnesota

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vegas-runner | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 4 2012 1:00PM
423 BUF / 424 HOU UNDER 47.5 bodog triple-dime bet

Analysis:
*** NFL 3* EARLY TRUE STEAM BOMB ***

UNDER 47.5 BUF/HOU....(3*)

TRUE-LINE = 44.5

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Sixth sense

434 3% oakland -1.5
434 3% tampa bay/oakland over 46.5
439 3% philadelphia +3

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Football Crusher
Tampa Bay Bucs (PICK) over Oakland Raiders
(System Record: 24-2, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 24-28-4

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Basketball Crusher
Orlando Magic -2 over Phoenix Suns
Cleveland Cavaliers +6 over Milwaukee Bucks (pending)
(System Record: 3-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 3-0-0

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Soccer Crusher
Quilmes + Colon UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 314-12, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 314-269-34

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks 11/4

All listed start times are EST and I'm going with the most recent times available. Check your sportsbook for any late time changes.

I've also started listing the rotation numbers for games so that should make it easier to find at your sportsbook.

1 PM EST
425. Carolina Panthers +3*

4:25 PM EST
435. Pittsburgh Steelers +3*

Rest of Games:
432. Seattle Seahawks -4

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StumpTheSpread

Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Cowboys continue to be an accident waiting to happen and it must be getting frustrating to their fan base and owner. After turning the ball over 6 times against the Giants last week the Cowboys were still in position to win in dramatic fashion but Dez Bryant's pinky cost them the game. This has pretty much been the story for this team since their opening game win and now they have to go on the road and play the 7-0 Atlanta Falcons. Their loss against the Giants dropped the Cowboys to 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games. Atlanta has been discredited by most of the media as being undefeated as a result of a weak schedule. This has to get the Falcons fired up and they will look to prove themselves in this game on national television. Atlanta is 5th in the league in overall scoring and this offense is almost impossible to slow down. Matty Ice has been putting up huge numbers and it helps that he has guys like White, Jones, and Gonzalez to throw to. Also Michael Turner has returned to prominence this year and that has been a big contributor to the Falcons success. I like Atlanta to cover this spread at home.


Pick: Falcons -3.5

Thanks for reading and Good Luck,

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2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = COLTS +8.5 and BUCCANEERS +7.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)


--Notes: I bet this at Bookmaker.eu (you click on the dropdown menu that says "straight" and select teaser). At 5dimes.eu teasers can be found along the left hand side and because of how 5dimes has this shaded you will need to most likely click 7 point teaser "ties win" and not "ties reduce". Basically what you will want your ticket to read is Colts +8.5 or better and Buccs +7.5 or better. At 5dimes you can bet it Colts +7 and Buccs +7 if you have selected a "ties win" teaser as this means if it lands on 3 or 7 that leg of the teaser wins. This stuff may be confusing for you so just email me with any questions.


This is another teaser that fits the basic teaser strategy of crossing over the two biggest "key numbers" in NFL football - 3 and 7. The first leg of the teaser is teasing Colts from +2.5 to +8.5. Indianapolis will host the Miami Dolphins, with both teams surprising most with identical winning 4-3 records. The Colts are 3-1 at home, while the Dolphins are 2-2 on the road. The Dolphins have won three straight games, beating the Jets, Rams and Bengals. Indianapolis has won two straight and 3 of their last 4 games including victories over Tennessee, Cleveland and Green Bay. Their lone home loss was a 5 point loss to the Jaguars. The Colts are ranked 8th overall offensively with 373 yards of offense per game, and are 19th defensively at 350 yards against. Miami is just 23rd ranked offensively (although they are averaging more points per game than the Colts), and they are 22nd defensively (although again they are allowing fewer points against per game at just 18). I think this spread is right on at 2.5, as it could be a field goal game either way. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record. Miami is starting to get respect from the odds makers as they enter as road favorites, but I think that leaves us with a great opportunity to tease the Colts who have played well at home. Note that the Dolphins are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up victory of 15+ points.


The second leg of the teaser is teasing the Buccs from +1.5 to +7.5. Tampa Bay enters Oakland with a 3-4 record and 1-2 road record. The Raiders are aso 3-4 and are 2-1 at home. Tampa Bay has won 2 of their last 3 games, beating Minnesota and Kansas City while losing to the Saints. The Buccs offense has been impressive averaging 34 points per game over that span. Oakland has followed up two straight losses with two wins against Kansas City and Jacksonville. The home victory against Jacksonville came in overtime and the Jags lost their starting QB and RB early due to injury. The only really impressive victory by the Raiders was a 34-31 win over Pittsburgh in Week 3. The Buccs are 9th in the NFL in ppg at 26.3, while the Raiders are 22nd averaging 19.9 ppg. Defensively the Raiders are ranked better, but the Buccaneers have allowed almost 5 less points against per game. Note that the Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS this year, and 14-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Raiders are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. I also see this as a field goal type game, and give the edge to Tampa Bay who also enjoyed a few extra days off after a Thursday night game.


2 UNIT = Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans - TEXANS -10 (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 2.06 units to win 2.00 units)


Both of these two teams had a bye week last week. The Buffalo Bills are sitting at 3-4 with a 2-2 record on the road. The Houston Texans are 6-1 and 3-1 at home. Houston has enjoyed victories over Miami, Jacksonville, Denver, Tennessee, NY Jets, and Baltimore - with their lone loss coming against Green Bay at home. The Bills went into the bye week losing 3 of their last 4 games. Two weeks ago they hosted the Titans and lost 35-34 from a late touchdown by the Titans. They are just 1-3 ATS as underdogs this year, including being blown out 45-3 in San Francisco as 10 point dogs. The Texans rank 9th in total offense, out gaining the Bills by a little over 20 yards per game, and are 2nd behind the Patriots at 30.9 PPG. The Bills are 12th in that department scoring 24.4 points per game. Defensively is where this one is lopsided, as the Texans rank 3rd in the league in total defense and 6th in points against per game. The Bills are dead last in papg allowing 32.4 (about 2 touchdowns more per game than the Texans), and give up 424 yards against per game (31st in the league). Houston isn't much different than the 49ers, and the Bills lost by 42 in that game. Note that the Bills are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. The Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 vs AFC opponents. Look for Houston to steam roll the Bills on Sunday.


2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals - OVER 47 (-112)
(Note: I'm risking 2.24 units to win 2.00 units)


This should be a great opportunity to hit the OVER as the Broncos head to Cincinnati. Denver is 4-3 on the year, while the Bengals are 3-4 and losers of 3 straight. Cincinnati had a bye week this past week to re-group and get ready for Sunday's important meeting with Denver. The Peyton Manning lead Broncos are 3rd in the NFL offensively averaging 405 yards per game, and are scoring 29.1 points per game - good for 4th in the NFL. Cincinnati has an above average offense (although they've been slowed in recent weeks against some good defenses). The Bengals are 17th in the league with 354 yards per game, but are scoring 23.7 points per game - good for 14th in the league. Andy Dalton is ranked 12th in the league as far as QB Rating is concerned completing 64.2% of his passes with 13 TDs and 10 INTs on the season and a 87.7 rating. After a solid performance last week Peyton Manning has moved to 1st int he league with a 109.0 QB rating, as he has completed 68.5% of his passes for 2113 yards, 17 TDs and just 4 INTs. Take note that the OVER is 31-15 in the Broncos last 46 games overall, including going 4-3 this year despite three totals in the 50's. The OVER is also 5-1 in the Broncos last 6 road games, and 6-1 in their last 7 vs AFC opponents. The OVER is also 4-3 for the Bengals this year. The OVER is also 7-3 in the Bengals last 10 home games, 14-5 in their last 19 vs AFC opponents, and 8-3 in their last 11 games following a bye week. The OVER is also 5-1 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. The Bengals had a week off to prepare for the Broncos offense, but it is going to be tough to stop a Peyton Manning lead team. The Broncos have scored 21+ points in all games this season, and Sunday should make it 8 straight. I think Bengals offense will benefit from the time off to regroup and focus on what was working at the start of the season that allowed them to score 99 points over three games from Week 2-4. Take the OVER.


2 UNIT = Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS -3.5 (+107)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.14 units)


-- Write up to come Monday Night for this MNF game.


It is time for a winning week.
Kevin
NFLBettingPicks