11-30-12

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Points
Preferred
#306 Kent St.

Sports Reporter
Recommended
#306 Kent St.

Green Sheet
RATING 3 #307 UCLA (+10)

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UCLA Bruins vs. Stanford Cardinal
Point Spread & Pick

No. 17 UCLA Bruins (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. No. 8 Stanford Cardinal (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS)
College Football Week 14
Date/Time: Friday November 30th, 2012. 8:00PM Eastern
Where: Stanford Stadium Palo Alto, C.A.
TV: FOX
by Jay, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: UCLA +10/Stanford -10
Over/Under Total: 52

It is very rare that two teams play back to back in college football. In fact, it typically never happens. However, that exact scenario will play out this week when the no. 17 UCLA Bruins visit the no. 8 Stanford Cardinal for the Pac-12 Championship. Stanford took down UCLA 35-17 last week in Pasadena but the Cardinal needs another win over the Bruins to capture their first Pac-12 crown since 1999 during the Tyrone Willingham era.

The Cardinal offense showed off their physical toughness last week by controlling the trenches in the win over UCLA. Stanford's offense amassed 221 yards on the ground and senior running back Stepfan Taylor posted a 142 yard performance with two touchdowns. Stanford's running game helped control the tempo of that game and gave the Cardinal a big advantage in the time of possession battle which will be key again this week.

Statistically, Stanford does not have a great offense averaging just 381 total yards (83rd in FBS) and 207 yards passing (90th in FBS). Freshman QB Kevin Hogan has done a much better job in recent weeks than his predecessor Josh Nunes. Hogan has not posted any huge performances but he has been extremely accurate hitting 73% passing over the last 4 games with 8 touchdowns and just 3 picks. Hogan has not hurt the offense by making mistakes, like Nunes previously, and that has made a big difference in the 2nd half of the season. Stanford has not only won 6 straight games but they have covered the spread in 5 of those 6 games.

This week the Cardinal enters as a 10 point favorite in the title game. Early betting action has been heavily favored on the Cardinal and I would not be surprised if this line moves in Stanford's direction throughout the week. However that is not to say that UCLA cannot contend in this ballgame. The Bruins have played some pretty strong football during the latter part of the year. In fact, UCLA had a 5 game winning streak before last week's loss to Stanford. More importantly UCLA moved the football fairly well against Stanford's stout defense.

Freshman QB Brett Hundley completed 20 of 38 passing for 261 yards for 1 touchdown and 1 interception last week. Hundley has been solid this year hitting 67% passing with 26 touchdowns and 10 picks which has been able to keep the passing game effective. Still, the Bruins true weapon comes on the ground with running back Johnathan Franklin. Franklin has racked up 1,506 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year. Franklin has been solid averaging 6 yards per carry but was held to just half that average against Stanford with just 3.1 yards per touch last week. Franklin was held to 65 yards on 21 carries in what turned out to be one of his lowest outings of the season. This week UCLA has to find ways to get their star running back some running room to help flip the field.

UCLA was able to move the football decently last week despite a couple of turnovers that let the game slip away. Stanford does not have an offense that will blow teams off the field. Therefore if the Bruins can avoid those turnovers and play better on defense against the run, they should be able to compete in this game. By compete I mean compete for the win not just cover the 10 point spread.

Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I really believe UCLA is the play here. I know the Bruins will have to play better this week but remember the Bruins bid to the Pac-12 Championship was already sealed with their 38-28 victory over USC. Therefore, last week's walk through did not carry any major significance for the now 9-3 SU Bruins. All the trends may point towards the Cardinal but I believe UCLA will have an "all-in" type effort and keep this game rather close. Take UCLA +10.

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Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
Point Spread & Pick

No. 19 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) vs. No. 18 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS)
College Football Week 14 – Championship Week
Mid-American Conference (MAC) Championship
Date/Time: Friday, November 30th, 2012, 7:00 p.m.
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Mich.
TV: ESPN2
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: NIU -5/KSU +5
Over/Under Total: OFF

There will be no controversies on Friday night when the two best teams in the Mid-American Conference square off for a shot at the MAC Championship, when the 19th-ranked Northern Illinois Huskies meet the 18th-ranked Kent State Golden Flashes at Ford Field in Detroit on ESPN2.

Unlike the BCS or some of the other big conferences around the country, there will be no doubt who will reign in the MAC since the Huskies and Flashes were hands down clearly the two best teams in the MAC this season.

Northern Illinois ran the table in route to winning the MAC West, cruising through their conference portion of the schedule with ease including their tune-up game in their regular season finale at Eastern Michigan last Friday, 49-7. The Huskies only loss of the season came in the form of an, 18-17, loss at the hands of the Iowa Hawkeyes in the season opener, giving the Huskies a 10-game win streak and some huge momentum coming into the title game at Ford Field on Friday.

Northern Illinois not only will be trying to repeat as MAC Champions after winning last year’s game over Ohio (23-20), but they will be making their third straight trip to Detroit for the MAC title game after losing to Miami (OH) in 2010.

If it’s possible for the 18th-ranked team in the country to still be considered a Cinderella story, the Golden Flashes are it. Not only has Kent State come from the pack to run the table in the MAC East to qualify for a trip to Detroit, but they aced the final two tests in the division in back-to-back weeks to close out the season with victories over Bowling Green (31-24) and last Friday in the finale over Ohio (28-6).

This will be the Flashes first trip to a MAC Championship game since the conference expanded and added a title game, and their first chance at a MAC title since the 1972 season when they finished 4-1 and won the regular season title without a “championship game.”

Even though the point spread and total are still off the board at a majority of the offshore sportsbooks and all of the properties out in Las Vegas, the few that are listing a number for this game are showing Northern Illinois as5-point favorites in the neutral site game.

As of press time the total is still off the board.

The MAC title game will feature two of the countries most dangerous offenses led by the top two candidates for MAC player of the year, Northern Illinois QB Jordan Lynch and Kent State multipurpose back Dri Archer.

Lynch is the Huskies offense, period. The junior from Mt. Carmel, Ill., runs the Huskies read-option attack with deadly precision that has them among the top teams in FBS with over 483 yards a game (16th), 245 yards rushing a game (9th) and 40.5 points per game (12th). Lynch has hit 64 percent of his passes for 2,750 yards and a 23-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio, but when he keeps the ball he’s at his most dangerous since he’s run for over 1,611 yards and 16 TDs on the ground too.

Archer is barely 175-pounds dripping wet, but the senior has an extra gear that makes him the fastest player on the field anytime he steps between the lines. For the season Archer has 1,337 yards (9.7 ypc) and 14 touchdowns running the ball, but he’s almost more dangerous in the passing game where he’s accumulated 458 yards (15.3 ypc) and 4 touchdowns through the air.

Archer is not alone in the Golden Flashes backfield though, as fellow running back Trayion Durham is also a 1,000-yard rusher (1,176) and also has 14 scores on his resume.

If the old adage that defense wins championships holds true in this game, then the edge has to go to the Huskies. For the year Northern Illinois has put together a solid season (using MAC standards, of course) in allowing just 365 yards a game, but they do get stiff in the red zone since they have only allowed 17.5 points a game which is the 15th-best mark in FBS this season.

Kent State has had issues stopping the pass all season (282 ypg – 116th), so don’t be surprised if Lynch tries to take advantage of that weakness by pulling the ball back out and taking a few shots to Martel Moore over the top throughout the game.

Historically, Northern Illinois has had a big upper hand in their matchup versus the Flashes, winning six of the last seven head-to-head meetings against them including the last one last season, 40-10. In last year’s game Kent State was held to just one yard rushing and they went 1-for-15 on third down, but Archer didn’t play at all in the game so it’s a safe bet that it won’t be that easy for the Huskies in the title game.

Not only have the Huskies owned the series on the field, they’ve also cashed betting tickets in five straight (5-0 ATS) and are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games in the MAC. However, the Huskies do tend to struggle away from DeKalb, going just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games (although it’s usually against bigger teams from bigger conferences).

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I don’t expect Kent State to be able to stop Lynch and the Huskies offense, nobody in the MAC has yet this season and it’s not like the Flashes have a top-notch defense. But the same could be said for Archer, Durham and the Flashes, as this will be the fastest offensive attack the Huskies have faced all season. Once a total is released I may have to take a serious look at the over (if it’s under 65), but I don’t think this game will be a blow out.
I’m taking Kent State plus the points here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CKO
11 NORTHERN ILLINOIS over Kent State
Late Score Forecast:
Northern Illinois 42 - Kent State 26
(MAC Championship)
(Friday, November 30)
(Ford Field)
(Detroit, Michigan)

10 UCLA over *Stanford
Late score forecast:
UCLA 28 - *Stanford 24
(Pac-12 Championship)
(Friday, November 30)

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THE GOLDSHEET

★ ★ ★ ★KEY RELEASES ★ ★ ★ ★
NCAAB-Louisiana Tech (+2) by 9 over Georgia State
NBA- Denver (+5) by 10 over LA Lakers

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Where the Action is: NCAAF Mid-Week Line Moves

There may only be a handful of games on the college football slate but with conference championships highlighting the schedule, Week 14 is one of the most heavily-bet boards of the season.

We talk to Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments to the Week 14 odds and where those lines will end up come kickoff.

UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal – Open: -10.5, Move: -8

It’s Round 2 between UCLA and Stanford after the two Pac-12 programs met last week. This time, however, the conference championship and a spot in the Rose Bowl are on the line.

The Cardinal crushed the Bruins 35-17 as 2.5-point road favorites last week, but many believe UCLA was holding back, knowing it would face Stanford the following week. Those believers are the ones moving this line, expecting a more spirited effort from the Bruins Friday night.

“There are some people who thought UCLA looked a little vanilla last week,” Rood says. “They got to pick their poison – Oregon or Stanford – and maybe they were holding back. It seems like a lot of points to give a team that’s having a pretty good season.”

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Northern Illinois vs. Kent State: What Bettors Need to Know

Northern Illinois at Kent State (6.5, 67.5)

For the first time since 2003, two ranked teams will meet in the Mid-American Conference championship game when No. 17 Kent State and No. 21 Northern Illinois meet Friday at Ford Field in Detroit. Recording-breaking seasons have both teams on the brink of program history and the stakes couldn’t be much higher for either team as a possible automatic bid to a BCS game awaits the winner. Although the MAC is not an automatic-bid BCS conference, league champions from mid-major conferences can receive one if they finish the season ranked in the top 16 and above a champion from an automatic-qualifying conference in the final BCS standings. The Golden Flashes enter the game on a school-record 10-game winning streak and have defeated 12 straight conference foes overall. The Huskies, winners of 11 straight, are riding a 16-game conference winning streak – a run that began with a 40-10 victory over Kent State last season.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

LINE: Northern Illinois -6.5, O/U 67.5.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (11-1, 8-0 MAC): The Huskies will be seeking their second straight MAC title behind coach Dave Doeren and have already set a school record for victories. The offense is in the capable hands of darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate Jordan Lynch, who extended his own FBS record of consecutive 100-yard rushing performances by a quarterback to 10 in the Northern Illinois’ 49-7 victory over Eastern Michigan on Saturday. In the same game, sophomore Tommylee Lewis became the first player in school history to score three kickoff return touchdowns in his career.

ABOUT KENT STATE (11-1, 8-0): The Golden Flashes, who have already locked up their first postseason game since the 1972 Tangerine Bowl, possess two 1,000-yard rushers in Dri Archer (1,373) and Trayion Durham (1,199), and as a result, rank 11th in the FBS in rushing offense. Archer – the school’s single season record-holder in touchdowns with 21 – leads the nation in kick return average, is fifth in all-purpose yards and tied for ninth in scoring. Kent State also ranks second in the FBS with a plus-20 turnover margin and 35 forced turnovers.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Golden Flashes are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.
* Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Northern Illinois has won five straight games in this series.

2. Only Ohio State and Middle Tennessee have matched Kent State’s six-win increase from last season.

3. The Huskies and Golden Flashes are among five FBS teams to have won 15 of their last 17 games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won five of last seven games, last two by total of five points.
-- Nets won nine of last 11 games, covered last four (2-2 as AU).
-- Knicks are off to 10-4 start (4-0 as HF).
-- Hawks won last six games but are 0-5 vs spread as a HF.
-- Memphis won 11 of last 12 games (5-2 as HF). Pistons won three of last four games (5-4 as AU).
-- Oklahoma City won 11 of last 13 games (6-4 as HF). Jazz won five of last six games (0-4-1 as AU).
-- Pacers won three of last four games (2-1 as AF).

Cold Teams
-- Toronto lost its last five games (1-2 as HU). Suns lost six of eight road games (2-0 as AU; favorites covered seven of their eight road games).
-- Charlotte lost three of last four games (3-3 as HU).
-- Magic lost nine of last 12 games (2-1 as F).
-- Boston lost four of last seven games (1-5-1 as HF). Trailblazers lost last three games, by 13-7-2 points.
-- Wizards are off to 1-12 start, but covered four of last five as road dog.
-- Cavaliers lost 10 of last 11 games, but covered four of last five.
-- Bucks lost four of last five games (4-0 as AU). Minnesota lost five of last six games (3-1 as HF).
-- Sacramento lost seven of its last nine games (2-4 as HU).
-- Nuggets lost last two games by a total of three points, covered four of five as a road underdog. Lakers lost three of last four games (5-3 as HF).

Totals
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Toronto games.
-- Four of last five Philly games went over the total.
-- Last seven Brooklyn games stayed under the total. Orlando's last three games went over.
-- Five of last seven Boston games went over the total. Under is 5-2-1 in Portland's away games.
-- Four of last five Washington games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total. Three of last four Hawk games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Thunder games went over the total.
-- Last three Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last 12 Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Denver road games went over total.

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CBB

-- Home side won all four SEC-Big East games last night, covering three. Georgetown, Tennessee are both off to 4-1 starts; Hoyas lost to #1 Indiana by 10, beat UCLA by 8 on neutral floor. Vols lost to Oklahoma State by 17; its best win was by 14 over UMass- both games were on nentral court. Vols have 80% of scoring back from LY's 19-15 team.
-- Louisiana Tech won last six games since losing opener at Texas A&M by 12, but none of teams they beat are ranked in top 200; Tech has three starters back from LY's 18-16 team. #173 Georgia State is 303, with all three losses to teams in top 120. CAA teams are 2-7 vs spread in games with spread of less than 5 points. WAC teams are 10-10.
-- South Florida won four of last five games since losing opener to UCF, only team to score more than 63 points vs USF. Georgia lost four of last five games, scoring 60 or less points in all five games; they're turning ball over 23.8% of time. Big East single digit favorites are 17-8 vs spread, 8-2 at home. SEC single digit underdogs are 6-9 against the spread.

-- Utah is 3-2 vs D-I teams, playing #338 schedule, losing by 7 at SMU Wednesday in first road game of year; Utes allowed 54 or less point in three wins, 74-62 in their losses. Texas State is 2-3 vs D-I teams- they're playing #3 pace in country, and are 0-3 scoring less than 80 points. Pac-12 teams are 8-6 if spread is less than 5. WAC teams are 10-10.
-- Kansas is off to 5-1 start, holding teams to 34.5% inside arc; Withey has been blocking lot of shots. All five Jayhawk wins are by 14+, with a 78-41 win over Pac-12's Washington State. Oregon State allowed 62.5 ppg in last four games; they're 4-1 so far, with loss to Alabama by 3 on a neutral court. Pac-12 road underdogs are 8-7 against the spread.
-- Syracuse doesn't usually venture out of central NY before Christmas, so this is unusual; Orangemen are 4-0 with all four wins by 13+: they've won on battleship near San Diego, so this isn't first road trip, but its the first true away game. Arkansas got sweptin Vegas last weekend, losing to Arizona State by 15, Wisconsin by 7, after being up 11 at half.
-- Auburn lost last three games, is 2-4, with last two losses by point at BC, in double OT to URI; Tigers are turning ball over 22% of time and making just 43% inside arc. First true road game for 3-3 DePaul team that lot twice on neutral court in Cancun. Blue Demons are playing fast, the #6 pace in country. Auburn is 0-3 allowing more than 51 points.

-- Fullerton scored 91.5 ppg in splitting first four games vs D-I teams, losing true road games at Stanford (81-68), Nevada (80-77); Titans have made half their 3-pointers so far, lead country in eFG% (62%). Titans beat Eastern Washington 91-76 LY at home. Eagles are 1-5 vs D-I teams, but this their home opener. Big West teams are 9-6 if spread is 5 or less.
-- Montana is struggling without injured star (foot) Cherry, splitting its first four games vs D-I teams, losing two of three on road- they lost by 25 at BYU Wednesday. San Francisco beat Griz last two years by 2-3 points; Dons are 2-1 vs D-I teams, losing by 12 at Stanford, winning by 20 over Columbia team that beat Villanova by 18. Big Sky teams are 2-6 if spread is 5 or less.
-- Nevada won four of last five games, sneaking past #279 Cal-Davis by a point Wednesday; Wolf Pack plays bench a lot, important since Reno is high altitude. Drake is 1-3 vs D-I teams, losing two of three last week in Anaheim. Nevada has three starters back from LY's 28-7 team, one of whom is star guard Burton, who is a future NBA player.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

11/30/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 716-231 (.756)
ATS: 277-304 (.477)
ATS Vary Units: 1118-1300 (.462)
Over/Under: 89-73 (.549)
Over/Under Vary Units: 130-116 (.528)

Non-Conference
AUBURN 70, DePaul 68
Cal State Fullerton 88, EASTERN WASHINGTON 81
GEORGETOWN 67, Tennessee 60
Kansas 78, Oregon State 65
Louisiana Tech 64, GEORGIA STATE 63
OKLAHOMA 80, Northwestern State 65
SAN FRANCISCO 75, Montana 68
SOUTH FLORIDA 57, Georgia 48
Syracuse 79, ARKANSAS 62
Tennessee Tech vs. LIPSCOMB: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
TEXAS STATE 69, Utah 68

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DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 14 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 0-1 (.000)
ATS: 0-1 (.000)
ATS Vary Units: 0-7 (.000)
Over/Under: 1-0 (1.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 2-0 (1.000)

Season
Straight Up: 1013-337 (.750)
ATS: 402-374 (.518)
ATS Vary Units: 2377-2205 (.519)
Over/Under: 357-342 (.511)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1175-805 (.593)

Friday, November 30, 2012
Mid-American Conference Championship
at Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Kent State 31, Northern Illinois 30

Pacific-12 Conference Championship
at Palo Alto, CA
STANFORD 36, Ucla 18

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

11/30/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 143-71 (.668)
ATS: 97-119 (.449)
ATS Vary Units: 350-371 (.485)
Over/Under: 115-103 (.528)
Over/Under Vary Units: 233-189 (.552)

Phoenix vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Philadelphia 94, CHARLOTTE 86
ORLANDO 94, Brooklyn 91
BOSTON 100, Portland 89
NEW YORK 105, Washington 89
ATLANTA 102, Cleveland 87
MEMPHIS 100, Detroit 86
OKLAHOMA CITY 108, Utah 98
Milwaukee vs. MINNESOTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Indiana 101, SACRAMENTO 98
Denver vs. L.A. LAKERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 945-699 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free play FRI: Over the total 205 Lakers/Denver

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

Cal St Fullerton -4