12-22-12

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Tale of the Tape: Falcons at Lions
by Sean Murphy

Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Saturday night’s showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions.

Offense

The Falcons have been held under 20 points only once this season, that coming in a winning effort back on November 4th against the Cowboys. They scored in all four quarters en route to a 34-0 win over the Giants last Sunday. Michael Turner has re-established himself as a key cog in recent weeks, scoring a touchdown in five consecutive games. Since throwing five interceptions in Week 11 against Arizona, Matt Ryan has tossed seven touchdowns compared to only two interceptions in the last four games.

Detroit is coming off one of its worst offensive showings of the season, putting up only 10 points in a blowout loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. Prior to that, the Lions had scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games. Calvin Johnson racked up 121 receiving yards last week, but was held out of the end zone for the second straight game. Mikel Leshoure has scored at least one touchdown in four of Detroit’s last four contests.

Edge: Atlanta

Defense

Atlanta gave up 30 points in its last road game in Carolina two weeks ago, but responded with a shutout of the defending Super Bowl champions back at home last Sunday. The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent defensively, giving up 31, 19, 23, 13, 30, and 0 points in their last six games overall. Their weakness has been against the run, where they allow five yards per rush on the road this season.

Speaking of problems defending the run, the Lions are giving up 4.9 yards per rush at home. Detroit has been absolutely torched lately, allowing at least 24 points in six straight games. With that being said, the Lions have still managed to outgain four of their last five opponents in terms of total yardage. They held the Falcons to 23 points in a losing effort right here at Ford Field last season.

Edge: Atlanta

Special teams

The Falcons should have a field day returning punts against a Lions special teams unit that allows a whopping 14.2 yards per return this season. The problem is, Atlanta has only managed 7.3 yards per return in that department. Falcons kicker Matt Bryant is one of the best in the business, but hasn't been quite as steady as he was earlier in the season, connecting on 31-of-36 field-goal attempts to date.

Detroit is averaging below the league average in terms of both kickoff and punt returning, and won't catch any sort of break against a Falcons special teams unit that performs better than the league average in coverage. Atlanta is allowing only 7.0 yards per punt return, and 21.3 yards on kickoffs. Veteran Lions kicker Jason Hanson has missed only four of 32 field-goal attempts, but one of those misses came on perhaps his biggest kick, in overtime against the Texans on Thanksgiving Day.

Edge: Atlanta

Word on the street

“I thought we set the tempo early with our run game and it goes hand-in-hand when you’re able to run the football." Falcons head coach Mike Smith on his team returning to its roots by focusing on its ground game against the Giants last Sunday.

"You know, all we need is to have one play from every guy that we didn't have last week. You know, Calvin's going to have his, but every guy has to have a play that's made." Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan speaking about the top-heavy nature of his receiving corps.

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Trace Adams


Highest-Rated
2000♦
Double Your Wager
College FB Winner #6 in a Row
#10 of 13 Overall ALL Sports


UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns -5

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CFB

New Orleans Bowl
I tend to be wary of teams going back to same bowl they won LY; UL-Lafayette (+4) upset San Diego State 32-30 in this game LY, their first-ever bowl, in front of partisan crowd of 42,000+; their excitement level can’t be the same for this game. ULL scored 31-52-35 points in last three games; they allowed 21+ in last seven, and are 3-3-1 vs spread as favorites this year. East Carolina beat Tulane 28-23 on this field November 17, so they’ll be in familiar surroundings, only with much bigger crowd. All four of ECU’s losses this year are by 20+ points; they scored 41+ points in last four wins. Pirates are in 5th bowl in last six years after staying home LY; they’ve lost last three bowls, but those were all vs SEC/ACC teams. ECU’s last bowl win was an upset of Boise State in Hawai’i five years ago. ULL played slightly tougher schedule this year. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 5-2 vs spread this year; C-USA road dogs are 7-12. This will basically be a ULL home game.

Las Vegas Bowl
Washington lost three of last four bowls, beating Nebraska 19-7 two years ago, before RGIII/Baylor ran them out of Alamodome LY, 67-56, game that cost DC Holt his job—he was replaced by Justin Wilcox, who was Boise’s DC from 2006-09. Boise State is in Las Vegas Bowl for third year in row (won 26-3/56-24 last two years, both as double digit favorites vs Pac-12 teams), so little bit wary of Broncos here, since they’ve got new QB/OC from LY. Peterson is 4-2 in bowl games (5-1 vs spread); Boise scored 27+ points in 8 of 12 games this year, but won three of four when they scored less- this is a less explosive Bronco team that has a better defense. Washington was on 4-game win streak and had 18-point lead in Apple Cup rivalry game, but blew that game- they allowed 17 or less points in all seven wins. Huskies are 5-3 vs spread as an underdog this year; Boise is 5-6 as a favorite. MWC non-conference favorites are 6-8 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 7-4.

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Cappers Access

(NFL) Lions +4-
(CFB) Boise St -5-
(CBB) Kansas +3

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Bulls won seven of their last nine games (3-3 as AU).
-- Miami won/covered five of last six games (8-6 aa HF).
-- Memphis won/covered last four games (by 13-9-10-10 points; they are 3-1-1 as AF). Houston won four of last five games (10-5 SU at home, 2-1 as HU).
-- Pacers won/covered five of their last six games (favorites are 12-4 vs spread in Indiana road games).
-- Bucks won six of their last eight games (4-3-1 as HF).
-- Nuggets won three of last four games (6-2 as HF).
-- Suns won/covered last four games (2-6 as AU). Portland won its last four games (2-4-1 as HF).
-- Warriors won 11 of their last 14 games (5-3 as HF). Lakers won last three games, are 1-4-1 vs spread in last six.

Cold Teams
-- Hawks lost three of their last four games (1-7-1 as HF).
-- Wizards lost last six games (4-2-1 vs spread in last seven). Pistons lost six of their last seven games (5-9 as AU).
-- Jazz lost three of their last four games (2-7-1 as AU).
-- Hornets lost their last ten games (9-4 as AU).
-- Cavaliers lost last six games (covered one of the six, are 4-7 as single digit underdog).
-- Bobcats lost last 14 games, covered two of last nine (4-7 as AU).

Totals
-- 11 of last 14 Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Washington games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last 12 New Orleans road games went over.
-- Last four Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in Charlotte's last twelve games.
-- Four of last five Phoenix games stayed under the total.
-- 10 of last 13 Golden State games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Bulls are 4-2 vs spread if they played night before. Hawks are 4-1.
-- Pistons are 3-4 vs spread if they played night before. Wizards are 4-2.
-- Memphis is 3-0 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Pacers are 4-3 vs spread if they played night before. Hornets are 3-3.
-- Cavaliers are 3-5 vs spread if they played night before. Bucks are 0-5.
-- Bobcats are 3-3 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Warriors are 4-2-1 vs spread if they played night before.

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CBB

-- Boeheim goes for win #901, against Temple team that had bad loss to Canisius last game; Orangemen beat San Diego State by 9 on a ship, won by 13 at Arkansas in only two non-home games- teams shoot 26% from arc, 39% inside it vs Syracuse. Orange is 3-0 vs top 100 teams, winning by 9-13-4 (Detroit) points. Temple's best win is over #98 Villanova.
-- Providence only plays seven guys, but they're holding teams to 21.9% behind arc (#3 in country); Friars are 8-2 playing #327 schedule; this is first road game, against BC team they've lost to three of last four years, losing by 2-5 in last two visits here. Eagles are 5-5, 0-3 vs top 100 clubs, with losses by 10-16-16 points- their best win is #154 Auburn.
-- Texas whacked North Carolina Wednesday, its first win in three top 100 games (lost by 22-2); Longhorns won last two games vs Michigan State by 11-12 points (teams didn't play LY). 9-2 Spartans have 2 wins over teams ranked better than #172; they turn ball over 23% of time, not a typical Izzo team. Texas has a defensive eFG% of 36% (#1 in US).
-- Northern Iowa's big men played scared in 14-point loss at UNLV in last game Wednesday; game wasn't that close. 5-5 Panthers are vs teams in top 50, with three losses by 7 or less points. UNI lost at St Mary's by 16 LY. 8-2 Gaels lost by 9 on neutral court to Georgia Tech, its only game against team ranked higher than #127- they make 40.8% of 3's.

-- 9-3 Richmond is 0-3 vs top 60 teams; best team they've beaten so far this year is #131 Wofford; Spiders used to be CAA rivals with George Mason, but teams haven't played in at least a decade. Mason has been off for two weeks since OT loss to Northern Iowa; Patriots are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with all four losses by seven or less points.
-- First true road game for Kansas team that beat Ohio State at home by 11 LY; Jayhawks are 6-1 vs top 100 teams, 1-1 vs top 50, losing by 3 on neutral court to Michigan State. Kansas has blocked 24.2% of foes' shots this year. Buckeyes are 9-1, with 73-68 loss at Duke in its only away game; best team they've beaten is #101 Washington, by 11.
-- 12-0 Illinois has three top 100 wins, Gonzaga/Butler best of the three; Illini lost last three years to Missouri (all games played in St Louis) by 4-11-13 points after winning previous seven meetings. Mizzou is 9-1 vs #319 schedule; they've beaten Stanford/VCU, lost to Louisville by 23, but none of other seven opponents are ranked in top 200.
--9-1 Florida gagged away 6-point lead in last minute at Arizona a week ago, its only loss- they won by 25 at Florida State in its other road tilt. Gators beat Kansas State in last meeting, two years ago. 8-2 K-State lost to pair of top 20 teams, by 14 to Michigan, 16 to Gonzaga- best win is by 3 at #134 George Washington. KState rebounds 44% of its misses.
-- Murray State has three road wins, but is 1-1 in top 100 games, with a 72-67 win over St John's, 7-point loss to Colorado on neutral floor- they beat Dayton by 17 at home LY. Flyers are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Colorado by 10, Illinois State by 1, beating Alabama by 5. Dayton is turning ball over 21.9% of time, a lot for a good team.

-- 12-0 New Mexico just beat in-state rival New Mexico State twice; last game was 78-73 in Las Cruces Wednesday. Lobos are #1 in country at getting to foul line, where they make 76.1% as team. South Dakota State is pretty good, they're 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 3-24-27 points, losing 76-49 at Belmont Wednesday. Summit road underdogs are 19-24.
-- Idaho State are 0-8 vs D-I teams after losing by 14 at Portland State in its Big Sky opener; Bengals lost last nine visits to Eastern Washington, losing by 13 points each of last two years. Six of State's eight D-I losses are by 8+ points. Eastern is 2-9 after losing by 21 at home to Weber St. in its league opener- they allowed 74+ points in their last six games.
-- 7-3 South Carolina turns ball over 26.5% of time; their best guard is a WR on football team, and they're prepping for bowl game. Gamecocks haven't beaten a team in top 200 (#209 Rider is best win). Manhattan is 3-6 after losing by 27 to LIU; their best win is over #234 Fordham, so both teams are struggling. SEC road favorites are 7-9 against spread.
-- Weber State won four of last five games, winning at EWU by 21 in its Big Sky opener; Wildcats won eight of last ten games with Portland St., but lost two of last three visits here. Weber is holding opponents to 24% behind arc this year. Vikings beat Idaho State by 14 in league opener, its first win in six D-I games; they turn ball over 22.7% of the time.

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NFL

Falcons (12-2) @ Lions (4-10)-- Atlanta had big win over Giants last week, but they've lost two of last three road games (win was 24-23 in Tampa); they're 2-3 as an away favorite, with road wins by 16-24-7-1-13 points. Detroit had hideous loss to the Cardinals last week, allowing two more return TDs. For season, Lions don't have a return TD; their opponents have nine. Detroit is 23-11 in its history against the Falcons, but 1-3 in last four; Atlanta is 3-2 in last five visits here. NFC South non-divisional road faves are 4-1 vs spread; NFC North underdogs are 3-5, 1-0 at home. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; six of last eight Detroit games went over.

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Today's NFL Picks

Atlanta at Detroit

The Falcons look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is coming off a 38-10 loss to Arizona and is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. Atlanta is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (12/20)

Game 101-102: Atlanta at Detroit (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.528; Detroit 127.657 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10; 47 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 51 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Under

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/22/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1275-376 (.772)
ATS: 500-517 (.492)
ATS Vary Units: 1840-2004 (.479)
Over/Under: 146-131 (.527)
Over/Under Vary Units: 193-200 (.491)

Bank of the West Don Haskins Sun Bowl Classic
1st Round at El Paso, TX
Nebraska 62, Central Michigan 59
UTEP 69, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 49

Cable Car Classic
at Santa Clara, CA
Smu 63, Alcorn State 53

Championship
SANTA CLARA 69, Wagner 68

Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic
3rd Round at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Georgia Southern 64, Mississippi Valley State 62
North Florida 69, CSU Bakersfield 68
Colorado State 75, Portland 61
Virginia Tech 70, Bradley 64

Diamond Head Classic
1st Round at Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI
Arizona 76, East Tennessee State 52
Miami (Fla.) 80, HAWAI'I 66
Ole Miss 72, Indiana State 62
San Diego State 74, San Francisco 65

Gotham Classic
Round Robin at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Syracuse 77, Temple 64

Las Vegas Classic
Opening Round at MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, CA
James Madison 71, San Jose State 70
Oregon State 78, San Diego 67

World Vision Challenge
Round Robin at Logan, UT
UC Davis 76, Nicholls State 70
UTAH STATE 70, Southern Illinois 61

Big Sky Conference
EASTERN WASHINGTON 74, Idaho State 67
Weber State 76, PORTLAND STATE 73

Sun Belt Conference
SOUTH ALABAMA 69, Ualr 67

Non-Conference
Air Force 66, UC RIVERSIDE 56
ALABAMA 62, Mercer 49
APPALACHIAN STATE 76, Presbyterian 66
Arizona State 70, TEXAS TECH 67
Arkansas 83, Alabama A&M 62
AUBURN 65, Winthrop 53
BOSTON U. 67, Cornell 58
BRYANT 61, Dartmouth 57
Bucknell 60, PRINCETON 58
BUTLER 77, Evansville 63
CALIFORNIA 80, Prairie View A&M 55
CINCINNATI 72, Wright State 46
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 71, Coastal Carolina 61
COLUMBIA 67, Elon 63
Davidson 68, DREXEL 67
DAYTON 70, Murray State 69
DePAUL 90, Umbc 62
DRAKE 75, Eastern Illinois 55
Duquesne vs. UL LAFAYETTE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Florida 69, Kansas State 58
Florida Gulf Coast 78, MAINE 66
Florida State 68, Charlotte 64
GEORGE WASHINGTON 82, Vmi 69
GEORGETOWN 70, American 42
GEORGIA 58, Usc 49
GEORGIA TECH 73, The Citadel 49
GREEN BAY 79, South Dakota 66
HARTFORD 64, Marist 59
HARVARD 65, Holy Cross 53
HOUSTON 82, Chicago State 63
ILLINOIS STATE 89, Austin Peay 64
IOWA 88, Coppin State 63
JACKSONVILLE 72, Furman 64
KENT STATE 72, Arkansas State 64
KENTUCKY 83, Marshall 61
LA SALLE 83, Sacred Heart 62
Louisville 73, Western Kentucky 56
Loyola (Chicago) 60, SAINT PETER'S 57
MARQUETTE 72, Lsu 62
MASSACHUSETTS 81, East Carolina 72
MICHIGAN STATE 68, Texas 57
MINNESOTA 87, Lafayette 56
Mississippi State 80, Central Arkansas 67
Missouri 75, Illinois 68
NAVY 64, Northern Kentucky 54
NC STATE 80, St. Bonaventure 68
NEW MEXICO 76, South Dakota State 61
NEW MEXICO STATE 71, Missouri State 52
NORTH CAROLINA 88, McNeese State 66
Oakland 67, EASTERN MICHIGAN 65
OHIO 81, Umes 51
OHIO STATE 70, Kansas 68
OKLAHOMA STATE 77, Tennessee Tech 56
ORAL ROBERTS 71, Tulsa 64
OREGON 90, Houston Baptist 58
Providence 69, BOSTON COLLEGE 60
RHODE ISLAND 68, Georgia State 59
Richmond 67, George Mason 65
SAINT JOSEPH'S 67, Fairfield 58
SAINT LOUIS 74, Loyola Marymount 60
Saint Mary's 71, NORTHERN IOWA 67
SEATTLE 83, Campbell 73
Seton Hall 80, Long Island 77
South Carolina 67, Manhattan 66
Southeast Missouri vs. KANSAS CITY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ST. FRANCIS (N.Y.) 74, Colgate 69
Tcu vs. RICE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
TEXAS A&M 66, Southern 49
TEXAS SOUTHERN 72, Fairleigh Dickinson 70
TEXAS-PAN AMERICAN 76, Omaha 66
Tulane 66, Hofstra 61
UCLA 70, Fresno State 55
Uic 61, MIAMI (OHIO) 57
UNLV 81, Canisius 65
UTAH VALLEY 67, North Carolina Central 64
VERMONT 75, Fairleigh Dickinson 55
Villanova 76, MONMOUTH 66
Virginia 67, Old Dominion 49
Wake Forest 80, UNC GREENSBORO 75
WASHINGTON 79, Northern Illinois 53
WEST VIRGINIA 77, Radford 55
WESTERN MICHIGAN 70, Mount St. Mary's 58
WICHITA STATE 72, Southern Miss 58
WISCONSIN 74, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 46
XAVIER 67, Wofford 55

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DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 17 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 1-1 (.500)
ATS: 0-2 (.000)
ATS Vary Units: 0-14 (.000)
Over/Under: 0-2 (.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 0-6 (.000)

Season
Straight Up: 1044-345 (.752)
ATS: 416-393 (.514)
ATS Vary Units: 2442-2292 (.516)
Over/Under: 373-360 (.509)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1228-883 (.582)

Saturday, December 22, 2012
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Louisiana-Lafayette 46, East Carolina 42
Maaco Las Vegas Bowl
at Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Boise State 25, Washington 24

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/22/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 256-120 (.681)
ATS: 192-190 (.503)
ATS Vary Units: 632-554 (.533)
Over/Under: 200-183 (.522)
Over/Under Vary Units: 353-298 (.542)

WASHINGTON 94, Detroit 92
ATLANTA 90, Chicago 89
MIAMI 104, Utah 94
Indiana 92, NEW ORLEANS 89
Memphis 99, HOUSTON 98
MILWAUKEE 104, Cleveland 91
DENVER 112, Charlotte 92
PORTLAND 103, Phoenix 100
GOLDEN STATE 105, L.A. Lakers 102

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 16 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 130-83 (.610)
ATS: 98-120 (.450)
ATS Vary Units: 410-626 (.396)
Over/Under: 103-117 (.468)
Over/Under Vary Units: 382-374 (.505)

Saturday, December 22, 2012
Atlanta 30, DETROIT 21

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Central Florida (-7 1/2) Friday.

Saturday it’s UL-Lafayette. The deficit is 1178 sirignanos.

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

7 point Teaser

Falcons +2.5/ Under 58

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Washington vs. Boise State

The Huskies look to take advantage of a Boise State team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5 1/2). Here are all of this year's bowl games.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (12/12)

Game 209-210: East Carolina vs. UL-Lafayette (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 77.270; UL-Lafayette 85.709 Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 8 1/2; 59 Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 5 1/2; 64 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-5 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Washington vs. Boise State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 100.064; Boise State 95.383 Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Boise State by 5 1/2; 46 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5 1/2); Over