11-22-12

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

11/22/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 484-151 (.762)
ATS: 191-194 (.496)
ATS Vary Units: 765-883 (.464)
Over/Under: 50-41 (.549)
Over/Under Vary Units: 77-67 (.535)

Battle 4 Atlantis
1st Round at Atlantis Resort, Paradise Island, The Bahamas
Duke vs. Minnesota: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Louisville 68, Northern Iowa 54
Memphis 65, Vcu 62
Missouri 78, Stanford 71

Mainland Bracket at Fort Myers, FL
Samford 67, Alcorn State 63
Florida Gulf Coast 70, Toledo 69

Carrs/Safeway Great Alaska Shootout
1st Round at Sullivan Arena, Anchorage, AK
Charlotte 78, Texas State 70
Oral Roberts 72, Loyola Marymount 71

DIRECTV Classic
1st Round at Anaheim Convention Center Arena, Anaheim, CA
California 72, Drake 65
Rice 61, Georgia Tech 59
Saint Mary's 69, Drexel 64
Xavier 75, Pacific 56

Old Spice Classic
1st Round at HP Fieldhouse, Lake Buena Vista, FL
Gonzaga 71, Clemson 61
Oklahoma 64, Utep 60
Vanderbilt 77, Davidson 69
West Virginia 75, Marist 59

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 940-697 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free play Thurs: NE Pats -7

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CAPPERS ACCESS
Texans
Redskins
Patriots
TCU

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NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Cheat Sheet

Thanksgiving is about taking a break to reflect with family and friends, but it’s also a time to get some tasty bets down on NFL action.

If you’ve been too busy jumping through the Thanksgiving hoops to handicap Thursday’s slate - don’t worry. Our NFL Thanksgiving Day cheat sheet comes to the rescue like gravy on dry turkey.

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Texans are coming off a near-upset to Jacksonville Sunday and visit the Lions for their first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history. Detroit has dropped back-to-back games and hasn’t fared well on Thanksgiving Day in recent years, going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004.

Detroit will be without WR Titus Young, who is being benched for behavior issues, leaving the Lions very thin at receiver. Veteran wideout Nate Burleson is already out for the season, allowing opponents to double-up on star WR Calvin Johnson.

Tight end Brandon Pettigrew could see more passes his way and RB Mikel Leshoure may have to shoulder a heavier load on the ground, in order to take pressure off QB Matt Stafford Thursday.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

This classic NFC East rivalry has been dominated by the underdog in recent seasons, with the pup going 22-6 ATS in the past 29 meeting between the Redskins and Cowboys. Dallas won both encounters with Washington last season but failed to cover in those – and the last four meetings with the Skins overall.

The Cowboys are another Thanksgiving Day mainstay and - unlike the Lions - they have thrived on the holiday, going 8-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001. That goes against Dallas’ current ATS slide at home, where it has failed to cover in its last seven home games overall, including last week’s OT win against the Browns.

Washington rookie QB Robert Griffin III won’t be in an unfamiliar atmosphere at Cowboys Stadium Thursday. During his college career at Baylor, the former Heisman winner played twice in the $1 billion venue. The Redskins have lost all three trips to “Jerry’s World” and are 0-6 SU all-time versus Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+7, 48)

No wonder this spread is back up to a touchdown after dipping as low as 5.5 earlier in the week. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these clubs, including New York’s near upset of New England at Gillette Stadium in Week 7.

The Patriots won’t have tight end Rob Gronkowski for this Thanksgiving Day game but fellow TE Aaron Hernandez could return to action after missing time with an ankle injury. New England could hand the bulk of the playbook over the rushing tandem of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who have quietly given the Pats the fifth-best ground attack in the NFL (142.9 yards per game).

New York’s defense has been gashed on the ground this season, allowing foes to rumble for 141.7 yards an outing – 30th in the league. Gang Green allowed the Rams to run for 124 yards on just 20 carries in last week’s win in St. Louis (6.2 yards per carry), and watched New England rush for 131 yards in Week 7. The Patriots’ no-huddle attack will drain the Jets’ battery if they line up quick and keep to the ground.

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Texans at Lions: What Bettors Need to Know

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Detroit Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game for 73 years. It has not gone their way recently. The Lions will be looking to snap an eight-game losing streak on Thanksgiving when they host the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Texans needed overtime to squeeze past lowly Jacksonville on Sunday but own the best record in the AFC at 9-1. Detroit has dropped two straight and sits in a familiar position - last in the NFC North.

The Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers last Thanksgiving - a game most notable for Ndamukong Suh’s stomp of an offensive lineman that ended up earning him a two-game suspension. Suh and company rank in the top 10 in the league defensively as far as yardage is concerned but sit in the bottom third in scoring defense, thanks in part to an offense that has left it in bad position with turnovers. The Lions can’t afford to do that against the Texans, who broke out for 43 points on Sunday and have yet to lose on the road.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Houston opened as big as 3.5 with most books dealing -3, which has remained steady. The total is set at 51 after moving up from 49.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Detroit is right there with mashed potatoes as a Thanksgiving staple. The Lions are 11-16 SU and ATS and 14-13 over/under on Thanksgiving since 1985, including going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004 with a 2-6 over/under count in that span. This will be Houston's first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-1, 7-3 ATS): After winning two straight ugly games with its defense, Houston lit it up offensively on Sunday, totaling 640 yards. Matt Schaub passed for a career-high 527 yards and five touchdowns and Andre Johnson broke out of a slump in a big way with 273 yards and a TD on 14 receptions. The Texans had held their previous three opponents to 13 points or less and are entering the most difficult stretch of the schedule. Houston will play its next three games on the road, with trips to Tennessee and New England coming after Detroit. The Texans struggled in pass coverage against Jaguars backup Chad Henne on Sunday and will have to get that fixed before facing the Lions, who lead the league in passing offense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-6, 4-6 ATS): Passing is the one thing the offense has done consistently well this season, though quarterback Matt Stafford has only 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been able to pile up the yardage but have struggled in the red zone. The Lions had to settle for two field goals inside the 10-yard line and Stafford had a pass intercepted in the end zone in Sunday’s 24-20 home loss to the Packers. Johnson caught the lone touchdown pass in that contest but, like Stafford, he also lost a fumble. Detroit might have to run the table to make the playoffs for a second straight season, and a schedule that includes Houston, Atlanta, Chicago and Green Bay over the last six games makes that a difficult proposition

TRENDS:

* Texans are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Lions are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Texans last six road games.
* Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions OT Jeff Backus left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Thursday. He has started 186 straight games.

2. Schaub’s 527-yard performance tied for the second-biggest passing day in NFL history. Norm Van Brocklin has held the record of 554 yards since Sept. 28, 1951.

3. Texans RB Arian Foster lost a fumble for the first time this season against the Jaguars.

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Redskins at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

While hardly aesthetically pleasing, the Dallas Cowboys have put together a pair of wins to position themselves in the discussion for a potential postseason berth. The talk could get louder should the Cowboys topple the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving when the NFC East rivals meet in Arlington, Texas. Dallas moved one game behind the division-leading New York Giants after posting a 23-20 overtime victory over Cleveland on Sunday.

Rookie Robert Griffin III had a much easier time of it on Sunday as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner tossed a season-best four touchdowns in a 31-6 triumph over reeling Philadelphia. Washington snapped a three-game losing skid and preserved its slim postseason aspirations. The Redskins will look to gain ground in the division as they continue their stretch of playing five NFC East rivals over the final seven weeks of the season.

TV: 4:15 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Dallas opened as high as -4 but most books are dealing 3.5. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Dallas is a mainstay of the Thanksgiving schedule, going 15-12 SU and 16-11 ATS (13-14 over/under) on Thanksgiving since 1985, including a 5-1 SU and ATS record since 2006. Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day since 1985 with a 2-1 over/under record in those game.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Veteran wide receiver Santana Moss found the end zone for the fourth time in as many weeks after splitting double coverage to reel in a 61-yard scoring strike from Griffin. Moss, who matched a career high with six touchdowns this season, has traditionally torched the Cowboys (78 receptions, 1,125 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games). After failing to force a turnover in its previous two games, Washington did so three times during the first half on Sunday.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5, 4-6 ATS): Wide receiver Dez Bryant benefited from the pass-heavy offense to reel in 12 catches for a career-high 145 yards and a touchdown. Tony Romo and the mercurial Bryant will likely be licking their chops when they face Washington's porous 29th-ranked pass defense, which is yielding 289.2 yards per contest. With DeMarco Murray (foot) sidelined for a fifth straight game, Felix Jones matched a career high with his third touchdown run. Jones injured his knee late in Sunday's game but is expected to play on Thanksgiving.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Washington S Brandon Meriweather made his season debut versus Philadelphia after being sidelined with a left knee injury. Meriweather, who intercepted rookie Nick Foles, tore his ACL and is lost for the season.

2. After leading the league with 13 interceptions through seven games, Romo has four touchdowns and no picks over his last three games.

3. Dallas has won six of the last seven meetings - including a season sweep in 2011 by a total of five points.

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Patriots at Jets: What Bettors Need to Know

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)

Riding a four-game winning streak, the New England Patriots have to prepare for Thursday night’s game against the host New York Jets without tight end Rob Gronkowski. In the midst of another dominant season Gronkowski broke his forearm in the Patriots’ win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Gronkowski underwent surgery Monday morning and could miss the rest of the regular season. With him sidelined, the Patriots may look to run the ball more against the Jets, who are sixth in the NFL against the pass but rank 30th vs. the run, giving up an average of 141 rushing yards.

The Jets finally got back on the right path in beating the St. Louis Rams to end their three-game slide and rebound from two straight blowout losses. New York needs to go on a winning streak to get back in the playoff picture. It trails New England by three games in the AFC East standings but is just two out of a congested wild card race.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 44s. Winds are expected to blow south at 1 mph.

LINE: New England opened as a touchdown favorite but was bet down as low as 5.5 before buyback came back on the Patriots. The total has moved from 50.5 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: The Jets and Patriots have only played three Thanksgiving Day games each since 1985. New England is 2-1 SU and ATS and 2-1 over/under in those games while New York is 1-2 SU and ATS with a 1-2 over/under count.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3, 6-4 ATS): The loss of Gronkowski is a major setback. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez has missed six games overall and three straight with a nagging ankle injury. Hernandez has been listed as questionable for several weeks and played just twice since sustaining the injury early in Week 2. Although New England expects him to be ready for Thursday, how well he’ll play is uncertain and tight ends have been a crucial part of the Patriots’ top-ranked offense. New England scored 59 points in its win against Indianapolis, the second time this season it has topped 50 points. The rest of the NFL has only done it twice.

ABOUT THE JETS (4-6, 6-4 ATS): New York finally got its offense in gear in its 27-13 win at St. Louis. Reserve running back Bilal Powell ran for the first two touchdowns of his career and QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and turnover-free. Sanchez ranks last among starters in completion percentage but fired a scoring pass against the Rams and completed 75 percent of his passes. The Jets nearly won at New England in Week 7. New York scored 13 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with 1:37 to play. But the Jets watched Tom Brady move the team into field goal position to tie the game and New England won it in overtime with another field goal.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New York.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New York.
* Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jets PK Nick Folk booted a pair of 51-yard field goals against the Rams. He has missed just three of 17 attempts this season, two of which were blocked.

2. Gronkowski scored twice against the Jets earlier in the season.

3. Sanchez threw for a season-high 328 yards in the 29-26 loss at New England.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TCU at Texas: What Bettors Need to Know

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns (-7, 58)

Texas starts what will potentially be a new Thanksgiving rivalry when it hosts Texas Christian, their first meeting as members of the Big 12 Conference. The No. 15 Longhorns have played 75 games on Thanksgiving, including 64 - and the last four years - against Texas A&M. But the Longhorns' series with the Aggies ended with Texas A&M's defection to the Southeastern Conference. Texas, which finishes its regular season at Kansas State on Dec. 1, has won four straight since its 63-21 loss to Oklahoma on Oct. 13. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 23-10 loss to the then-No. 1 Wildcats on Nov. 10 and have lost three of their last four games.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Texas opened -8 and has been bet down to a touchdown favorite. The total opened at 58 and has remained steady at the number.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow south at 7 mph.

ABOUT TCU (6-4, 3-4 Big 12, 4-6 ATS): The Horned Frogs have been plagued by turnovers with 11 in their last four games. Coupled with TCU's penchant for penalties (21st-most in the country at 7.2 per game), the Horned Frogs have made life difficult on themselves. Trevone Boykin, who took over at quarterback after Casey Pachall left school to deal with substance abuse, has eight interceptions, but has been brilliant at times with four touchdown passes in back-to-back games - a school record. Running backs Matthew Tucker and freshman B.J.Catalon combined for 108 yards on 18 carries against Kansas State and will try to exploit the nation's No. 98 rushing defense. TCU's defense is 16th in the country at 326.3 yards allowed.

ABOUT TEXAS (8-2, 5-2, 5-5 ATS): Sophomore quarterback David Ash has responded well to being pulled from the Longhorns' 21-17 victory at Kansas on Oct. 27. He has completed 72 percent of his passes and thrown for five touchdowns in the last two games, and was 25-of-31 for a career-high 364 yards in the Longhorns' 33-7 victory over Iowa State on Nov. 10. Ash's two primary targets are deep threat Mike Davis (45 catches, 18.6 yards per catch - fifth in the nation, seven touchdowns) and underneath option Jaxon Shipley (40, 12.5, five). The Longhorns have allowed 15.3 points per game in facing three of the four worst scoring offenses in the Big 12 in the last three contests after yielding 45.6 in their previous five.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
* Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 11-1 in Horned Frogs last 12 games following a bye week.
* Under is 5-2 in Longhorns last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas will be the fourth team TCU has faced this season which did not play the week before. The Horned Frogs are 3-0 in such games with victories over SMU (24-16), Baylor (49-41) and West Virginia (39-38 in double overtime).

2. TCU, which will play on Thanksgiving for the first time since 1928, has won 46 straight games when rushing for more yards than passing.

3. Texas leads the series 61-20-1 and has won the last four meetings, including 34-13 in 2007. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs were members of the Southwest Conference and met every season from 1927 until the league disbanded in 1995.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Happy Thanksgiving

Thursday November 22nd 2012

Thanksgiving Day Picks

Houston -3.5 over Detroit
The Lions Offense just does not have the depth this year to spread the ball around and make big plays. We all know who the ball is going to today. Calvin Johnson is the man, but the Houston Defense will keep a good eye on him. Detroit does not have much of a running game and I just don’t see them cracking this Houston Defense or being able to handle the 3-4 defense. The Texans are stacked on both sides of the ball and obviously will not take the Lions lightly after last weeks scare. Take Houston.

Redskins +3 over Cowboys
First are foremost the NFL has a superstar that they want to showcase today to million of viewers sitting around the TV with their family. It is good for the NFL for guys like RG3 and Luck to shine. Its sells a lot of jerseys and that is what the NFL is really all about. Money! Dallas just does not have the offensive line or running game to be competitive this year. This team is also thin at wide receiver and I just don’t see much scoring. This team has an easy schedule from here on out and I think will make a late playoff push in the NFC East when they get healthy. The Cowboys have talent, but injuries are hard to overcome. Washington has a very good offense that will find away to put up points. The Redskins Defense is nothing to brag about, but I think its one of those games that the Dallas Offense just does not have the man power to click and put up points. Take Washington

Jets/Patriots Under 48.5
In the earlier meeting the Patriots got a kickoff return for a touchdown and Gronkowski snagged two touchdowns. The Pats also got themselves a safety. Gronk is out today which hurts redzone offense and I really am not counting on special teams TD’s or safeties. For the most part Brady had an average day while Sanchez had a career day and he still lost. The Patriots have a banged up offensive line and this could be a game the Jets steal at home, but I just don’t trust this team at all. New England now has a really good cornerback in Talib from Tampa and the Jets just do not have the skilled receivers to move the ball up and down the field. I don’t see this game being high scoring at all. Take the Under.

TCU +7.5 over Texas
Both teams are very young with a lot of first time starters. The only thing that impresses me about either team is the TCU Defense which has so many young faces, but still are playing very well. The real key to this game lies with a man who wont be on the field playing and that is head coach Gary Patterson. This guy is a football genius that will find away to get to the Texas Quarterback. The Longhorns are so thin at linebacker and have defensive line issues that I think TCU will be able to move the ball even with a young QB. Trevone Boykin has proven he can pickup big road wins. This should be a great game and I think it comes down to the wire. Take TCU.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* TCU +7.5

50* Texans / Lions Over 49.5

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1unit wagers / Steven Kane

1* Cowboys(-2.5) Buy 1/2 point

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Thursday... In College Hoops take Texas State +8 over Charlotte