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TOLEDO (-7) over Ball State
8:00 p.m. EST
Our FREE PICK record is now 43-24 since September 1st.
The 25th-ranked Rockets are the Mac's best team and have won eight straight games since a 24-17 overtime loss at Arizona to open the season. Toledo running back David Fluellen has rushed for at least 100 yards in the last 5 games and went off for 228 yards against Buffalo in the Rockets last game. He and Quarterback Terrance Owens should find the going easy against the Ball State defense which is ranked 110th in the nation. History is also on our side as the favorite in this series has covered 4 of the last 5. Rockets soar!
Believe it or not, the Toledo Rockets (8-1, 6-3 ATS) out of the MAC are ranked 25th on the BCS Standings, and now the nation can watch them in action as they host the Ball State Cardinals (6-3, 7-2 ATS) from the Glass Bowl in Toledo, OH Tuesday at 8:00 ET on ESPN2. The Rockets have won eight straight games since opening the season with a commendable 24-17 overtime loss on the road at Arizona, a streak that included a non-conference upset of Cincinnati here at home two weeks ago as a 5-point underdog. Ball State has won three straight games with the last two coming on the road, albeit vs. modest competition in Army and Central Michigan.
No, Toledo is not a legitimate BCS contender, and the Rockets actually need this victory to tie Northern Illinois at 6-0 in conference play atop the MAC West Division. In fact, Toledo in one if three MAC teams currently undefeated in the conference with Kent State leading the East at 5-0, so it is curious why Toledo would be the team crashing the bottom of the BCS Standings right now. Still, the Rockets will be anxious to prove that their standing is merited here and they can ill afford to slip up with a huge battle vs. aforementioned Northern Illinois up next in what should be a play-in to the MAC Championship Game. Toledo's latest victory was an uneven non-covering 25-20 win at Buffalo on October 27th, but some of that had to do with the sloppy conditions. A positive that can be taken out of that performance is that the Rockets played much better after halftime, gaining 297 of their 412 total yards in the final two quarters to overcome a 14-7 deficit at the break. Toledo ranks 32nd in the country in total offense and 31st in rushing offense at 270.8 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush, and the Rockets can take full advantage of a 109th ranked Ball State defense that is 102nd against the run while allowing an ugly 5.2 yards per carry.
Playing three straight road games is never easy and the fact that the Cardinals are stepping up in class after beating two relative cupcakes does not help matters either. Then again, they are bowl eligible for the second straight season at 6-3 and they would like to tack on another win or two to prevent a repeat of last year when they did not receive a bowl invite despite being eligible. The offense has not been a concern as Ball State ranks 22nd in the country in total offense and 41st in scoring offense at 33.7 points per game. The key here will be if the beleaguered defense can make some stops. Yes that side of the ball has looked better in recent weeks, especially while allowing opponents to convert on just 10-of-46 third downs in the last four games. Still, the competition was not much the last two weeks and if the excellent Toledo rushing offense is as successful vs. the porous Ball State run defense as expected, then Toledo should not be facing too many third and long situations.
The favorites have gone 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings, and the close call vs. Buffalo puts Toledo in a favorable position that has seen it go 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a ATS loss
Pick: OVER 68.5
Indian Cowboy 6-Unit Play. #705. Take Over 197.5 Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets (Tuesday @ 9pm est).
The Detroit Pistons are not an offensive juggernaut, but they will do much better than their last effort against the Lakers. The sub 80 point performance is out of character for a team that faced a Lakers team that was highly motivated to seek a big win which they got. Now, this team looks to bounce-back after a terrible disappointment facing a Nuggets team that is also seeking a big win after starting the season 0-3. The Nuggets when they seek a big win usually do it on the offensive end rather than on the defensive end. I have this game at 96-110 which is about at 206. Since it's about a 8.5 point shift from my line to Vegas, this is why we're taking the Over in this game. This is similar to our Minnesota/Brooklyn Over which cashed yesterday by essentially double-digits. After getting blown out, I think Detroit is motivated today and we will know early on if this will be a positive win for us or not depending on how well Rodney Stuckey plays. Stuckey missed all 6 of his shots in his last game versus the Lakers and the Pistons starters all saw limited minutes so they should be relatively fresh coming into this game. The Nuggets after having 3 straight losses one would think they are motivated for a big blowout win today. The Over is 5-0 for the Nuggets when they face a team with a straight up losing record and the Over is 12-5 for the Pistons when they play after a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Believe it or not, the Toledo Rockets (8-1, 6-3 ATS) out of the MAC are ranked 25th on the BCS Standings, and now the nation can watch them in action as they host the Ball State Cardinals (6-3, 7-2 ATS) from the Glass Bowl in Toledo, OH Tuesday at 8:00 ET on ESPN2. The Rockets have won eight straight games since opening the season with a commendable 24-17 overtime loss on the road at Arizona, a streak that included a non-conference upset of Cincinnati here at home two weeks ago as a 5-point underdog. Ball State has won three straight games with the last two coming on the road, albeit vs. modest competition in Army and Central Michigan.
No, Toledo is not a legitimate BCS contender, and the Rockets actually need this victory to tie Northern Illinois at 6-0 in conference play atop the MAC West Division. In fact, Toledo in one if three MAC teams currently undefeated in the conference with Kent State leading the East at 5-0, so it is curious why Toledo would be the team crashing the bottom of the BCS Standings right now. Still, the Rockets will be anxious to prove that their standing is merited here and they can ill afford to slip up with a huge battle vs. aforementioned Northern Illinois up next in what should be a play-in to the MAC Championship Game. Toledo's latest victory was an uneven non-covering 25-20 win at Buffalo on October 27th, but some of that had to do with the sloppy conditions. A positive that can be taken out of that performance is that the Rockets played much better after halftime, gaining 297 of their 412 total yards in the final two quarters to overcome a 14-7 deficit at the break. Toledo ranks 32nd in the country in total offense and 31st in rushing offense at 270.8 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush, and the Rockets can take full advantage of a 109th ranked Ball State defense that is 102nd against the run while allowing an ugly 5.2 yards per carry.
Playing three straight road games is never easy and the fact that the Cardinals are stepping up in class after beating two relative cupcakes does not help matters either. Then again, they are bowl eligible for the second straight season at 6-3 and they would like to tack on another win or two to prevent a repeat of last year when they did not receive a bowl invite despite being eligible. The offense has not been a concern as Ball State ranks 22nd in the country in total offense and 41st in scoring offense at 33.7 points per game. The key here will be if the beleaguered defense can make some stops. Yes that side of the ball has looked better in recent weeks, especially while allowing opponents to convert on just 10-of-46 third downs in the last four games. Still, the competition was not much the last two weeks and if the excellent Toledo rushing offense is as successful vs. the porous Ball State run defense as expected, then Toledo should not be facing too many third and long situations.
The favorites have gone 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings, and the close call vs. Buffalo puts Toledo in a favorable position that has seen it go 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a ATS loss Pick: OVER 68.5
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