11-25-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 22

100th Grey Cup: What bettors need to know

Calgary vs. Toronto (+1.5, 55.5)
Time: 6 p.m. ET, Rogers Centre, Toronto

THE LINE: Most shops opened Toronto at +1.5 or +2. Several books moved them to +2.5 at mid-week but bettors have moved the line back down to where it opened. The early money was on the over and that number moved up a point to 55.5 with some shops offering it at 56 as of Saturday.

KEY STAT: Toronto has won and covered the past five meetings with Calgary, including two this season. The Argos were underdogs all five times.

TORONTO: The Argos have won and covered their last four games. They have the most explosive player in the CFL this year, Chad Owens, who was the leading returner and receiver in the CFL this year. Owens is coming off a 207-yard receiving performance against Montreal. QB Ricky Ray is starting in his fourth Grey Cup and has been winning lately more with efficiency than flash. He had the highest completion percentage in the CFL this year and has only thrown two picks in his last seven games. Toronto is middle of the pack statistically on defense, but what they lack in numbers, they make up for in physicality. They now face the tough task of trying to slow CFL-leading rusher, Jon Cornish.

CALGARY: The Stampeders are the hottest team right now with six straight victories (4-1-1 ATS) and all six games played over the total. The Stamps scored at least 32 in each one despite starting two different guys at QB over the past few games. Kevin Glenn will start in his first Grey Cup after Drew Tate broke his forearm two games ago. Glenn will have the help of Cornish, who rushed for over 100 yards in each of Calgary’s first two playoff games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Toronto had slow starts in both of its postseason outings so far, falling to quick 7-0 deficits both times.

2. Turnovers will likely be huge between these two evenly matched teams. Toronto lost two fumbles last game and has three in the playoffs. Calgary has just one fumble through two playoff games.

3. Toronto was just 4-6 ATS at home this season. Calgary was 7-3 ATS on the road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Write-Up

Sunday, November 25

Hot Teams
-- Spurs won six of last eight games (5-2 as AF).
-- Detroit is 3-2 in last five games after an 0-8 start (4-4 as AU). Knicks won/covered all four home games (3-0 as HF).
-- Nets won six of last eight games (2-1-2 as HF). Portland won four of its last five games (2-3 as AU).
-- Orlando won four of six home games (1-2 as HU).
-- Denver won/covered last three games (3-1 as HF).

Cold Teams
-- Raptors lost eight of last ten games (0-2 as HU).
-- Suns lost four of five road games (0-4 as AU). 76ers are 3-4 in their last seven games (3-3 as HF, three straight covers as HF).
-- Celtics lost three of their last five games (1-2 as AF).
-- Hornets lost last six games, last two in OT (4-1 as road dog).

Totals
-- Four of last five San Antonio games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Detroit games stayed under total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Portland's away games.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Phoenix games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Orlando games. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Celtic games.
-- Six of last seven New Orleans games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Sunday, November 25

Trend Report

1:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. TORONTO
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
San Antonio is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW YORK
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New York
Detroit is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New York's last 19 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games

3:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. BROOKLYN
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
Brooklyn is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Brooklyn's last 16 games when playing at home against Portland

6:00 PM
PHOENIX vs. PHILADELPHIA
Phoenix is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home

6:00 PM
BOSTON vs. ORLANDO
Boston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Boston is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Orlando's last 17 games when playing at home against Boston
Orlando is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston

8:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. DENVER
New Orleans is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Write-Up

Sunday, November 25

-- Marist lost by 43 Thursday but stunned Vandy 50-33 next day; Red Foxes are 2-3, beating Columbia team that beat Villanova. MAAC road underdogs are 5-12, 3-3 if getting double digits. Clemson made 44% of 3's in 3-1 start, losing only to Gonzaga; Tigers have 11 frosh/sophs out of 13 kids, very young team.
-- UTEP lost its last three games, scoring 53.3 ppg; teams made 49.2% of 3's against Miners in 1-3 start. Vanderbilt scored 47.7 ppg in losing last three games, including 50-33 to Marist Friday; they're shooting 28% from arc, 64% from line and aren't getting to line nearly enough. C-USA road teams are 10-15 against the spread this season.
-- 3-1 Oklahoma held all its opponents to 61 or less points; Sooners are playing their bench 41% of time, searching for combos that work. West Virginia's inexperienced team is 1-2, losing to both teams in final of this event; WVU forces turnovers on 27% of possessions but in halfcourt they're useless, shooting 25% from arc, 62.5% from line.
-- Gonzaga is 5-0, with one win by less than 25 points; three of its five opponents are ranked #82 or better. Davidson was up at New Mexico by 16, lost that game, but beat Vandy/WV to get to final here. Wildcats are in top 25 in country in experience. SoCon road underdogs of 15 or less points are 4-8. WCC road favorites are 3-4.

-- Drexel is huge flop, picked to win CAA but off to 1-4 start, with only win by hoop over Penn; Dragons have two guys out hurt, so depth is an issue, as it is for transfer-laden Rice, which lost first two games here by 18-11 points. Owls lost to a D-2 team by 13, are 0-3 vs D-I teams, with losses by 14-18-11 points.
-- Xavier has five new starters, doesn't sub much; they're shooting 63% inside arc, #1 in country, beat Butler by 15, rexel by 4/ Drake split first four games, losing by 6 at Detroit, by 3 to Cal, two pretty good teams; Bulldogs start two juniors, three seniors, so they're experienced. MVC road underdogs are 10-5 vs spread. A-16 road favorites are 9-6.
-- Georgia Tech has young team that struggles to score, making 16.4% from arc in 3-1 start, but Tulane is best team they've beaten. Udofia is only senior in rotation; his 3-11 from arc leads team. St Mary's got beat by Pacific Friday, after allowing 62.7 ppg in first three D-I wins. ACC underdogs are 6-4 against the spread.
-- Pacific is 2-0 vs top 100 teams, 0-2 vs teams not in top 100, hard to figure; Tigers have all five starters back from LY, but they were 11-19- this is Thomason's last year as coach. Pacific played lot of conference tourneys on this floor, won their share. Cal has an NBA guard (Crabbe); only one of their five wins (5-0) was by less than 11 points.

-- Villanova beat LaSalle the last 10 years, but in OT LY, by 3 the year before; Wildcats beat Purdue in OT, getting gift flagrant foul call to help force OT, then lost next two games, including hideous loss to Columbia (75-57). Explorers followed up good win over Delaware with ugly loss to Central Connecticut. Big East underdogs are 6-7 vs spread.
-- Temple hasn't played in eight days, winning its first two games by 14 points each (Kent State/Rice); Owls beat Delaware 66-63 LY, so they'll take Blue Hens seriously. Delaware has played #10 schedule in country so far, losing two games in NYC by 3-26 to KState-Pitt, but they also have a win at Virginia. CAA road underdogs of 12 or less points: 10-8.
-- Long Beach State lost four starters from LY but overscheduled again; they're 0-3 vs D-I teams, losing by 18 at USC, then getting crushed by UNC/Arizona. 49ers are turning ball over 23% of time. Fresno State won last three games after losing by hoop at Texas, with 66-61 win against Pacific, which looks better now. Bulldogs made 40.3% of shots behind arc in their first four games.
-- USC lost two of three games in Maui, getting crushed by Illinois (was down 31 at half), then beat Texas in OT, lost to Marquette by 8; they're athletic but have 10 transfers, so takes time to develop chemistry. San Diego State won by 16 at Missouri State after losing to Syracuse in wind on battleship. Aztecs beat USC 56-54 last year.
-- St Peter's won at Rutgers/Cornell, then somehow lost at Binghamton, so not sure what to make of team that shoots 52% from foul line- they lost to Seton Hall last 10 years by 13-point average, but it was only nine points LY. Pirates are 4-1, losing to Washington in OT after being down 16 at half; none of teams they've beaten are ranked in top 240.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Write-Up

Week 12

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)—Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)—RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)—Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.

Raiders (4-6) @ Bengals (5-5)—Carson Palmer was going to retire rather than play for Bengals; they finally traded him to Oakland, where he’s thrown five pick-6’s in little over a year; Raiders hadn’t thrown any from 2006-10. Oakland defense has fallen apart, giving up 45 ppg in last three games (16 TDs on last 36 drives); they’ve turned ball over 7 times in those games (-6), leading to two opponent TDs and field position deficits of 12-8-10 yards. Raiders are 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 22-31-3-35 points, with only win at lowly Chiefs. In opponents’ last 10 red zone drives, they’ve allowed eight TDs and a FG. Resurgent Bengals allowed only one TD (23 drives) in winning last two games; they’re 2-3 at home, 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-18 points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9 vs spread, 3-5 at home; AFC West underdogs are 5-11, 3-7 at home. Last five Oakland games went over total; five of last seven Bengal games stayed under.

Steelers (6-4) @ Browns (2-8)—37-year old #3 QB Batch gets nod for Pitt here; they’re working out backups (former Patriot Hoyer/former Eagle Kafka) as I type this; Steelers have dominated series lately, but they’ve scored only two TDs on 24 drives in last two games, averaging 4.7/4.2 ypa. Last time Pitt had positive turnover ratio was Week 4, but they’re defending well, allowing 6 or less 2nd half points in each of last five games. Browns got hosed last week at Dallas, getting flagged 12 times for 129 yards, giving Pokes 10 first downs, just on penalties; key call on OT fumble also went Dallas’ way. Cleveland is 2-3 at home, 3-2 as home dogs; since ’07, they’re 14-13 as home dogs. Steelers are 2-3 on road, 1-2 as road favorites; since ’06, they’re 13-21 as road faves, 7-14 in division games. Home sides are 3-2 vs spread in AFC North games. Last five Pittsburgh games, last five Brown games stayed under total.

Bills (4-6) @ Colts (6-4)—Indy was snapped back to reality by 59-24 beating at Foxboro last week, when Patriots scored three TDs on defense/STs; loss snapped 4-game win streak that has Colts as playoff contender- they’re 4-1 at home, but wins are by 3-4-3-3 points, so they’re winning by fine margin (one win in regulation by more than 4 points). Buffalo had extra time to rest/prep after Thursday night win over Miami, just their second in last seven games; Bills are 2-3 as road underdogs this year (4-8-1 in last 13), losing away games this year by 20-42-12-6 points, with wins at Browns/Cardinals. Colts are letting Luck be more aggressive on first down; seven of their last nine plays that gained 20+ yards came on first down (20 of previous 40 had come on 1st down). AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 4-1 at home; AFC East underdogs are 7-5, 2-1 on road. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Indy games.

Broncos (7-3) @ Chiefs (1-9)—Bad teams have very little home field edge, especially late in season; lot of no-shows at their games. Hard to muster any enthusiasm at all for woeful KC, which benched QB Cassel for Notre Dame alum Quinn last week; Chiefs lost last seven games, with four of last five by 10+ points- they’re 0-5 at home this year, 1-3 as home underdogs (were 6-0 as home dogs in ’10-’11), losing by 16-17-3-10-22 points at Arrowhead. Denver won its last five games, scoring 30+ points in all five; they won last three road games by 11-8-22 points, but lost of RB McGahee (knee/leg) sets them back some. Chiefs have only 12 takeaways in 10 games, with -19 turnover ratio, as brooms ready to sweep front office, coaches out of power after season. Bronco defense is making Manning’s life easier; Broncos’ last six TDs were on drives of less than 60 yards. Five of last six Denver games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-13 vs spread, 1-7 in AFC games.

Titans (4-6) @ Jaguars (1-9)—Not often teams lose when they have +2 turnover ratio, but Jax has it done it twice this year, losing both times in OT, at Oakland/Houston. Jaguars are 5-0 vs spread on road, 0-5 at home, with all five home losses by 17+ points (average home score, 31-9); they’re better off right now with more veteran Henne at QB- he passed for 372 yards in last week’s OT loss in Houston, averaging 10.1 ypa. Tennessee’s 80+ year old owner Adams read team/coaches riot act after 51-20 home loss in Week 9; team responded with pre-bye 37-3 win at contending Miami; Titans won last two road games, scoring 35-37 points, after losing first three by average score of 35-10. Tennessee is 0-1 as favorite this year; since ’09, they’re 2-4 as road favorites. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South games; home underdogs are 0-2. Over is 5-3 in last eight Tennessee games, 4-2 in last six Jaguar games.

Vikings (6-4) @ Bears (7-3)—In six-game winning streak from Weeks 3-9, Chicago scored 8 TDs on defense/special teams, masking a struggling offense; now that Cutler is hurt, offense has been exposed, scoring one TD on 23 drives in losing last two games- backup QB Campbell was beaten like a piñata at Candlestick Monday, sacked six times. After being +16 in turnovers first half of season, they’ve been -2 in each of last two games- teams that are -2 or worse in turnovers are 11-60 SU this year. Vikings lost their last two post-bye games 29-10/45-7; they’re 1-3 on road this year, with only win 20-13 at Detroit, when they didn’t score offensive TD but had two on special teams. Short week for Bears, who haven’t been same team since bye week (4-1 vs spread before bye, 1-4 after). Home teams are 2-4 vs spread in NFC North games this season. Four of last five Viking games, four of last six Chicago games went over the total.

Falcons (9-1) @ Buccaneers (6-4)—Red-hot Tampa Bay (won/covered last four games) finding ways to win; they were down 10 with 5:00 left at Charlotte last week, won in OT- they had TDs on defense/special teams week before vs Chargers. Bucs make opponent earn their points; 14 of last 16 TDs they allowed were on drives of 72+ yards, and other two were 64-65 yards- they haven’t beaten themselves, which is what Falcon s tried to do last week, turning ball over six times but somehow surviving at home vs Arizona. Falcons have run ball only 42 times for 104 yards in last two games, after averaging 98.5 yards on ground in first eight games. Six of last seven Tampa Bay games went over the total. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Last week, Ryan was first NFL QB since 1967 to throw five INTs, no TDs in a win; good news is that Bart Starr was that QB, and Packers won SB that year. Good news for Atlanta; they’re 4-0 outdoors, with average score, 30-15.

Seahawks (6-4) @ Dolphins (4-6)—Couple of rookie QBs figure to combine for low scoring game, right? In Miami’s last two games, they have zero plays of 20+ yards, after having 32 in first eight games; league-wide, teams average 4+ explosive plays/game. Dolphins had three extra days to prep after tough loss at Miami (didn’t allow offensive TD); they’re 2-2 at home, scoring 17-3 points in last two home tilts. Long road trip for Seattle; they’re 1-4 on road (0-2 as favorite), with only win 16-12 at Carolina- last time they covered as road favorite was 2008 at St Louis. Over last 21 years, Seattle is 5-17 vs spread (4-5 as favorite) in its post-bye games, though they covered last two (lost 6-3, +3.5 LY). Since ’07, Miami is 7-13 as home underdog, 1-1 this year. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 1-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 7-6, 2-1 at home. Under is 4-1 in Seattle’s road games, 5-0-1 last six Dolphin games.


Ravens (8-2) @ Chargers (4-6)—Sandwich game for Baltimore, which barely escaped Pittsburgh with 13-10 win Sunday night even though Leftwich played end of game with broken ribs; they play Steelers at home next week. Ravens won last three games but covered only twice in last eight; they’re 3-2 at home, 1-2 as road favorites- they’re 4-6 vs spread in last 10 games as road favorite, and scored 13 or less points in three of last four away games. Norv Turner regime is on life support after last week’s loss at Denver, though string of winnable games in December keeps Wild Card in sight; Chargers lost five of last six games- they’re 2-2 at home, beating Titans/Chiefs. Bolts are 4-6 despite being favored in 7 of 10 games; since 2004, they’re 5-2 as home underdogs. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-11 vs spread, 2-4 at home; AFC North favorites are 4-9, 1-4 on road. Six of last seven San Diego games went over total.

49ers (7-2-1) @ Saints (5-5)—Short week plus travel for SF, but Niners pummeled Chicago Monday night, holding Bears to 143 yards after Rams put 458 up on them week before; 49ers are 3-1 on road, winning by 8-34-21 points, with only loss in Minnesota’s dome (1-4 vs spread in last five dome games). SF is 2-1 as road favorite this year. Brees has Saints on 5-1 roll after 0-4 start; now they get chance to avenge loss to 49ers in LY’s playoffs, with Kaepernick making first NFL road start. Saints won three in row, five of last six games; they’ve covered seven of last eight, winning last three home games while scoring 31-28-31 points. 49ers don’t beat themselves; they haven’t turned ball over in last three games, but defense isn’t forcing turnovers like they did LY (+28 LY, +4 this year). NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-5 as favorites, 5-4 on road. NFC South underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 0-2 at home. Six of last nine 49er games stayed under total; seven of ten Saint games went over.

Rams (3-6-1) @ Cardinals (4-6)—Only games Rams won came vs two rookie QB’s (Seattle/Washington) and a lame QB (Arizona); they sacked Kolb nine times in 17-3 (+2) win back in Week 5, but they haven’t won (0-4-1) since, in large part because they haven’t forced one single turnover in last five games (-8) after forcing nine (+2) in first five games. Teams with inferior talent cannot win with negative turnover ratios. Cardinals lost last six games after 4-0 start; they somehow lost in Atlanta last week despite a +5 turnover ratio- they picked Ryan off five times, started five of 15 drives in Falcon territory and still scored only 19 points. Rams are one of two NFL teams (Browns) without road win; they’re 3-2 as road underdogs. Arizona is 3-2 at home, scoring 16-3 points in losing last two (one TD on last 23 home drives). Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four St Louis games went over; five of last six Cardinal games stayed under.

Packers (7-3) @ Giants (6-4)— Giants are 4-0 when game goes over total, 2-4 when it stays under. Last two Super Bowl winners meet; odd thing, they were both #6 seed in NFC when they became champs. Green Bay won last five games this year, forcing 14 turnovers (+8) after being -1 (5 turnovers) in first five games; Pack has chance to avenge home playoff loss to Big Blue LY- they’re 3-2 on road, but all three wins came in domes- they lost their only outdoor road game, 14-12 at Seattle on a Monday night with bogus last play with replacement refs. Giants scored 34.8 ppg in winning last four post-bye games; they’re 3-1 at home, 1-3 as home favorites, with wins by 7-14-4 points and loss to Steelers. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-4 vs spread, 1-4 on road; NFC East favorites are 3-13 vs spread, 2-8 at home. Five of last seven Green Bay games, three of four Giant home games went over total.

Panthers (2-8) @ Eagles (3-7)—Not much to choose from here, with both head coaches possible lame ducks, but you have underdog with big edge under center (Newton over Foles). Carolina lost seven of last eight games, blowing 10-point lead with 5:00 left at home last week; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 6-1-2 points, with only win in last road game, 21-13 at Washington. Visitor covered Carolina’s last eight games. Eagles lost last six games, giving up 31.8 ppg in losing all four games since bye, when they fired their DC. Shanahan had been 3-21-1 as home favorite before his Skins walloped Philly 31-6 last week, that’s how far Eagles have fallen, in what are obviously Reid’s last weeks running club. NFC South underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 9-1 on road; NFC East favorites are 3-13 vs spread, 2-8 at home. Four of five Eagle home games went over the total. National TV audience should extract better effort than these teams have been producing lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday, November 25

Falcons at Bucs: What bettors need to know

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 50.5)

If the conference-leading Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their winning ways, they'll have to derail one of the hottest teams in the league when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a matchup of the top two clubs in the NFC South on Sunday. After winning its first eight games of the campaign, Atlanta dropped a four-point decision at New Orleans on Nov. 11, ending its hopes of an undefeated season. The Falcons avoided a second straight loss last Sunday as they overcame an early 13-0 deficit and five interceptions by Matt Ryan to record a 23-19 triumph over Arizona.

Tampa Bay also made a comeback last weekend, rallying from a 21-10 deficit with 11 points in the final 4:03 of the fourth quarter and a touchdown pass from Josh Freeman to Dallas Clark just 4:20 into overtime for a 27-21 road victory over Carolina. It was the fourth consecutive win for the Buccaneers, who had lost four of their previous five contests. The triumph kept Tampa Bay three games behind Atlanta in the division and in the thick of things in the NFC wild-card picture.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Falcons -1, O/U: 50.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-1): Atlanta became the first team to win when its quarterback throws five interceptions and no touchdowns since Green Bay accomplished the feat in 1967 with Bart Starr under center. Ryan has been superb over his last seven road games as he has thrown 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. The Falcons have struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league with an average of 5.0 yards allowed per carry. Tony Gonzalez needs 12 receiving yards to become the eighth player - and first tight end - in NFL history to reach the 14,000-yard plateau.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-4): Tampa Bay has scored a league-high 205 points over its last six games. Freeman has lost four of his last five games against Atlanta, throwing 10 interceptions and only six touchdown passes. In his last six overall contests, he is 5-1 with 16 TDs and only three picks. The Buccaneers own the league's best run defense with an average of 81.8 yards allowed. However, the team has surrendered an NFL-worst 312.6 passing yards.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Falcons’ last five vs. NFC South.
* Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers’ last seven games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Falcons have won six of the last seven meetings between the division rivals.

2. Tampa Bay has not won five straight games since 2002.

3. Six of Atlanta's last seven games have been decided by no more than a touchdown.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday, November 25

49ers at Saints: What bettors need to know

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (1, 49)

A one-week injury may have been all it took for Alex Smith to lose his job as the starting quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers. Colin Kaepernick is expected to be under center Sunday when the 49ers look to extend their winning streak to five games against the visiting New Orleans Saints. Smith has been demoted to second-team reps in practice by head coach Jim Harbaugh, who was left impressed by Kaepernick's performance in Monday's 32-7 drubbing of the Chicago Bears.

Kaepernick's second NFL start will pit him against one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. Drew Brees leads a Saints team that has reeled off three straight victories and is 5-1 since opening the year with four straight losses. As expected, Brees has been the catalyst - he torched the Oakland Raiders for three scores in a Week 11 victory and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season. He'll be in tough against a San Francisco defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards in the league.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: 49ers -1, O/U: 49.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-2-1): As Smith sat recovering from a concussion, Kaepernick staked his claim to the starting role with 243 passing yards and two touchdowns against Chicago's vaunted defense. Kaepernick was given a ringing post-game endorsement by tight end Vernon Davis, who finished with six catches for 83 yards and a score. "I felt like somebody took the handcuffs off me," said Davis, who had amassed just nine catches for 101 yards in his previous four contests - all with Smith at the helm.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-5): While New Orleans' offense continues to roll over the opposition, the defense has made quiet strides during the team's current winning streak. The Saints kept Oakland at bay in a 38-17 victory on Sunday and has surrendered an average of 19 points over its last three games. Running back Darren Sproles has been participating in practice and is expected to return after missing the last three weeks with a broken hand. Sproles will be a popular option for Brees in what becomes a muddled backfield.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven November games.
* Over is 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 vs. NFC opponents.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees is 5-0 lifetime in the regular season against the 49ers, with 12 touchdowns, two interceptions and a quarterback rating of 107.2.

2. San Francisco linebacker Aldon Smith's 5 1/2 sacks against Chicago give him 29 in his first 26 NFL games, the most by any player over that time frame.

3. The 49ers lead the all-time series 45-24-2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday, November 25

Sunday Night Football: Packers at Giants

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-3, 50.5)

The past two Super Bowl champions will square off when the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers try to protect their division title hopes Sunday night at MetLife Stadium. The Giants are coming off a bye week and have lost two straight, but they're still lead the mediocre NFC East. Green Bay might have relinquished its spot atop the NFC Central - depending on Chicago's outcome against Minnesota on Sunday afternoon - by the time the prime-time showdown arrives, but the Packers will be in good shape in the wild card race, regardless.

The Packers have won six of the past seven regular-season meetings, including a 38-35 road win last December. But the Giants spoiled Green Bay's bid for a second consecutive Super Bowl title last January, winning 37-20 in Green Bay en route to winning the title itself.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: New York -3. O/U: 50.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-3): After a bit of a slow start, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has heated up as the Packers have won five straight and six of seven. He leads the NFL with a 107.3 rating and has 27 touchdown passes against six interceptions. The Packers haven't been able to mount much of a run game, but they're more likely to attack the Giants through the air, as New York ranks 25th against the pass and surrendered 415 passing yards against Dallas in Week 8. Green Bay's defense will be shorthanded with cornerback Charles Woodson out with a broken collarbone and linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) listed as questionable.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-4): New York looked like a real threat to defend its title as recently as three weeks ago, but the flaws have been exposed in consecutive losses. The offense stalled in a 24-20 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 9, and four turnovers were their undoing in a 31-13 loss at Cincinnati in Week 10. Eli Manning has gone three games without a touchdown pass, but he has a strong record against the Packers. He has passed for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in the past two meetings with Green Bay, including last year's playoff win.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning needs two touchdowns passes to tie Phil Simms (199) for the most in franchise history.

2. The Packers are 25-0 when Rodgers starts and has a rating of 115 or higher. He has a 121.2 rating in two regular-season starts against the Giants.

3. The Giants are 10-0 when RB Ahmad Bradshaw has at least 100 rushing yards. Bradshaw (foot) is listed as questionable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL weather watch: Chance of snow in Cleveland

Minnesota at Chicago (-6.5, 38.5)

Site: Soldier Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 10 mph.

Oakland at Cincinnati (-9.5, 50.5)

Site: Paul Brown Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 13 mph.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1, 34.5)

Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with a 20 percent chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 17 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

San Francisco at New Orleans

The Saints look to build on their 15-3 ATS record in their last 18 home games. New Orleans is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1) Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25 Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (11/21)

Game 221-222: Oakland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.244; Cincinnati 137.024 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16; 45 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 8; 49 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-8); Under

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.379; Cleveland 130.374 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 43 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 34 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+1 1/2); Over

Game 225-226: Buffalo at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.083; Indianapolis 1329.558 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 51 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Under

Game 227-228: Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 135.980; Kansas City 126.942 Dunkel Line: Denver by 9; 48 Vegas Line: Denver by 11; 44 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+11); Over

Game 229-230: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.170 Jacksonville 122.308 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 41 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-2 1/2); Under

Game 231-232: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.718; Chicago 131.656 Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3; 46 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 233-234: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.998; Tampa Bay 138.760 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 43 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 49 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1);

Game 235-236: Seattle at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.112; Miami 129.501 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 40 Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 37 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over

Game 237-238: Baltimore at San Diego (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.595; San Diego 133.439 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 44 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1; 47 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+1); Under

Game 239-240: San Francisco at New Orleans (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.167; New Orleans 139.257 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 47 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 1; 49 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1); Under

Game 241-242: St. Louis at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 129.779; Arizona 127.752 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 42 Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 37 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+2 1/2); Over

Game 243-244: Green Bay at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.596; NY Giants 143.582 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7; 45 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

New Orleans at Denver

The Hornets are coming off a 111-108 loss to Phoenix and look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+10). Here are all of today's picks

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: San Antonio at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.901; Toronto 117.153 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 202 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 196 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Over

Game 503-504: Detroit at New York (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 114.139; New York 129.905 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 16; 188 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 11 1/2; 191 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (-11 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Portland at Brooklyn (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 114.855; Brooklyn 120.539 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 199 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6 1/2; 194 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Phoenix at Philadelphia (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 113.943; Philadelphia 119.846 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6; 192 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 194 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-4); Under

Game 509-510: Boston at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.896; Orlando 118.004 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 195 Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 192 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+5 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: New Orleans at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.055; Denver 120.039 Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7; 192 Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 196 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+10); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Cal Poly at UCLA

The Bruins look to take advantage of a Cal Poly team that is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 road games. UCLA is the pick (-20) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 23 1/2. Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-20). Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 513-514: UL-Lafayette at Michigan State (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 48.026; Michigan State 70.730 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 22 1/2 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 23 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+23 1/2)

Game 515-516: Villanova at LaSalle (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 55.792; LaSalle 61.732 Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 6; 137 Vegas Line: LaSalle by 3 1/2; 142 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-3 1/2); Under

Game 517-518: Delaware at Temple (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 56.876; Temple 69.276 Dunkel Line: Temple by 12 1/2 Vegas Line: Temple by 11 Dunkel Pick: Temple (-11)

Game 519-520: Long Beach State at Fresno State (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 54.968; Fresno State 63.272 Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Fresno State by 7 Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-7)

Game 521-522: Rhode Island at Auburn (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 53.773; Auburn 59.365 Dunkel Line: Auburn by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Auburn by 8 Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+8)

Game 523-524: Portland at New Mexico (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 48.917; New Mexico 66.559 Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 17 1/2 Vegas Line: New Mexico by 19 Dunkel Pick: Portland (+19)

Game 525-526: Air Force at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 57.684; Colorado 66.188 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Colorado by 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+11 1/2)

Game 527-528: Ball State at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 48.745; Indiana 80.001 Dunkel Line: Indiana by 31 1/2; 135 Vegas Line: Indiana by 30 137 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-30); Under

Game 529-530: San Diego State at USC (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 65.435; USC 58.924 Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 6 1/2; 117 Vegas Line: San Diego State by 1 1/2; 120 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-1 1/2); Under

Game 531-532: Cal Poly at UCLA (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 50.112; UCLA 73.804 Dunkel Line: UCLA by 23 1/2 Vegas Line: UCLA by 20 Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-20)

Game 533-534: Marist vs. Clemson (11:30 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marist 49.878; Clemson 65.170 Dunkel Line: Clemson by 15 1/2; 122 Vegas Line: Clemson by 10 1/2; 124 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-10 1/2); Under

Game 535-536: Vanderbilt vs. UTEP (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 52.049; UTEP 59.197 Dunkel Line: UTEP by 7 Vegas Line: UTEP by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-4 1/2)

Game 537-538: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 61.596; Oklahoma 62.403 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 1; 139 Vegas Line: West Virginia by 1; 134 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+1); Over

Game 539-540: Davidson vs. Gonzaga (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 63.520; Gonzaga 75.505 Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 12; 137 Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 7 1/2; 142 Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-7 1/2); Under

Game 541-542: Xavier vs. Drake (1:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 62.717; Drake 57.871 Dunkel Line: Xavier by 5; 130 Vegas Line: Xavier by 3; 134 Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-3); Under

Game 543-544: Drexel vs. Rice (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 63.415; Rice 48.902 Dunkel Line: Drexel by 14 1/2 Vegas Line: Drexel by 13 Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-13)

Game 545-546: St. Mary's (CA) vs. Georgia Tech (6:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 63.491; Georgia Tech 56.430 Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 7; 128 Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 5; 124 Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-5); Over

Game 547-548: Pacific vs. California (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 52.839; California 63.490 Dunkel Line: California by 10 1/2; 124 Vegas Line: California by 6 1/2; 130 Dunkel Pick: California (-6 1/2); Under

Game 549-550: Rider vs. WI-Milwaukee (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 551-552: Missouri State vs. SMU (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 553-554: South Carolina vs. AR-Little Rock (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dunkel Line: Vegas Line: Dunkel Pick:

Game 555-556: St. Peter's at Seton Hall (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 49.694; Seton Hall 62.394 Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 12 1/2 Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 15 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (+15 1/2)

Game 557-558: Portland State at Oklahoma State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 47.146; Oklahoma State 67.394 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 20 1/2 Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 21 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+21 1/2)

Game 559-560: Rutgers at NC-Greensboro (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 52.978; NC-Greensboro 48.197 Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 5 Vegas Line: Rutgers by 6 Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+6)

Game 561-562: Montana State at Oregon State (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 46.132; Oregon State 68.349 Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 22; Vegas Line: Oregon State by 20 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-20 1/2)

Game 571-572: Gardner-Webb at Illinois (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Gardner-Webb 52.370; Illinois 66.212 Dunkel Line: Illinois by 14; 135 Vegas Line: Illinois by 18; 131 Dunkel Pick: Gardner-Webb (+18); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Browns +2
Dolphins +3
Packers +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Accuscore

Written by Colin Kennedy

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

At the midpoint of the NFL season, two of the biggest surprises have been two NFC South teams: the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Though the Falcons have made the playoffs three out of the previous four seasons, no one expected them to have the league’s best record. Likewise, many analysts and experts expected the upstart Bucs to be a several seasons away from playoff contention due to their youth, inexperience and lack of depth along with a rookie head coach in Greg Schiano. However, after just ten games, the Falcons look locked into the NFC’s top seed while Tampa Bay attempts to win a Wild Card spot. On Sunday afternoon, the two will meet for the first time this season in what is expected to be a close game.

The Falcons are favored by a point, and cover 51.7 percent of the time in simulations. The total is set at 50.5 points with the two teams combining to go over 52.5 percent of the time. In simulations where the Falcons committed fewer turnovers (31 percent) they went on to win 80 percent of the time. The Bucs won 59 percent of simulations when they committed fewer turnovers.

In years past, the Falcons featured a balanced offensive attack between quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner. While Turner used to be the key that ignited this Falcon offense, Ryan has emerged as not only the team leader but deservingly among the league’s elite at his position. In simulations he averages 313 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, but against this porous Buccaneer defense I wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers are significantly higher.

Tampa Bay allows an average of 313 yards passing per game, the most in the NFL. They’ve done it while playing some poor passing offenses including Carolina (twice), Kansas City, and Minnesota. With starting cornerback Eric Wright out for Sunday’s contest, both Atlanta receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones figure to be able to pad their stats. Simulations showed White having an outstanding day with 90 yards receiving and half a touchdown while Jones added almost 80 yards himself and a 60 percent chance of a score. Jones is listed as questionable with an ankle injury although he did practice on Friday. If Jones misses this contest, expect more targets for tight end Tony Gonzalez, who would look to improve upon his projected 67.5 yards and 0.6 TD.

In years past, the Falcons were among the league’s top rushing teams, but Turner has significantly fallen off this season. Turner seems to have lost the power in his legs, and it shows with a paltry 3.7 yards per rush average on 155 carries. Fantasy dynasty league owners should expect and anticipate Turner’s release this upcoming offseason. Turner is projected to have less than 50 yards rushing and 0.4 TDs.

Unfortunately for Turner, the Bucs lead the league in run defense, although that figure is offset by having the league’s worst pass defense. While the Bucs rank last in the league against the pass, they have room for improvement and have impressively won their last four games to get into the playoff picture. The Bucs are now without their Week 1 starters (the injured Wright and recently traded CB Aqib Talib) at cornerback but hopefully over these next few weeks their youthful corners will develop into solid starters with decent futures.

Rookie running back Doug Martin, a late 1st round pick from Boise State, has quickly become a football sensation since his breakthrough performance against Oakland where he gained 251 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 25 carries. Martin how has over 1,300 total yards on the season, and if it weren’t for the stellar play of rookie QBs Robert Griffith III and Andrew Luck, would be in talks for Rookie of the Year honors. Martin projects to rush for 85 yards and score once. If the game remains close, he’ll be the Bucs best option to move the chains, so his numbers could reach into the triple digits for rushing yards.

The signing of receiver Vincent Jackson has really benefited Mike Williams, who slipped in his sophomore season. While Jackson leads the team with over 860 receiving yards, Williams is on pace to surpass 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Despite the Falcons having a deep and experienced secondary, I expect both Buccaneer receivers to surpass their projections. I think Jackson will be closer to 100 yards than his projected 78 yards and 0.7 TDs, while Williams’ projection of 53 yards seems low.

Freeman has beautifully rebounded from his disappointing 2011 season when his numbers dipped to a below average 74.6 passing rating, and a horrendous 16-22 TD to INT ratio. The combination of more talent to throw to and a more balanced offensive attack has allowed Freeman to take fewer chances, and it shows in his 21-7 TD-to-INT ratio. Freeman projects to pass for almost 260 yards and 2 TDs to just 1 interception.

The Atlanta defense mirrors their offense: strong passing units (4th offensively, 7th defensively) but weak rushing (28th offensively and 26th defensively). The defense has maintained a bend but don’t break mentality. While the defense has forced 19 total turnovers, few Falcon defenders have been able to consistently get after opposing quarterbacks. After John Abraham’s 9 sacks, Jonathan Babineaux is a distant second with just 3.5 sacks. These figures aren’t likely to change much after this weekend either.

Although the Falcons are in first place in the NFC, this game is more important to the Bucs as their second half schedule is among the toughest in the league. Over the next few weeks Tampa will play Denver, New Orleans and the Falcons again. While this Falcon team has been fortunate to win several close games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tampa take this important game. If Atlanta is able to get Turner going early, they should be able to lock up this game and potentially their division early. However, if the Bucs’ secondary is able to contain Ryan, expect this one to be a nail biter. I’m taking the upset here and taking the Bucs 31 Falcons 27.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Free NFL Football Pick

Sunday November 25th 2012

Atlanta -1.5 over Tampa
The Falcons have the leagues best record yet nobody is giving them respect because of the fashion they have been winning in. That is fine today because all we are doing is picking the winner in this one. Tampa has been impressive, but they are not on the Falcons level. Tampa’s Secondary is a complete mess and there is no way they are going to be able to cover these superstars on the Falcons Offense. I really do not see Matt Ryan being stopped at all in this game. This should be a high scoring entertaining game. Take Atlanta.