11-29-12

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CHRIS JORDAN 600*

Ark St -5

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Betting Line Moves NCAAB 11/29

also:
518 UL monroe +11 1 /2
524 oregon - 16 1/2

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sportsbookbreakers

4-STAR Miami and San Antonio Over - Miami has been employing quite a simple strategy to stop teams recently - just outscore them. It's worked quite successfully the past two games and with a huge rest advantage we see that as a strategy which makes sense again here.
It is a bit of an unusual rest advantage as they haven't played sense Saturday night while San Antonio played last night in Orlando. In this situation the rested team has pushed the tempo with success.0 Teams with 4-8 days rest facing an unrested team are 107-74-6 OU.

It's not just that Orlando played last night but also that this is their fourth game in the past five nights. The Spurs are 6-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since March 27, 2008 when playing their fourth game in five nights.

Both of these are obviously elite teams. It's particularly the case for Miami at 11-2 overall. When San Antonio plays teams playing at this level they try to score with them. The Spurs are 6-0 OU (9.5 ppg) since November 2010 when playing a team which has won at least 78% of their games on the season. When extending back to November 2007, they are 16-3 OU in this situation.

Miami has won four straight games including wins over Milwaukee and Cleveland in their past two. That is despite allowing 106 and 108 points in those two games. The Heat are 13-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since February 2009 at home if not a dog of more than a point when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games.

In the win over Cleveland Saturday it was Lebron who picked them up against his old team with a game-high 30 points. The Heat are 6-0 OU (18.5 ppg) since May 24, 2012 after a win at home in which Lebron James scored at least 27 points.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 111, San Antonio 107

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Trace Adams


1500♦
Thursday Lead Pipe Lock
Winner #46 of 71


Rutgers Scarlet Knights -3




* Adams instructs his clients... The Knights are -3 point favorites. If your price is -3 or even -3 1/2 points, I want you to buy the half point down on Rutgers.

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Thursday, November 29th - Free Member Play

TOP (3 UNITS)
RUTGERS -3 vs louisville (4:30pm)

*Lines at LV Hilton 11-29-12, 1:45am
**All times Pacific

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Northcoast

Thursday Marquee
Atlanta minus 3.5

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. Over 135 in Marquette @ Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

3-Unit Play. Arkansas State (-6.5)

3-Unit Play. UT-Martin (+24.5)

2-Unit Play. South Alabama (-4)

2-Unit Play. Take #527 Manhattan (-7) over Fordham

2-Unit Play. Take #515 Middle Tennessee State (-7.5) over Lafayette

2-Unit Play. Take #541 Pepperdine (Pk) over Montana State

1-Unit Play. Take #522 LSU (-4.5) over Seton Hall

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4-Unit Play. #525. Take Long Beach State +2 over Loyola Marymount (Thursday @ 10pm est).

Long Beach State is a top 110 team in my book despite being 2-3 to start the year. Dan Monson's team won 25 games last year and they bring back solid talent this year as well. They have played some difficult competition to start the year including USC, North Carolina and Arizona all of which are top 100 teams. The only team they faced in the 100-200 range was Fresno State on the road in a game they ended up winning by 8 points on the road. And, Fresno State is a top 140 team. So, they beat a top 140 team on the road by 8 points. Now, they face a top 200 team in Loyola Marymount catching 2 points. I actually have Long Beach State winning this contest by 5 points Outright. That's a 9 point shift. And, Loyola Marymount has beat two two teams outside the top 300. They have yet to beat a team in the top 200 nevertheless a team in the top 125 such as Long Beach State. They lost to Oral Roberts on neutral footing by 9 points who is a top 150 team. At home they would probably lose to that team by 2-3 points and now they face a slightly better team here in Long Beach State by 5 points. The 49ers are 9-2 ATS when facing a team with a home losing record.

Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball

4-Unit Play. #504. Take Under 200 Denver vs. Golden State Warriors (Thursday @ 8:05pm est).

A recurring trend is that when Denver is a favorite on the road and when Denver comes off a loss they typically play the Under. Denver is the 11th best team in the power rankings and on the road facing the 9th best in Golden State. Golden State has a lot of revenge coming into this game having lost in double-overtime to Denver earlier this year and most recently by 11 on the road at Denver. That game in double-overtime was in Golden State. And, the game went Over - but if you take out the double-overtime scoring, the game would have went well Under at less than 180 points. With Denver coming off a loss at Utah where they gave up 105 points and with Golden State having revenge and playing a quality team at home, it makes for a decent under. Plus, nearly 75% of the public is on the Over which makes for a decent public fade on what is just two games that are nationally televised here and the public will obviously hover on the Over. The Under is 4-1 for Golden State when they face a team with a straight up winning record and the Under is 16-6-1 for the Warriors coming off an ATS win as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

NBA

San Antonio vs. Miami - November 29, 2012 - 8:00 PM

Pick: Your pick will be graded at Pinnacle @ -5.5 -111 Miami
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: November 29, 2012 - 8:00 PM
Reason For Pick:
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Spurs have been on a great run. However, they're stepping up in class to take on the champs tonight and they're in an extremely difficult scheduling spot.

The Spurs check in off a game at Orlando last night. They normally fare pretty well when playing the second of back to back games though and Orlando and Miami aren't too far apart. So, that's not the issue. Its worse than that though. Not only will the Spurs be playing the second of back to back games, they'll also be playing their fourth game in the past five days.

Making matters even worse, the first leg of that "4 games in 5 days" stretch was a double-OT game up in Canada, a game where three starters played well over 40 minutes. Throw in the fact that this is the final game of a 6-game road trip and the Spurs really may finally start to suffer from a bit of fatigue.

On the other hand, the Heat come in very well-rested. They last played back on 11/24. Note that they're 10-6 ATS (12-4 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when playing with three day's rest. They've won four straight overall, three of them by seven or more points.

Laying a touchdown, the Heat hammered the Spurs 120-98 here last season. The 2011 game here was even more lopsided, a 110-80 beatdown in favor of Miami. Playing in front of the national audience (those who aren't watching football) I believe the Heat will be motivated to bring the mighty Spurs back down to earth and that the schedule calls for another blowout. *10 Personal Favorite

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS LOCK
3 Rutgers
Hoop
4 M T ST
3 South Carolina

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Hoopsgooroo 11/29

301 Saints +3 @ 8:25p

303 Louisville +3 @ 7:30p

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Teddy Covers

(CBB) 10* Manhattan

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Al DeMarco - 30 Dime Rutgers

[DaKid]

marco double dime tv gow--falcons