If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
2 Unit Play. Take #801 Over 194 Denver at Indiana (7:05 p.m., Friday, December 7)
3 Unit Play. Take #824 Sacramento -2 ½ over Orlando (10:05 p.m., Friday, December 7)
4-STAR Memphis -7 over NEW ORLEANS - With Anthony Davis still out for this contest, New Orleans just doesn't have the size or strength inside to match Memphis' two post threats. New Orleans has already played three Western Conference contenders this homestand, losing by 12, 21 and 16. Look for a similar margin here.
They are getting a Memphis team off an overtime game but they've had two days of rest since that 108-98 overtime win over Phoenix. The Hornets are 0-6 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since February 04, 2005 with at most one day of rest after a home loss when their opponent is off an overtime game.
Even going to overtime, Memphis had just 13 assists in that game. That was on 40 total baskets. The Grizzlies are 8-0-1 ATS (7.8 ppg) since April 09, 2010 on the road after a game in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. Also, the Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since April 09, 2010 on the road after a game in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted.
Those 13 assists went along with having the ball stolen 12 times and committing 19 total turnovers. The Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since February 08, 2011 on the road after a game in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.
Rudy Gay was one offender with four turnovers and just two assists. The Grizzlies are 6-0-1 ATS (6.5 ppg) since May 05, 2012 after a win in which Rudy Gay had more turnovers than assists.
What saved them was a monster game from Zach Randolph with 38 points. Mike Conley chipped in with 11. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS (6.2 ppg) since May 05, 2012 on the road after a win in which Mike Conley was not the Grizzlies' high scorer.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Memphis 105, NEW ORLEANS 89
4-STAR Washington and Atlanta Under 192.5 - With plenty of rest recently, Atlanta has been played into shootouts in their past two games. With no rest tomorrow in what will be an interesting game at Memphis followed by a visit to Miami after that, we don't think they are going to want to use all that energy again here. Look for this one to have lower paced action.
Atlanta's last two games were a 113-111 loss to Cleveland last Friday and a 108-104 win over Denver Wednesday. Prior to that they had not allowed more than 100 points since the opening game of the season. The Hawks are 0-9 OU (-17.4 ppg) since February 27, 2009 when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two straight games.
In that Denver win, the difference came in the volume of shots as they attempted 16 more than the Nuggets while making four more. The Hawks rare 0-7 OU (-11.0 ppg) since January 15, 2001 as a favorite after a game at home in which they had at least 15 more shot attempts than their opponent.
Washington meanwhile is coming off a huge 105-101 upset win over Miami Tuesday. Of their 38 baskets in that game, 31 were assisted. The Wizards are 0-10 OU (-13.8 ppg) since January 20, 1997 as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they had at least thirty assists.
That was countered by committing only 10 turnovers as well. The Wizards are 0-9-1 OU (-9.1 ppg) since April 09, 2002 on the road with two or more days of rest after a win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
Jordan Crawford led Washington with 22 points in that win. However, when these teams met two weeks ago in a 101-100 overtime win for Atlanta, Crawford had just nine points. The Wizards are 0-8 OU (-17.4 ppg) since February 15, 2012 on the road after losing the previous matchup in which Jordan Crawford was not the Wizards' high scorer.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ATLANTA 95, Washington 87
4-STAR Denver +2 over INDIANA - Indiana's been able to cover up for the loss of Danny Granger the past two games with some strong performances but its eventually going to catch up to them. Against a team which likes to play at Denver's pace, when volume scoring is needed for victory, we see it posing a problem for the Pacers.
Denver enters hungry off a 108-104 loss to Atlanta. They had to fight back in that game from a bigger double digit deficit however. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (14.5 ppg) since March 21, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer on the road in which they trailed by double digits.
What killed them in that game were turnovers, as they committed 20, while attempting just 78 shots. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 13, 2005 on the road with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four. Also, the Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since March 08, 2003 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.
Indiana is coming off a 92-83 win over Portland Wednesday. It was a clean game where they committed just 12 fouls. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since January 31, 2004 after a game at home in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls.
Plenty of players stepped up in that game, including Paul George leading the team with 22 points, but Roy Hibbert was not one of them. He had 10 points and they came on just 3-of-13 shooting. The Pacers are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since May 13, 2012 after a win at home in which Roy Hibbert was not the Pacers' high scorer. Also, the Pacers are 0-5 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since March 02, 2010 with at least a day of rest after a win in which Roy Hibbert shot worse than 33% from the field.
Comment