12-2-12

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teddy covers

20* big ticket indy
10* carolina
10* seattle
10* cincy
10* green bay

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XpertPicks

• Play Seattle +3.5 over Chicago (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---30% OF YOUR BANKROLL
1:00 PM EST
Seattle has covered the spread in 14 of the last 19 games as an
underdog and they have also covered the spread in 10 of the last 11
games coming off an OVER the total. Seattle has covered the spread in
5 of the last 7 overall games and they are averaging over 26 points a
game on offense over the last three games.

• Play Arizona +4.5 over New York Jets (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---20% OF YOUR BANKROLL
1:00 PM EST
New York has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 17 of
the last 26 games against the spread coming off a loss by 21 points or
more in their last game. New York has lost 8 of the last 11
non-conference games against the spread and they are allowing an
average of 28 points a game on defense at home this season.

• Play Philadelphia +10 over Dallas (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---20% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:30 PM EST
Dallas has lost 20 of the last 26 games against the spread when
playing as a favorite and they have also lost 11 of the last 13 home
games against the spread. Dallas has lost 15 of the last 20 games
against the spread vs. NFC Conference Opponents and they are allowing
an average of 26 points a game on defense in home games this season.

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POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Wash (Monday)

3* Seattle, Houston, Detroit

2* NE, Jets, Pitt

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WUNDERDOG

NFL 50-40 Last 90 picks +$1050
Game: Minnesota at Green Bay (Sunday 12/02 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 46.5 -110

The Packers' offense was just about flawless last year, while the defense was about as bad as it gets. Having Aaron Rodgers at QB automatically makes the Packers an expected OVER team, but a lot has changed since last season. The Packers' offense has gone down 15 slots from one of the best in the league to No. 18 and in the bottom half this season. On the season, they are averaging 10 fewer points scored per game. The defense has gone from dead last up to No. 18. So the offense has slipped 15 spots and the defense has risen 14. This is clearly not the same team, and Rodgers is taking a beating, having been sacked 37 times already. The Packers OL is in real trouble and Jared Allen is certainly licking his chops for this one. Percy Harvin is a valuable player for the Minnesota offense on returns and lining up just about anywhere on offense, but he has missed the last two games, and will be hobbled or out for this one. This game sets up to be a lot more defensive than most expect, especially being an important game for both within the division. These teams are not constituted as they were offensively a year ago, and the Packers are going to get a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson. The Vikings will also put a lot of pressure on Rodgers which will limit the offense. Meanwhile, the Packers defense will be out to show they aren't as bad as they looked last week vs. the Giants. Play this one on the UNDER.

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Handicappster

Colts +5 (5 UNITS)

GB/Minn OVER 46.5 (3 UNITS)

Bucs +8 (4 UNITS)

Steelers +9.5 (5 UNITS)

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

12/2 4:25PM Cincinnati Bengals vs San Diego Chargers
[363](KINGS RANSOM- 2 UNIT PLAY) Cincinnati Bengals -1 -130

12/2 4:05PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos
[357] OVER 50.5 -118

12/2 1:00PM Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
[355] Houston Texans -6.5 +105

GOODFELLAS

12/2 1:00PM Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
[339](CIGAR GAME 2 UNIT PLAY)- Seattle Seahawks +3.5 -115

12/2 1:00PM Arizona Cardinals vs New York Jets
[346] New York Jets -4 -115

12/2 1:00PM San Francisco 49ers vs St. Louis Rams
[343] San Francisco 49ers -7 -105

MARC

12/2 1:00PM Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
[341](LIGHT'S OUT - 2 UNIT PLAY) OVER 46.5 -110

12/2 4:25PM Cincinnati Bengals vs San Diego Chargers
[363] OVER 46 -110

12/2 1:00PM Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions
[349] OVER 51 -110

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Jimmy Boyd
5* Carolina Panthers -3.....
5* Detroit Lions -4½.....
3* Denver Broncos -7...
3*San Diego Chargers +1½...
3* Philadelphia Eagles +10...
4* Washington Redskins +3

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Dr. Bob

Den-7 3 star. 2 stars above 7

Buffalo-7 2 star

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BEST Football - Sunday NFL Biggie - Dec. 2

10* #353 New England -9 over Miami 12:00 PM CT

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Accuscore
NFL Week 13 Picks
Analyst Jon Lee was 1-1 on his picks last weekend, but he’s 5-1 the last 3 weeks and 11-3-1 the last 6 weeks.

San Francisco 49ers -7 at St. Louis Rams

The last time these two teams played ended in a tie, which is probably the only thing holding this line at seven points. That was the game Alex Smith suffered a concussion leading to Colin Kaepernick now taking the quarterback job over full-time. Kaepernick now has had several weeks of practice and games to grow and improve. The previous match-up had the Niners going just 2-11 on third down, committing seven penalties, and David Akers missing a field goal inside of 40 yards. A lot of odd things had to happen for the Rams to even send that game into overtime. I expect the Niners to come out and prove how much better they are than St. Louis. The Rams were coming off a bye the last time they played San Francisco and won’t have that advantage this time around.

Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts OVER 51 Points

Simulations project these two teams to combine for 53 points on average. The Lions have gone over their posted point total in 7 of 11 games this year, and the computer has gone 7-2 picking totals in Colts game this season. Both teams are relatively healthy at this point in the season with the Lions coming off one of their better games of the year despite losing in overtime to Houston. The Colts still have two games against Houston remaining themselves, and will want to win this game to remain in good playoff position.

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NFLBetting Picks
Kevin

WEEK 13

2 UNIT 6-Point Teaser = CHARGERS +7.5 and REDSKINS +8.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2.00 units)
This teaser covers the basic teaser strategy of crossing over key numbers of 3 and 7, and in this teaser we have two home teams now getting over 7 points as they are both small underdogs. The Chargers play host to the Cincinnati Bengals who are 6-5 on the season and 3-2 on the road. San Diego is coming off a rough overtime loss to the Ravens and have dropped to 4-7 and 2-3 at home. They've lost 6 of their last 7 games, while the Bengals have won three straight. Although that doesn't look too good, you have to realize that 2 of the Bengals 3 wins have come against Oakland and Kansas City (two of the worst AFC teams) and that they had lost 4 straight games before that. Also note that the Bengals three road wins have come against KC, Jacksonville, and Washington (with losses to Cleveland and Baltimore). The Chargers have lost some close games to good teams, including losing to Baltimore by 3, @Denver by 7, @Tampa Bay by 10, and @New Orleans by 7. The Bengals have the edge on offense scoring just over 3 more ppg than the Chargers, while San Diego has a slight edge allowing 1 less papg. The Bengals are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs AFC opponents, while the Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents and 6-2 ATS following an ATS loss. If the Bengals can pull off a big road win I can't see it being by more than a touchdown, and I think Chargers +7.5 is a safe play for the first leg of the teaser. In the second leg of the teaser we back the Redskins who host the Giants in an NFC East battle. The Giants are 7-4 on the year after a big win vs the Packers last week, while the Redskins are 5-6 after a big win themselves on Thanksgiving Day vs the Cowboys. These two teams have already met this season in New York, with the Giants escaping with a 27-23 victory in a game that Washington could have won. Although Washington has 6 losses only one has been by more than 8 points. Rookie QB RG3 has turned this team's offense into one of the best in the league ranked 7th and averaging 26.8 ppg. Note that the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. The Redskins are also 4-0 ATS in these two teams last 4 meetings. With the Giants coming off a huge emotional victory at home I look for the Redskins to take advantage and possibly upset the Giants at home. I like Washington +8.5 on the second end to complete this teaser.

2 UNIT = Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears - OVER 37.5 (-101)
(Note: I'm risking 2.02 units to win 2.00 units)
We will see a good NFC game in Chicago this week as the 6-5 Seahawks head to take on the 8-3 Bears. Seattle is 6-5 overall but just 1-5 on the road, while the Bears are 5-1 at home. Rookie QB Russsell Wilson has shown improvements as the season has gone on, and the Seahawks have scored 21+ points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. The Bears offense has been held in check at times, but they've scored 21+ points 7 times this season, including 28 points at home last week vs the Vikings. The Seahawks defense was once ranked 1st in the league, but they've allowed 21+ points against in 4 of their last 6 games. Note that the Bears are averaging 25.2 points per game and the Seahawks are averaging 19.9 ppg. The OVER is 20-7 in the Seahawks last 27 v a team with a winning record, 15-6-1 in their last 22 games following a loss, and 39-19 in their last 58 games on grass. The OVER is 5-1 in the Bears last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and 9- 3 in their last 12 games following a victory. These two teams met last year with the Seahawks winning 38-14 in Chicago, easily going OVER the 34.5 total. They also met in the playoffs in the previous year with Chicago winning 35-24 also going way OVER the total. In fact you'd have to go back 8 games to 2003 to find the last "under" between these two teams, which was actually a 41 point game. The OVER is 7-0 in their last 7 meetings and 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Although we do have two good defenses in this game both teams have shown they can put up points and they play each other to the OVER.

2 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions - COLTS +4.5 (-104)
(Note: I'm risking 2.08 units to win 2.00 units)
The Colts enter this week's game vs the Lions with a solid 7-4 record, although they are just 2-3 on the road. Two of their three road losses have come against good teams in New England and Chicago, while the other was against the Jets (wins vs Jacksonville and Tennessee on the road). The Lions are just 4-7 entering Sunday's game after making the playoffs last year. They are just 2-3 at home with wins against St Louis and Seattle and losses vs Minnesota, Green Bay and Houston. Note both wins at home came down to the wire and they could easily be 1-4 or even 0-5 at home this year. The Lions road wins have come against Jacksonville and Philadelphia, which makes their resume even less impressive this year. With that said Detroit still has a solid offense ranking 2nd in the league in yards per game, and scoring 24.3 ppg. The Colts surprisingly aren't far behind ranked 6th in the league and scoring 20.9 ppg. Defensively these two teams match up closely with the Lions ranked hi gher overall, but the Colts allowing just under one point against less per game. With the Colts being led by Rookie QB Andrew Luck, who hasn't proved himself on the road I expected Detroit to be small favorites at home, but I think we have good value taking the Colts +4.5 on Sunday. Indianapolis is playing good football right now scoring 20+ points in 4 straight games, while giving up 13 points or less in 4 of their last 6. They've won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Detroit has put up good numbers on offense lately, but they've given up 24+ points in 4 of their last 5 games and have lost 3 straight and 4 of 6. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record. The Lions are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 30+ points in their previous game. Take Indy plus the points.

2 UNIT = Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans - TEXANS -6 (-104)< /strong>
(Note: I'm risking 2.08 units to win 2.00 units)
The Houston Texans enter this one 10-1 and leading the AFC. They are a perfect 5-0 on the road, and they've won 5 straight games. Their only loss of the season came at home vs Green Bay where they were beat 42-24, but other than that they've been great covering the spread in 7 of their 11 games this season. The Tennessee Titans are 4-7 on the year, and 2-3 at home. They've lost 3 of their last 4 games and most recently a 24-19 loss against the then one win Jaguars last weekend in Jacksonville. On paper this game is a huge mismatch with the Texans ranked 3rd in offense and scoring 29.7 ppg, while the Titnas are 24th ranked on offense and scoring 21.6 ppg. Defensively the Texans are ranked 6th and are allowing jsut 19.2 papg, while the Titans are ranked 29th and allowing 30.5 papg. These two teams met in Houston on September 30th, with the Texans winning 38-14 easily covering the 13 point spread. So why are the Texans favored by less than a touchdown? Some may consider this a let down spot for Houston who had a big win vs Detroit last week on Thanksgiving Day and are approaching a Monday Night match up with the Patriots. I don't think the Texans are over looking this one, as last season they lost three straight to finish the regular season and found themselves in an AFC Wildcard game. They know the importance of each game, and would love to head to New England next week 11-1. Note that the Texans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 vs divisional opponents, and 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games overall. The Titans are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record, and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Houston is 3-1-1 ATS in these two teams last 5 meetings. I can't see the Texans playing soft this week, and if they should get by the Titans by at least a touchdown. Take Houston -6.

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Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play. #346. Take New York Jets -4.5 over Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 1pm est).

4-Unit Play. #350. Take Detroit Lions -4.5 over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday @ 1pm est).

4-Unit Play. #361. Take Cleveland Browns -1 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)

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ROOT

dolphins
rams
titans
chargers

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SB Professor
1 PM EST
351. Jacksonville Jaguars +6*

4:25 PM EST
363. Cincinnati Bengals -1*

Rest of Games
349. Indianapolis Colts +6