12-15-12

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Betting as a Business 12/15
NCAAF: 12/15


New Mexico Bowl


Nevada +8.5 / Arizona 1:00 ET


NCAAB: 12/15

#542 Memphis +4 / Louisville 2:30 ET

#553 UC Davis +19 / Stanford 5:00 ET

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Bio Sports Picks CBB 12/15


Memphis +3.5
Georgia -2
Wisc. Milw. -1
Montana -2
S. Diego +15

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Handicapper: Doc Sports
Florida vs. Arizona (NCAAB) - 10:00 PM EST Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-108 Arizona
At Pinnacle
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
6 UnitPlay. #586 Take Arizona over Florida (10 pm ESPN) The Gators generally do not leave the state of Florida during their non-conference portion of the season and they will be in for a big shock tonight at the McKale Center in Tucson, AZ. Both teams are undefeated, but Arizona has played a more challenging schedule thus far with road games at Texas Tech and Clemson (won both of those by double digits). The Wildcats have great depth with nine players averaging 10 minutes or more and that will be a key in this game as they will wear down the Gators. Arizona nearly beat a much better Florida team last season in Gainesville but lost in overtime with some questionable calls. That will not happen tonight in Tucson, as the Wildcats should get the benefit of some close calls down the stretch. Florida lost two key players from last year’s Elite Eight squad and this group of players has a tendency to choke down the stretch in close games. Arizona is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Cats get it done tonight and we collect big in the process as well.

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Sam Martin's 20* NBA "VEGAS INFERNO" WINNER (17-7)


Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks Dec 15 2012 8:35PM


20* Play on LA Clippers. Two streaking teams meet up in Milwaukee tonight with the Clippers coming in on an eight-game winning streak while the Bucks have won four straight. We'll back the road side tonight to win comfortably, noting Milwaukee's poor shooting over the last few weeks as well as playing without rest and with travel from their four-point win in Cleveland last night.


The Bucks have been winning with defense combined with a weaker schedule, as their four-game winning run has come despite three of those games seeing the Bucks shoot 40%, 40%, and 41% from the floor. And going back further, Milwaukee has shot under 42% in five of their last six games overall.


That presents an unfavorable matchup for the home team in this contest against the Clippers, who have not only held five straight foes to under 100 points scored, but who are also on fire offensively, reaching triple-digits on the scoreboard in seven of their last eight games overall. Add in Milwaukee's 5-17 ATS mark at home after a road win and 1-9 ATS record at home after playing as a road favorite, and we look for the tired Bucks to have a tough time stopping the Clippers scoring efforts, and an even tougher time trying to match them on the scoreboard! 20* Play on LA Clippers.


Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers






Rickenbach MASSIVE NBA *OVER EASY* Saturday!


Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks Dec 15 2012 7:35PM


Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA *8* (Regular Play) OVER in Cleveland at New York @ 7:35 ET - The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to New York to take on the Knicks on Saturday night. Cleveland is 5-18 SU overall this year while New York comes in with a 17-5 SU overall record on the season. Cleveland is allowing 101 points per game on the road this year. New York is scoring 103.2 points per game overall this year and 106.6 points per game at home this season. The Over is 5-1 this year for New York after a non-conference game. The Over is 5-1 this year for New York when they play poor defensive teams allowing 99 points per game or more. The Over is 5-0 last 5 games when New York plays at home. The Over is 6-1-1 last 8 games overall for New York. The Over is 7-3 last 10 meetings overall in this series and the Over is 8-2 last 10 meetings in New York. Lots of scoring here tonight in this one. Play OVER in New York as a *8* Regular Play selection Saturday.


Prediction: over




Team Del Genio 10* Division Game of the Month


Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons Dec 15 2012 7:35PM


Play on Detroit at 7:35 ET. Love the Pistons as a home dog in this spot despite last night's results. Both teams played Friday. While Indiana beat Philadelphia 95-85, Detroit dropped a heartbreaker in Brooklyn, 107-105, losing on a Joe Johnson three-pointer at the buzzer in double overtime. Truth be told, it was a brutal loss for the Pistons as they first put on a frantic third-quarter rally, outscoring the Nets 30-14 only to blow a six-point lead in the final 90 seconds of regulation. It was the team's third straight loss as well as their seventh in the last nine games. After winning five straight here at The Palace, they have now dropped three in a row. But we see them bouncing back here. While Indiana has beaten Detroit 10 of 13 meetings, all three losses came here in the Motor City. The Pacers have not won three consecutive games all season, nor have they covered three straight games all year. Not only are they 18-38 ATS off a home win, but they are 15-32 ATS on the road after BB DD wins. They are also 10-27 ATS the L3 seasons when off BB ATS wins. They average just 87.4 PPG on the road as they continue to struggle to score w/out leading scorer Danny Granger. Paul George has filled in nicely - at times - but is erratic and inconsistent. Detroit is our 10* Central Division Game of the Month.


Prediction: Detroit Pistons






Larry's 108 29-Club Play (2nd TY / 1-0)


Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls Dec 15 2012 8:05PM


My 10* 29-Club Play is on the Chi Bulls at 8:05 ET.


The Brooklyn Nets, won their second straight game following a five-game slide last night, but it took two OTs vs a Detroit team which came in just 2-11 SU on the road this season (now 2-12). Center Brook Lopez (17.9-6.6) returned to the court last night after missing seven games with a sprained right foot. He played 24 minutes with nine points and four rebounds (made just 4-of-10 shots). Johnson (16.9-2.9-3.7) and Williams (16.7-8.4 APG) form an outstanding backcourt and the Nets own excellent depth up front with Blatche (12.1-6.4), Wallace (11.6-5.4) and Humphries (7.4-7.4). However, there is little rest for these weary Nets, who must travel to Chicago right after last night’s two-OT thriller, to play the rested Bulls (last played on Wednesday). Of course, Chicago is still without Derrick Rose but the team is getting quite a spark from Marco Belinelli, who has started five straight games in the backcourt, averaging 19.0 PPG with the Bulls going 4-1. With Hamilton still out, Hinrich (6.2-5.5 APG) and the ageless Nate Robinson (11.0-3.6 APG) are the other main contributors on the perimeter. Chicago’s frontline is familiar and formidable. Deng (17.9-7.3) and Boozer (14.0-9.7) are the forwards plus Noah (13.9-10.6-4.3) is one of the NBA’s most versatile centers. As always, Tom Thibodeau’s team can play some defense, as Chicago ranks third in the league in points allowed (91.3 per) and opponents' field-goal percentage (42.7), while leading the NBA in opponents' three-point field-goal percentage (31.1). Chicago has allowed 88.2 PPG while holding opponents to 41.4 percent from the floor in winning SEVEN of 10 to get to 12-9 The Bulls have won EIGHT of last 10 meetings with the Nets at the United Center and make it NINE of 11 with an easy win right here!


Good luck...Larry


Prediction: Chicago Bulls






Ryan’s NBA 25* TOP RATED Titan; 14-5 ATS run


Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks Dec 15 2012 8:35PM


25* graded play on the Milwaukee Bucks as they take on the LA Clippers set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Milwaukee will lose this game by five or fewer points. In this situation, and like Toronto last night, I like playing a combination wager using a 20* amount on the line adna a 5* amount on the Money Line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS mark for 76% winners. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that is a solid offensive team scoring between 98 and 102 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 92 to 98 PPG and after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Clips have done well against strong ball handling teams like the Bucks. They are just 13-29 ATS in road games when facing good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers per game over the last 3 seasons. Situationally, the Clips are just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is fourth in the NBA posting a 1.622 assists to turnover ratio, seventh averaging 22.7 assists per game, and fourth committing just 14.0 turnovers per game. The Clippers thrive on defensive pressure, but the Bucks have the personnel and ball handlers to negate this aspect of the Clippers game. Take the Bucks.


Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks






SCOTT SPREITZER'S VALUE SHOCKER G.O.M.! 40-22 Run!


Orlando Magic at Charlotte Bobcats Dec 15 2012 7:35PM


I'm backing the Charlotte Bobcats on Saturday night. The Bobcats are on a 10-game losing streak, but we have known when to step-in and when to leave them alone, going 2-0 ATS playing ON Charlotte. We had the Bobs when they covered against Atlanta in a 94-91 loss (+9) on November 28, and we cashed again on December 5 when the Bobcats covered as a 7 1/2 point dog in a 100-98 loss to New York. I believe this number puts a lot of value on the home team. My power ratings actually have the Knicks 10.5 points better than Orlando on a neutral court. The Knicks were a 7 1/2 point fave in Charlotte...and after early movement, the Magic are laying as much as 1 1/2 points in Charlotte (at the time of this post), only 6 points less. I firmly believe the Bobcats, despite their losing streak, are the team that would be favored on Saturday if lines were based on power ratings rather than perception. And let's not fail to mention Charlotte's schedule over the last 10 games. Seven of the 10 losses came against Atlanta (twice), the Clippers, the Warriors, the Spurs, the Knicks, and Oklahoma City. Those teams (including ATL twice) own a combined 113-41 winning mark. That's .737 winning basketball. Five of those six teams are in first place in their respective divisions, while Golden State is second in the Pacific. You get the picture. A game against Orlando is a definite step down in level of competition. The Magic caught GST at the right time last night...off the Warriors win over Miami. Orlando is 27th in scoring and 26th from area code three. And they're on a 5-11 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record. I'm betting the Charlotte streak ends here before they head out on a west coast road trip. I'm playing Charlotte on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.


Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats


Bet Type: SPREAD




Burns' NBA PERSONAL FAVORITE! ~ 8-1 L9 ~ BLOWOUT!


Washington Wizards at Miami Heat Dec 15 2012 7:35PM


I'm playing on MIAMI. While I've successfully played on the Wizards this month, I believe that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Heat, who had the last two nights off, should be in a foul mood. Not only did they lose on Wednesday (at the buzzer vs. Golden State) but they also were recently upset by these same Wizards. In fact, they've now lost three in a row in this series, since last season. (James didn't play those two from last year though, as he was resting for the playoffs.) Speaking of James, who had an ice pack on his shoulder after the last game, noted: "I'll be ready by Saturday. That's all that matters.'' While the Heat are well-rested, the same cannot be said of the Wizards. They're off a hard-fought loss vs. the Lakers last night. While they've covered in some of those games, note that they're 0-4 SU and 8-37 SU the last 45 times that they played the second of b2b games. This is worse than a "typical" back-to-back spot though. That's because the Wizards are also now playing their fourth game in the past five days. Only 2-2 on the current homestand coach Erik Spoelstra wants his team to take care of business: "It's an inordinate amount of time that we spend here at home and we should be able to take advantage of that. We haven't done it quite the way we've liked to so we'll move onto the next game." As long as the Heat show up ready to play - and I believe they will - this one has all the makings of a mismatch. *9 Personal Favorite


Prediction: Miami Heat

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Alatex
20* cbb Alabama+6

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Accuscore

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Toledo vs. Utah State

The Utah State Aggies (10-2) and Toledo Rockets (9-3) look to finish the season on the right note this weekend as they get set to face off in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Saturday in Boise. We got a MAC-WAC match-up, and both teams are hoping their high-powered offenses will be firing on all cylinders. Utah State is searching for its first postseason win in 19 years while Toledo is looking for its first 10-win season in over a decade. This is the first ever meeting between the teams.

The Aggies are 66.4 percent favorites over the Rockets with an average score of 35-28. Toledo, however, is the much safer bet when looking at the spread. Utah State covers the -10 spread just 43 percent of the time. These two teams like to score and score often; there is a 58 percent chance the total goes over the posted line of 58.5 points.



AccuScore’s award winning computer has picks against the spread, on totals, and on the money line for every bowl game, including the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl... All Bowl Picks.

This is the second bowl appearance in a row for Utah State, and eighth overall. The Aggies lost to Ohio 24-23 last year in this same bowl. Coming off the most successful regular season in school history, Utah State fans are hoping this year ends with a win. Utah State stormed through the WAC this year, going an impressive 6-0 in conference play. They got an early season rivalry win over Utah, but lost later on to Wisconsin and BYU. After that BYU loss in early October however, the Aggies won six in a row including a season-defining win at ranked Louisiana Tech.

Utah State’s potent offense is led by sophomore quarterback Chuckie Keeton who has thrown for 27 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on a 68 percent completion rate. He is also the second leading rusher for the Aggies behind running back Kerwynn Williams who has 1,277 yards with 12 touchdowns on 200 carries. Williams is also a threat to catch passes with 43 receptions for 663 yards and another 5 scores. Keeton has 120 carries for 527 yards and 7 TDs. Running back Joe Hill has 243 rushing yards along with 10 catches for another 183 yards and 8 total touchdowns. Receiver Matt Austin has 42 catches, 652 yards and 5 touchdowns. Utah State averaged 461 yards of offense this season (267.8 passing yards and 192.8 rushing yards), and allowed just 323 yards defensively, holding eight of their opponents to 17 points or less.

Keeton is projected to throw for 225 yards, 2 TDs with a passer rating of 163.5. Williams is projected to carry it 15 times for 96 yards and a TD. He’s also projected to receive it three times for 37 yards. Austin is projected to get 42 yards on 3 catches. The defense is projected to get nearly two sacks, and has a high probability of forcing either a fumble or an interception. Utah State’s defense is top 15 nationally in total defense, against the rush, and in points allowed. The unit has yet to allow a TD in the first quarter.

Toledo’s season began with the hope that they would contend in the MAC’s West Division. Unfortunately, two late losses put them at 6-2 and tied for second place. The Rockets ended their regular season with a 35-23 win over Akron. All that matters now is that a win which would give the program its first double-digit victory season since 2001.

The Rockets are averaging 456.1 yards per game on offense (258.9 passing yards and 197.2 rushing yards). On defense they are allowing 463.2 yards per game (295.2 passing yards and 168.1 rushing yards).

The offense is led by quarterback Terrance Owens who has thrown for 2,677 yards (62.8 percent completion rate) with 14 TDS and 8 INTS. He also has 91 carries for 385 yards and 5 TDs. He is currently listed as probable for the game. Running back David Fluellen has 252 carries, 1,460 yards and 13 TDS, along with 32 catches for 246 yards. Receiver Bernard Reedy has 82 catches, 1,051 yards and 6 touchdowns. Reedy has also returned two kickoffs and a punt for scores totaling nearly 2,000 all-purpose yards for the season.

Owens is projected to throw for 220 yards and 2 TDs with a passer rating of 129.1. Fluellen is projected to rush 22 times for 115 yards. Reedy is projected to catch it five to six times for 67 yards. Toledo’s defense has a lower probability to get multiple sacks compared to Utah State’s defense, but an equal chance at forcing a turnover.

Via ESPN.com, Toledo has given up an average of 30.4 points over their last seven games. That’s just not going to get it done, especially when they’re not only facing a strong offense, but also a nationally ranked defense. I would like Toledo’s chances more if Owens and Fluellen are fully healthy. Giving Toledo 10 points though is a bit much. Aggies take it 31-24.

The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is Saturday afternoon (4:30 pm ET, ESPN).

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VEGAS RUNNER

Santa Clara 1.5 (-110) bodog vs 578 Pacific

**** CBB 3* TRUE STEAM GAME OF THE MONTH BOMB ****

S CLARA +1.5....(3*)



UFC TUF FINALE PREMIUM PLAYS :

1.) M GUILLARD -135....(2*)

2.) D POIRIERS -245....(2*)

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Inside Edge : 3*Utah St.

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NEVERWIN SPORTS
20units Utah St. -10 1/2 CFB
20units Miami Heat -15 NBA
20units Brooklyn +5 1/2 NBA
20units Golden St. +6 1/2 NBA
20units Dayton -17 1/2 CBB

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Inside Sports Report

5* Louisville

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PhillyGodfather


NFL BILLS 500: +6
CBB Georgia Southern: +17
CBB Rhode Island 500: +1
CBB Wilmington 500: +16.5
CBB Irvine 500: +7.5
NFL BEARS 500: +3
NFL 49ers 2000: +6
NFL VIKINGS 1000: +3
CFB Nevada 500: +10
CFB Notre Dame 500: +9.5
CFB Notre Dame 1500: +10.5

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Dr Bob Hoops

3*- neb-omaha +24 or better