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Game: Tennessee at Indianapolis (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tennessee +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Indianapolis Colts have turned a disastrous season a year ago into one in which they’re a bona fide playoffs contender at 8-4, if they can finish the job over the last four weeks. Andrew Luck has given them a passing game. He's having an amazing year and appears to be establishing himself already as an elite NFL quarerback..... Record scratch. While this is what you hear from the stuffed suits, the reality may surprise you. Blaine Gabbert. Kevin Kolb. Tennessee's Jake Locker. What do these three quarterbacks have in common? They aren't very good. Yes, that's true, but what else? They are all looking down on Andrew Luck in the quarterback rating standings. That's right, the better quarterback statistically in this game is not named Luck. Luck will be a great quarterback in this league, but he's still a rookie on a bad team. Luck has passed for over 3,500 yards, but because the Colts struggle to run the ball, Luck is on schedule to approach the 700-pass mark this season. He has a pedestrian passer rating in the mid-70s, and he has just one more touchdown than interceptions on the season. The Colts may be 8-4, but they have been out-scored by 41 points on the season. They have been very fortunate to win every close game, and six of their eight wins have been in either overtime or by 4 points or less. The fact is that if they were giving 5 points in every game they would be 3-9. Jake Locker is going to be able to move the chains, as the Colts have mustered just six sacks in their last four games. Chris Johnson got 99 yards in the first game, and the Colts have surrendered 100+ on the ground in each of their last three. The Titans are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after scoring 14 or fewer in their previous game. This is the most points Indy has had to lay in two years. It's too large. Take the underdog here. Also take the UNDER. Division games are always more intense battles. Teneessee's non-division games this season have averaged 56 points. Their division games have averaged just 40 per game. Non-division Colts games have averaged 51 points while their division games are averaging just 36. So between the two teams, non-division games have averaged 53.5 points while division contests have averaged 38 points - that's a huge 15.5 points per game difference! And this isn't just a recent phenomenon. Tennessee is 14-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 20 inside the division overall while the Colts have gone 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 in the division. The last 16 meetings between these teams has seen the UNDER prevail in 13 of them, and in Indy the UNDER is 10-1 in the last 11 when these teams square off. Under head coach Mike Munchak, the Titans are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. Take Tennessee here and play the UNDER.
Game: Kansas City at Cleveland (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Kansas City +6.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Kansas City Chiefs have turned the ball over more than any team in the league. It has cost them five games where they out-gained their opponents this season. So despite outgaining their opponent, all five went in the loss column because of their careless sloppy play. Last week Brady Quinn and the Chiefs played an error-free game, and it resulted in posting their second win of the season. This is a 2-10 team simply because of the turnovers, but that won’t last forever as a good part of it is random. So, that's one reason the number here looks a bit large. The second reason has to do with Cleveland. This is just the second time the Browns have been favored all season. Cleveland has won two in a row but the first one took eight turnovers by the Steelers with a backup QB. In that game, they still had to stop a potential game-winning drive to preserve that win. Last week they played at Oakland and surrendered over 400 yards, but managed to squeak out a 3-point win. Only four quarterbacks this season own a worse passer rating than Brandon Weeden. If the Chiefs can do anything, it's run the ball with Jamaal Charles. That's not good news for the Browns who are 0-7 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams like Kansas City that rush for 130+ yards per game. This is a very tall task for Cleveland as in their last 26 games they own just one win by more than 6 points, and the Chiefs are certainly capable of winning here. This is a quantum leap by oddsmakers as the Browns have been favored by more than 3 points just two times in their last 76 games. Those did not work out well, as they lost outright in one, and won by 1 point in the other. Take the points and back Kansas City.
Game: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia +7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Eagles are about as ugly as it gets. They have dropped eight straight games, lost their starting QB, and their long tenured coach appears to be on the chopping block. To make things worse, they just released their best pass rusher. That sounds like a team that is ready to pack things in. That is, until you look at what they have done over the last two weeks. They lost at Carolina, but only by 8 points despite a -3 turnover disadvantage. That tells me that this team has not yet quit. Last week, Nick Foles and Bryce Brown combined for over 400 yards of offense in a competitive 5-point loss in Dallas. Those two players are another reason this team has not quit as both are trying to make a name for themselves so they don't have to remain backups. The Eagles finally have a running game to take the pressure off of Foles, and I expect them to use more of it here to keep the defense off the field. Tampa Bay got into a five week offensive groove that showed them average 35.6 points per game. They have since come back down to earth in their last three games where they have averaged over 10 points less than that, and have not topped 23 in regulation minutes. Doug Martin has had a great rookie season with over 1,100 yards, but almost half of it came in three weeks. He has been slowed in all other games, and lately has just 106 yards on his last 39 carries. The Bucs are just 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 at home and that includes an even worse 3-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing road record. Under Andy Reid, this team is 28-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Eagles have played 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight on the road, as well as 26-10 to the UNDER in their last 36 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. In their last 14 games after scoring 30+ and allowing 30+, the Eagles are 12-2 to the UNDER. Play on Philadelphia and take the UNDER.
Game: Baltimore at Washington (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Washington Redskins kept their playoffs hopes alive with a big emotional win over division rival New York on Monday Night. The whole nation saw that and the hype-machine on the Skins (and RGIII in particular) is at a season-high. This team now has to come back from that huge emotional game on short rest and getting up like that for two straight games is very hard in the NFL. They face a 9-3 Ravens team that is going to be (more) hungry off a loss. The Ravens have played one bad game all season which resulted in a lopsided 43-13 defeat against Houston. Their other two losses have been by 1 and 3 points. So despite any perceived issues with this team, the fact is they just win (or keep the game very close). The Ravens are 36-12 in their last 48 regular season games and 9 of the 12 losses have been by 5 points or less. It doesn't seem to matter if they have injuries or not, this team comes to play every week. They win most of their games, and are in it to the end in the ones they do lose. Washington has gotten better on the defensive side of the ball, and even though RGII has been very solid and Alfred Morris has run for over 1,100 yards, the Skins have still scored only 17 points or less in half of their last eight games. Baltimore always brings a strong physicality to every game, and the Skins are off of one of those games vs. the Giants and are on short rest here. Baltimore is going to be physical here, and that usually means defensive, as four of their last five on the road have played to the UNDER. The Skins have played 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six. This will be their toughest back-to-back games of the season, and I don't think at this stage of their development they are up for the challenge. Dating back to his time with Denver, Mike Shanahan is 4-21 ATS in his last 25 home games when favored. Meanwhile, under Jon Harbaugh, the Ravens are 22-12 ATS in expected close games (line of +3 to -3) and 14-5 ATS on the road following an ATS loss. Take Baltimore and play on the UNDER.
Game: Dallas at Cincinnati (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 46 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Here we have a late season inter-conference game that typically doesn't have the value of conference games. The difference here is that both of these teams need this game and the playoff implications are big. They are both fringe-playoffs teams, and a loss definitely hamstrings the loser in a big way. Expect a lot of intensity and defensive effort. The Bengals have really stepped things up on the defensive side of the ball since the mid-point of the season. They allowed 27.3 points per game in their first eight games, but have since allowed 10.5 ppg over their last four, becoming a tough stop-unit. Dallas has been involved in some high-scoring games of late, but when they have had to step up vs. the Giants they allowed 17. And, they held Atlanta to just 19 points. The return of DeMarco Murray for the Cowboys, and the emergence of Benjarvis Green-Ellis in Cincinnati will mean a lot of running in this game, which will shorten the game. Dallas has brought the defense on the road where they are 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine road games. The Bengals are also 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six after allowing 14 or less in their last game. Dallis is 2-4 UNDER on the road while Cincinnati is 4-2 UNDER at home. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 33-20 UNDER vs. teamst hat complete 61%+ of their passes and 21-11 UNDER vs. teams that pass for 235+ yards per game. Play the UNDER in this game.
Game: Miami at San Francisco (Sunday 12/09 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Miami +10 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Things have gotten a little bit complicated in the Bay Area. The only thing that would bring into question Jim Harbaugh's decision to bench Alex Smith in favor of Colin Kaepernick would be a loss in a game they were supposed to win. Ooops. I am not saying it wasn't the right decision. I think it was. But, now the confidence that surrounded this team is cracking a bit, thanks to having lost or tied three of their last seven games. Teams now have tape in multiple games on what to do to have a chance against the Niners as the Giants destroyed them, and the Rams have now beaten or tied them twice. Most expect a big rebound here, but laying 10 points in the NFL is a tall order, especially in a game that is expected to be very low-scoring. The spread in this game reprsents over 25% of the entire total. Miami is not a great team, but they are capable and their defense, which has allowed under 21 points per game on average, keeps them in most games. Last week they kep the high-powered Patriots to their lowest output of the season. They have allowed more than 24 points in just two games all season and San Francisco's offense is decent, but not great. Underdogs of more than a touchdown this season are 24-14 ATS. And, Miami gets up for good opponents. They have gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. winning teams. Take Miami to stay within this huge number.
Game: New Orleans at New York Giants (Sunday 12/09 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New Orleans +5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
It looked like the struggling Giants were about to flip the switch after crushing Green Bay two games ago. But, last week they stumbled once again in Washington and have now lost three of their last four. Their lead in the NFC East is down to just one game. After a horrible start, the Saints have gotten to 5-7, and have to run the table to have a shot at the playoffs. As long as they have Drew Brees at the helm, they are certainly capable. They managed a 2-2 stretch in their last four despite two vs. Atlanta and another vs. San Francisco. Eli Manning is down 1 full yard per attempt this season. He had a big game vs. the Packers, but has thrown just three TD passes in the other six games over the last seven weeks. Drew Brees has tossed multiple TD passes in 10 games on the season and the Saints will come to play this week. The Saints are now 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after a loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a winning team. They are also 11-3 ATS since last season vs. bad pass defenses (those allowing 61%+ completions) and 10-2 ATS vs. teams like New York that allow 350+ yards per game. The Giants are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a losing team. The points loom large here. Take New Orleans.
Game: Arizona at Seattle (Sunday 12/09 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arizona +10 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Cardinals looked like a team turning the corner when they finished last season at 7-2 in their last nine games. They opened this season 4-0 this year, making them 11-2 over a 13 game stretch. The problem was that even at 4-0, they were getting outgained. The wheels have since fallen off, and the Cards have now dropped eight games in a row. The issues have been at QB where injuries and poor play have held this team back. They scored 20 or points more in all of their first four game, but have not hit the 20-point mark since. Over the last 10 weeks the Seahawks have played well and Russell Wilson is showing signs of greatness. There is no doubt which is the better team here. The issue in backing Seattle is laying double digits. This is a team that isn't exactly the kind that is involved with too many blowouts. Their six wins in this time period show that they recorded one in overtime, and three others by 4 points or less. It has a lot to do with their own offense which produces just 20.2 points per game. That is dangerous territory for a double-digit favorite, especially in a division game vs. a team desperate for a win. This line is inflated because of the Cardinals’ losing streak. The fact is that teams on eight-game losing streaks in the NFL are 25-13 ATS. Hold your nose, cover your eyes, and take Arizona plus the points in this one.
Game: Detroit at Green Bay (Sunday 12/09 8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Detroit +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Last season everything went right for the Detroit Lions, but this season everything is going wrong. They had three victories snatched away in the closing minutes in their last three games, and they sit at 4-8 with their playoffs hopes gone. Despite the eight losses, the Lions have been in every game this season. Their biggest loss came by 10 points, and seven of the losses were one-possession games. They play hard every game, and with a rivalry game against the Packers, I don't think that changes here. The Packers’ offense is not close to what it was a year ago as their offensive line can't stop the defenses. That has limited Aaron Rodgers and he has taken a beating this season, getting sacked 39 times already. Detroit can get after the QB, and their offense ranks No. 2 in the league - just 10 yards per game behind New England. The Lions have made a game of things every time they have taken the field this season and I don't expect things to be any different here. Get behind Detroit
Game: Tennessee at Indianapolis (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tennessee +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Indianapolis Colts have turned a disastrous season a year ago into one in which they’re a bona fide playoffs contender at 8-4, if they can finish the job over the last four weeks. Andrew Luck has given them a passing game. He's having an amazing year and appears to be establishing himself already as an elite NFL quarerback..... Record scratch. While this is what you hear from the stuffed suits, the reality may surprise you. Blaine Gabbert. Kevin Kolb. Tennessee's Jake Locker. What do these three quarterbacks have in common? They aren't very good. Yes, that's true, but what else? They are all looking down on Andrew Luck in the quarterback rating standings. That's right, the better quarterback statistically in this game is not named Luck. Luck will be a great quarterback in this league, but he's still a rookie on a bad team. Luck has passed for over 3,500 yards, but because the Colts struggle to run the ball, Luck is on schedule to approach the 700-pass mark this season. He has a pedestrian passer rating in the mid-70s, and he has just one more touchdown than interceptions on the season. The Colts may be 8-4, but they have been out-scored by 41 points on the season. They have been very fortunate to win every close game, and six of their eight wins have been in either overtime or by 4 points or less. The fact is that if they were giving 5 points in every game they would be 3-9. Jake Locker is going to be able to move the chains, as the Colts have mustered just six sacks in their last four games. Chris Johnson got 99 yards in the first game, and the Colts have surrendered 100+ on the ground in each of their last three. The Titans are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after scoring 14 or fewer in their previous game. This is the most points Indy has had to lay in two years. It's too large. Take the underdog here. Also take the UNDER. Division games are always more intense battles. Teneessee's non-division games this season have averaged 56 points. Their division games have averaged just 40 per game. Non-division Colts games have averaged 51 points while their division games are averaging just 36. So between the two teams, non-division games have averaged 53.5 points while division contests have averaged 38 points - that's a huge 15.5 points per game difference! And this isn't just a recent phenomenon. Tennessee is 14-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 20 inside the division overall while the Colts have gone 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 in the division. The last 16 meetings between these teams has seen the UNDER prevail in 13 of them, and in Indy the UNDER is 10-1 in the last 11 when these teams square off. Under head coach Mike Munchak, the Titans are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. Take Tennessee here and play the UNDER.
Game: Kansas City at Cleveland (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Kansas City +6.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Kansas City Chiefs have turned the ball over more than any team in the league. It has cost them five games where they out-gained their opponents this season. So despite outgaining their opponent, all five went in the loss column because of their careless sloppy play. Last week Brady Quinn and the Chiefs played an error-free game, and it resulted in posting their second win of the season. This is a 2-10 team simply because of the turnovers, but that won’t last forever as a good part of it is random. So, that's one reason the number here looks a bit large. The second reason has to do with Cleveland. This is just the second time the Browns have been favored all season. Cleveland has won two in a row but the first one took eight turnovers by the Steelers with a backup QB. In that game, they still had to stop a potential game-winning drive to preserve that win. Last week they played at Oakland and surrendered over 400 yards, but managed to squeak out a 3-point win. Only four quarterbacks this season own a worse passer rating than Brandon Weeden. If the Chiefs can do anything, it's run the ball with Jamaal Charles. That's not good news for the Browns who are 0-7 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams like Kansas City that rush for 130+ yards per game. This is a very tall task for Cleveland as in their last 26 games they own just one win by more than 6 points, and the Chiefs are certainly capable of winning here. This is a quantum leap by oddsmakers as the Browns have been favored by more than 3 points just two times in their last 76 games. Those did not work out well, as they lost outright in one, and won by 1 point in the other. Take the points and back Kansas City.
Game: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia +7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Eagles are about as ugly as it gets. They have dropped eight straight games, lost their starting QB, and their long tenured coach appears to be on the chopping block. To make things worse, they just released their best pass rusher. That sounds like a team that is ready to pack things in. That is, until you look at what they have done over the last two weeks. They lost at Carolina, but only by 8 points despite a -3 turnover disadvantage. That tells me that this team has not yet quit. Last week, Nick Foles and Bryce Brown combined for over 400 yards of offense in a competitive 5-point loss in Dallas. Those two players are another reason this team has not quit as both are trying to make a name for themselves so they don't have to remain backups. The Eagles finally have a running game to take the pressure off of Foles, and I expect them to use more of it here to keep the defense off the field. Tampa Bay got into a five week offensive groove that showed them average 35.6 points per game. They have since come back down to earth in their last three games where they have averaged over 10 points less than that, and have not topped 23 in regulation minutes. Doug Martin has had a great rookie season with over 1,100 yards, but almost half of it came in three weeks. He has been slowed in all other games, and lately has just 106 yards on his last 39 carries. The Bucs are just 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 at home and that includes an even worse 3-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing road record. Under Andy Reid, this team is 28-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Eagles have played 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight on the road, as well as 26-10 to the UNDER in their last 36 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. In their last 14 games after scoring 30+ and allowing 30+, the Eagles are 12-2 to the UNDER. Play on Philadelphia and take the UNDER.
Game: Baltimore at Washington (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Washington Redskins kept their playoffs hopes alive with a big emotional win over division rival New York on Monday Night. The whole nation saw that and the hype-machine on the Skins (and RGIII in particular) is at a season-high. This team now has to come back from that huge emotional game on short rest and getting up like that for two straight games is very hard in the NFL. They face a 9-3 Ravens team that is going to be (more) hungry off a loss. The Ravens have played one bad game all season which resulted in a lopsided 43-13 defeat against Houston. Their other two losses have been by 1 and 3 points. So despite any perceived issues with this team, the fact is they just win (or keep the game very close). The Ravens are 36-12 in their last 48 regular season games and 9 of the 12 losses have been by 5 points or less. It doesn't seem to matter if they have injuries or not, this team comes to play every week. They win most of their games, and are in it to the end in the ones they do lose. Washington has gotten better on the defensive side of the ball, and even though RGII has been very solid and Alfred Morris has run for over 1,100 yards, the Skins have still scored only 17 points or less in half of their last eight games. Baltimore always brings a strong physicality to every game, and the Skins are off of one of those games vs. the Giants and are on short rest here. Baltimore is going to be physical here, and that usually means defensive, as four of their last five on the road have played to the UNDER. The Skins have played 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six. This will be their toughest back-to-back games of the season, and I don't think at this stage of their development they are up for the challenge. Dating back to his time with Denver, Mike Shanahan is 4-21 ATS in his last 25 home games when favored. Meanwhile, under Jon Harbaugh, the Ravens are 22-12 ATS in expected close games (line of +3 to -3) and 14-5 ATS on the road following an ATS loss. Take Baltimore and play on the UNDER.
Game: Dallas at Cincinnati (Sunday 12/09 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 46 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Here we have a late season inter-conference game that typically doesn't have the value of conference games. The difference here is that both of these teams need this game and the playoff implications are big. They are both fringe-playoffs teams, and a loss definitely hamstrings the loser in a big way. Expect a lot of intensity and defensive effort. The Bengals have really stepped things up on the defensive side of the ball since the mid-point of the season. They allowed 27.3 points per game in their first eight games, but have since allowed 10.5 ppg over their last four, becoming a tough stop-unit. Dallas has been involved in some high-scoring games of late, but when they have had to step up vs. the Giants they allowed 17. And, they held Atlanta to just 19 points. The return of DeMarco Murray for the Cowboys, and the emergence of Benjarvis Green-Ellis in Cincinnati will mean a lot of running in this game, which will shorten the game. Dallas has brought the defense on the road where they are 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine road games. The Bengals are also 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six after allowing 14 or less in their last game. Dallis is 2-4 UNDER on the road while Cincinnati is 4-2 UNDER at home. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 33-20 UNDER vs. teamst hat complete 61%+ of their passes and 21-11 UNDER vs. teams that pass for 235+ yards per game. Play the UNDER in this game.
Game: Miami at San Francisco (Sunday 12/09 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Miami +10 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Things have gotten a little bit complicated in the Bay Area. The only thing that would bring into question Jim Harbaugh's decision to bench Alex Smith in favor of Colin Kaepernick would be a loss in a game they were supposed to win. Ooops. I am not saying it wasn't the right decision. I think it was. But, now the confidence that surrounded this team is cracking a bit, thanks to having lost or tied three of their last seven games. Teams now have tape in multiple games on what to do to have a chance against the Niners as the Giants destroyed them, and the Rams have now beaten or tied them twice. Most expect a big rebound here, but laying 10 points in the NFL is a tall order, especially in a game that is expected to be very low-scoring. The spread in this game reprsents over 25% of the entire total. Miami is not a great team, but they are capable and their defense, which has allowed under 21 points per game on average, keeps them in most games. Last week they kep the high-powered Patriots to their lowest output of the season. They have allowed more than 24 points in just two games all season and San Francisco's offense is decent, but not great. Underdogs of more than a touchdown this season are 24-14 ATS. And, Miami gets up for good opponents. They have gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. winning teams. Take Miami to stay within this huge number.
Game: New Orleans at New York Giants (Sunday 12/09 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New Orleans +5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
It looked like the struggling Giants were about to flip the switch after crushing Green Bay two games ago. But, last week they stumbled once again in Washington and have now lost three of their last four. Their lead in the NFC East is down to just one game. After a horrible start, the Saints have gotten to 5-7, and have to run the table to have a shot at the playoffs. As long as they have Drew Brees at the helm, they are certainly capable. They managed a 2-2 stretch in their last four despite two vs. Atlanta and another vs. San Francisco. Eli Manning is down 1 full yard per attempt this season. He had a big game vs. the Packers, but has thrown just three TD passes in the other six games over the last seven weeks. Drew Brees has tossed multiple TD passes in 10 games on the season and the Saints will come to play this week. The Saints are now 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after a loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a winning team. They are also 11-3 ATS since last season vs. bad pass defenses (those allowing 61%+ completions) and 10-2 ATS vs. teams like New York that allow 350+ yards per game. The Giants are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a losing team. The points loom large here. Take New Orleans.
Game: Arizona at Seattle (Sunday 12/09 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arizona +10 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Cardinals looked like a team turning the corner when they finished last season at 7-2 in their last nine games. They opened this season 4-0 this year, making them 11-2 over a 13 game stretch. The problem was that even at 4-0, they were getting outgained. The wheels have since fallen off, and the Cards have now dropped eight games in a row. The issues have been at QB where injuries and poor play have held this team back. They scored 20 or points more in all of their first four game, but have not hit the 20-point mark since. Over the last 10 weeks the Seahawks have played well and Russell Wilson is showing signs of greatness. There is no doubt which is the better team here. The issue in backing Seattle is laying double digits. This is a team that isn't exactly the kind that is involved with too many blowouts. Their six wins in this time period show that they recorded one in overtime, and three others by 4 points or less. It has a lot to do with their own offense which produces just 20.2 points per game. That is dangerous territory for a double-digit favorite, especially in a division game vs. a team desperate for a win. This line is inflated because of the Cardinals’ losing streak. The fact is that teams on eight-game losing streaks in the NFL are 25-13 ATS. Hold your nose, cover your eyes, and take Arizona plus the points in this one.
Game: Detroit at Green Bay (Sunday 12/09 8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Detroit +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Last season everything went right for the Detroit Lions, but this season everything is going wrong. They had three victories snatched away in the closing minutes in their last three games, and they sit at 4-8 with their playoffs hopes gone. Despite the eight losses, the Lions have been in every game this season. Their biggest loss came by 10 points, and seven of the losses were one-possession games. They play hard every game, and with a rivalry game against the Packers, I don't think that changes here. The Packers’ offense is not close to what it was a year ago as their offensive line can't stop the defenses. That has limited Aaron Rodgers and he has taken a beating this season, getting sacked 39 times already. Detroit can get after the QB, and their offense ranks No. 2 in the league - just 10 yards per game behind New England. The Lions have made a game of things every time they have taken the field this season and I don't expect things to be any different here. Get behind Detroit
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