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Texas -7 I love Texas at home vs TCU. If David Ash plays like the quarterback he’s suppose to be Texas wins by 2 scores. Both teams are awful ATS, but the Horns have shown some light over the last two weeks. The longhorns are 4-0 when coming off a bye. Let’s hope that extra rest gives them the big W in Austin.
Redskins +3 Love when the Cowboys are favored at home. Fade. Fade. Fade.
Patriots -7 After last week’s blowout of the Colts, we expect more of the same against the Jets. I know they’re the home dogs but they seem to be exempt overall from that theory.
Scott Spreitzer | NFL Side Thu, 11/22/12 - 4:15 PM
Triple-dime bet 106 DAL 3.0 (-110)
I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday afternoon. The Cowboys are not over-valued in this one. There's a statement I have rarely made over the years. Instead, it's Washington who I believe is getting too much respect. The Redskins did look impressive last week, but that came at the expense of a Philadelphia team without their starting QB, who looked to have just "packed it in." Dallas has been taking care of the football with just one turnover in their last three games. Tony Romo led the team in a spirited second half effort, overcoming a 13-0 halftime deficit to beat Cleveland last time out. That fight and determination carries over in this one. And the Cowboy defense owns the pass rushers to make life tough on Robert Griffin-III. The Dallas defense ranks 7th in total defense and 6th against the pass. Meanwhile, the Cowboy offense will face a Washington defense that ranks 26th overall, including 29th against the pass, and they give up 25.4 ppg, which ranks 25th. Mike Shanahan teams have not fared well against efficient passing teams. In fact, his teams have covered just 5 of 23 against offenses that complete at least 64% of their passes. Romo is hitting 67.3% on the season. Meanwhile, after the first month of the season, road teams with a line in the +3/-3 range are 10-30 ATS after beating the spread by more than 21 points. And finally, the Cowboys are on a 6-1 SU run against the Skins, holding Washington to 14.1 ppg in those meetings. I like the fact that Dallas is not over-valued and I'm laying the points with Dallas on Thursday. Happy Thanksgiving and Best of Luck! - Scott Spreitzer.
JASON SHARPE
3 Unit Play Take #104 Detroit +3 over Houston (12:30pm est):
The only good thing to come out of that unforgettable loss last Sunday with the Detroit Lions is once again we get them here getting a field goal or more and against a team they clearly proved they can play with last weekend. The Lions did everything but cover in their last game against Green Bay as also a three point underdog in that one.
The Lions have dropped eight straight Thanksgiving games and there now seems to be an extra emphasis on ending that ugly streak here in this one. Detroit comes in off two straight point spread defeats and like we have stressed here many times before, NFL teams off back to back point spread failures are excellent home dog bets the following game. Also the Lions staff is feeling the heat from losing another game against a good opponent. Most feel it's time for Detroit to get a signature type win for the organization and this one here would be that.
Houston has had an excellent season so far this year but keep in mind they do play in probably the easiest division in the NFL this year. In fact the Texans schedule is littered with games against the Bills, Jets, Jags (2x) and Titans to name a few.
No doubt that Houston is a good team but going on the road as a non-conference favorite is always a tough spot for anyone to get up for and especially facing once again what is a desperate team with their slim playoff hopes still alive. Take Detroit and the points here.
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