11-15-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe - Dolphins

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OCAL Sports
4 - Buffalo Bills -1
2 - Minny -16.5 (CBB)

38-22 overall in the NFL

4-5 last two weeks in NFL

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Wellington Syndicate

8* Top Play NBA--San Antonio Spurs -5 (burial)

5* NFL Play--Buffalo Bills -2.5

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Johnny Silkwood

Heat +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

IC

3-Unit Play. #537. Take NC-Central -4.5 over Southern AM (Thursday @ 6:30pm est).

NC-Central is head by Coach LeVelle Moton and they are a team that has potential this year. This team won 17 games last year and they bring back 3 important players as they face Southern AM today. You have to be impressed by the fact they played Wichita State who is a top 50 team on the road and lost by 14 and lost to a top 150 team Wyoming on the road by 13. Now, this team to me is a top 200 team given their two losses to both a top 50 team and a top 150 team and I think they will step up here against the top 300 team in Southern AM. Southern lost to a Nebraska team who is a top 240 team in my book by 11 points and now as they face a team who is better as Central is a top 200 team, I suspect they will struggle today. I like the fact that Southern comes off a win against South Dakota who is a top 330 team which allows them to be in a spot for a let down here. I think Central should do well here given the power rankings as they could win this game by double-digits.

3-Unit Play. #546. Take Northern Kentucky +6.5 over Tulsa (Thursday @ 7:30pm est).

Northern Kentucky could win this game Outright. Not much is known about this young program but keep in mind that from what they showed in the first game losing to San Diego by just 4 points on the road says a lot. Dave Bezold has quietly assembled a group of players that can play. That game against San Diego was a road game and now they play on neutral footing against a Tulsa team is a top 250 team. So, by my rankings I have Northern Kentucky as a surprise top 200 team who is getting 6.5 points on neutral footing. Tulsa is lead by Kansas alum Danny Manning who is a great hire. This team will do extremely well but this Manning's 1st year as head coach. And, as Tulsa comes off a big win against a non-division one school, I like Northern Kentucky to do well here as Tulsa could be in for a bit of a let down away from home and facing a solid team. At the end of the day, this is simply respect for a Northern Kentucky team that did well on the road against San Diego and who I think can do well against Manning's team who has yet to face difficult competition yet.

3-Unit Play. #509. Take Southern Miss +3.5 over Georgia (Thursday @ 8pm est).

Unless Georgia can beat a top 200 team, we'll keep rolling against them. Georgia will turn it around at some point as Coach Fox could be on the hot seat here. But, Southern Miss is head by new coach Donnie Tyndall who helped his team to an overtime win over Western Kentucky. I have Southern Miss as a top 150 squad. Georgia beat Jacksonville who is outside the top 200 by just 6 points at home and that led us to take Youngstown State on the road against Georgia as 8 point Underdogs and they ended up winning Outright against them by 10 points (18 point cover). I suspect Georgia will bounce-back and this game will be a lot closer. These are two defensive teams at heart and to get 3.5 points in a game that could be a tossup is not bad, plus, Georgia has not done well against top 200 teams all year (and last year) and they face a top 150 team here at home essentially similarly ranked to Youngstown State. I like Southern Miss to likely get up for this game as well. Plus, this is a decent public fade to boot as well. Look for a tight game the whole way and possibly a Southern Miss Outright Win by a few points here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intpicks
2- Miami @ buffalo under 45.5, n Carolina @ Virginia over 61.5, Miami @ Denver over 202, valparaiso -5
1- Indiana -30(CBB)

Free play Knicks +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso
50 Units

Bills (-2½) over Dolphins
8:20 PM -- Ralph Wilson Stadium
AFC Game Of The Week 50 Units BUFFALO BILLS (3-6) -2 ½ over Miami Dolphins (4-5)

Prediction: Bills by 9-10

Comments: In this topsy-turvy NFL season it is no surprise both teams are still alive for spots in the post-season, so there still is much for which to play. My figures say Buffalo is much better than its record and that Miami is not as good as its record says it is. Buffalo has lost three straight—to Tennessee, 35-34, at Houston 21-9, and last week at New England, 37-31—but the Bills played quite respectably in those games, especially against the Patriots. In last week’s game Buffalo out-stated New England 35 first downs to 27 and 481 yards of offense to 347 and could just as easily have won as lost. I expect Buffalo to play another excellent game tonight and take a decisive win over a Dolphins team that has lost its last two games, at Indianapolis, 23-20, and last week at home to Tennessee, 37-3. It all came unglued for Miami last week and it ended up with just 255 yards of total offense while rookie QB Ryan Tannehill went 23-of-39 passes for 217 yards, with three interceptions.
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Near 40.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

IC NBA

4-Unit Play. #506. Take Denver Nuggets -3 over Miami Heat (Thursday @ 10:35pm est).

I know it's hard to swallow going against the Miami Heat. And, especially when the Heat come off a loss. But, on Thursday Night Basketball, with 65% of the public on the Heat and yet the line shows Denver as a favorite makes you take a second look at the game. Bear in mind that Denver has revenge from a 113-116 loss to Miami earlier this year. And, Denver comes off a loss of their own on the road at Phoenix possibly looking ahead to this game. I wish Miami had not lost to the Clippers but then again, even when Miami lost to Memphis handily on the road earlier this year, they only beat Houston by a few points in the next game (by just 3 and did not cover the -5.5 point spread). With Denver having revenge, this being a late game and the public hovering over Miami, I like Denver to bounce-back here from yesterday's loss and take the public down with them here. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Western Conference and the Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games coming off a straight up loss.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Nelson


NFL Thursday

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Miami at Buffalo
Time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Miami (+2.5 +100)
Line Source: BetGrande
Posted on: November 15, 2012 @ 11:05:54 AM EST

The Bills poured a lot into last week’s game with New England, a game Buffalo had a chance to win late. Buffalo had 35 first downs in the game but three turnovers proved costly. The Bills have the second worst defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game and no team has allowed more points. Miami had outstanding defensive numbers early in the year but consecutive ugly losses have crippled any playoff hopes. Last week’s loss can be pinned on turnovers as Miami only allowed 293 yards in the game. This is the first meeting between these teams this season and Miami has had recent success in this series as well as playing on the road. Miami is 6-2 ATS in the last four years of this match-up and Buffalo is just 12-18-1 ATS at home since 2008 despite a reputation for holding a strong home field. Buffalo will look for C.J. Spiller to have a big day but Miami’s run defense has been among the best in the NFL, allowing just 94 yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. In contrast Buffalo has one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing over 163 yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry. Miami has been out-gained and out-rushed in each of the last five games despite winning three of those games but the Dolphins will have more opportunities in the passing game if they can get the running game back on track. Buffalo has lost five of the last six games and the lone win came in overtime. The Bills had been out-gained and out-rushed in five straight games before winning the yardage battle against the Patriots last week and the Bills have really struggled defensively in the last two home games, allowing 87 points. Miami is 8-0-3 ATS in the last 11 games as a slight underdog of three or less and injuries will be problematic for Buffalo on the short week with several key players on both sides of the ball doubtful for tonight’s game. Miami is more likely to get back on track with a superior defense and an offense that will be more versatile.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Ferrall

PREMIUM PACKAGES
Package Picks Bet Type Expires

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS FOR THURSDAY NORTH CAROLINA -3
Virginia Against the Spread Thursday, November 15th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS FOR THURSDAY NORTH CAROLINA / VIRGINIA OVER 60 Points Totals Thursday, November 15th
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS FOR THURSDAY NORTH CAROLINA -165
Virginia Money Lines Thursday, November 15th

NFL PICKS FOR THURSDAY Miami
BUFFALO PICK Against the Spread Thursday, November 15th
NFL PICKS FOR THURSDAY MIAMI / BUFFALO OVER 45 Points Totals Thursday, November 15th
NFL PICKS FOR THURSDAY Miami
BUFFALO -127 Money Lines Thursday, November 15th

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass for Thursday night-all for 50units
NBA:
Knicks
Denver

College Baskets:
Tulsa
San Jose State

College Football:
OVER Virginia

NFL:
Miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

25 Units


Nets (-4½) over Celtics

8:00 PM -- Barclays Center

BROOKLYN NETS (4-2) -4 ½ over Boston Celtics (5-3)

Prediction: Nets by 10-11

Comments: The Nets may be a work in progress but they are getting better with each game they play and have to be motivated to beat a Celtics team against which they are but 2-18 lifetime and a team to which they lost three times last season by an average of 14.7 points. Boston may be without point guard Rajon Rondo (ankle injury) tonight and even if he plays he may not be a full strength. It also is a big positive for the Nets that Deron Williams and the newly-acquired (from Atlanta) Joe Johnson finally woke up and in their last game scored 25 and 26 points respectively. A motivated Brooklyn team has most of the edges in this one and should get the win and cover.



Kelso

10 Units


Virginia (+3) over North Carolina

7:30 PM -- David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium
VIRGINIA (4-6) +3 over North Carolina (6-4)

Prediction: Virginia by 12-13

Played in Charlottesville, Virginia Played at Scott Stadium (61,500) Grass Weather: Mostly Cloudy, game-time temperature in 30s, relative humidity of 73& and no wind. Starting Time: 7:35 TV: ESPN

Comments: This is a game between two teams headed in opposite directions and with one of them desperate to win and become bowl eligible. From a personal point of view, I never quite understood why Virginia started so slowly and played so poorly earlier in the season. The talent was there for a break-out season but it did not show itself until the Cavaliers last two games—a 33-6 win at N.C. State as a 10 ½-point underdog and last week at home against Miami in a gritty 41-40 win as a 2-point favorite. This says to me the real Virginia team finally woke up. As for North Carolina, the Tar Heels have shown all season they can be had and come into this game off a 68-50 home loss to Georgia Tech—a loss that left them 1-2 in their last three games. North Carolina is 1-3 on the road this season, losing at Louisville, Wake Forest and Duke. Virginia should get its much-needed win tonight and position itself to become bowl eligible at Virginia Tech next week.

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 1-5 m.p.h. Game-time temperature:

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Underdog
Virginia

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Tampasports

miami +3 nfl
virginia +3.5
brooklyn -4.5 buy the hook

[DaKid]

Anyone see Big Al?