11-18-12

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Vegas Runner NFL early steam game of the week

Kansas city

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NFLPredictions
Kevin

8-1 last 2 weeks in the NFL

2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = DOLPHINS +7.5 and BRONCOS -1.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)


--Notes: I bet this at Bookmaker.eu (you click on the dropdown menu that says "straight" and select teaser). At 5dimes.eu teasers can be found along the left hand side and because of how 5dimes has this shaded you will need to most likely click 6.5 point teaser "ties win" and not "ties reduce". If you don't understand just email me with any questions.


Because this is a Thursday night game I will give out the Miami write up right now, and then the Broncos write up with the other write ups tomorrow or Friday. The Dolphins enter Thursday's game with a 4-5 record and 2-3 record on the road. They've lost two straight after winning three straight, with their latest a brutal 37-3 loss to the Titans. Their last game wasn't who the Dolphins have been this year, as neither their offense or defense showed up. The Dolphins had allowed 24 or fewer points against in all 8 games before Sunday. Buffalo enters the game 3-6 and 1-2 at home. They've lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Although they covered the spread in New England, the Bills have been playing poor football, allowing 21+ points against in 5 of their last 6 and 35+ points against in 4 of those games. Offensively the Bills rank higher than the Dolphins, but Buffalo is 31st in the league defensively allowing 410 yards against per game and last in the NFL allowing 31.7 points against per game (11 more papg than Miami is allowing). The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs divisional opponents and beat the Bills both times they met last season. The Dolphins are also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs divisional opponents. Over the last few years the Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in these two teams last 8 meetings. Thursday should be a close game, and the Dolphins have a good shot at pulling off an upset. Take them in the first leg of the teaser getting 7.5.


2 UNIT = Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons - FALCONS -9.5 (-101)
(Note: I'm risking 2.02 units to win 2.00 units)


2 UNIT = Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys - BROWNS +8 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)


2 UNIT = Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans - TEXANS -15 (+100)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)


2 UNIT = New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders - SAINTS -4.5 (-106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.12 units to win 2.00 units)

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Broad Street Cappers--Sunday
Football:

Redskins -3.5 (1:00pm ET)
Panthers +1.5 (1:00pm ET)

Patriots -9 (4:25pm ET)

Ravens +4 (8:30pm ET)

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Prediction Machine
Rams 61 %
Denver 60%
Pitt 59%
Dallas 58%
Car 58%

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Docs Sports (No ratings given)

Unit Play. #115/#413 Take Green Bay Packers -3.5 over Detroit Lions
(Sunday, 11/18, 1 pm FOX)


Unit Play. #124/#422 Take St. Louis Rams -3.5 over New York Jets
(Sunday, 11/18, 1 pm CBS)

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Jack Edwards Week 11
Sunday "Lock" Indianapolis at New England Pick: Over 53

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Indian Cowboy
Sunday

4-Unit Play. #424. Take New England Patriots -9 over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday @ 4:25pm)

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Allen Eastman NFL Plays.
Take #414 Detroit (+3.5) over Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)

Take #417 Tampa Bay (-1.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)

Take #422 St. Louis (-3.5) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)

Take #423 Indianapolis (+9.5) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)

Take #431 San Diego (+7.5) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 18)

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XpertPicks

• Play Tampa Bay -1.5 over Carolina (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---30% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 1:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay has won and covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games and
they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 road games when
the total posted is between 45.5 and 49 points. Tampa Bay has covered
the spread in 5 of the last 6 games coming off an OVER the total and
they are averaging over 30 points a game on offense in road games this
season.

• Play New Orleans -4.5 over Oakland (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 4:00 PM EST

New Orleans has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games when
playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have also covered the
spread in 9 of the last 11 games coming off a home win. New Orleans
has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 overall games and they are
averaging over 27 points a game on offense this season.

• Play Baltimore -3.5 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:30 PM EST

Baltimore has won 19 of the last 25 games when the total posted is
between 35.5 and 42 points and they have also won 13 of the last 16
games vs. division opponents. Baltimore has won 17 of the last 22
games coming off an OVER the total and they have also won 23 of the
last 26 games after having won two of the last three games.

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Accuscore
Analyst: 8-2-1 Last Month - Week 11 Picks

Green Bay -3.5 at Detroit Lions
The Packers win this game 65% of the time and by double digits 38% of the time. The Lions have played poorly the past couple seasons against truly quality opponents, and have really struggled this season. Opposing quarterbacks against Detroit are having field days completing about two-thirds of their passes and nearly a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Lions just aren’t a good team this season. It might be time to stop waiting for that to happen.

Cleveland Browns +9.5 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys finally showed some life last week scoring 38 points in a big win over the Eagles, so why am I picking against them this weekend? Well for one, it was the Eagles who are the Titanic of this NFL season. Second, Dallas needed a punt return and interception return for scores in the fourth quarter to pull away late. The Browns are coming off a bye week, and should be healthy and rested for this game. They do have Trent Richardson in order to churn some rushing yards, and with the way Dallas has struggled with injuries to their own running backs, Cleveland could shorten the game by maintaining possession even without scoring too many points. AccuScore projects the Browns to cover 55 percent of the time.

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Wunderdog Sports

Game: Cleveland at Dallas (Sunday 11/18 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cleveland +8 (-110)

The Dallas Cowboys have the talent to win this game by plenty. But, over the past two years that talent has failed to manifest itself on the field. As a result, the Cowboys often find themselves in a battle week in week out regardless of the opponent. Going back to last year in a full season of games, Dallas is just 7-9 in their last 16, winning just two of those by more than 7 points. So 14 times they would have failed against this number, which is very telling. The fact is, Dallas plays up or down to their competition. Over the past three seasons, the underdog in Cowboys games has gone 34-12 ATS. Cleveland doesn't win many games, but they often find themselves in them, falling just short. The Browns are 2-11 straight-up in their last 13 games, but they have lost just one of the 11 by more than 10 points. Looking at those numbers from each side, as much as they shouldn't be, the Browns are likely to be in this game down the stretch. Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when taking 6 or more points, and are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Dallas has not played well at home, going 2-9 ATS in their last nine home games. Dallas is also 1-10 ATS the past two seasons after a win. Take the points and play on Cleveland.

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POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Pitt

3* Denv, GBay, Philly

2* Oakland, Clev

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Gold Medal Club NFL Selections 11/18/2012
#415 Arizona +10
#418 Carolina +1
#424 New England -9
#429 New Orleans -4.5
#434 Pittsburgh +3.5

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THE GOLDSHEET

★ ★ ★ ★KEY RELEASES ★ ★ ★ ★
NFL- TAMPA BAY by 13 over Carolina
NFL- DENVER by 19 over San Diego
NFL- OVER THE TOTAL in the Detroit-Green Bay game