12-15-12

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Dave Essler | CFB Side Sat, 12/15/12 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 201 Nevada 8.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 202 Arizona Analysis: Possibly an upgrade but this is probably the best number we•'ll see. Analysis tonight or tomorrow for sure. Work done on this one.



Dave Essler | CBB Sides Sat, 12/15/12 - 7:00 PM
triple-dime bet 610 Towson 7.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 609 N. Dakota St Analysis: I suppose we could wait and see what this line does, but I‹'ll take my chances that BECAUSE it hasn't gone up, it won't. Seven being the key number, we'll go with it. Yes, this is the same Towson State team that won exactly one game last season. This season, they've already won four, and one of them was at a very decent Vermont team three games ago. Since then, they played AT G-Town and AT Temple and played them close. Were this later in the season, I'd say that those two games would have worn them out. However, being that they were very close games, they'll be motivated and confident coming home. North Dakota State is no doubt the more talented team, but they just played a road game at Minnesota (a game they did cover) but that should take more energy from them than the losses will GIVE Towson State. T-State still struggles a bit with turnovers, but NDSU is not known for creating them, and NDSU is a very big three-point shooting/scoring team, and on the road those are typically teams we like to fade. This game should stay around 120-125 points, which makes more sense to take three possessions. T-State is actually BIGGER and slightly more experienced. This has all the ingredients we need to play the very under valued Towson State Tigers, who have every reason to actually win this game outright.




Dave Essler | CFB Total Sat, 12/15/12 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 201 Nevada / 202 Arizona Over 75.5 BetOnline Analysis: FWIW and for those who just have the CFB Bowl Package, I have played the St. Louis Rams -1.5 3* o“n Sunday. And I have played Towson State +7 3* in CBB on Saturday.




Dave Essler | CFB Side Sat, 12/15/12 - 4:30 PM
triple-dime bet 203 Toledo 10.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 204 Utah St. Analysis: Write up this week. Number probably won't get better than this. If Owens play this should be a gift. They both missed the last regular season game with ankle injuries, but we it not against Akron and meaningless they'd have played, so we are told. One team that's excited to be here in Toledo and one that only lost two games, one to BYU and one to Wisconsin (by two) and they're playing in THIS game. Clearly Toledo has the desire. I do love Utah State, they're well coached. But Keaton has no experience in post-season play, and that's a downer for me. And USU's overall Bowl Record is a mere 1-6. Gary Anderson (USU Coach) has coached in one Bowl Game and lost it.
Toledo is 8-4 in Bo“wl Games, and Matt Campbell took over this time THIS time last year and coached them in Military Bowl game. Before that, he's been to 11 post season games and won seven.
The WAC Conference is ranked higher than the MAC, but not but a ton. USU put up some gaudy defensive numbers, but primarily against fairly weak offenses, really. Three of the last four year this games' been decided by less than then points. The only time it wasn't, and MAC team (UNI) beat a WAC team (Fresno State) badly. Toledo was a ten point dog twice this season and covered both times. USU has been HUGE favorites most of this season. The ONLY time they were favored by anything close to this number was as -12.5 to Colorado State, and they won SU and NOT ATS. Last season they were 10-14 point favorites four time, and covered only once, at Wyoming, where everyone wins.
If Toledo cannot win this game outright, there is little or no chance that USU runs and hides here, and this could well be the first big upset of the Bowl Season.

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Gold Medal Club

CBB

Louisville
Florida
Belmont (10*)

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CBB MAJOR MISMATCH G.O.M.! - Day - Scott Spreitzer

CBB Sides - 4:30 PM
triple-dime bet 550 Oregon -13.5 (-110) vs 549 Nebraska
Analysis: I'm laying the points with Oregon on Saturday. Nebraska's hiring of Tim Miles as basketball coach was an absolute steal! But Miles has a way to go before he brings in "his" team. As it is, Nebraska has overachieved to get to 6-2, but their weaknesses (including a lack of true scorers) were exposed in a 64-42 loss to Creighton. This isn't a deep team and they're banged-up on Saturday. Starting PG Benny Parker (MCL sprain) is questionable - and not nearly 100% healthy if he does play. Guard Shavon Shields is also questionable (elbow), while Mike Peltz is expected to play, despite an injured knee. If Parker is unable to play...or if he's limited, Peltz will likely have to play the point - and the junior guard has made just one FG this season! The backcourt, especially at the point, may be paper-thin in this one and I'd have laid the points against a healthy Husker team. Oregon is loaded and Dana Altman's squad is averaging 79.4 ppg (27th in the NCAA). The Ducks average 73 possessions per game to Nebraska's 60. Oregon's backcourt should have no trouble controlling what should be an uptempo sty†le of basketball. Oregon is 28th in the nation making over 48% of their shots. They also own a +13 rebound margin per game average. Nebraska only allows 59.2 ppg, but it's because of the tempo they have to play rather than stingy defense. The fact is, Nebraska ranks 209th in FG percentage allowed and 317th defending the trey. The Huskers are on a 1-6 ATS slide on the road and they've covered just 5 of their last 17, overall. Meanwhile, Oregon enters on a 19-7 ATS run overall, and they're on a 12-2 ATS run off a cover. I'm laying the points with Oregon, my Major Mismatch on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Saturday Bowls

3* = UTAH STATE
2* = "OVER" on ARIZONA/NEVADA

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Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Toledo +10.5 over Utah State: Im gonna go with Toledo in this one. The Utah State defense has been pretty awesome this year, but they only played 2 good offenses and allowed 41 points to La Tech and 27 points to San Jose State, which were the only 2 times they allowed over 20 points on the year. Today they will faced a Toledo offense that has put up some big numbers this year, averaging 456.1 ypg and 32.9 ppg. Toledo didn’t have start QB Owens or top RB Fluellen in their last game, but both are expected back in this one and they are the two parts that really make this offense go. I know that the Toledo defense has been pretty weak this year, but because of their offense they were still able to go 9-3 on the year with all 3 losses being by just 7 points each. I look for that offense to keep them close once again. 2 POWER ANGLES FOR THIS PLAY--- MAC teams that were .666 or better on the year are 11-1 SU and 10-1 ATS if they are off a win… Bowl favorites of > 3 points off DD win are 4-16 ATS if they are returning to same bowl game they lost at the year before.

7 POINT TEASER --- Nevada +16 & Toledo/ Utah State Under 65.5

2 UNIT PLAY

Nevada/ Arizona Over 78.5

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BEST COLLEGE BOWL TOTAL THIS YEAR - Greg Shaker


Greg Shaker | CFB Total Sat, 12/29/12 - 6:45 PM
triple-dime bet 235 Oregon St. / 236 Texas OVER 57.0
Analysis:
This is by far my Favorite College Bowl Totals Play for this year and my number far exceeds what Oddsmakers have put up here. This game in San Antonio is likely to enjoy good playing conditions and we do have 2 teams that can score points, and fast I might have. There are a number of gamebreakers on both offensive squads and in the case with Texas, they will employ as often as they can a hurry-up offense. The Longhorns have not had their usual success this year due to a defense that is very sub-par for them. They have yielded 42, 50, 63, 48, 36, and 31 in 6 of the 12 games they have played and the likelihood of them yeilding at least 30 to Oregon State is very good. Texas has thrived on teams that are marginal on D and the Beavers have proven that they can give up points in chunks. I have 63.4 for this contest and frankly I think that this is one that should win for us without an sweat at all..

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4_SEASONS Power Play of the Day
GONZAGA -9.5
UTAH JAZZ -2
5-1 L10 Days

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Hoopsgooroo 12/15
202 Arizona -9 @ 1p
203 Toledo +10.5 @ 4:30p

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Paul Leiner

100* Bulls / Nets Over 184.5

100* Creighton -2

100* Utah State -10.5

50* Nevada +9.5

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Kelso

New Mexico Bowl

10 Units

Arizona (-9) over Nevada

1:00 PM -- Gildan New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium, Albuq

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Arizona (7-5) -9 over Nevada (7-5)
Prediction: Arizona by 14-17
Played in Albuquerque, New Mexico
Played at University Stadium (38,000) Grass
Weather: Cloudy, chance of light snow, game-time temperature in high 30s to low 40s, wind out of the southeast at 12 miles per hour.
Starting Time: 1:05
TV: ESPN

Comments: Nevada is a university located off the main football roads of the country and traditionally produces powerful teams that usually ambush a major opponent or two each season. Unfortunately for the Wolfpack, this is a major rebuilding year and the team ran out of gas at the mid-way points of the season. After opening 6-1 against teams that made up a very soft schedule—California (3-9), South Florida (3-9) I-AA Northwestern State (4-7), Hawaii (3-9), Texas State (4-8), Wyoming (4-8) and UNLV (2-9)—Nevada has gone 1-4, with its only win in those five games, a 31-24, victory over New Mexico (4-9). There is not a single edge Arizona does not have in this game and the Wildcats should get it done.

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 10-15 m.p.h. (University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM) Game-time temperature: Near 40.


Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

50 Units

Utah State (-10½) over Toledo

4:30 PM --

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Utah State (10-2) -10 ½ over Toledo (9-3)
Prediction: Utah State by 17-21
Played in Boise, Idaho
Played at Bronco Stadium (30,000) Artificial Turf
Weather: Cloudy with light rain, game-time temperature in mid-to-high 30s and with no appreciable wind.
Starting Time: 4:35
TV: ESPN

Comments: Both teams deserve a lot of respect from those who appreciate good football and I am certain both will bring their “A” games for this one. That said, the edge for a dominating win has to go to Utah State—a team that is nothing like the college whipping boy squads of the past who played an outrageously strong non-conference schedule just to make money. Fourth-year coach Gary Anderson has methodically built the Aggies into a big-time football team, something illustrated by the fact its two losses this season came at Rose Bowl-bound Wisconsin, 16-14, when it missed a last-second field goal, and at Poinsettia Bowl participate BYU, 6-3. In other words Utah State came with five points of going 12-0. Both teams have outstanding quarterbacks and outstanding running backs but Utah State has a dramatically superior defense—one that plays in lockdown fashion and is ranked 8th of 124 NCAA teams against the score, giving up just 15.4 points per game, and 15th in total defense, surrendering 322.y yards per game. The bottom line: Utah State can stop Toledo’s high-octane offense but the Rockets do not appear to have the weapons to slowdown the Aggies.

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. (Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID) Game-time temperature: Near 40.


Best Bets Club Basketball

10 Units

Indiana (-11½) over Butler

2:00 PM -- Bankers Life Fieldhnouse - Indianapolis, IN

Indiana (9-0) -11 ½ over Butler (7-2)
Prediction: Indiana by 16-17
Played in Indianapolis on neutral floor at Bankers Life Fieldhouse (18,165)
Starting Time: 2:05
TV: CBS

Comments: The best team in college basketball just got better and that spells even more trouble for a talented Butler team. I noted earlier in the season Indiana may well be the best college basketball team I have seen in decades and nothing has happened to change my mind, Even though the Hoosiers have opened 9-0 and have won those games by an average of 31.7 points per game, they have been doing it short-handed after the NCAA suspended two blue-chip, ready-to-play freshmen for the first nine games. The two freshmen—6-8 forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea and 7-0 center Peter Jurkin—will be in uniform today and will play. Mosquera-Perea, a native of Columbia played last season at La Lumiere School in LaPorte, Indiana, and graduated as the 9th best power forward in the country. Jurkin, from Juba, South Sudan, Africa, played last season at United Faith Christian Academy in North Carolina, where he averaged 14.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. None of these means Butler will not bring it’s “A” game but Indiana has too much blue-chip talent, is too athletic, too quick and too fast for Butler. The Bulldogs have signature wins at Northwestern, 74-65, over North Carolina, 82-71, and Marquette, 72-71, on a neutral floor. The only common opponent they have faced this season is North Carolina, which Indiana beat by 24 points, 83-59, in Bloomington. The figures say Indiana is the real deal and simply has too much talent and a dramatically superior defense for Butler to handle.



Best Bets Club Basketball

10 Units

Kansas State (+9½) over Gonzaga

9:00 PM -- Key Arena - Seattle, WA

Kansas State (7-1) +9 ½ over Gonzaga (9-1)
Prediction: Gonzaga by 3-4
Played in Seattle on neutral floor at Key Arena (14,538)
Starting Time: 9:05
TV: ESPN2

Comments: Gonzaga comes into this game in major bounce-back form, having lost its last game to undefeated Illinois, 85-74, on its home court in Spokane. It was but the eighth loss the Bulldogs have suffered there in the past eight years. Despite being in the bounce-back mode, Gonzaga leaves its comfort zone and meets a talented Kansas State team that has lost only at undefeated Michigan, 71-57, on a neutral site in Seattle. That makes the 9 ½ a big number that favors Kansas State. This one boils down to one element—an outstanding offense facing at outstanding defense. Gonzaga leads the nation in field-goal shooting percentages (52.7), sixth in rebound margin (+11.8), eighth in scoring margin (21.3) and 10th in scoring offense (82.7). Kansas State brings the defense, ranked second nationally in 3-point field goal percentage (22.2) 13th in scoring defense (54.6), 15th in rebound margin (+10.4) and 32nd in field goal percentage defense (37.4). When two good teams meet on a neutral floor, defense prevails and I do believe that will be the case here.



Best Bets Club Basketball

10 Units

Florida (-2½) over Arizona

10:00 PM -- McKale Center

Florida (7-0) -2 ½ over ARIZONA (7-0)
Prediction: Florida by 6-7
Played in Tucson a McKale Center (14,538)
Starting Time: 10:05
TV: ESPN

Comments: There was never any question Florida would again field a formidable team but until now we did not know just how good the Gators would be. Now, we know. The Gators went to Tallahassee in their last game and absolutely destroyed a good Florida State team, 72-47, and that win speaks loudly to just how good this team is. Florida will definitely have its hands full in Tucson tonight but should get the job done on the strength of the nation’s second best defense—one that gives up just 48.3 points per game—while limiting teams to a shooting percentage of 34.9 (8th best). It is of note Florida has thus far played what the NCAA’s RPI ratings say is the 23rd toughest schedule in the country, also beating the likes of Marquette, 82-49, Middle Tennessee, 66-45, and Wisconsin, 74-56. My figures say Arizona is good enough, but not quite up to beating the Gators, even while playing on their home court in Tucson.

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The Goldsheet

★ ★ ★ ★KEY RELEASES ★ ★ ★ ★
NBA- MINNESOTA by 16 over Dallas (Saturday, Dec. 15)
NCAAB- OKLAHOMA by 12 over Texas A&M (Sat., Dec. 15, Day)
NCAAB- MICHIGAN by 18 over West Virginia (Sat., Dec. 15)



★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★★ ★ ★ ★


Goldsheet Confidential Tip Off

SAN FRANCISCO at *Nevada (Day)...CTO sources report USF suffered the dreaded "hangover effect" in 67-59 setback at Pacific last
Saturday following draining 81-65 victory vs. St. John's. Look for Dons' potent UCLA transfer 6-6 G De'End Parker (17.9 ppg) to regain
his groove after hitting a meager 2 of 10 FGs vs. Tigers. And note, Nevada just 1-5 as chalk TY (thru Dec. 10), while Rex Walters' crew
is profitable 14-3 vs. spread last 17-reg.-season games. Minor upset possible.
SAN FRANCISCO 73 - *Nevada 69 RATING - 11

VALPARAISO over *Missouri State...Since smallish, scatter-shooting Missouri State (only 37.9% FGs) still seeking its first win vs. a
Division I foe, suggest laying small number with veteran, usually-disciplined Valpo squad eager to get back on track following mistake-filled
(23 TOs) 65-51 setback at New Mexico. Also, count on difference-making performance from Crusaders' All-Horizon League 6-8 sr. F
Kevin Van Wijk, who scored only 7 pts. after early exit (fouled out in 20 mins.) vs. Lobos.
VALPARAISO 74 - *Missouri State 62 RATING -10

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RAINMAN
NCAAF
ARIZONA
ARIZONA UNDER 79
Utah State -10
Utah State over 58

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ATS LOCK

Utah State -10

Hoops
527-6 Wright State
565-5 Akron
555-4 Iowa St.

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Best Weekend wagers with Weekend Warrior December 15, 2012

NCAA Basketball

Arizona State -14

Creighton -1

Elon +8

NCAA Football

Toledo/Utah State OVER 58½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry's Bowl Kicoff Knockout (6-2 s/Nov 30)


Nevada at Arizona Wildcats Dec 15 2012 1:00PM


My 9* Bowl Kickoff Knockout is on Nevada at 1:00 ET.


Nevada was 6-1 after seven games (lone loss was 32-31 to USF when the Wolf Pack allowed TD passes of 52 and 56 yards in the final 2:37 of the game) but after a thrilling comeback win over UNLV (Nevada trailed 31-14 but won, 42-37), the team would lose FOUR of its final five games. Arizona got as high as No. 22 in the AP poll after opening 3-0, which included a 59-38 victory over then-No. 18 Oklahoma State on Sep 8. However, the Wildcats were quickly brought back to earth with a 49-0 loss at third-ranked Oregon in their fourth game. An 0-3 start in Pac-12 play quickly put a damper on the season and a season-ending 41-34 home loss to Arizona St left the Wildcats with the same record as Nevada, at 7-5. Nevada’s Chris Ault owns 233 wins (the most of any active coach with one team) and is taking the Wolf Pack to their EIGHTH straight bowl game. Wining one would be nice, as Nevada is a disappointing 2-5 in its last seven bowl trips (1-5-1 ATS). Nevada is 11th in total offense (502.8 YPG) and 20th in scoring offense (37.0 PPG) with arguably CFB’s most-balanced attack. Nevada is the only team in the country that is averaging more than 240 yards per game both on the ground (260.0 YPG on 5.2 YPC and 38 TDs) and through the air (242.8 YPG) with most of the credit going to QB Cody Fajardo, who has carried on the tradition of Ault's Pistol Offense. Fajardo, despite missing some time with an injury, has thrown for 2,530 yards (66.7% completions) with 17 TDs and just seven INTs. He’s added 981 rushing yards (5.8 YPC and 11 TDs), nicely complementing RB Stefphon Jefferson. Jefferson has 1,703 yards (5.0 YPC / 22 TDs), ranking second in the nation with 141.9 YPG. Fajardo and Jefferson will take on an Arizona defense which ranks 116th in yards allowed (485.7 YPG) and 101st in points allowed (34.3 PPG). Nevada’s defense isn’t much better, allowing 32.5 PPG on 431.2 YPG but in this anticipated shootout, taking the points is the much safer option. Matt Scott adapted well to Rich Rod’s offense, throwing for 3.238 yards (60.4% completions) with 24 TDs and 12 INTs. He added 485 yards rushing (4.5 YPC / 5 TDs), as Arizona sophomore RB Ka'Deem Carey ran for 1,757 rushing yards (already a single-season school record) on 6.4 YPC with 20 TDs (ranks 1st with 146.4 YPG). WR Austin Hill has 73 catches for 16.3 YPC with nine TDs. I mentioned Nevada’s recent poor ATS play the last seven bowls but note that the under dog is 5-1-1 ATS in those previous seven bowl performances. It shouldn’t go unnoticed that Nevada was 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season but 2-1 ATS as a dog, including a PERFECT 2-0 when getting a TD or more. Both schools had designs on a much better bowl game awhile back, so this does not seem like the place to lay points.


Good luck...Larry


Prediction: Nevada








Marc Lawrence 26-0 ATS New Mexico Bowl Blowout!


Nevada at Arizona Wildcats Dec 15 2012 1:00PM


Play On: Nevada (Game 201) Note: For the seventh straight year, the NCAA kicks off its bowl season in New Mexico. And with it, courtesy of our 2012 College Bowl Stat Report we find PAC 10/12 bowl squads 1-10 ATS as favorites of four or more points versus a foe off a SU loss. Add to that the fact that the Wildcats were just 2-5 SU against winning opposition this season. Meanwhile, 'Zona head coach Rich Rodriguez checks in at 4-14 ATS off a SU favorite loss, and an unprepared 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in post-season play. On the flip side the Wolf Pack is 3-0 ATS when they arrive with a winning record against PAC 10/12 foes, and MWC bowlers 7-2 ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss. Our database cement it though with this powerful winning angle, noting that sub .750 bowl favorites of eight or more points are 14-42-4 ATS since 1980 versus a foe with a winning record since 1980, including 0-26-4 ATS if they failed to beat the spread by 10 or more points in their last game and won 9 or fewer games last season, provided they allow 16 or more PPG on the season and are not off a loss of 30 or more points. Grab the points with the better coach here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on Nevada. Thank you and good luck as always. Don't make a move on Saturday's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl until you learn of a pair awesome angles inside the game from Marc's database that are each 100% ATS perfect. Best of all yours - if you act now!


Prediction: Nevada


Bet Type: SPREAD




Fargo's 10* NEW MEXICO BOWL (PERFECT 6-0 CFB RUN)
Nevada at Arizona Wildcats Dec 15 2012 1:00PM


I won with Nevada in its final game of the regular season against Boise St. and while it was an outright loss for the Wolf Pack, that should help as a motivator heading into their bowl game. This is definitely not the bowl game the Wolf Pack were hoping for but playing against a BCS Conference team should have it motivated along with the fact the 16 seniors want to go out winners. A slow end to the season will steer many away from Nevada but this is the time to jump on as line value is at its peak. Arizona did not exactly end the regular season very strong as it lost to rival Arizona St. at home. The Wildcats won the yardage battle 522-460 but four turnovers did them in. They are not thrilled about being here as they were hoping for a Sun Bowl or a Las Vegas Bowl bid so motivation, or a lack there of, could play a big factor here. Making things tougher is that there is a quick turnaround with it being the first bowl game and it happens to come right at the end of finals week. Both teams come in with very potent offenses and defenses that have struggled. Nevada is 11th in total offense and 20th in scoring offense and it is a very balanced attack. The Wolf Pack were one of the top rushing teams in the nation as they averaged 262 ypg which is seventh in the nation. The passing game was fairly efficient as well as Nevada is 30th in passing efficiency while quarterback Cody Fajardo is 11th in the nation in total offense so there should be no stopping this unit. Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the country as it is 116th in total defense and 100th in scoring defense and it has been equally bad at stopping the run and the pass so facing a balanced attack is a nightmare scenario. The Wildcats do bring in a stronger offense but Nevada possesses a stronger defense as well so while the offenses have the advantages on both sides, the Wolf Pack have the edge overall as the line is in favor of the underdog when matchups like this take place. Nevada was horrible in the role of favorite this season, going 1-8 ATS but it went a perfect 2-0 ATS as underdogs of a touchdown or more. Arizona meanwhile is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game and this is not a good price as it is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. Also, the Wildcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Motivation plays a key role in this one. 10* (201) Nevada Wolf Pack


Prediction: Nevada


Bet Type: SPREAD






Fargo's FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL (PERFECT 6-0 RUN)
Toledo at Utah St. Dec 15 2012 4:30PM


Utah St. went 10-2 and that could have been even better. The Aggies lost at Wisconsin by two points and at BYU by three points while every victory was by at least a touchdown. They come in riding a six-game winning streak so they have plenty of momentum and with the short turnaround from the final game to the bowl game, that momentum should not be lost. Utah St. has a rather large intangible on its side as it played in this bowl last year and lost to Ohio in the final seconds so it will be out to make up for that. After an eight-game winning streak, the Rockets moved into the top 25 but it was short-lived as they lost to Ball St. at home followed by another loss at Northern Illinois. Toledo closed the season with an unimpressive win over 1-11 Akron so it isn't exactly entering the postseason on a high note. The Rockets were picked as preseason MAC favorites so going from a possible championship to playing a bowl game in Idaho may be a bit of a downer. The Rockets possess an offense that is potent but a defense that is suspect. The Aggies are one of the hotter teams in the country not many people may know about as they have won 15 of their last 18 games going back to last season. They do it with both offense and defense as Utah St. has scored 38 or more points in six straight games while scoring 31 or more points in 9 of 12 on the season. They will go up against a Toledo defense that is ranked 105th in total defense and should show little resistance. The Rockets have allowed an average of 30.4 ppg over their last seven games. The Rockets get it done with offense as they are 28th overall and 39th in scoring but the numbers have slipped recently. They have gone over 500 total yards just once in their last five games after doing so three times in their first seven games. This is where we have the real advantage as Utah St. is ranked 15th overall and eighth in scoring and it will be out to prove that this year was no fluke. The Aggies have allowed single digits in scoring in four of their last seven games. Utah St. is 6-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points this season while going 14-4 ATS in its 18 non-conference game under head coach Gary Andersen. Also, the Aggies are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Rockets meanwhile are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. This will be one of the best defenses they have seen all season and it will show come Saturday. 9* (204) Utah St. Aggies


Prediction: Utah St.


Bet Type: SPREAD



Marc's Double Perfect ATS Potato Bowl Super Play!
Toledo at Utah St. Dec 15 2012 4:30PM


Play On: Toledo (Game 203) Note: Yes we realize the Aggies are the ATS kings of college football this season (9-1-1 ATS with their lone loss as 37-point chalk in a 36-point season-finale victory over Idaho). However, once again direct from the 2012 College Bowl Stat Report: bowl favorites of more than three points off a double-digit SU win are 4-16 ATS since 1980 when returning to the same bowl game they lost the previous campaign, including 0-13 ATS if they are a winning team who allows 15.4 or more PPG on the season. Add to that, the fact that WAC bowl favorites are just 8-11 SU and 4-15 ATS since 2000 and you can begin to see why a ‘Potato Bowl’ famine may continue to hit the moneymaking Aggies. Meanwhile, Matt Campbell’s Rockets are 5-0 ATS as dogs under their rookie head coach and topped Air Force in last year’s Military bowl – a game Campbell coached after taking over for the departed Tim Beckman. We’re also very familiar with the fact that the MAC is 11-5 ATS this season as non-conference dogs of 17 or less points. We recommend a 3-unit play on Toledo. Thank you and good lucks as always.


Prediction: Toledo


Bet Type: SPREAD