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DR BOB
Strong Opinion = Detroit Lions
The biggest difference between these teams this season has been turnovers and the Texans winning their close games (4-0 in games decided by 7 points or less while Detroit is 3-4 in close games). Houston has outplayed their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl against a schedule that is 0.2 yppl easier than average, they the Texans have only been 0.4 yppl better than an average team this season. Detroit, meanwhile, has outplayed their opponents 5.6 yppl to 5.3 yppl while facing a schedule that is 0.2 yppl better than average, so the Lions have been 0.5 yppl better than average. Houston is +7 in turnover margin while Detroit is -7 in turnover margin, so the Texans have been better able to turn their yards into points. Houston quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown 9 interceptions while Detroit’s Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 picks, so the turnover differential between these teams have been the result of more randomness than skill (like Houston losing only 2 fumbles all season and Detroit’s good defense only recovering 5 fumbles).
My math model projects turnovers to be even (actually, Houston with a 0.05 advantage) and this game is likely to be very close if turnovers are not the factor that they have been for these two teams. The math projects both teams at 5.3 yppl and gives Detroit a slight 18 yards edge in total yards because they tend to run more plays, and overall the math favors the Lions by ½ a point in this game.
Thanksgiving day favorites have been on a roll lately (17-2 ATS since 1988), but Detroit applies to a very good 81-26-4 ATS situation that is 4-2 ATS for dogs on turkey day and the Lions also apply to a 34-8-1 ATS home underdog bounce-back situation. Detroit outplayed Green Bay as a home dog last week but were -3 in turnovers (-2 in fumbles) and still would have covered the spread despite the turnovers if not for a last minute Packers’ field goal. If Detroit is negative -2 or more in turnovers again then they won’t win this game, but I’d expect the Lions to win if turnovers are even or in Detroit’s favor. I’ll consider Detroit a Strong Opinion in this game.
Strong Opinion = Detroit Lions
The biggest difference between these teams this season has been turnovers and the Texans winning their close games (4-0 in games decided by 7 points or less while Detroit is 3-4 in close games). Houston has outplayed their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl against a schedule that is 0.2 yppl easier than average, they the Texans have only been 0.4 yppl better than an average team this season. Detroit, meanwhile, has outplayed their opponents 5.6 yppl to 5.3 yppl while facing a schedule that is 0.2 yppl better than average, so the Lions have been 0.5 yppl better than average. Houston is +7 in turnover margin while Detroit is -7 in turnover margin, so the Texans have been better able to turn their yards into points. Houston quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown 9 interceptions while Detroit’s Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 picks, so the turnover differential between these teams have been the result of more randomness than skill (like Houston losing only 2 fumbles all season and Detroit’s good defense only recovering 5 fumbles).
My math model projects turnovers to be even (actually, Houston with a 0.05 advantage) and this game is likely to be very close if turnovers are not the factor that they have been for these two teams. The math projects both teams at 5.3 yppl and gives Detroit a slight 18 yards edge in total yards because they tend to run more plays, and overall the math favors the Lions by ½ a point in this game.
Thanksgiving day favorites have been on a roll lately (17-2 ATS since 1988), but Detroit applies to a very good 81-26-4 ATS situation that is 4-2 ATS for dogs on turkey day and the Lions also apply to a 34-8-1 ATS home underdog bounce-back situation. Detroit outplayed Green Bay as a home dog last week but were -3 in turnovers (-2 in fumbles) and still would have covered the spread despite the turnovers if not for a last minute Packers’ field goal. If Detroit is negative -2 or more in turnovers again then they won’t win this game, but I’d expect the Lions to win if turnovers are even or in Detroit’s favor. I’ll consider Detroit a Strong Opinion in this game.
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