12-21-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Central Florida vs. Ball State Cardinals
Point Spread - Pick

Central Florida Knights (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) vs. Ball State Cardinals (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl
Date/Time: Friday, December 21st, 2012, 7:30 p.m. EST
Where: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: UCF -7/BSU +7
Over/Under Total: 61.5

Two nine-win teams looking to reach that magical 10-win plateau will clash indoors in December when the Central Florida Knights meet the Ball State Cardinals in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl at Tropicana Field on Friday, December 21st, on ESPN.

Ball State enters the game as one of the hottest teams in the country riding a six-game win streak, turning around a 3-3 start to the season to finish one game out of the Mid-American Conference (MAC) West division behind the BCS-busting Northern Illinois Huskies. But under the surface the Cardinals three losses came against Clemson, Kent State and Northern Illinois, three teams that combined to go 33-5 this season, so Ball State is a much better team than some people are giving them credit for by just looking at the numbers.

The Cardinals will be looking to make a little history too, since they have never won a bowl game in the football program’s existence going 0-5 in their previous five post-season appearances. This will also be the first-ever bowl appearance for second-year head coach Pete Lembo, who came to the Cardinals from the ranks of FCS (Elon) and academic schools like Lehigh and Dartmouth.

Central Florida limps into the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl as losers of two of their last three games, including a heartbreaker in the Conference USA Championship game to Tulsa in overtime, 33-27. The Knights fell apart late in the game, falling asleep on a long punt return late in the fourth quarter before losing after failing to do anything on their opening possession of OT. Ironically, both late-season loses came against Tulsa (their other two loses were to Ohio State and Missouri), so the Knights will be happy to play anybody else other than the Golden Hurricanes this bowl season.

Oddsmakers are expecting Central Florida to rebound following the title-game loss, opening the game with the Knights as 8-point favorites in their home state when the number went up on the board early in December. After a week of action, mostly on Ball State, the line has dropped the hook to minus -7.5 at a few offshore sportsbooks, while the rest of the sports book world is currently listing the number at -7.

The over/under total opened at 61.5 and has yet to move in either direction since it went up on the board.

Offensively this game will be keyed by the quarterbacks, both Knights sophomore Blake Bortles and Cardinals junior Keith Wenning. In his second year of playing, Bortles is starting to approach school records held by former Knight and NFL player Daunte Culpepper. The long layoff before the bowl game will likely help Wenning, who snapped his 33-game consecutive starts streak by missing the Cardinals finale with a broken bone in his ankle, even though he’s officially listed as questionable.

Bortles has thrown 22 touchdowns and hits on 63 percent of his passes, but his best attribute is that he spreads the ball around very well for a young QB, since the Knights have 11 players that average over 10 yards per catch and 10 different receivers who have at least one touchdown score. Running back Latavious Murray (1,035 yards, 16 TD) gives the Knights a dangerous option out of the backfield, but there’s really no single player that the Knights rely on despite scoring 35.2 points per game (27th in FBS).

Ball State has an impressive offensive line and a 1,000-yard rusher in Jahwan Edwards (1,321 yards, 14 TD) that helps to take the pressure off of Wenning, but at 471 yards a game (22nd) and 35 points per game (31st) the Cardinals offense is high-powered like most teams in the MAC. Receiver Willie Snead (1,070, yards, 7 TD) is Wenning’s top weapon on the perimeter, but Jamill Smith (6 TD) and TE Zane Fakes (5 TD) are also involved over the middle when the Cardinals need to move the chains.

The biggest difference is this game though will likely be on defense. Central Florida sports two of the best safeties in Florida in Kemal Ishmael (C-USA Defensive Player of the Year) and Clayton Geathers, and both have over 100 tackles this season to show for it and help the Knights hold teams to just 22.5 points per game. Ball State, like most teams in the MAC, take defense as an option and their 460 yards a game allowed (104th) and huge yardage allowed on the ground (206 ypg – 108th) make the Cardinals offense have to work twice as hard as they should in order to outscore teams week to week.

These two schools have met three times on the gridiron in the past, the last time coming in 2004 when the Knights were members of the MAC, but lost 21-17 to Ball State in Muncie. Ball State also won at home in 1996, but the only meeting in Florida (1998) ended in a huge Knights victory, 37-14.

Other obscure items worth noting about this game is the fact that the Knights played in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl in 2009, losing to Rutgers 45-24.

The bowl game will also be Central Florida head coach George O’ Leary’s 200th career game. The Knights will certainly try and make the milestone a victory, but historically Central Florida is a meager 1-5 SU versus teams from the state of Indiana. The Knights are 5-2 ATS against the MAC, but the Cardinals are also strong in non-conference play (19-7 ATS in L26), so the betting trends are sort of a wash.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Central Florida tends to keep games close and doesn't blow very many teams out. On the flip side, I think Ball St. has a shot of winning this game straight up so I'm very happy to take the points here. This being somewhat of a home game for UCF is overrated and I don't buy into it.
Take Ball St. plus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

FRIDAY


• Play Ball State +7 over Central Florida (NCAA BOWL GAME OF
YEAR)---60% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 7:30 PM EST


Ball State has covered the spread in 9 of the last 12 games and they
have also covered the spread in 7 consecutive games coming off a
conference win by seven points or less. Ball State has covered the
spread in 4 of the last 5 games as an underdog and they are averaging
over 39 points a game on offense over the last three games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SBP does have a play on the Beef OBrady Bowl scheduled for Friday (12/21).
207. Ball St. +7 (service play)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping Kings

GOODFELLAS

BEEF "O" BRADY BOWL (BOWL #4)

7:30PM Ball State vs Central Florida
[207] (CIGAR GAME- 2 UNIT GAME) Ball State +8 -116

MARC

BEEF "O" BRADY BOWL (BOWL #4)

7:30PM Ball State vs Central Florida
[207] ( LIGHTS OUT-2 UNIT PLAY) OVER 61.5 -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers Beef O'Brady Bowl Winner: Ball St vs UCF

10* Ball St.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Ball State Cardinals (+7, 61.5)

BEEF ‘O’ BRADY’S BOWL STORYLINES

1. Ball State began the season 3-3 and has won six straight games since, while Central Florida was victorious in two of its first four games before finishing 7-2.

2. Jahwan Edwards of Ball State and Central Florida’s Latavius Murray have each rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Cardinals average 214.3 yards and UCF 178.7 on the ground.

3. Ball State has won four games with scores in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime. Central Florida is 2-3 in games decided by seven points or less.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Central Florida opened as a touchdown favorite and has remained steady. The total has also stood pat at 61.5 points.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. MAC.
* Cardinals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-2 in Knights' last nine vs. MAC.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six non-conference games.

ABOUT BALL STATE (9-3, 6-2 MAC, 9-3 ATS): The Cardinals are tied for the third most victories in the program’s history, thanks to a productive offense. Ball State’s losses are to Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State - who combined for a 33-5 record - and the Cardinals have averaged 31 points in those games. Quarterback Keith Wenning, who is probable with an Achilles injury which kept him out of the last regular-season game, has completed 65.5 percent of his passes and thrown for 22 touchdowns while averaging 261.2 yards. Willie Snead is the top target with 82 receptions and 1,070 yards and 135-pound Jamill Smith has 69 for 706. Edwards, who has totaled of 1,321 yards, keys a ground game that has produced more than 220 yards in four of the last five games. Linebacker Travis Freeman is the nation’s active leader in career tackles with 455. Ball State is 0-5 in bowl games and plays in its first since the 2008-09 season.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-4, 7-1 C-USA, 6-7 ATS): The Knights have lost to undefeated Ohio State, bowl-bound Tulsa twice and Missouri – three of those by six points or less. Central Florida, which has won one of three games all time against Ball State, has been balanced by scoring 31 times on the ground and 25 through the air. Murray has 1,035 yards rushing in 10 games. Quarterback Blake Bortles has thrown 22 touchdown passes with only seven interceptions – three less than his counterpart. Bortles averages more than 200 yards and has completed 62.6 percent of his passes. J.J. Worton, Rannell Hall and Jeff Godfrey all have at least 31 receptions and 400 yards, combining for 11 scores. Central Florida is tied for 16th in the nation in turnover margin plus .85). The Knights are 1-3 in bowl games, winning their last against Georgia in the 2010 Liberty Bowl. They lost to Rutgers 45-24 in the 2009 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Phil Steele

13 points: Ball State over Central Florida
Beef O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl (Dec. 21; St. Petersburg, Fla.)
Pick Center Matchup
We'd move this game down the list some if star quarterback Keith Wenning isn't cleared to suit up for Ball State, and we might even change sides if capable backup Kelly Page remains sidelined as well. But if Wenning is leading the troops, it's full steam ahead on this underdog despite a lack of bowl experience. Ball State is a rising MAC power coached by Pete Lembo, and this year the Cardinals have three losses to teams that combined for a 32-4 record in the regular season. Central Florida is the more talented team, but it's one that can't seem to play well on both sides of the ball in the same game, and the part of the season the Knights truly cared about ended two weeks ago with a controversial loss in the Conference USA title game.
Ball State 35, Central Florida 28

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Beef O’Brady Bowl: St. Petersburg, Florida
Ball State vs. Central Florida (-7) 7:30 ESPN
5* Ball State
Fully acknowledge the instate presence of UCF at this nearby site as well as the reduced line based on Ball State’s 6 game win streak and their 9-3 ATS log in which they covered by a net of 67 points. There’s little doubt that UCF has the better defense at 23/380 compared to Ball’s stop unit that averages 32/460 allowing 206 yards or more both running and passing. Yet whether it is injured QB Wenning (ankle) or his capable replacement, QB Page at the controls, favor the Cards as TD dog in this one. Ball has a veteran OL that keyed a 200 Club member attack balanced by RB Edwards. Ball averaged 214 or more yards both running and passing. Far prefer that attack unit over the Knights skill position players of QB Bortels and RB Murray. Ball was respectable 3-1 ATS as underdog, played the harder schedule, and may well have the better attitude after UCF lost the CUSA Championship at Tulsa in OT. With each offense superlative to the defense of the other, it would not surprise to see this evolve into a high scoring shootout.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with BYU (-3 1/2) Thursday.

Friday it’s Central Florida. The deficit is 1228 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Raptors won last four games, covered last five (2-2 as HF). Orlando won its last four games (8-3-1 as AU).
-- Hawks won five of their last six road games (4-1 vs spread on road if spread is 5 or less points).
-- Bulls won six of their last eight games (2-3 as AU). New York won 10 of its last 12 games (8-0 as HF of 7 or less points).
-- Bucks won five of their last seven games (5-3 as AU).
-- Pacers won/covered four of their last five games (favorites are 11-4 vs spread in Indiana road games). Cavaliers lost last five games (covered one of the five-- 4-7 vs spread at home).
-- Memphis won/covered last three games (by 13-9-10 points; they are 8-3 as HF).
-- Warriors won 10 of their last 13 games (4-3 as HF).
-- Clippers won their last 11 games, covered seven of last eight (8-3 as a home favorite).

Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost last five games, all by 7+ points (5-9 vs spread at home).
-- Celtics lost three of their last four games (5-5-1 as HF).
-- Wizards lost last five games (4-1-1 vs spread in last six). Pistons lost their last six games (2-4 as HF).
-- Mavericks lost four of last five games (3-5 as AU of 5+ points).
-- Hornets lost their last nine games (8-4 as AU). Spurs lost four of last five games, but all four losses were on road (6-0 HF of 6+ points).
-- Charlotte lost last 13 games, covered two of last eight (4-6 as AU).
-- Kings lost five of their last six games (4-7 as road dog).

Totals
-- Six of last eight Orlando games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in Philly's last six games.
-- 11 of last 13 Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- 10 of last 14 Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Washington games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Dallas games went over the total.
-- Eight of last 11 New Orleans road games went over.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Charlotte's last eleven games.
-- Five of last six Clipper games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Mavericks are 2-4 vs spread if they played the night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/21/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1251-369 (.772)
ATS: 489-508 (.490)
ATS Vary Units: 1796-1980 (.476)
Over/Under: 144-127 (.531)
Over/Under Vary Units: 192-196 (.495)

Cable Car Classic
1st Round at Santa Clara, CA
SANTA CLARA 78, Alcorn State 60
Wagner 60, Smu 58

World Vision Challenge
Round Robin at Logan, UT
Southern Illinois 74, Nicholls State 63
UTAH STATE 79, UC Davis 65

Big Sky Conference
Montana 73, SACRAMENTO STATE 66
NORTH DAKOTA 72, Northern Colorado 71

Non-Conference
ALBANY 72, Quinnipiac 64
BAYLOR 80, Byu 72
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 73, Northeastern 70
COLORADO 83, Northern Arizona 55
CONNECTICUT 76, Fordham 55
DELAWARE 68, Penn 60
DENVER 71, Southern Utah 56
FORT WAYNE 75, Kennesaw State 58
HIGH POINT 69, Eastern Kentucky 68
INDIANA 90, Florida Atlantic 58
MARYLAND 70, Stony Brook 58
NORTH DAKOTA STATE 71, Morehead State 60
NOTRE DAME 79, Niagara 62
RUTGERS 73, Howard 52
SOUTH FLORIDA 60, Bowling Green 47
ST. JOHN'S 77, UNC Asheville 70
Stanford vs. NORTHWESTERN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
TENNESSEE 77, Western Carolina 59
TENNESSEE STATE 69, USC Upstate 66
UT San Antonio 70, TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI 66
UTAH 75, Cal State Northridge 65
Vanderbilt 64, Middle Tennessee 62
VCU 96, Longwood 54
Washington State 64, Buffalo 59
WYOMING 70, UC Santa Barbara 57
Youngstown State 71, BETHUNE-COOKMAN 70

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 17 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 0-1 (.000)
ATS: 0-1 (.000)
ATS Vary Units: 0-8 (.000)
Over/Under: 0-1 (.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-2 (.000)

Season
Straight Up: 1043-345 (.751)
ATS: 416-392 (.515)
ATS Vary Units: 2442-2286 (.516)
Over/Under: 373-359 (.510)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1228-879 (.583)

Friday, December 21, 2012
Beef O'Brady's Bowl
at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
UCF 36, Ball State 35

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/21/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 249-117 (.680)
ATS: 186-186 (.500)
ATS Vary Units: 619-543 (.533)
Over/Under: 196-177 (.525)
Over/Under Vary Units: 350-293 (.544)

TORONTO 94, Orlando 93
Atlanta 92, PHILADELPHIA 91
BOSTON 98, Milwaukee 91
NEW YORK 95, Chicago 90
DETROIT 96, Washington 91
Indiana 98, CLEVELAND 91
MEMPHIS 101, Dallas 90
SAN ANTONIO 106, New Orleans 89
L.A. CLIPPERS 109, Sacramento 93
GOLDEN STATE 109, Charlotte 93

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 953 - 709 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner FRI: Memphis -10 NBA