11-30-12

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with St. John’s (-8) Thursday.

Friday it’s Kent State. The deficit is 1388 sirignanos.

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Tennessee at Georgetown

The Hoyas look to take advantage of a Tennessee team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Friday games. Georgetown is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoyas favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 723-724: Tennessee at Georgetown (6:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 59.445; Georgetown 70.972 Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 11 1/2; 120 Vegas Line: Georgetown by 5 1/2; 124 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-5 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Louisiana Tech at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 57.545; Georgia State 61.591 Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 4 Vegas Line: Georgia State by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-1 1/2)

Game 727-728: Georgia at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 59.332; South Florida 59.939 Dunkel Line: South Florida by 1; 117 Vegas Line: South Florida by 4; 112 Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+4); Over

Game 729-730: Utah at Texas State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah 51.484; Texas State 52.715 Dunkel Line: Texas State by 1 Vegas Line: Texas State by 3 Dunkel Pick: Utah (+3)

Game 731-732: Oregon State vs. Kansas (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 62.804; Kansas 74.950 Dunkel Line: Kansas by 12 Vegas Line: Kansas by 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-11 1/2)

Game 733-734: Syracuse at Arkansas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 74.483; Arkansas 59.229 Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 15 1/2; 144 Vegas Line: Syracuse by 7 1/2; 149 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-7 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: DePaul at Auburn (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 56.843; Auburn 53.847 Dunkel Line: DePaul by 3; 135 Vegas Line: DePaul by 1; 140 1/2 Dunkel Pick: DePaul (-1); Under

Game 737-738: CS-Fullerton at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 58.563; Eastern Washington 50.598 Dunkel Line: CS-Fullerton by 8 Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 4 Dunkel Pick: Cs-Fullerton (-4)

Game 739-740: Montana at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montana 56.435; San Francisco 59.990 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5 Dunkel Pick: Montana (+5)

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Today's NBA Picks

Washington at New York

The Wizards look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Washington is the pick (+13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Knicks favored by only 11. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+13 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 30 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Phoenix at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.112; Toronto 115.766 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 194 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 703-704: Philadelphia at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.355; Charlotte 111.330 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 194 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 189 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over

Game 705-706: Brooklyn at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 121.251; Orlando 112.811 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 8 1/2; 197 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 707-708: Portland at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland 114.855; Boston 117.723 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3; 187 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 709-710: Washington at New York (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.973; New York 121.795 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11; 187 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 13 1/2; 191 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+13 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 112.217; Atlanta 124.585 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 12 1/2; 194 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 187 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9); Over

Game 713-714: Detroit at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.315; Memphis 124.621 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7 1/2; 185 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 11 1/2; 191 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+11 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: Utah at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah 117.840; Oklahoma City 130.997 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 13; 212 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 204 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9); Over

Game 717-718: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.080; Minnesota 113.651 Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 190 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 195 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+2 1/2); Under

Game 719-720: Indiana at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 118.035; Sacramento 113.315 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 193 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 188 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-1); Over

Game 721-722: Denver at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.544; LA Lakers 122.301 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 200 Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 204 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (+5 1/2); Under

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CBB SYRACUSE at ARKANSAS

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points after 4 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights.
67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
0-3 this year. ( 0.0% -3.3 units )

CBB UTAH at TEXAS ST.

Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UTAH) after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less, with just two starters returning from last season.
95-52 since 1997. ( 64.6% 36.8 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )

CBB GEORGIA at S FLORIDA

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 55.5 or less after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less.
99-52 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.6% 41.8 units )

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NBA DENVER at LA LAKERS

Play Under - Any team after allowing 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
112-60 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.1% 46.0 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% -0.3 units )

NBA INDIANA at SACRAMENTO

Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (SACRAMENTO) after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
216-139 since 1997. ( 60.8% 73.2 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 1.2 units )

NBA MILWAUKEE at MINNESOTA

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after having lost 3 of their last 4 games against opponent after having lost 4 of their last 5 games.
42-16 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.4% 24.4 units )

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CAPPERS ACCESS
Stanford CFB
Kansas
Arkansas

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NBA

Friday, November 30

The best basketball stats for NBA betting

The endless stream of sports statistics can make even the most analytical handicapper’s head spin to the point of nausea.

And, truth be told, many NBA sharps don’t give the numbers a second glance, basing most of their plays on situational and matchup circumstances.

There are a few stats basketball bettors should lean on when breaking down a game, but these aren’t your general figures, found on the back of basketball cards (do they still have those?). We asked some the Covers Experts, some of the sharpest capping minds in the biz, which stats they consider the most valuable to NBA bettors.

Turnover percentage/Assist-to-turnover ratio

Turnovers can kill a team – and a bet. Careless play can quickly turn the momentum of a game, taking what should be points for your side and swinging them against your wager. Basketball bettors should keep a close eye on stats like turnover percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio.

If you look at the current NBA figures, heading into Thursday, the Los Angeles Lakers are the worst team in terms of turnover percentage – which should come as no surprise to anyone who has bet on L.A. this season. The Lakers, who are a dismal 6-9 ATS, are coughing up the ball on nearly 18 percent of their possessions.

On the other end of the scale, the New York Knicks have been able to take care of the basketball, posting a league-low 12.4 turnover percentage and also top the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.699). The Knicks happen to be one of the best bets at 10-4 SU and ATS to start the year.

“Assist-to-turnover ratio is a stat that I won't make a bet without checking,” says Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

Effective field goal percentage

This offensive stat is a clear way to factor 3-point shooting into a team or players’ field goal percentage, using the formula: Field goals + (0.5 x 3-pointers) / field goal attempts. A team could have a high field goal percentage but may not shoot a lot of 3-pointers, while a team with great range may suffer a bit for those low-percentage shots.

It’s not a shocker to see most of the NBA’s elite clubs top this category, led by the Miami Heat at 55.2 percent heading into Thursday’s showdown with the Spurs, who are third in EFG% at 52.8 percent. The Oklahoma City Thunder are second at 53.5 percent.

In fact, the top five teams in EFG% (Miami, OKC, San Antonio, New York, L.A. Clippers) are a combined 44-28-2 ATS, with the Heat as the only sub-.500 ATS team at 6-7 ATS heading into Thursday.

Pace factor

This unique stat is the brain child of ESPN’s NBA mastermind John Hollinger and is a must-use for totals bettors looking for an edge when it comes to the over/under. Pace factor is simply the average number of possessions a team uses per game, giving you a clearer idea of what teams are running and gunning and which ones are sitting on the ball.

“Stats are key for totals,” says Teddy Covers. “John Hollinger's pace ratings at ESPN.com control the market.”

As of Thursday, the Houston Rockets, with new weapons Jeremy Lin and James Harden, top the league in pace with an average of 97.7 possessions per outing. Houston is fifth in scoring (102.1 ppg) and has topped the total in nine of its 15 games so far, including a 5-2 over/under record on the road.

At the low bottom of the totem pole are the Brooklyn Nets, who average just 90.6 possessions per game. The Nets’ controlled pace has led to 95.6 points a night (18th in the NBA) and limited opponents to only 90.7 points per game – lowest in the league. That strategy has not only helped under bettors cash nine times in Brooklyn’s first 14 games, but Nets backers are also enjoying a 9-3-2 ATS windfall.

Free throw rate

Fouls and their subsequent free throws are a big part of betting basketball. How many of us have been burned by a needless whistle or a missed foul shot in the final seconds?

Free throw rate (free throws attempted/field goals attempted) can be interpreted numerous ways when applied to NBA betting. The stat shows which teams are the best at drawing fouls but needs more of a breakdown when looking at certain teams.

The Lakers lead the league in free throw rate, posting a massive 40.1 FTR which is nearly 12 more than the league average of 28.2. With the best front court in basketball, L.A. is getting to the foul line almost 32 times a game but shooting 66.8 percent from the charity stripe (second worst in the league). In a way, defenses may be getting their money’s worth by hacking the Lakers and those missing points don’t help when L.A. is drawing a pile of points from books most nights.

The Thunder, on the other hand, are second in free throw rate (37.1) and get to the line 27.4 times per game (second in NBA). But, unlike Los Angeles, Oklahoma City makes teams pay for those whistles, hitting an NBA-best 84.5 percent from the stripe. The Thunder recently thumped the Charlotte Bobcats, who allow a 30.6 FTR, 114-69 as 11.5-point home favorites. They made 21 of 23 from the foul line which helped cover that pile of chalk.

The worst team in terms of free throw rate (giving fouls more than getting fouled) is the Sacramento Kings, who boast a -14.16 in terms of FTR difference. The Kings are 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS despite being sizable underdog most nights.

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Friday... In College Basketball take Eastern Washington +4 over CS Fullerton

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PAUL LEINER

100* No Illinois -7

100* Over 189.5 Hawks/Cavs

50* DePaul -1

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DAVID BANKS

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
It is not often that you put automatic BCS berth and MAC Championship Game in the same sentence, but that is what could be at stake Friday when the Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) take on the Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) at Ford Field in Detroit at 7:00 ET on ESPN2. You see, one of the BCS rules says that if a champion from a non-qualifying conference, in this case the MAC, finishes in the top 16 on the final BCS Standings and ahead of the champion from a qualifying conference, then the team from the non-qualifying conference gets an automatic BCS bowl bid. That is significant here with the Big East currently not having a team in the top 25.

Back to matters on the field, both of these teams went undefeated inside the MAC and both are on long winning streaks. Northern Illinois has won 11 straight games and is one point from being undefeated, losing only 18-17 vs. Iowa opening week. The Huskies have in fact won 16 straight games inside the MAC and are the defending conference champions, beating Ohio 23-20 after trailing 20-0 in this game last season. NIU ranks 16th in the country this year in total offense with 482.6 yards per game and the Huskies have good balance, ranking ninth in rushing with 245.0 yards per game while adding 237.6 passing yards. Besides that balance though, the ultimate deciding factor in this game could be the Huskies' defense. That unit ranks a commendable 37th nationally, and perhaps most importantly, is allowing only 3.4 yards per rushing attempt.

Kent comes in riding a 10-game winning streak, losing only in a blowout to Kentucky in a bit of a head scratcher 47-14 back in Week 2. The Golden Flashes are averaging 402.2 total yards per contest, but they are much more one-dimensional than the Huskies are. Kent is right behind NIU in rushing offense at in 11th with 241.5 yards per game, but the Flashes are only averaging 160.7 passing yards on an ordinary 6.7 yards per pass attempt, which is why the fine Northern Illinois rushing defense is so significant. If the Huskies win that scrimmage battle and force Kent to pass, the Golden Flashes probably will not come close to their 34.4-point scoring average. Also, Kent is much weaker in on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 409.9 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play overall, a full yard higher than Northern Illinois's defensive average of 4.5 yards per snap. To make matters more difficult, Kent must deal with one of the biggest dual threats in the country in Huskies' quarterback Jordan Lynch, who has 10 straight 100-yard rushing games, over 1600 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns to go along with 2750 passing yards and 23 touchdown passes against just four interceptions.

Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings, although the teams did not meet this year, allowing both to go undefeated in conference play. The Huskies are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 MAC games.

Pick: KENT ST GOLDEN FLASHES+7