12-5-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard - College Hoops Game of the Month


Bryan Leonard | CBB Sides Wed, 12/05/12 - 10:15 PM
triple-dime bet 563 Southern California 10.0 (-110) Justbet vs 564 New Mexico
Analysis: 563 USC at New Mexico
When a game has such a low proje‡cted total playing the double digit underdog becomes a very strong play. With USC off a loss and New Mexico coming in undefeated we have a terrific situation to cash on the college hardwood.
These two teams met last year in a total slugfest as the Trojans won 44-41. The total in that game was 115 1/2. Now we find USC getting double digits off three straight losses to Marquette, San Diego State and Nebraska. While New Mexico has gotten off to a great start they have been sizable favorites in every lined game.
We look for an inspired effort out of the dog here with the game being an ugly show paced slugfest. The double digits cannot be ignored.
PLAY USC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

CBB

4 * Drake +2.5

NBA

4 * SAS/MIL over 200.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo CBB

3 * Take #571 North Dakota State (-2.5) over Morehead State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)

2 * Take #541 Southern Illinois (+5) over Western Kentucky (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
2 * Take #533 Tennessee (+5.5) over Virginia (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
2 * Take #540 Milwaukee (-4) over Buffalo (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
2 * Take #547 St. Mary's (-2) over Drake (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
2 * Take #563 USC (+10) over New Mexico (10 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
2 * Take #557 Temple (-3) over Villanova (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
2 * Take #567 Colorado State (+5) over Colorado (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
2 * Take #589 SIU-Edwardsville (+3) over Northern Illinois (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
2 * Take #538 Evansville (-9) over Miami, OH (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)

1 * Take #530 Memphis (-3) over Ohio (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
1 * Take #536 West Virginia (-5.5) over Marshall (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
1 * Take #591 Loyola Marymount (-1) over Northern Arizona (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer - NBA DOUBLE-DIME TOP DOG SHOCKER!


Scott Spreitzer | NBA Sides Wed, 12/05/12 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet 504 CHL 7.5 (-110) 5dimes vs 503 NYK
Analysis: I'm taking the points with the Charlotte Bobcats on Wednesday night. The Bobs have dropped three straight games, but they have all been by 6 or fewer points. I had the Bobcats plus the points over Atlanta recently, and we covered the spread. They're an improving team despite the short losing streak and will face a Knicks' squad that has a big game with Miami on Thursday. The Knicks have won three straight after dropping three of four and I expect them to look past Charlotte enough to keep this one close. The Bobcats are better than advertised inside and have underrated backcourt players in Gordon, Sessions, and Walker, not to mention small-forward Kidd-Gilchrist. The Knicks expect to get Jason Kidd back on the floor after missing four games and Raymond Felton isn't 100% healthy after injuring his hand last time out. Those can be minor distractions that mean a little more with the look-ahead game on deck. I expect Charlotte to hang this number at the very least. I'm taking the points with the Bobcats on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! - Scott Spreitzer.


Andre Gomes - NBA Wednesday Slam Dunk Card (I'll post the rest later)


Andre Gomes | NBA Total Wed, 12/05/12 - 7:05 PM
dime bet 501 POR / 502 IND Over 185.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: NBA - 501 Portland Trailblazers @ 502 Indiana Pacers


Projected Line: 190 points


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 185.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

[Can'tPickAWinner]

kelso

Chairman's Club Basketball
Wednesday, December 05, 2012
25 Units
La Lakers (-5) over Hornets
8:00 PM -- New Orleans Arena
Los Angeles Lakers (8-10) -5 over NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (5-11)
Prediction: Lakers by 10-11
Starting Time: 8:05
TV: Time-Warner Sports Network
Comments: The Los Angeles Lakers opened this season filled with hope and promise but for many reasons simply have not performed up to snuff—maybe because they sorely miss point guard Steve Blake who is out with an abdominal injury and have no one who can run the offense. Regardless, the Lakers have been their own horror story this season and it continued last night when they blew a 13-point 4th-quarter lead and lost at Houston, 107-105. That loss left Los Angeles 1-5 on the road this season but they have a golden opportunity to begin a turn-around tonight as they face a New Orleans team that has had and does have more than its share or problems. The Hornets will again be without two starters tonight, rookie forward Anthony Davis (16.0 points, 8.3 rebounds per game) and guard Eric Gordon. Davis is out indefinitely with an ankle injury while Gordon has been sidelined with knee problems. The Lakers will be without starting forward Pau Gasol for the second straight game but his role was filled quite well last night by Antoine Jamison who scored 15 points and hauled down nine rebounds last night. The situation is right, the stage is set, and the Lakers should get it done tonight with relative ease. For certain, they want to get this money off their back and the sooner the better.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

5* NBA Game of the Week
Charlotte Bobcats +8

4* NCAAB Best Bet
Davidson -8

3* NBA SMash
Utah Jazz -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN 200*

Florida -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ats insider
College hoops
3 Ohio U
3 Detroit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

double-dime bet 502 IND -4.0 (-110) Hilton vs 501 POR Analysis: The Blazers are in a terrible spot. Portland is playing the last game of a seven game road trip and they are off a huge come-from behind overtime win. NBA teams are a combined 13-38-1 ATS (-5.0 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest off an overtime game.
The Blazers themselves are 0-9 ATS (-10.9 ppg) as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and 0-9 ATS (-7.5 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
Continuing, we find that Portland is 0-8-1 ATS (-6.8 ppg) as a rested road dog off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The SDQL text is:
team=Trailblazers and AD and 0<rest and p:W and po:BL>=10 and 20081222<=date

Note that the Blazers are 0-2 ATS in this spot already this season with two double-digit losses.
Turning our attention to the Pacers, we find that they are 8-0-1 ATS (+9.4 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which Roy Hibbert was NOT the Pacers' high scorer and 5-0-1 ATS (+7.0 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which Roy Hibbert had a double-double.
Finally, the player-based trends reveal that the Blazers are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) on the road after a win on the road in which Lamarcus Aldridge was the Trailblazers' high scorer.
Lay this small number.
MTi’s FORECAST: INDIANA 98 Portland 88

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes | NBA Total Wed, 12/05/12 - 7:35 PM
dime bet 509 GSW / 510 DET Over 192.0 Bookmaker.com Analysis: NBA - 509 Golden State Warriors @ 510 Detroit Pistons

Projected Line: 195 points

Golden State has been very competitive lately, as their guards has been playing very well. The Warriors have been very good on pick and roll ball handler plays, as they have just 0.82 PPP on these plays for the season, but the numbers go up to 0.98 PPP over the last six games! Their recent numbers on spot ups (0.99 season vs 1.05 L6), pick and roll roll man plays (0.90 season vs 1.03 L6), 16-23 feet shooting (0.43 eFG% season vs 0.45 eFG% L6) and 3pts shooting (0.52 eFG% season vs 0.60 eFG% L6).also show their recent offensive improvement. At the same time, both David Lee and Carl Landry keep playing very well, so Golden State is right now a good offensive team.


They will face a Pistons defense that is #19 on pick and roll ball handler plays, #30 on post ups and #3 on spot ups defense. Their perimeter defense is looking very well on paper and they have allowed just 77, 90, 92 and 79 points over their last four games, however this was achieved mostly due to the poor spots of their opponents in these games. Phoenix were dead tired after going to overtime at Cleveland, on a back to back spot for them plus it was their third game in four games. Memphis played without Mike Conley and they lack a good outside shooting. Dallas is on a major funk right now, while Cleveland was coming from a double overtime game against Portland. Even though Detroit has been defending well, I believe Golden State's good offense won't have a lot of trou¯bles in putting a decent number of points on the Pistons tonight.


Detroit's offense is completely based on their rim shooting, as 41% of their shots are at the rim. They have a high turnover rate (16.5% TO rate, just like Golden State), however both teams also don't put a lot of pressure on the opposing ball handler, as Golden State is #28 in opposing TO rate with 14.0% and Detroit is #24 with 14.6%. So, both teams won't struggle with turnovers tonight, therefore this is a good offensive spot for both teams. Golden State doesn't have a good rim defense (#19 with 65% FG allowed), while the Pistons are also quite good on their cuts, with Tayshaun Prince and Kyle Singler penetrating well into the basket. The Warriors are #24 in cuts defense with 1.24 PPP allowed, so I believe Detroit will have success on their cuts tonight.


I expect both teams to have good offensive games tonight, as Golden State is playing very well on offense, while Detroit with this new starting lineup that replaced Rodney Stuckey with Kyle Singler is also much better on offense. I believe this will be a high scoring game, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alatex now looking to lose 4 straight superplays in college hoops
15 superplay wisc.-mil.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

3* Knicks Over 197
2* WVir OVER 143
2* Drake + 2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CappersJungle
pd plays

A.. $55 TO WIN $50
TEMPLE -3½-110

B ... $55 TO WIN $50
BYU -11 -110

C ... $55 TO WIN $50
CHICAGO -3-110

D ... $110 TO WIN $100
DETROIT -1-110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Edwards's Pick Pack

NBA Daily Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Orlando at Utah Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Wed) Play: Orlando (+9 -110) Line Source: Caesars/Harrah's Posted on: December 5, 2012 @ 1:53:23 AM EST Orlando owns a 4-0-1 spread record in five games as an underdog of eight points or more this season. The Magic have enjoyed a perfect road trip to date, winning outright over the Lakers and former teammate Dwight Howard before capturing another win over the 10-7 Warriors. J.J. Redick is playing the best basketball of his career this year and his numbers for the last two games have been outstanding: 36 points, 14 assists, seven rebounds and only one turnover. I like Orlando to stay hot on this West-coast trip.

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Denver at Atlanta Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Wed) Play: Atlanta (-1 -110) Line Source: BetOnline.ag Posted on: December 5, 2012 @ 1:22:12 AM EST Atlanta has had four days to shake off a bad home loss to Cleveland and prepare for Denver. The Hawks had won six in a row before letting a lead get away in the loss to the Cavs. They have won five of their eight home games, while the Nuggets have lost eight of their 12 road assignments. I like Atlanta's advantage in the paint with Al Horford, Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia going up against Kosta Koufos, Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee. Give me the Hawks at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KELSO

50 Units Bounce-Back Game Of Week

Colorado (-5) over Colorado State
10:30 PM -- Coors Events Center
College Bounce-Back Game of the Week
COLORADO BUFFALOES (6-1) -5 over Colorado State Rams (6-0)
Prediction: Colorado by 11-12
Played at Coors Events Center (11,064) in Boulder, Colorado
Starting Time: 10:35
TV: PAC-12 Network, Direct TV, Dish Network: 413

Comments: It has not been long ago basketball programs at both these schools were mostly an afterthought but all of that obviously has changed. Colorado went 24-12 last season and made its second straight NCAA appearance. Colorado State finished 20-12 and also attended the big dance. In other words, basketball is now a serious game in Fort Collins and Boulder and the rivalry between these two schools (the 121st meeting) was never more heated. Colorado State has been successfully flexing its muscles with four starters from last year’s team and the Rams face the acid test tonight as the visitor in Boulder. The home court at Coors Events Center carries with it a strong bias and that, along with the fact Colorado lost its first game of the season Saturday at still-undefeated Wyoming, 76-69, and is thus in major bounce-back form, should put the Buffaloes in the winner’s circle. Colorado State has played two road games this season, winning at Denver, 60-53, and at Washington, 73-55, but does take a major step in class tonight.

25 Units

La Lakers (-5) over Hornets
8:00 PM -- New Orleans Arena
Los Angeles Lakers (8-10) -5 over NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (5-11)
Prediction: Lakers by 10-11
Starting Time: 8:05
TV: Time-Warner Sports Network

Comments: The Los Angeles Lakers opened this season filled with hope and promise but for many reasons simply have not performed up to snuff—maybe because they sorely miss point guard Steve Blake who is out with an abdominal injury and have no one who can run the offense. Regardless, the Lakers have been their own horror story this season and it continued last night when they blew a 13-point 4th-quarter lead and lost at Houston, 107-105. That loss left Los Angeles 1-5 on the road this season but they have a golden opportunity to begin a turn-around tonight as they face a New Orleans team that has had and does have more than its share or problems. The Hornets will again be without two starters tonight, rookie forward Anthony Davis (16.0 points, 8.3 rebounds per game) and guard Eric Gordon. Davis is out indefinitely with an ankle injury while Gordon has been sidelined with knee problems. The Lakers will be without starting forward Pau Gasol for the second straight game but his role was filled quite well last night by Antoine Jamison who scored 15 points and hauled down nine rebounds last night. The situation is right, the stage is set, and the Lakers should get it done tonight with relative ease. For certain, they want to get this money off their back and the sooner the better.

10 Units

Boise State (-6) over Utah
8:30 PM -- Jon M. Huntsman Center
Boise State Broncos (6-1) -6 over UTAH UTES (5-2)
Prediction: Boise State by 10-11
Played at Jon M. Huntsman Center (15,000) in Salt Lake City, Utah
Starting Time: 8:35
TV: PAC-12 Network

Comments: At some point in time a great Utah basketball program fell off the edge of the world and despite its 5-2 record seems a long way from finding its way back to relevancy. The Utes’ five victories have come at the hands of Willamette, Idaho State, Central Michigan, Wright State and Texas State—hardly a killer’s row of opponents. Their two losses came at SMU, 62-55, and at home against Sacramento State, 74-71. If Utah has a strength it is its defense, which gives up just 57.6 points per game while limiting the opposition to a 34.0% shooting average from the floor. On the other hand, Boise State is everything Utah is not. The Broncos-definitely one of the most under-rated teams in college basketball, have gone 2-1 on the road this season. After losing their first away game at Michigan State, 74-70, the Broncos returned home and crushed Cal-Santa Barbara, 72-56, and then played their last two games on the road, beating Seattle, 87-64, in their last game and knocking off 11th-ranked Creighton, 83-70, in Omaha in the contest before that. This is by far the most talented team in Boise basketball history and has everything it takes to bury Utah.

15 units

Dayton (+8½) over Alabama
9:00 PM -- Coleman Coliseum
Dayton Flyers (5-2) +8 ½ over ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (6-1)
Prediction: Dayton by 2-3
Played at Coleman Coliseum (15,383) in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Starting Time: 9:05
TV: Time-Warner Ohio, Comcast Sports Southeast

Comments: Dayton, which lost its only true road game this season at nationally-ranked Colorado (6-1), 67-57, as a 2-point underdog, is a much better team than those making betting lines realize and that gives us a 2-3-point edge before the game ever tips off. With that said, the talent on these teams is dead-even and Dayton is catching Alabama with just eight scholarship players ready to play tonight, as former starting guard, redshirt senior Andrew Steele is out with a groin injury and back-up center, 7-1 junior Carl Engstrom, is out with a knee injury. Last, but not least, both teams play excellent defense, with Alabama giving up but 54.9 points per game and Dayton surrendering but 60.7, the +8 ½ gets even bigger. My figures say Dayton wins this one straight up.