11-22-12

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 22

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TCU (6 - 4) at TEXAS (8 - 2) - 11/22/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
TEXAS is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAF

Week 13

Trend Report

Thursday, November 22

7:30 PM
TCU vs. TEXAS
TCU is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
TCU is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Texas is 8-15-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home

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NFL Odds: Week 12 Opening Line Report
by Jason Logan

Your sweat pants are washed and pressed. Sixty percent of your fridge is home to a 20-pound half-frozen turkey. And you just tossed a few extra bucks into your sportsbook bankroll. It could only mean one thing: Thanksgiving is almost here.

The NFL is serving up triple helpings of action on Turkey Day, starting with Houston at Detroit at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Washington at Dallas at 4:15 p.m. ET, and finally New England at New York at 8:20 p.m. ET.

“Traditionally, we’re high on favorites with the Thanksgiving games. Everyone is home and everyone is betting,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club. “This year, the games are a little more competitive but we’re still high on the favorites.”

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)

Korner was baffled by what he saw at some of the online shops, when early spreads had Houston favored by only three points. The Texans were nearly knocked off by the lowly Jaguars Sunday but Houston – at 9-1 SU – is still one of the best teams in the NFL.

“Detroit is just 4-6 and not the team everyone expected this season,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -6. “I don’t understand why this came out at three. Come Thursday, who do you think everyone is going to be playing?”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)

The Cowboys, coming off a nail-biting overtime win against Cleveland, turn around to face a classic rival on Thanksgiving Day. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -4.5 while early lines offshore opened with America’s Team as a 3.5-point home fave.

“Washington is a live dog here,” says Korner. “That win was great for Dallas and the Cowboys do have their following, but I don’t think (the spread) will go either way. It should settle in around three.”

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+5.5, 49)

The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.

Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.

“Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn’t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,” he says. “I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he’s a difference maker. But it’s a good excuse to take this line down. There won’t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Thanksgiving Day

A special day calls for a special edition of NFL mismatches. And in the run of the NFL schedule, rarely do you find a more special day than Thanksgiving. We break down some of the underlying mismatches, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping Thursday’s action:

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49.5)

Texans’ pissed pass defense vs. Lions’ WR drama

Houston’s fourth-ranked defense had an uncharacteristic day last weekend, allowing the Jaguars’ second-stringer Chad Henne to pass for 354 yards and four touchdowns in a near overtime upset. Needless to say, defending the pass was priority No. 1 for the Texans during the short week.

“We didn’t play up to our standard,” Texans’ head coach Gary Kubiak told the Houston Chronicle. “We had an opportunity to start fast as a team, but then we started giving up big plays. We had a few assignment issues, which is unusual for us. That’s something we’ve got to fix. We had a couple of opportunities to make plays, but we didn’t make them.”

Detroit had its hands full with WR Titus Young last Sunday and will bench the second-year wideout after he was openly unhappy about his role in the offense and didn’t complete routes in last week’s loss to Green Bay. That leaves the Lions thin at receiver, allowing Houston to concentrate on Calvin Johnson.

Megatron was invisible in crunch time versus the Packers and was thrown to just once in the final three possessions, which came on the final play of the game. Green Bay locked up Johnson with a two-man trap in the secondary. Quarterback Matt Stafford was also sacked five times by the Packers and now faces the sack-happy Texans, who have 27 QB kills this year.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

Redskins’ rushing defense vs. Cowboys’ RB injuries

Dallas has become very one-dimensional since RB DeMarco Murray went down with the foot injury in Week 6. The Cowboys managed just 63 yards on 21 carries versus the Browns last week and rank 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Cleveland, knowing Dallas couldn’t run the ball, brought heavy pressure on Tony Romo, sacking him seven times and forcing a fumble late in the game.

Backup RB Felix Jones hasn’t been able to shoulder the load and has been less than 100 percent all season. Jones left the field in the fourth quarter Sunday, leaving the Cowboys with third-stringer Lance Dunbar. Murray is out again and Jones will limp into Thanksgiving with a bum knee.

Washington is doing one thing right on defense, stuffing the run. The Redskins are giving up just 94.6 yards on the ground per game (in part to their poor pass defense), and checked Philadelphia for just 80 yards on 21 carries and knocked RB LeSean McCoy out of the game in Sunday’s win. Foes are picking up the first down on the ground just 23.5 percent of the time versus Washington. Dallas has picked up a fresh 10 yards on just 22 percent of its run attempts this season.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)

Patriots’ no-huddle offense vs. Jets’ third down defense

The Patriots’ rapid pace on offense has produced an average of more than 28 first downs per game, including a stellar 51 percent success rate on third downs this year. New England hung 59 points on the Colts last Sunday, marching for 7.4 yards per play including 13.8 yards per pass completion from Tom Brady.

Sure, Rob Gronkowski is out and Aaron Hernandez is not 100 percent, but Bill Belichick’s offense has proven it’s not about the players but the system. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman – Wes Welker 2.0 – were targeted a combined 18 times Sunday, posting a total of 12 catches for 138 yards and one score. The Pats’ no-huddle will help these slippery receivers shed the coverage for big yardage.

New York’s defense has done well against the pass, allowing just over 200 yards per game (in part to a porous run stop) and “held” Brady to 259 yards and two TDs in their overtime loss to New England in Week 7. However, New York has watched opponents convert third downs at a 42.86 percent rate (third worst in the NFL) this season. The Jets complained about the Pats’ no-huddle earlier this year, arguing about substitution rules, and could be sucking wind when it counts thanks to the short-week Thanksgiving schedule.

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Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions Point Spread - Pick

Houston Texans (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thanksgiving Day, November 22, 12:30 p.m. EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
TV: Fox
by Vesper Abadon, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: Hou -3/Det +3
Over/Under Total: 49

The Houston Texans were projected to be AFC Super Bowl contenders prior to the start of the season, and through ten games they've not disappointed. They're an NFL best 9-1, tied with the NFC's Atlanta Falcons, and a cinch to make the Playoffs. On the other hand, the Detroit Lions, who finished in 10-6 in 2011, have fizzled in the early going and are a lackluster 4-6.

So what has these teams, which are both in the offense and defense top ten, at opposite ends of the results spectrum? The answer is simple-the Texans are better balanced and more disciplined. Their offense is 6th in the league thanks to an 8th-ranked rushing game, which averages 136.7 yards per game (YPG), and 12th-ranked aerial attack at 246.2 YPG.

Running back Arian Foster has been the team's workhorse, carrying 249 times (more than any other back in the league) for 949 yards (3.8 AVG) and a league-leading ten touchdowns. Overall Foster is listed as the fourth-best running back in the NFL through Week 11, behind just Doug Martin (3rd), Marshawn Lynch (2nd) and Adrian Peterson (1st).

What's more, the Texans' offense also thrives through the air. Last week, quarterback Matt Schaub threw a career-high five touchdowns passes and completed a franchise-record 43 passes for 527 yards, second most in NFL history, in a 43-37 overtime win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. More than half those yards, 273 to be exact, went to wide receiver Andre Johnson, who caught 14 passes and scored a single touchdown. Needless to say, the Texans have a plethora of weapons both on the ground and through the air.

Defensively the Texans are pretty good too; in fact, they're ranked 4th-best in the NFL as they hold opponents to an average of 299.2 YPG, which includes 213.6 YPG through the air and 85.6 YPG on the ground. They're allowing a third-down conversion rate of just 25.6%, and hold opposing teams to an average of just 18 points per game. To put it simply, it's extremely difficult to move the ball against the Texans.

With that said, if any team can do it, it'd be the Lions, who have the 2nd-best offense in the league. That comes courtesy of the best passing game in the NFL with 301.8 YPG, and the 23rd-ranked rushing offense at 99.9 YPG.

The rushing game, featuring Mikel Leshoure (124 carries for 502 yards and five touchdowns), isn't overly impressive, but has helped open up things for Matthew Stafford. The young quarterback has completed 265 of 427 passes for 2,988 yards, 12 touchdowns, and ten interceptions-giving him a fourth-best 82.6 rating among quarterbacks. Obviously his favorite target is Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, who has hauled in 65 receptions for 1,117 yards (17.2 Avg) and three touchdowns. While he hasn't found the endzone as frequently as last year, Johnson continues to show he's one of the best at what he does.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions hold opponents to an average of 328.1 YPG, which includes 214 passing YPG and 114.1 rushing YPG-good enough for the 10th-best defense in the league.

Vesper Abadon's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I can't think of a better way to kickoff Thanksgiving Day than with this game. The last time these two teams met was way back on October 19th, 2008 when the Texans won 28-21. Before that was September 19, 2004 when the Lions won 28-16. It's a rare inter-conference matchup, and that always makes for a sweet treat.

I think that Houston may have peaked already and I also think Detroit is starting to heat up. I expect a battle on Turkey Day with the Lions pulling off a major upset which will leave many with a second stomach ache.
I'm "gobbling" up the +3.5 with the Lions!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Point Spread - Pick

Washington Redskins (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday, November 22nd, 2012, 4:15 p.m. EST
Where: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: FOX
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: Wash. +3.5/DAL -3.5
Over/Under Total: 48

The Dallas Cowboys annual Thanksgiving Day game will have a new twist this season, when they welcome their NFC East rival Washington Redskins into Cowboys Stadium for a battle between wildcard hopefuls in the afternoon contest on Fox.

While both teams enter the Turkey Day contest fresh off of victories, the way they scored those wins were extremely different.

It was just 14 days ago when Redskins coach Mike Shanahan was talking about "evaluating talent" the rest of the regular season, following an embarrassing, 21-13, loss at home to the two-win Carolina Panthers. Following Sunday's impressive, 31-6, demolishing of the hapless Philadelphia Eagles, a game where rookie QB Robert Griffin III threw four touchdowns and looked like a future superstar, now suddenly the Redskins are back to talking about "believing" again that they have a "legitimate shot" at getting back into the NFC East race and NFC wild card hunt.

But while the Redskins were busy drilling the Eagles, the Cowboys were running for their lives against the Cleveland Browns.

Dallas pushed the game into overtime with a length of the field drive in just over a minute to tie the game at, 20-20, then took advantage of a "generous" non-fumble call on Miles Austin in overtime to sneak away with a gift-win over the Browns, 23-20. With seven more sacks Tony Romo has become a human pinball, and with starting left tackle Tyron Smith out with a bum ankle against the Browns, now the Cowboys issues along the offensive front have been upgraded to critical with a short week to prepare for the annual holiday game just a few days away.

Oddsmakers set the opening point spread with the Cowboys as 4-point favorites at home, but within hours the betting public that just finished watching the Redskins look unbeatable and the Cowboys barely get past the two-win Browns hammered the Skins so much that the number has dropped to Dallas minus -3.5.

The over/under total opened at 46 and quickly moved up to 48 before the close of business on Sunday night.

The short week is certainly going to have a huge effect on the Cowboys offense for Thursday. Dallas has already been pulling guys off the street to fill roles along the offensive line, and now with Smith and his ankle a likely "game time" decision, who knows is Romo will be able to take advantage of the Redskins weak secondary (allowing 289 ypg - 29th) in the passing game.

Dallas has virtually stopped trying to run the ball too, and with DeMarco Murray (foot) and backup Felix Jones (knee) both questionable for Thursday, the few carries the Cowboys give to running backs these days might go to third-stringer Lance Dunbar.

Last week the Redskins offense looked tough to beat, but in reality it was all RGIII (and the Eagles crappy defense). The rookie was 14-of-15 and threw for four scores, but he is also the Skins best running back (84 yards, 7.0 ypc), and the workload wasn't a factor coming out of the bye week but that hasn't always been the case this season. Griffin will be facing a strong Dallas pass defense (211 ypg - 6th), and Demarcus Ware and his 10 sacks coming off the edge, so if the Redskins think they can get away with him being 90 percent of their offense again this week they might want to think twice.

Dallas did sweep the season series last year, which is part of the reason the Redskins wound up with RGIII in the draft. However, both games were much closer than you'd have thought, with the Cowboys winning at home in Cowboys Stadium, 18-16, in September before scoring a 27-24 win in D.C. in November.

Dallas has not been a good wager in games against the NFC East however, going 4-11 ATS in the last three seasons. Washington has been the opposite, going 10-4 ATS during the same span.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: With a short week and so many issues along their offensive line, I have no idea how the Cowboys will be able to get prepared for this game. But Washington will not be as explosive as they were against the Eagles. RGIII won't carve up the Cowboys, and Romo will be running for his life again on Thursday.
Take the under of 48.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Point Spread - Pick

New England Patriots (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday, November 22nd, 2012, 8:20 p.m. EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
TV: NBC
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: NE -7/NYJ +7
Over/Under Total: 48.5

If you can stay awake long enough with a belly fully of turkey and all of the fixings, the National Football League will treat you to a third helping of football when the New England Patriots take on the New York Jets in an AFC East battle at MetLife Stadium on Thanksgiving night on NBC.

The Patriots and Tom Brady no doubt will be the main feature of the Turkey Day primetime telecast, but it's going to be very hard for them to top last week's performance in their, 59-24, victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Brady threw for 331 yards and three scores, the Pats offense added two more on the ground, the special teams unit returned a kick for a score and even the maligned Patriots defense kicked in to the rout with two interceptions returned for a score as they thoroughly dominated the Colts and rookie QB Andrew Luck.

But the Jets are also coming off of a big victory, as they snapped a three-game losing streak with their most complete game of the season so far in their, 27-13, win on the road in St. Louis last Sunday. With 41 running plays called and only 21 passes, the Jets offense finally returned to their run-first approach and it paid off with the Jets highest offensive output in over a month.

With a three-game lead in the AFC East standings the Patriots could deliver the final knockout blow to the Jets with a win on Thanksgiving, but New York will certainly do everything in their power and then some to make sure that doesn't happen with a huge primetime audience watching on NBC.

With the point spread still less than 24 hours old, there's already been a lot of line movement on this game too. New England opened as a full touchdown favorite following their 59-point outburst on Sunday, but with a bunch of sharp money coming in on the home-dog Jets the number has dropped down as low as 5.5 at a majority of sportsbooks, with a bounce back up to 7.

The over/under total has also moved several points already, opening at 51 before dropping to 49 or 48.5 at most sportsbooks.

Of course it's going to be very hard for the Patriots and Brady to replicate last week's scoring binge. But if you look at the way the Patriots offense has been attacking this season, you'd almost expect Brady to defer to his running game considering the Jets have been gouged repeatedly by the run to the tune of 142 yards a game allowed on the ground (30th in NFL). Quietly the Patriots are 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (143 ypg), so at least on paper it looks like an easy way to attack and keep Brady from getting knocked around unnecessarily.

The Jets offense will likely try and take advantage of the Pats 30th-ranked pass defense (290 ypg), but with quarterback Mark Sanchez struggling (193 ypg - 29th) and the Jets receiving core racked with injury, it's a million-dollar mystery as to how they are going to do it. Plus, the Pats went out and traded for corner Aqib Talib to try and shore up their weak secondary, and the Tampa Bay reject has already made Bill Belichick look like a genius with a pick-six in his first game in a Patriots uniform.

But this is an AFC East rivalry game, and things are never that easy or that black and white.

Last season the Patriots swept the season series against the rival Jets, winning a, 37-16, decision at MetLife in November that propelled them into the post season. New England has already won the first meeting between these two teams this year too, a 29-26 overtime victory on a 49-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal just four weeks ago in week seven in mid-October.

Part of New England's strength the past few seasons has been their ability to play on the road, going 14-6 SU and 14-5 ATS. They've also gone 13-3 SU against teams in the AFC East, but it hasn't always translated into cashing a ticket since they are just 9-7 ATS over the past three seasons.

The Jets have been hard to sweep over the years, going 6-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in games where they are avenging a loss against an opponent from earlier in the season.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: A few times a year a really fishy line comes out and this qualifies as one of those times. If you'd has asked me what the spread on this game would be prior to it coming out I'd have boldly told you around -13.5. Then we get a 7? And it drops to 5.5? Then public money moves it back up to 7? Something stinks here. All signs point to a NE romp, HOWEVER, as much as I think I might know the people that move the lines know more. I'm recommending a pass on this game but if you have to bet it, take the Jets because fishy lines almost always equal fishy results.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 94-57 (.623)
ATS: 69-87 (.442)
ATS Vary Units: 307-494 (.383)
Over/Under: 84-72 (.538)
Over/Under Vary Units: 333-256 (.565)

Thursday, November 22, 2012
Houston 29, DETROIT 23
DALLAS 28, Washington 19
New England 33, N.Y. JETS 24

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NCAA Football Game Picks

TCU at Texas

The Horned Frogs look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games off a bye week. TCU is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Horned Frogs favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: TCU (+7). Here are all of the weekday games.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST

Game 109-110: TCU at Texas (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: TCU 99.510; Texas 96.583 Dunkel Line: TCU by 3; 60 Vegas Line: Texas by 7; 57 1/2 Dunkel Pick: TCU (+7); Over

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NFL

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)—Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)—RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)—Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

New England at NY Jets

The Patriots look to build on their 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. New England is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22 Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (11/21)

Game 103-104: Houston at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.139; Detroit 136.551 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: Washington at Dallas (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.590; Dallas 131.544 Dunkel Line: Even; 51 Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 48 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.851; NY Jets 128.310 Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 48 Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

(NFL) Texans -3-
(NFL) Redskins +3
(NFL) Patriots -7
(CFB) TCU +7-

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFLBettingPicks / Kevin

2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys - COWBOYS -3 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)
The Washington Redskins enter the week 4-6 and 2-3 on the road, while the Cowboys are 5-5 and 2-2 at home this year. The Redskins blew out the Eagles 31-6 last week, while the Cowboys needed overtime to beat the Browns at home as 8 point favorites. It seems as if the public is looking at last week's performances and making their picks based on the Redskins looking good and the Cowboys barely beating a then 2-7 team at home. Take note though that the Redskins are just 1-3 over their last 4 games, with three straight losses against Carolina, Pittsburgh and New York Giants. The Cowboys have won two straight games, including handling the same Eagles team Washington beat at home last week 38-23 in Philadelphia. They are 3-2 over their last 5, with losses coming against the Giants and @Atlanta. The Redskins have the advantage on offense so far this season, ranking 8th and scoring just over 4 more ppg than the Cowboys (who rank 11th in the league). But with that said, the Cowboys rank 7th overall defensively and are giving up 3 less papg than the 26th ranked Washington defense. The Redskins are also 29th in the league against the pass. RG3 has been better than Tony Romo at the QB position this year, but with Dallas' pass rush and Washington's weak pass defense I wouldn't be surprised to see Romo have the better Thanksgiving Day. Take note that the Cowboys historically play well hosting their Thanksgiving Day game. They should have an even bigger advantage with just 3.5 days of rest for each team, and the Cowboys not having to travel. Note tha the Redskins are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a straight up win. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. With very limited time to prepare for a divisional opponent on Thanksgiving Day I think the Redskins will have some troubles on Thursday. RG3's natural ability won't be enough to get them past Dallas on Thanksgiving. Take the Cowboys to win and cover in a big divisional game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

Orlando tournament
--West Virginia looked awful in 84-50 debacle at Gonzaga 10 days ago, expect better showing here; Huggins has young team that will improve as season goes on. Marist has all five starters back from 14-18 team, but a 1-2 start includes losses to Stony Brook/Colgate, not a good sign.
-- Davidson has 5 starters back from 25-8 team, but lost at New Mexico, Milwaukee to start season- they lost to Vanderbilt last two years, 87-83 at home LY, 80-52 in Nashville in '11. Commodores lost all 5 starters on LY's 25-11 team- they got crushed 74-48 at Oregon in only road game.
-- Oklahoma has 5 starters back from 15-16 team; they won at a decent Tex-Arlington team 63-59 last game. Big X road favorites are 4-5 vs the spread. UTEP lost last game by 21 at Arizona; they're starting three sophomores. C-USA road underdogs of 6 or less points are 5-3.
-- Gonzaga has 4 starters back from 26-7 team; they won first three tilts, all by 34+ points, including 84-50 win over West Virginia. Clemson has 5 freshman/6 sophs, very young team. ACC road teams are 12-7 against spread, 5-3 as road dogs. WCC favorites are 6-8, 0-2 on road.

Atlantis tournament
-- Missouri lost 4 starters from LY, but UConn transfer Oriakhi is stud inside; Tigers beat three stiffs to start season, go up in class vs Stanford squad that got upset at home by Belmont in last game. SEC favorites are 12-9 vs spread, 2-4 on road. Pac-12 road underdogs are 5-4.
-- Duke is shooting 55% inside arc, 38% outside it in 3-0 start; they have 4 starters back from 27-7 team, already have 75-68 win over Kentucky on neutral floor. Minnesota is 4-0, with 15-point win over Richmond, a pretty good team. Big Dozen road underdogs are 2-6 against spread.
-- Memphis has 4 starters back from 26-9 team; they start four juniors, but only beat two stiffs so far. VCU lost by hoop to Wichita; they have 4 starters back from 29-7 team. CAA single digit underdogs are 9-3 vs the spread. C-USA favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 2-2 away from home.
-- Louisville is 3-0 with wins by 26+ points; they've got three starters back from 30-10 team, have forced turnovers on 32.6% of possessions so far this season. Northern Iowa has 4 starters back from 20-14 team; they've beaten three stiffs, including 84-81 win over Toledo.

Anaheim tournament
-- Pacific has 5 starters back from 11-19 team; they lost first two games vs D-I teams, by 5 to Fresno, 2 to Oral Roberts. Xavier lost all 5 of its tarters from 23-12 team, but they whacked Butler already. Underdogs from Big West are 10-7 on road. Atlantic 16 road favorites are 5-3.
-- 1-2 Drexel's first three games were all decided by 2 points or in OT, a shaky start for team expected to win CAA; Dragons have 4 starters back from 29-7 team. St Mary's has 4 starters back from 27-6 team; 6 of their 7 rotation guys are juniors/seniors. WCC favorites are 7-7, 0-2 on road.
-- Rice was decimated by transfers this summer; they've got one starter back from LY, have 5 frosh/sophs in top six players, already lost by 13 to St Thomas, whoever that is. Georgia Tech has 3 freshmen starting on team that has all 5 starters back, so they've upgraded talent.
-- Cal Bears have 3 starters back from 24-10 team, are 3-0 with 11-point win at Denver, a decent win- Crabbe is one of best guards in west. Drake has 4 staters back from 18-16 team; 5 of their top 6 guys are freshman/ sophomores. MVC road underdogs are 7-2 against the spread.

Great Alaskan Shootout
-- Oral Roberts has 3 starters back from 27-7 team; they lost at UTEP by 20, won by hoop at Pacific, as they get ready for first season in new league, Southland. LMU has 3 starters back from 21-13 team; they lost first road game by 15 at SMU. WCC underdogs are 4-5 vs spread.
-- Charlotte has good recruits to go with 3 returning starters from 13-17 team; they start 2 frosh/3 sophs, whacked three stiffs to start this year. Texas State lost to SMU at home by 3; they've got 2 starters back from 13-17 team. WAC underdogs are 6-10, 4-6 away from home.