12-10-12

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Joe Gavazzi

Sacramento at Dallas (-6) 8:30PM
4* Sacramento Kings (+6)

There is no small risk in backing a Kings team who is just 1-6 SU away, and who has lost 16 consecutive trips to Big D. But without Dirk in the lineup, the Mavs are just 1-4 ATS HF of late. Meanwhile, surging Sac has recorded three consecutive victories as this emerging team builds momentum. But it is a most recent game for each that saw Dallas upset Houston, and Sac upset Portland, that has keyed this strong situation. In NBA action, road teams off a SU road dog win, are 41-16 ATS (72%) against home chalk that comes off a straight up underdog win vs a divisional rival. Let’s try these upstart Kings as the underdog.

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Bones Best Bet

Warriors -4.5 -104 *1 unit*

Hawks +7.5 -108 *1 unit*

Spurs -6 -108 *1 unit*

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NBA TOTALS

12/10 Free Play - 710 Mavericks -6.5

12/10 Free Play - 703 Warriors -4.5

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ATS Insider Picks

NFL:
3 Under 52 Houston/ New England

NBA:
3 Over 195.5 Atlanta Miami

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Vegas Sports Informer

2 Unit Play. Take #712 Portland -3 ½ over Toronto (10:05 p.m., Monday, December 10)
Yes I know the Blazers are all banged up but I believe the Blazers are still the better team against Toronto. The Raptors are horrible on the road and Toronto have struggled against Portland in the past. Toronto is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings against Portland and the Raptors are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Portland.

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Joe Gavazzi - NBA Triple Play


Joe Gavazzi | NBA Sides Mon, 12/10/12 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet 703 GSW -4.5 (-110) Justbet vs 704 CHL
Analysis: Golden St (-4) at Charlotte 7:00PM 2* Momentum Mismatch Golden St (-4) The Golden St triplets in Curry, Thompson and Lee, are lighting it up for a Golden team, which is on a 10-3 SU run, including three consecutive road wins to begin a 7 game road trip. That is not surprising, as under the guidance of HC Jackson, the Warriors have been a 28-15 ATS road team. Charlotte has lost their way of late as they enter on negative runs of 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS. The problem has been a defense which in that losing streak has allowed 110 PPG. They are recently 0-5 SU at home, 1-4 ATS. Must play the road momentum of the visitor as Curry lights it up in his homecoming, with daddy Dell at the mic for the Bobcats.


Joe Gavazzi | NBA Sides Mon, 12/10/12 - 8:05 PM
triple-dime bet 707 SAN -6.5 (-110) Justbet vs 708 HOU
Analysis: San Antonio (-5) at Houston 8:05PM 3* Inside Information Injury Play San Antonio (-5) The Rockets are struggling off consecutive losses to Dallas (116-109), and these Spurs, (114-92). With the ailing ankle of their star, Harden, limiting his effectiveness tonight, and a 104 PPG defense (114 PPG L5 games), expect the Spurs to continue their dominance of the NBA tonight. Before succumbing to OKC in the playoffs last year, the Spurs were on a 20-0 late season run. This year, they have begun 17-4 SU, including a recent 9-4 SU, 8-2 ATS streak. They have also covered 7/8 recent road games, with their last three wins in the role of road favorite by 30, 21, and 26 points. The recent high-scoring victories in which they have totaled 132, 114, and 110 in their most recent three games, sets up an NBA road favorite scoring situation that is 117-64 ATS in this price range. Follow the momentum of the Spurs for a probable blowout here.


Joe Gavazzi | NBA Sides Mon, 12/10/12 - 7:35 PM
double-dime bet 705 ATL 7.5 (-110) Justbet vs 706 MIA
Analysis: Atlanta at Miami (-7) 7:30PM 2* Defensive Dandy Atlanta (+7) When Miami defeated Atlanta 95-89 (as -5) earlier in the season, it ran the record of the road team in this series to 5-0 ATS. Expect another such victory this evening from defensive dog Atlanta. The Heat are ambling through their schedule, with a recent 2-5 ATS run. In addition, they are just 2-4 ATS on this court of late. Perhaps the motivation of a narrow one game lead in the divisional race with the Hawks will spark them. Or just maybe, Atlanta is far better than expected. The Hawks enter on a 9-1 SU run (losing only to Cleveland!) and are 5-2 SUATS on the road, including a Saturday night win over a quality Memphis team. Credit great play at the guard position, a defense allowing just 93/43, and the leadership of HC Drew, who is now 14-4 ATS as division road dog. To the wire.

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Stephen Nover - Stephen's NBA Top of the Ticket




double-dime bet 703 GSW -4.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 704 CHL
Analysis:
Golden State's 13-7 record is no fluke. The Warriors are much better defensively and on the boards than they've been in a long time. They are playing their best ball right now with a 10-3 mark in their last 13 games.


That record probably is going to take a hit as the Warriors are in the middle ošf a seven-game road trip. So far the Warriors have beaten the Pistons, Nets minus Brook Lopez and Wizards. The Bobcats are easier than the first two road opponents. The Warriors know they can't slip here because their last three road matchups are against Miami, Orlando and Atlanta. That's probably at least two losses.


The timing is right to play Charlotte now. The Bobcats have dropped seven in a row as opponents take them fully serious now. The Bobcats' big people have gone in the tank and their defense has been horrendous surrendering 110 points per game during the losing streak.


David Lee and Stephen Curry are playing at a very high level for Golden State. Lee has never played better, which is saying a lot since he's been a good player for a few years. Curry went to high school in Charlotte and then nearby Davidson college. He is averaging 24.5 points while shooting 50.7 percent from the floor in four lifetime games against the Bobcats.

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Sebastian has 200* New England

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SB Professor
7:30 PM
706. Miami Heat -7 (service play).

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Sebastian Report for Moday:
200 Pats
50 San Antonio
50 Sacramento

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Kelso

50 Units

Texans (+6) over Patriots
8:30 PM -- Gillette Stadium
Houston Texans (11-1) +6 over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-3)
Prediction: Texans by 6-7
Weather: Cloudy with 90% chance of rain, game-time temperatures in low 50s-high 40s and with wind out of the south-southwest at 12 miles per hour.
Starting Time: 8:40
TV: ESPN

Comments: This is a matchup of two teams with the talent to win the Super Bowl, and both come into this game riding six-game win streaks. While for reasons unknown there still are doubters about just how good the Texans are, it is a fact they are 6-0 on the road this season and stand 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with winning records. In breaking the game down, both have outstanding quarterbacks, with New England’s Tom Brady is 19-4 in his last 23 games and Houston’s Matt Schaub 18-4 in his last 22. Both have solid offenses, with Houston having an edge in the ground game with running back Arian Foster just 98 yards short of a third straight 1,200-yard season. The edge on defense must also to Houston, and the Texans know must play defense to win this one. The issue of miserable weather aside, this game presents football at its best and the numbers say Houston will win it straight up, bucking the fact the Patriots are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night games. As an added not for NFL trivia buffs, the combined records of the two teams (20-4) is tied for the best records in Monday night games for teams that have played at least 12 games.
Cloudy with an 80-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.

25 Units

Mavericks (-5½) over Kings
8:30 PM -- American Airlines Center
DALLAS MAVERICKS (10-10) -5 ½ over Sacramento Kings (7-12)
Prediction: Mavericks by 11-12
Starting Time: 8:35
TV: Comcast Sports California, Fox Sports Southwest

Comments: While Sacramento is riding a rare 3-game win streak, history says it won’t mean much tonight when it takes the floor against the Mavericks. Sacramento is 1-20 in its last 21 games against the Mavericks in Dallas and 0-15 in their last 15, with its last win coming there in 2004. History aside, Dallas has been playing excellent basketball with the awakening of O.J. Mayo who is carrying the team in the absence of superstar Dirk Nowitzki, who is still recovering from surgery. Mayo has scored 20 or more points 11 times this season and comes into tonight’s game off a 40-point performance in the Mavericks 116-109 win Saturday in Houston. Everything points to another big Dallas win in this one.

15 Units

Hawks (+7) over Heat
7:30 PM -- AmericanAirlines Arena
Atlanta Hawks (12-5) +7 over MIAMI HEAT (13-5)
Prediction: Hawks by 2-3
Starting Time: 7:35
TV: Sports South, SUN Sports Florida

Comments: This matchup for first place in the NBA Southeast has all the ingredients of being one of the best NBA games of the season thus far. The Hawks arrive in Miami on a 9-1 run and have proved they can win on the road, going 5-2 away from home and winning their last game at Memphis (14-4), 93-83—no small feat. There is no question Miami will come to play but is going to find it tough sledding against a Hawks team that not only can score but that is playing lockdown defense right now. The Hawks are allowing an average of just 93.6 points per game while holding opponents to just 44.9% from the floor. The bottom line: the number is simply too high for a team playing as well as is Atlanta and I do look for the Hawks to win it straight up.

5 Units

Warriors (-4½) over Bobcats
7:00 PM -- Time Warner Cable Arena
Golden State Warriors (13-7) -4 ½ over CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (7-12)
Prediction: Warriors by 9-10
Starting Time: 7:05
TV: Comcast Sports San Francisco Bay Area, Sports South

Comments: I will admit I was skeptical of the so-called rebuilding years in Oakland but the Golden State Warriors have proved me wrong. The Warriors are playing outstanding basketball, have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games and more important than that have shown the one quality that identifies a good team—winning on the road and they are 7-4 when traveling. Golden State arrives in Charlotte standing 3-0 on this road trip, with wins at Washington, 101-97, at Brooklyn, 109-102, and at Detroit, 104-97. Adding to the Warriors’ chances for a 4th straight road win is the fact they are offensively on fire, at the top of their game, and face a Charlotte team that has given up an average of 110.0 points in its last seven games, all losses.

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Lee Earnest

NE Patriots -5.5

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DOC SPORTS

2* Charlotte Bobcats+4.5

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total pleasure from the swami group
nfl record 15-14
TOP PLAY-NEW ENG OVER 51

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big al

nfl new eng