11-11-12

[poopoo333]

Cowboys at Eagles: What Bettors Need to Know

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 44)

A pair of underachieving NFC East teams will meet in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite lofty expectations, the season is in jeopardy of slipping away for both clubs as they head into this crucial matchup. Philadelphia's beleaguered offensive line bore the brunt of most of the criticism as Michael Vick was sacked seven times and the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night.

Dallas certainly isn't dancing in the streets either as it fell short in its bid to unseat undefeated Atlanta last week en route to a 19-13 loss. Tony Romo rebounded from a brutal first half versus the New York Giants to complete 25 of 35 passes for 321 yards and a touchdown versus the Falcons. Romo strained his back on the final play, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Cowboys -1, O/U, 44.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-5): One can understand if LB DeMarcus Ware is licking his chops as he heads into Sunday's tilt. After New Orleans had its way with Vick, Dallas' sack leader will look to get his piece of the pie on national television. Ware has recorded nine sacks in his last three games versus Philadelphia. Tight end Jason Witten, who has recovered from his injured spleen, has 50 receptions for 462 yards in his last five games.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-5): Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season. The electric quarterback completed 39 of 60 passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Vick received some bad news as right tackle Todd Herremans suffered a tendon strain to his foot against the Saints. Herremans was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, thus forcing the switch of King Dunlap to right tackle.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last eight road games.
* Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC East foes.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Eagles’ last eight vs. NFC East foes.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray has been sidelined with a sprained left foot since Oct. 14, but did some light rehab work in practice on Wednesday. Murray is not expected to play versus the Eagles.

2. Turnovers have been critical to the shortcomings of both clubs. Dallas is a horrid minus-11 while Philadelphia is minus-9 in that department.

3. Coach Andy Reid boasts a 17-10 mark versus Dallas, while Jason Garrett has dropped three of his four contests against Philadelphia.

[poopoo333]

Andy Iskoe

Sunday, Nov. 11

Bills +11½ at Patriots (51): These teams met in Week 4 with the Pats rallying for a lopsided 52-28 win, outscoring the Bills 31-7 in the fourth quarter. These teams have scored at least 65 combined points in four of their last five meetings, including each of the last three. OVER.

Giants -4 at Bengals (48½): Teams are an ugly 3-17 ATS this season prior to their bye weeks when not playing another such team. The Giants finally get their bye next week so this situation would point to a play on the Bengals. But Cincy has lost four in a row overall, three of which have been at home. The Giants are a notoriously strong road team. This line may be a bit short. GIANTS.

Chargers +3 at Bucs (48): Based on performance Tampa Bay has been the better team. On talent level the Chargers would seem to have the edge. Chargers have generally excelled over the second half of the season under coach Norv Turner and have played well on the road. Getting points from a team not accustomed to being a favorite is the more appealing option. CHARGERS.

Broncos -4 at Panthers (47½): Denver is on a roll with three straight wins, including two on the road. But now they travel east for a second straight week and have a pair of divisional games on deck. Carolina’s fine play in recent weeks was rewarded with a solid road win at Washington. The Panthers are just 2-6 but five of the losses have been by six points or less. PANTHERS.

Titans +6 at Dolphins (44½): Normally this would be a good spot to play the Titans who won their most recent road game following a trio of road losses and non covers earlier. But their offense is too inconsistent to justify confidence. Miami’s low risk offense does suggest points at a premium. UNDER .

Raiders +7½ at Ravens (46): This is Baltimore’s first home game in nearly a month after a pair of road games sandwiched around its bye. And the Ravens have a pair of tough road games on deck. We should see Baltimore take advantage of Oakland’s defensive weaknesses and top 30 points for the fourth time in five home games this season. RAVENS.

Atlanta -2½ at Saints (NT): Atlanta is a solid 6-2 ATS and has averaged beating the line by 6.8 points per game, third best in the league. Still, the Saints have the offensive firepower to potentially deal Atlanta its first loss in a game that should be very wide open. Both quarterbacks should post big stats. OVER.

Lions -1½ at Vikings (47): Minnesota won the first meeting 20-13, scoring a pair of special team touchdowns, but the offense was unable to find the Detroit end zone. Since that game the fortunes of both teams have reversed. The Lions have overcome a 1-3 start to reach .500 while the Vikes have dropped to 5-4 after starting 4-1. LIONS.

Jets +6½ at Seahawks (38½): Seattle is a perfect 4-0 both straight up and ATS at home following their win over Minnesota, their first in the role of a favorite this season. The home team is now 7-1 in Seahawk games. The Jets continue to struggle on offense and it won’t get any easier at one of the NFL’s noisiest venues. The cross country trip does not help either. SEAHAWKS.

Cowboys +2½ at Eagles (NT): Both teams have been money burners this season with Dallas 3-5 ATS and Philly 1-5-1 ATS prior to Monday night. Recent meetings have been relatively low scoring with five of the last six producing a combined 41 points or less with three of the games staying below 30 points. UNDER .

Rams +11½ at 49ers (38½): Both teams return from byes. The 49ers have held four of its last five foes to six points or less with the lone exception being the 26-3 loss to the Giants three games back. They lead the NFL in fewest points allowed. The Rams are 0-3 both SU and ATS against the elite teams they’ve faced this season (Chicago, Green Bay and New England). 49ERS.

Texans +1½ at Bears (41½): Chicago’s defense leads the NFL in forcing 3.5 takeaways per game. Houston’s defense has allowed just one foe to rush for more than 99 yards although both defenses are allowing an average of less than 90 rushing ypg. Texans playing first road game since Oct. 8. BEARS.

[poopoo333]

Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today

Bills +11 at Patriots: London no longer calling, but Giselle is. So look for Brady to fire up TD’s like he did against Rams. PATRIOTS.

Texans -1 at Bears: The only team to beat Houston is NFC North Green Bay. Chicago is in same division, hot and a home dog. BEARS.

Lions -1½ at Vikings: Detroit starting to generate live up to expectations Vikes, despite Peterson, coming back to earth. LIONS.

NY Jets +6½ at Seattle: Seahawks tough at home as we already know. Crowd will bother Sanchez. UNDER.

[poopoo333]

Cappers Access

Buccaneers -3
Ravens -7-
49er's -12-
Texans +1

[poopoo333]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 935-693 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free play SUN under the total 45 Dolphins/Tenn

[poopoo333]

Lines2Win
NFL

Lions -3 (to win 1.50 Units) - We never believed Minnesota was the real deal and still don't. Peterson is a monster but they lack passing and receiving prowess. Lions 8th best against the pass have changed their ways to finally find balance in their offense. No revenge for Minny today, Lions roll again.

Cowboys -1 (to win 2 Units) - Philly is done is our opinion. The Dallas defense will keep Vick in check like everyone else has been able to. Romo for some reason excels in November games and we see another big time game from him again today.

Saints +1 (to win 3 Units) - Going all in against the Falcons yet once again. They have made us pay this season already, but the Saints have turned the corner offensively and are not the same team that started off the season so shitty. Atlanta catches their first loss of the season today.

We like the Texans over the Bears in the nightcap, but will wait to see how the day games go first. Most lines on NBA and CBB are fluctuating too much right now, but might have a play or 2 in hoops tomorrow as well.

[poopoo333]

NBA

Sunday, November 11

Hot Teams
-- Clippers won four of first six games (1-2 as home favorites).
-- Grizzlies won/covered their last four games. Miami won its last four games, covering the last three.
-- Oklahoma City won four of last five games (2-2 as home faves).

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost its last three games, losing by 39 to Nets Friday. Nets split first four games- they're 2-1 as favorites.
-- Hawks split first four games, with visitor winning three of four.
-- Cavaliers lost four of last five games (3-1 as road dog).
-- Lakers lost four of first six games; their wins are by 24-29 points. Kings are 0-3 on road (1-2 as road dog), losing by 6-12-8 points.

Totals
-- Nets' last five home games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta road games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Memphis home games stayed under.
-- Last five Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Last three Laker games stayed under the total.

[poopoo333]

Paul Leiner:

2000* NFL Over 53 Saints/Falcons

500* NFL Jets +6

100* NFL Lions -2.5

100* CBB Villanova -4.5

100* NBA Under 1098.6 Clippers/Hawks

[Mr. IWS]

TEDDY COVERS

NFL Early Week Wiseguy $$$$ SIDE

#218 - Bengals

#220 - Bucs

#226 - Ravens

#Lions - (still off the board at many books)

#233 - Cowboys

#235 - Rams

Light Early Week Wiseguy $$$$ on TOTALS

UNDERS

Denver- Carolina

Oakland- Baltimore

Dallas - Philly

Houston- Chicago

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

4 units Take #220. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 over San Diego Chargers (Sunday @ 1pm est).

3 units #294. Take Under 51.5 Calgary vs. Saskatchewan (Sunday @ 4:30pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers Big Ticket: NFL Sunday 10* Major Revenge $$$

---Detroit Lions

Teddy's Saints - Falcons Sunday Afternoon Moneymaker!

---Atlanta Falcons

Teddy's Sin City Sizzler: Easy Sunday NFL Blowout $$$

---Dallas Cowboys

Sunday Night Bears - Texans Winner

---Houston Texans

[Mr. IWS]

ALLEN EASTMAN / ACE-ACE

6-Unit Play. Take #237 Houston (+1) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov 11)
This is my NFL Game of the Week and from my NFL 411 System.
I really like this Houston team. They are 6-2 ATS on the season and they are one of the AFC favorites. I think that they are going to go to Chicago and get this victory. The Bears are home after a big blowout win over Tennessee. That has got a lot of people on their bandwagon this week. But the Texans have been a powerhouse team for the entire season. This team already has a win over Denver on the road, over the Jets on the road, and by 30 points over a good Baltimore team. I think that the Texans are going to focus hard on not turning the ball over and on minimizing mistakes against the Bears defense. And if Chicago isn't getting touchdowns on defense and special teams they have a hard time scoring. Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games and they are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall. I think that Houston is a much more complete football team. And I think that they have played better this year from start to finish. I know that my system is flying in the face of the public here. But I trust my 411 System to deliver the goods again.

5-Unit Play. Take #221 Denver (-3.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
This play is my NFL 411 System.
I will keep betting on Peyton Manning. This is a small number when we have a big advantage at quarterback and on defense. The Broncos are streaking under Manning and have won and covered three straight games. The Panthers are coming off an emotional game over the Redskins last week. They are not as strong of a team overall and there is a lot of grumbling in the Carolina locker room. Cam Newton is not getting along with his coach and this team is struggling to score points on offense. I do not think that the Panthers are going to be able to keep up with this efficient Broncos attack if this game becomes a shootout.

3-Unit Play. Take #220 Tampa Bay (-3) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
This is tough for San Diego. They have to make a long flight across the country to play a tough Tampa team. This is just San Diego's third game in Tampa since 1988. And this game is a 1 p.m. EST start and that is always tough for the West Coast teams to take care of. The Bucs just came off a convincing win at Oakland last week. They are running the ball San Diego won big over Kansas City on Thursday night. But that game was given to the Chargers thanks to Kansas City turnovers. Tampa Bay has scored over 35 points in three of four games and they have a very hot offense. Bucs wide receiver was let go by San Diego prior to this season. I think that he is very motivated to have a big week and I think he will hurt his former team.

4-Unit Play. Take #224 Miami (-6) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
Miami will bounce back at home this week. They lost to Andrew Luck on the road last week. But now they are facing a Titans team that has looked terrible lately. The Titans were embarrassed by the Bears last week. Tennessee was down 28-2 in that game in the first quarter and gave up over 50 points. Miami is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a loss and they are on a nice run of 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Tennessee is just 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall and the Titans are 2-6-1 ATS against the AFC. Tennessee is not sure who will start at quarterback. Neither option is a good option. Miami is making good strides in Joe Philbin's first year. I think that they will have another strong showing and will get the home win here.

3-Unit Play. Take #227 Atlanta (-1.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
The Falcons are a great value here! They are the last unbeaten team in the league. But they are still not getting respect from the oddsmakers. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS this year and they have lost three straight to the Saints. That means that they will be looking for revenge against their hated rivals. The road team has won four of the last five meetings and home field advantage does not mean as much in this series. New Orleans has won three of four games. They are trying to get back in the NFC South race. But they have some bad signs. They have been outgained in four straight games and five of six. I do not think that this team is strong enough to take down Atlanta. I will lay the small number here and this game could come down to a field goal for the road team to et a win.

2-Unit Play. Take #233 Dallas (-1) over Philadelphia (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
I like Dallas to get the job done here. Philadelphia is a team that has completely imploded. No one on this team looks like they want to save this season and this looks like it will be Andy Reid's last season and Mike Vick's last year with the team. Dallas is playing its fourth road game in five weeks. They had close, late losses at Atlanta and Baltimore. And they beat Carolina. This team also won at New York against the Giants. They are more proven on the road. The Eagles have lost four straight games and they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games. Dallas is the much better team here and that is why they are favored. They get the job done.

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #220 Take Tampa Bay -3 over San Diego (1:00p.m., Sunday, Nov 11)
(Saturday Play of the Day) Revenge will be sweet Saturday night on the road for the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Tulsa is coming off a non-conference loss last weekend from Arkansas but Saturday Tulsa will be looking to punch their ticket to the Conference USA Championship game. If the Houston Cougars can't slow down the Tulsa offense Saturday night this game could get out of control quickly and I just don't see Houston scoring at will against the Tulsa. Turnovers and their defense play have killed Houston all season long and Tulsa's defense will try to complete this task and again the Tulsa Golden Hurricane will win this road game with ease and by double-digits. Tulsa is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 conference games and Houston is 3-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record.

2 Unit Play. #426 Take Seattle -6 over New York Jets (4:05p.m., Sunday, Nov 11)
The Seahawks defense is great at home and if the QB problems occur for the Jets this game will be ugly for a New York fan. The Seahawks are an outstanding 16-5 ATS at home under Pete Carroll and they win games at home on tough 'in your face' defense and Sunday we should see this trend cash again. Granted, the Jets are coming off a bye week but traveling across country to play the Seahawks where Seattle is perfect at home could be a tough task. Seattle wins this game by a touchdown or more and the offense of the Jets again struggles to score points.

6 Unit Play. #238 Take Chicago -1 over Houston (8:30p.m., Sunday, Nov 11 NBC)
(NFL Game of the Month) Why are the Chicago Bears only a -1 point favorite at home? I thought for sure the Bears would be a field goal favorite and in my eyes the oddsmakers are disrespecting the Chicago Bears in this game. Chicago defense scores points every week and the Bears defense can cause QB troubles at all times. The Bears have a solid running game with Forte being healthy and the arm of Jay Cutler has been pretty good at home. Yes Cutler still makes dumb mistakes but when he does seems like the defense steps up and corrects the turnover. This game should be outstanding and this game will be Bears defense versus Matt Schaub and the Texans offense. If Matt Schaub is smart he won't throw on the side of the field Chris Tillman is on because Chris Tillman could be the difference in this game. Weather could be the factor in this game and if the weather does become an issue it will be big for the Chicago Bears. Bears win this game but it will be close and a field goal could be the difference.

[Mr. IWS]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

NFL Selections

7-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44 Tennessee at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
Note: This is our NFL Total of the Year.
This Tennessee defense is absolutely terrible and on the road they are even worse. The Titans have given up at least 30 points in each of their road games thus far this season. They gave up 34 to the Buffalo Bills, 30 to the Minnesota Vikings, and 38 to both the Houston Texans and the San Diego Chargers. Now don't get me wrong, I am not saying that this Dolphins team has the offensive prowess of some of those teams but the Dolphins are averaging 24 points a game in their home contests and the last time they played a team with a bad defense in front of their home crowd they put up 35 points against the Oakland Raiders.
Vegas knows that this game will be high scoring as the Dolphins have gone 'under' the total in three of their last four games and yet their posted totals continue to go up. Tennessee has only had two games all season fall short of a 44-point overall total.
Chris Johnson is really starting to roll as of late and even though Miami has an underrated rush defense I just don't see them stopping him. he has rushed for at least 90 yards in his last four games and even posted two games with over 120 yards (195 against the Bills). Being able to run the ball won't slow this game down and make it difficult to reach the total, it will make the Titans more efficient in the redzone and make them less one dimensional.
The 'Over' is 5-1 in the last six Titan games on grass and it is 4-1 in the last five Titan games versus the AFC.

3-Unit Play. Take #220 Tampa Bay (-3) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
I am all about this Tampa Bay team right now. They just continue to play solid football and if they can continue to get good numbers from their running game they will be difficult to beat. San Diego on the other hand just continues to fit the mold of a team with high expectations that always falls short. Don't buy too much into their lopsided victory last weekend as they were only up 10-6 going into the fourth quarter and two of the three touchdowns they scored in that fourth quarter were defensive.

Tampa Bay has won three of their last four games overall and they have looked quite good in doing so. The Bucs are averaging 36 points over their last four games and San Diego doesn't seem poised to slow down this quickly improving offense.

Once the calendar turns to November the Bucs are absolute money and the Chargers go up in flames. San Diego is 1-4 ATS in their last five games in November while Tampa Bay is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 November games. Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

2-Unit Play. Take #238 Chicago (-1) over Houston (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 11)
This Bears team is playing like they are one of the best teams in football right now, and yet they still aren't given enough credit. I have taken them numerous times this season and each time has paid dividends. In each write up we have talked about how they keep getting lines that are easy to jump on as they aren't looked at as one of the best and it baffles me.
Houston has won three of their last four games, but in the Buffalo, NY Jets, and Green Bay games the Texans did not look good. Green Bay was good enough to take advantage of this and win that game outright which the Bears should do as well. This will be the first road game for the Texans since October 8th and it will show. The Bears crowd will be waiting for this one as they will want the NFL to finally take notice of just how good this team is on BOTH sides of the football.
Chicago is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as a small home favorite (0-3.5) and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine November games.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #121/#230 Take Detroit Lions -2.5 over Minnesota Vikings
(Sunday, 11/11, 1 pm FOX)
Detroit
The Lions were written off as the worst team in the NFC North, but they have been climbing the standings the last two weeks, and a win in Minneapolis will move them into third place and back into playoff contention. They are playing a Vikings team that is a sinking ship, and expect them to jump on them early with their passing attack, which is currently 1st in the NFL in yards per game. Detroit dominated Jacksonville last week, and QB Matthew Stafford continues to rack up big yards in the passing department. Detroit is 14-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games following an ATS victory in their previous game.
Minnesota
The Vikings got off to a hot start at 5-2 and had two winnable games that would have put them in great position for the playoffs but they dropped both of them, and a loss this week will move them to last place in the NFC North and out of playoff contention. Teams have keyed them for the run, and Minnesota has not been able to beat teams through the air, averaging just 188.6 passing yards per game. QB Christian Ponder is not good enough to win games by himself, and expect the Lions to force him to make plays through the air. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games against NFC North opponents.
Final Comment
Minnesota is not a good enough team to beat the Lions twice in one season. Minnesota already won in Detroit this year, but I fully expect the Lions to return the favor on Sunday. Detroit needs to stop the running attack led by Adrian Peterson, but if they accomplish this they will win this game.
Detroit by 10

6 Unit Play. #136/#238 Take Chicago Bears -1 over Houston Texans
(Sunday, 11/11, 8:25 pm NBC) Top NFL Play of the Weekend
Chicago
The Bears put forth a dominating performance last Sunday in Tennessee (we used them as a selection), and expect them to follow that up with a strong performance this Sunday at home against the best team in the AFC. Chicago has played a very easy schedule thus far, and things will get much tougher in the coming week with a road trip to San Francisco on the horizon. The Bears have a dominating defense that can force a turnover on any given play, and Houston has not seen a defense this strong in quite some time. QB Cutler has a great relationship with WR Brandon Marshall, and this gives Chicago a big-play weapon that has been sorely missing for years in the Windy City. Chicago is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games played during the month of November.
Houston
The Texans sit atop the standings in the AFC with a 7-1 record, but their only loss came via a blowout to another team from the NFC North. Houston has played just one tough team on the road this season, and that came at Denver before Peyton Manning started to take off. Houston did not look that impressive last week at home against Buffalo, and it would not surprise me if they come into this game overconfident. I truly believe that the loss of Brian Cushing at linebacker will eventually catch up with this team and hurt their chances to win games in the playoffs.
Final Comment
Both teams are playing outstanding football at the moment, and this is a game that is must-see TV. That being said, I am not a big believer in Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips, as neither coach has won big games on a consistent basis. Chicago will not get all the breaks like they did last week at Tennessee, but they will create enough behind their top-ranked defense to win this game at home. Houston's only loss came on a Sunday Night Football game, and expect history to repeat itself in a big way.
Chicago by 10