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Nuggets vs. Warriors
Play: Over
A pair of uptempo teams as Denver plays at Golden State. Denver is running and gunning again, 10th in the NBA in point scored. But this defense is not always stellar, as in the last game giving up 105 points in a loss at Utah. The over is 5-1 in the Nuggets last 6 road
games. Golden state is 18th in the NBA in points scored, another young team that likes to run. The over is 7-3 in the Warriors last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. And when these teams meet the over is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings in Golden State. Play the Nuggets/Warriors over the total.
Rutgers (-3) over Louisville
7:30 PM -- High Point Solutions Stadium
RUTGERS (9-2) -3 over Louisville (9-2)
Prediction: Rutgers by 9-10
Played in Piscataway, New Jersey
Played at High Point Solutions Stadium (52,454) Artificial Turf
Weather: Clear and cold with game-time temperatures in high 20s, relative humidity of 58% and no appreciable wind.
Starting Time: 7:35
TV: ESPN
Comments: It is all on the line in this one—the Big East Conference championship and a coveted BCS bowl bid, in this case to the Orange Bowl, for the winner. It is unfortunate that Louisville has in its last two games—both losses—suffered major injuries to its two best skill players and thus is not the same team that opened the season 9-0. The Cardinals lost leading rusher Senorise Perry to a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the Syracuse game and then last week, against Connecticut, superstar quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, broke his left wrist. He continued to play after that and will play tonight but will be severely handicapped in taking any snaps under center while being a bit better in the shotgun. This creates a major problem for Louisville’s offense because the situation is going to make it much easier for the Rutgers defense—one of the best in college football—to figure out what is about to happen. For the record Rutgers has given up but 71 points in conference play this season and has the country’s 14th ranked defensive team and one that is ranked fourth against the score.
Clear. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 35.
25 Units
Saints (+3½) over Falcons
8:20 PM -- Georgia Dome
New Orleans Saints (5-6) +3 ½ over ATLANTA FALCONS (9-1)
Prediction: New Orleans by 6-7
Starting Time: 8:25
TV: NFL Network
Comments: If one team in the NFL has made life miserable for the Atlanta Falcons it has been the New Orleans Saints who handed them their only loss this season three weeks ago, 31-27—their fourth straight win over the Falcons and their 11th in the past 13 meetings. It also is of note the Saints have won the last three games played in Atlanta, all by 3 points. Winning tonight is far more important for New Orleans than for Atlanta. While the Falcons, who have the best record in the NFL, can punch an early ticket to the playoffs with a victory, the Saints absolutely need to win to keep their hopes alive for a trip to the post season. For them, there is no margin for error and that should be a big motivating factor tonight. One must respect Atlanta’s success this season while noting the Falcons have been taken right to the money in almost every game. For instance, they have won the last two—a 23-19 home win over Arizona and a 24-23 victory at Tampa Bay—by a total of four points, leaving their average margin of victory this season a mere 7.1 points per game and this makes the +3 ½ even a bigger handicapping factor. I do look for New Orleans to continue its dominance in this series and get its 5th straight win against the Falcons.
Game is being played inside a dome.
50 Units
TCU (-10) over Southern Utah
8:00 PM -- Daniel-Meyer Coliseum
TCU (5-2) -10 over Southern Utah (1-4)
Prediction: TCU by 19-20
Starting Time: 8:05
TV: Fox Sports Southwest
Comments: No one is ready to declare TCU a world-beater but the Horned Frogs are off to an excellent start and are so much more talented than is Southern Utah they should win this game with ease and in blowout fashion. TCU’s strength this season has been its defense, which gives up just 52.7 points per game—19th best of more than 320 NCAA teams—and that alone should give Southern Utah fits. If the Horned Frogs have had a weakness this season, it has been there offense but the door to get past that one appears to be open tonight, since the visiting Thunderbirds have been torched by both 103 points by Gonzaga and 112 by Cal State-Fullerton. Southern Utah’s only win this season has come at the expense of Carroll College of Montana. TCU simply has what it takes to get it done in blowout fashion tonight.
25 Units
Middle Tennessee (-7½) over ULLafayette
8:00 PM -- Cajun Dome
Middle Tennessee State (4-1) -7 ½ over LA-Lafayette (2-4)
Prediction: Middle Tennessee by 13-14
Starting Time: 8:05
No TV
Comments: Middle Tennessee State is one of those so-called mid-majors you never hear much about which is unfortunate since this team is loaded with talent. The Blue Raiders return four starters and 10 of its top 12 scorers from last year’s 27-7 team, including two all-conference players. This is a team that has the ability to go deeply into the NCAA Tournament and certainly has all the edges in this one, except the home court. As an interesting point of comparison, these teams have played one common opponent this season—Texas Southern. LA-Lafayette lost at Texas Southern, 74-71, in overtime while Middle Tennessee crushed that same team at home, 79-52.
10 Units
Notre Dame (-1½) over Kentucky
7:00 PM -- Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center
NOTRE DAME (6-1) -1.5 over Kentucky (4-1)
Prediction: Notre Dame by 8-9
Starting Time: 7:05
TV: ESPN
Comments: There are few tougher places for a visiting team to play than at Purcell Pavilion, where Notre Dame stands 45-2 straight up in its last 47 games there. The electric atmosphere and never-ending crowd noise is extremely intimidating, especially for a young team which Kentucky is, starting three freshmen, a sophomore and a senior. Notre Dame returns all five starters from last year’s 22-12 NCAA team and they play hard at both ends of the court. It is notable that in their last four games, all wins, they have held the opposition to just 58.3 points per game. As talented as Kentucky is, or is supposed to be, they come into this game of wins over Long Island University-Brooklyn, Morehead State and LA-Lafayette, hardly a killer’s row. In the two games they have played this season against legitimate teams, both on the same neutral floor, they have been quite unimpressive, being life-and-death to beat Maryland 72-69 and losing to Duke, 75-68. Notre Dame has all the edges in this one and should get it done.
5 Units
South Carolina (+7½) over St Johns
7:30 PM -- Carnesecca Arena
South Carolina (5-1) +7 ½ over ST. JOHN’S (4-2)
Prediction: St. John’s by 1-2
Starting Time: 7:35
TV: ESPNU
Comments: I do not know what to make of this St. John’s team, primarily because I think Red Storm Coach Steve Lavin is the most over-rated head coach in college basketball and gets out-thought and out-foxed by any decent team with a coach who does know what he is doing. South Carolina certainly has that in Frank Martin who put Kansas State’s basketball team back on the map before leaving to take over in Columbia. He certainly is off to an excellent start at 5-1 if one realizes last year’s edition of the Gamecocks went 10-21. St. John’s has played two decent well-coached teams this season, losing to both on a neutral floor to Murray State, 72-67, and to Baylor, 97-78. St. John’s may have enough overall talent while playing a rare game on campus at 5,602-seat Carnesecca Arena. (most of its games are at Madison Square Garden) to get the win but this should go right to the money.
Comment