12-30-12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Write-Up

Week 17

Jets (6-9) @ Bills (5-10)-- Gang Green (-3.5) hammered Buffalo 48-28 in season opener, back in happier days for Jets; Bills turned ball four times (-3), gave up an average of 9.9 ypa to NJ offense that is now dysfunctional at best, turning ball over 18 times in last five games (-14, were +1 in first 10 games). McElroy makes first road start here. Buffalo lost three in row, seven of last nine games; they gave up 18 or less points in all five wins (5-1) but are 0-9 allowing more than 18. Can the Jets score 19? They've now beaten Bills six games in row, winning last three here, by 9-24-16 points. Five of seven Buffalo road games went over total; three of last four Jet games stayed under.

Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (11-4)-- New England has to play to win, just in case Denver were to get upset by Browns; Patriots (-7.5) beat Dolphins 23-16 back in Week 13, when Miami kicked late FG to cover spread. Patriots won last five series games and nine of last 11, winning last three played here, by 10-31-3; they are 3-4 as home faves this year, winning at home by 10-3-6-35-28 points. 11 of last 13 Patriot games went over the total; five of last seven Miami games stayed under. Miami is 3-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 20-3-3-5-14 points- five of its eight losses are by 7 or less points. Favorites are 6-4 vs the spread in AFC East divisional games, 3-3 at home.

Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (9-6)-- Both teams will play a playoff game next week, would expect banged-up guys to sit out; Ravens (-6) crushed Cincy 44-13 back in season opener, averaging 8.8 ypa, but they've lost five of last seven visits to Queen City (won 24-16 here LY). Bengals won/covered six of last seven games; they won at Pittsburgh LW despite three turnovers, only 14 rushing yards, and allowing Dalton to be sacked six times. Ravens snapped 3-game skid by routing Giants; they're 4-3 on road, with five of seven games decided by three points or less. Home favorites are 1-3-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. Six of last seven Bengal games stayed under; three of last four Raven games went over.

Texans (12-3) @ Colts (10-5)-- Indy coach Pagano's entrance to field will be an emotional moment, coming back from leukemia, but fact of matter is that Indy's spot in playoffs is set, while Texans need this win to clinch home field in AFC playoffs. Houston (-9) beat Colts 29-17 at home two weeks ago, blocking punt for a score- they had only one offensive TD, and didn't have any vs Vikings LW, in awful 23-6 home loss. Star RB Foster has heart issue, not sure if he plays in this game. AFC South home teams are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games, home dogs are 1-3. Houston is 6-1 on road, with five wins by 6+ points. Three of last four Houston games stayed under; under is 6-3-1 in last ten Indy games. Hard to overlook 352 rushing yards Colts allowed in win at Kansas City last week.

Jaguars (2-13) @ Titans (5-10)—Jax lost 11 of last 12 games, with only win 24-19 (+3) over Tennessee at home five weeks ago; they’re 5-7 in last 12 series games, with series splitting five of last six years; Jaguars lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 7-17-6 points. Titans lost at Jacksonville despite having seven sacks. Three of last five series totals were 33 or less. Jaguars outgained New England 436-349 last week, threw an INT in end zone on last play trying to tie game; they’re 5-2 as road underdogs this year, but lost 34-18/24-3 in last two away games. Tennessee lost 55-7 at Lambeau last week, after winning ugly Monday night games week before; they’re 1-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 3-4 SU at home, with wins by 3-3-4 points. Home teams are 3-7 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 2-4 if home favorite. Four of last five Jaguar games, three of last four Titan home games stayed under the total.

Eagles (4-11) @ Giants (8-7)—Giants were putrid last two weeks, getting outgained 927-442, outscored 67-14 in pair of lopsided road losses; they need this win and help to make playoffs. Philly was 3-1 after nipping Giants 19-17 (-2.5) in Week 4, outrushing Big Blue 191-57; they had 10-yard advantage in field position, but had just one TD, three FGs in four red zone drives. Roof has fallen in on Eagles since; they’ve lost 10 of last 11 games, still have no wins by more than two points, with seven of last eight losses by 7+ points. With Foles breaking hand, Vick expected to start, which amounts to audition for whatever team sings him next spring. Iggles have now won eight of last nine games with Giants—they won last five visits here, winning by 6-19-7-7-7 points. Five of last seven series totals were 44+. NFC East home teams are 2-8 vs spread in divisional games, 1-5 if favored. Giants won five of last six home games, scoring 90 points in winning last two (Packers/Saints).

Bears (9-6) @ Lions (4-11)—Chicago scored two defensive TDs in easy win at Arizona last week, week after Lions gave up two defensive scores in 38-10 loss in desert, Cardinals’ only win in their last 11 games. It was just second win in last seven games for Bears, who held off Detroit 13-7 (-6.5) back in Week 7, outrushing Lions 171-99; they were saved by four takeaways (+4), as Lions scored only seven points in four trips to Chicago red zone. Series has been swept seven of last eight year, with Chicago 5-2 in last seven visits here. Bears are 4-3 on road, with all four wins by 16+ points; they’re 2-1 as road favorites this year, 8-3-1 since 2008. Detroit lost its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread) despite Johnson setting single season record for receiving yards; they’ve lost last four home games, with three of four losses by 4 or less points. NFC North home underdogs are 2-2 vs spread in divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home dogs are 16-19-1 vs spread. Five of Bears’ last six road games went over the total, as did six of last nine Detroit games.

Buccaneers (6-9) @ Falcons (13-2)—Atlanta has #1 seed in NFC wrapped up, would expect banged-up guys to be held out; Bucs lost last five games (0-4-1 vs spread), as friction between players/coaches has been reported. First of those five straight losses was Falcons’ 24-23 win (-1) in Tampa in Week 12, when Ryan passed for 345 yards (10.5 ypa) and Atlanta survived -2 turnover ratio. Falcons are 7-0 at home this year, 4-3 as favorites, with wins by 6-2-3-6-4-10-34 points. Bucs are 4-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 7-6-8-41 points (3-4 SU on road, but lost last two). Tampa Bay has one offensive TD, 10 turnovers on 23 drives in last two games, as Freeman was picked eight times- they were outscored 48-6 in first half of last three games. NFC South home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, with home favorites 2-1. Five of last six games for both teams stayed under the total.

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (7-8)—Carolina won four of last five games after 2-8 start; Saints have shot at finishing 8-8 after 0-4 start, which included a 35-27 loss (-2.5) in Charlotte in Week 2, in wild game (Saints outgained Carolina 486-463) that was Panthers’ first win in last five series games- they lost last three visits here, by 10-2-28 points. After going 0-12 on third down in 36-14 loss to Denver in Week 10, Panthers have converted 43-83 (51.8%) over last six games, as Newton’s mobility allows them to move chains. Carolina is 6-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road; dogs are 10-5 vs spread overall in their ’12 games. Saints scored 41-34 points in winning last two games; they won four of last five home games after losing first two, scoring 30.4 ppg in last five- they’re 3-2 as home favorite this year. NFC South home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-1 if favored. Four of last six Carolina road games, five of Saints’ last seven games went over the total.

Browns (5-10) @ Steelers (7-8)—Pittsburgh in rare spot as also-ran here; they’ve lost three in row and five of last six games- seven of their last eight games were decided by six or less points (3-5). Steelers (-1.5) turned ball over eight times with Batch at QB in hideous 20-14 loss on Lake Erie in Week 12, just their 2nd loss in last 18 games vs Cleveland; Browns outrushed them 108-49, started five drives (scored 17 points) in Steeler territory. Cleveland lost its last eight visits here, with seven of the eight by 11+ points. Browns are 2-4 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 7-7-14-4-3-22 points, with a win at Oakland. Steelers lost last three home games; they’ve been held under 100 rushing yards in last five games. Pitt has six sacks, three takeaways last week, still lost tough game to Bengals. Home teams are 3-5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games, 1-3-1 if favored. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Cleveland games, 1-3 in last four Steeler games.

Packers (11-4) @ Vikings (9-6)—Both teams need this win; Pack for home field/bye in playoffs, Vikings just to get in tournament. Green Bay (-8) beat Vikings 23-14 at home four weeks ago at Lambeau, despite Minnesota running ball for 240 yards- they’ve now won last five series games, and 10 of last 13. Series has been swept in seven of last eight years; Pack won four of last six visits here, winning 31-3/33-27 last two years. Green Bay won nine of last 10 games overall, four of last five on road since losing to emotional Colts in Week 6, when they blew 21-3 halftime lead; they’ve covered last six games when favored. Vikings won/covered all three games since Lambeau loss, running ball for 558 yards, as Peterson chases Dickerson’s single-season rushing mark; they’re 6-1 at home this year, losing only to Bucs in Thursday night game, 6-3 as underdogs. NFC North underdogs are 5-3-2 in divisional play, 2-2-1 if at home. Five of last six Green Bay games, four of last five Viking games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (2-13) @ Broncos (12-3)— Broncos need win for first round bye in playoffs, which is huge; Denver (-10) had only TD/FG in four red zone drives in 17-9 win at Arrowhead in Week 12- Chiefs outrushed them 148-95, but passed for only 116 yards. Broncos won last five home games, by 31-20-7-8-22 points; they’ve covered seven of last nine games overall, all as favorites. Nightmare of season ends here for Chiefs, with housecleaning likely to follow; KC is 2-5 vs spread on road this year- they’ve lost last three weeks by 23-15-7 points, outscored 32-10 in first half of those three games. Chiefs’ only two TDs on last 33 drives both came on 80+-yard runs by Charles, on the first play of a half. AFC West favorites are 6-4 vs spread in divisional play, 3-3 at home. Six of last seven KC games stayed under total; six of last eight Bronco games went over. This guy Mike McCoy, Denver’s OC? He has easiest job in America, because #18 does it for him.

Raiders (4-11) @ Chargers (6-9)—Carson Palmer is out here; either Leinart or Pryor (or both) get nod here, vs underachieving Charger team likely playing last game for Norv Turner. San Diego (-1.5) opened season with 22-14 win at Oakland, in game where Bolts had a ridiculous 25-yard edge in field position, but only scored one TD (and four FGs) in five red zone drives- it was fourth straight series win for the road team, with San Diego winning 12 of last 15 overall. Oakland won last two visits here, 28-13/24-17, after losing previous seven trips in. Raiders lost seven of last eight games, with only win vs dreadful Chiefs; they’re 2-5 vs spread on road, losing last three away games by average score of 35-12. San Diego lost five of last seven games, with both wins in eastern time zone; they lost last three home games, scoring total of 33 points. Favorites are 6-4 vs spread in AFC West divisional games, 3-3 at home. Last five Raider games, last three San Diego home games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (10-4-1)—Things could get ugly at Candlestick, where 49ers need to win in case Minnesota upsets the Packers; Niners (-7) waxed Redbirds 24-3 in Glendale in Week 8, holding Arizona to 7 yards rushing and 4.6 ypa. Series has been swept seven of last eight years; Cardinals lost last three visits here, by combined score of 85-23. Cardinals lost 11 of last 12 games; they gained total of 196 yards in the only win; they’re 3-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 14-7-14-4-1-58 points (they won at Foxboro in Week 2)- none of their QBs are capable of moving ball here. SF is off pair of tough road games- they allowed 31 points in second half at Foxboro, then 28 in first half at Seattle last week- underdogs are 5-2 vs spread when 49ers allow 20+ points, 2-6 when they don’t. Home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games, 2-2-1 if favored. Four of last five Arizona games, six of last seven 49ers games went over the total.

Rams (7-7-1) @ Seahawks (10-5)—Seattle is 7-0 at home this year, 4-0 as home favorite; they were underdog in first three home games this year- Hawks won last three at home by combined score of 128-20 (43-7 average). That said, Seahawks lost 19-13 (-2.5) at St Louis in Week 4, when Rams had three picks (+2), held Seahawks to 2-9 on 3rd down conversions and a TD/two FG on three red zone drives. That was just Rams’ second win in last 15 series games; they’ve lost last seven visits here, with six of seven losses by 10+ points. St Louis is 7-0 this season when they don’t lose turnover battle; they’re 4-0-1 SU in divisional games, tying Niners in Candlestick as 12-point dogs in Week 10- they’re 6-1 vs spread in true road games, losing away games by 4-17-3 points (won last three on road SU). Three of last four Ram games stayed under total; Seattle’s last five games went over. Rams covered last six games that stayed under, are 4-4 vs spread if game goes over.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Redskins (9-6)—Winner here takes NFC East title, which Washington hasn’t won since ’99; Skins won/covered last six games, including 38-31 (+3) at Dallas on Thanksgiving, when they outrushed Pokes 142-35, had three takeaways to offset Dallas’ 423 passing yards. Dallas won six of last eight series games, with five of last six series wins by 4 or less points- they’ve won three of last four played here, with average total in last five, 29. Last four Dallas games were all decided by 5 or less points; they’ve scored average of 21.6 points just in second half of their last seven games, as Romo-Bryant combo has clicked often. Cowboys are 5-2 vs spread on road, winning three of last four SU. Redskins won/covered last six games; they’re 3-3 as home favorites. Despite playing with two rookie QBs, Washington has had only two games this year where they’ve been minus in turnovers (+14). Four of last five games for both teams went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 17

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 17's action.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 41)

These two AFC North rivals could do it all again next week in the conference wildcard game. If Baltimore wins and the Patriots lose to the Dolphins, then the Ravens would host the Bengals in the first round. If they lose, they play the Indianapolis Colts to open the postseason. Baltimore will be looking to rest its starters and protect injured players. Cincinnati is also locked into a postseason spot but will likely try to finish the year with some momentum. The Bengals fell to the Ravens in Week 1, 44-13 as 7-point road underdogs. However, they have managed to go 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games with Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)

Cleveland is banged up heading into this finale. Running back Trent Richardson is nursing a bum ankle and quarterbacks Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy are both dealing with shoulder injuries. All three are questionable for Week 17. Pittsburgh missed the playoff bus after a loss to Cincinnati last week. The Steelers say they want to finish the season strong and avoid a losing record for the first time since 2003. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven meetings with Cleveland, including a 20-14 loss as 1-point road favorites in Week 12.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+7, 46.5)

Houston is skidding at the wrong time. The Texans have lost two of their last three and home-field advantage in the postseason hangs by a string versus Indianapolis. If Houston losses, it could fall as far back as third in the AFC and lose that home edge. Running back Arian Foster is expected to play after leaving with an irregular heartbeat last week. The Colts have clinched the fifth seed in the AFC and will welcome head coach Chuck Pagano back to the sidelines after his battle with leukemia. The home team has covered in each of the past five meetings between these AFC South rivals.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4, 41.5)

Could the tank be on with Jacksonville? If the Jaguars lose and Kansas City falls to Denver, the Jags would be guaranteed the No. 2 pick in the upcoming draft. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is not expected to suit up for the finale. Tennessee’s front office could be singing for their supper in Week 17. The Titans brass is pointing the finger at head coach Mike Munchak, GM Ruston Webster and COO Mike Reinfeldt and asking what went wrong this year. Going out on a winning note wouldn’t hurt. The Jaguars have covered in each of the past four meeting with the Titans, including a 24-19 win in Week 12.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7.5, 45.5)

New York not only needs to win to make the playoffs but also needs Dallas, Chicago and Minnesota to lose in Week 17. The Giants have been outscored 67-14 in the last two games, however, those came on the road. New York is averaging 33.7 points at home and can break the franchise home scoring mark if they score at least 13 points Sunday. The Eagles nearly played spoiler to Washington last week and already have a win over the Giants – a 19-17 victory in Week 4. QB Michael Vick returns under center for Philadelphia after Nick Foles broke his hand in Week 16.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39)

Jets head coach Rex Ryan said he would use the final contests as a chance to evaluate younger players for next season. The thing is, Ryan may not be around to see those talents in 2013. QB Mark Sanchez will get the start over an injured Greg McIlroy and RB Shonn Greene is trying to add a 1,000-yard rushing season to his free-agent resume. Buffalo desperately needs to end the year on a high note after losing three straight. Head coach Chan Gailey says he doesn’t plan on turning to his reserves in Week 17 and will roll out his usual lineup. New York is 5-1 in its last six meetings with Buffalo.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

Chicago needs to win and hope Minnesota loses to Green Bay in order to make the postseason cut. The Bears may also be playing for head coach Lovie Smith’s job. Chicago appeared locked into a high postseason seed before losing six of its last seven games (2-5 ATS). Jay Cutler needs to put the team on his back. The Bears have passed for fewer than 150 yards in six of their last 10 games. Detroit could roll over for Chicago in hopes of bettering its draft position. A Week 17 loss could translate in a third-overall selection. And with Calvin Johnson breaking the single-season receiving record last week, the Lions have little motivation.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (N/A)

Atlanta has already locked up the top seed in the NFC and could choose to rest its starters in a meaningless Week 17 game. However, momentum could be very important to the Falcons, who have flopped in the postseason in past years. Tampa Bay looked like a playoff sleeper at times this season but folded down the home stretch, losing five in a row. QB Josh Freeman is a big reason for that slide, throwing eight interceptions in his last two games. Head coach Greg Schiano is aiming to go out on a positive note, so expect the Bucs to give everything they have left.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5, 54)

Carolina is the hottest team in the NFL in recent weeks, bringing a three-game SU and ATS winning streaking into the season finale. QB Cam Newton has compiled 688 passing yards, 183 yards rushing and seven combined touchdowns in that span. The Saints aren’t going to the postseason for the first time since 2008 but won’t lie down in the finale. Interim head coach Joe Vitt - always one to go for it – says Week 17 is a precursor to the 2013 season. New Orleans has been dismal ATS at home versus Carolina, going just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home tilts with the Panthers.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-16, 42)

Denver is playing for the first-round bye Sunday and could even clinch home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs if Houston losses to Indianapolis. The last five times the Broncos earned home field through the postseason, they went to the Super Bowl in four of those seasons. Kansas City just wants to get this season over with. Head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli are gone following Week 17. Kansas City, however is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Week 17 contests.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (N/A)

This is expected to be Norv Turner’s final game as the Bolts head coach with rumors of his dismissal swirling about for the majority of the season. RBs Ryan Matthews and Ronnie Brown are both injured so expect a lot of air time for Philip Rivers and the passing attack. Oakland won’t have QB Carson Palmer in Week 17 after he injured his chest. The Raiders turn the snaps over to backups Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor and will look to RB Darren McFadden to shoulder the load on offense. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with San Diego.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-16.5, 39.5)

The Niners, who need a win to clinch the NFC West, not only took one on the chin from the Seahawks in Week 16 but also lost one of their biggest weapons in the passing game. WR Mario Manningham is out for the year with a knee injury. San Francisco could go with a ground-heavy attack, pitting their fourth-ranked rushing attack versus Arizona’s 28th-ranked run defense. The Cardinals are poised for a fire sale this offseason and many players may be competing for their jobs this week. Surprisingly, Arizona is the best bet in Week 17, going 8-3 ATS in the season finale since 2001.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 41)

The Seahawks are in the postseason but can clinch the NFC West title with a victory over St. Louis and a loss for the 49ers. Seattle is coming off an impressive beating of San Francisco at home in Week 16, improving to 7-0 SU and ATS inside CenturyLink Field. The Rams haven’t been great on the road and now visit the toughest venue in the NFL. St. Louis is winless in its last seven trips to Seattle and has been outscored 199-76 in those games. The Rams are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings overall with the Seahawks. St. Louis is 4-0-1 SU and 5-0 ATS versus NFC West rivals this season.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5, 46)

Adrian Peterson’s pursuit of the single-season rushing record is on the back burner with the Vikings’ playoff hopes resting on a win at home in Week 17. Minnesota, which has won three in a row SU and ATS, has lost five straight meetings with Green Bay (1-4 ATS). The Packers clinched the NFC North title but can earn the No. 2 seed in the conference with a win in the finale. That bye week could be crucial for a banged-up roster. The Packers could have WR Jordy Nelson back in action this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10, 46)

The Patriots are cheering for the Colts and Chiefs Sunday, as a win over Miami and a Houston loss would end up giving New England the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a Denver loss would insure the No. 2 seed. Bill Belichick may want to run up the score early in order to give his starters some down time before the postseason. Miami has lost five in a row to New England (2-3 ATS) and has been dismal on the road this year. The Dolphins are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS away from Miami and now travel to chilly Gillette Stadium, where the temperatures will dip below 20 degrees with a chance of snow Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 48)

These NFC East rivals play for all the marbles Sunday night. A win by either team earns the division crowns and a postseason ticket. Dallas had a three-game winning streak snapped in an overtime loss to New Orleans Sunday while Washington extended its successful stretch to 6-0 SU and ATS since a bye in Week 10. The Cowboys not only fight a classic rival but also the elements Sunday. The temperature is expected to be in the low 30s in D.C. and Dallas is just 4-11 SU in games played in sub-40 degree weather over the past 20 seasons. The Redskins defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and have covered in five straight games versus “America’s Team”.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 17
By JASON LOGAN

Each week we take a look at some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL in order to find hidden betting value. Here are three mismatches you may not have considered when capping the Week 17 board:

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5, 54)

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton vs. Saints’ susceptibility to dual-threats

Cam Newton had a big part in the Saints’ dismal start to the season. He combined for 324 yards and two touchdowns in Carolina’s 35-27 win over New Orleans in Week 2. That QB combo of pass and run has plagued the Saints, watching dual-threats like Robert Griffin III, Michael Vick, Colin Kaepernick and Newton do damage through the air and on the ground. Newton is red-hot heading into Week 17, helping the Panthers win three in a row SU and ATS. He’s compiled 871 total yards and seven combined touchdowns during that span.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+7, 46.5)

Texan’s tumble vs. Inspired Colts

The Colts shocked the world, not only making the playoffs following a two-win season but also doing so without their head coach and emotional leader on the sidelines for most of the year. Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano is set to return this weekend for the first time since being diagnosed and treated for leukemia on September 26. That peak in emotion is a stark contrast to the mood in Houston right now. The Texans have lost two of their last three games and could find themselves sliding as far back to No. 3 in the AFC if they lose to a jacked-up Colts squad Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 48)

Cowboys’ climate control vs. Washington winter

Despite the recent dump of snow and ice in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, the Cowboys are not used to the winter weather. Head coach Jason Garrett was forced to bring practice inside this week due to the conditions, but admittedly wanted to play outside to prepare his players for the environment they’re expected to face at FedEx Field Sunday night. The forecast in D.C. is calling for temperatures in the low 30s. Dallas is just 4-11 SU when playing in sub-40 degree weather over the past 20 years. Its last SU win in the cold was a 17-0 road victory over Washington as 7-point favorites in Week 16 2009. The thermometer read 37 degrees that Sunday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

Dallas at Washington

The Redskins look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games against Dallas. Washington is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Redskins favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30 Time Posted: 12:00 p.m. EST (12/26)

Game 301-302: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 126.929; Buffalo 126.993 Dunkel Line: Even; 42 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 39 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: Miami at New England (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 133.093; New England 145.612 Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: New England by 10; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New England (-10); Under

Game 305-306: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.262; Cincinnati 136.088 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 44 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 41 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 307-308: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.481; Pittsburgh 133.167 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 35 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 309-310: Houston at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 136.397; Indianapolis 128.003 Dunkel Line: Houston by 8 1/2; 43 Vegas Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.324; Tennessee 128.863 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 9 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 126.476; NY Giants 130.988 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+7 1/2); Over

Game 315-316: Dallas at Washington (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.004; Washington 138.157 Dunkel Line: Washington by 6; 46 Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 50 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Under

Game 317-318: Chicago at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.177; Detroit 132.120 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 48 Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Over

Game 319-320: Green Bay at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.563; Minnesota 132.130 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under

Game 321-322: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.549; Atlanta 140.547 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 17; 38 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 323-324: Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.370; New Orleans 132.828 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 54 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+5 1/2); Over

Game 325-326: Kansas City at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 122.574; Denver 137.006 Dunkel Line: Denver by 14 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Denver by 17; 42 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+17); Over

Game 327-328: Oakland at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.503; San Diego 137.082 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 15 1/2; 38 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.599; San Francisco 139.614 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14; 43 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 17; 38 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+17); Over

Game 331-332: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.510; Seattle 149.603 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 22; 37 Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 17 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 139-88 (.612)
ATS: 111-123 (.474)
ATS Vary Units: 462-647 (.417)
Over/Under: 112-124 (.475)
Over/Under Vary Units: 406-388 (.511)

Sunday, December 30, 2012
ATLANTA 35, Tampa Bay 15
BUFFALO 23, N.Y. Jets 19
CINCINNATI 23, Baltimore 19
Chicago 24, DETROIT 21
TENNESSEE 26, Jacksonville 17
Houston 24, INDIANAPOLIS 22
MINNESOTA 25, Green Bay 23
NEW ENGLAND 29, Miami 17
NEW ORLEANS 30, Carolina 23
N.Y. GIANTS 32, Philadelphia 19
PITTSBURGH 21, Cleveland 15
WASHINGTON 33, Dallas 24
SAN DIEGO 27, Oakland 16
SAN FRANCISCO 32, Arizona 9
SEATTLE 28, St. Louis 13
DENVER 32, Kansas City 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

Early Bird - Chicago / Detroit Over 44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Coach Thompson's International Club, Inc

Week 16

( Hot Games To Bet: Dallas +3.5, St. Louis +10.5, and Detroit +3 )

Detroit - +3 - 5% Of Bankroll

Baltimore - +1 - 5% Of Bankroll

St. Louis - +10.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

New England - -10 - 5% Of Bankroll

Tampa Bay - ( Pending ) - 5% Of Bankroll

Kansas City - +16 - 5% Of Bankroll

Dallas - +3.5 - 5% Of Bankroll

WEEK 16 ( 4-9-1 )
WEEK 15 ( 6-5 )
WEEK 14 ( 7-4 )
WEEK 13 ( 6-3-1 )
WEEK 12 ( 5-3-2 )
WEEK 11 ( 5-4 )
WEEK 10 ( 7-3 )
WEEK 9 ( 2-4 )
WEEK 8 ( 8-1 )
WEEK 7 ( 4-4 )
WEEK 6 ( 4-0 )
WEEK 5 ( 3-5 )
WEEK 4 ( 5-2 )
WEEK 3 ( 3-3 )

Grand Total ( 69 - 50 - 4 )
Total Winning % Before Week 17 = +117.5%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Biosports

NFL 51-33 61% YTD

Since it's week 17, things can be kinda weird. So all, but listed in order of value from.

NE Patriots -10

SF 49ers -16.5

Washington Redskins -3.5

GB Packers -3.5

Philadelphia Eagles +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Big Ticket Sunday! Mega-Shocker: Wrong Team Favored!

20* Indianapolis Colts

100% Perfect NFL Run: Patriots - Dolphins Mega-Moneymaker!

10* Miami Dolphins

Teddy's Sunday Night TV Total: Cowboys @ Redskins $$$

10* OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NEWSLETTERS

Winning Points

Best Bets
Houston Texans
GB Packers

Preferred
Carolina Panthers
St. Louis Rams

Sports Reporter

Best Bets
SD Chargers
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks

Nelly's Green Sheet

Rating's 5 to 1
RATING 5 DALLAS (+3)
RATING 4 SAN FRANCISCO (-15)
RATING 3 PHILADELPHIA (+9)
RATING 2 NY JETS (+3)
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (+4)

CKO

Priority Picks
11* Seattle Seahawks
10* Dallas Cowboys

Gold Sheet

Key Releases
NE Patriots
SF 49ers
OVER - Cowboys/ Redskins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus Free Pick : Bengals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Wash

3* Cincy, Philly, Seattle

2* San Fran, under in Denv/KC, Houst

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Xpertpicks


SUNDAY


• Play Cleveland +6 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---50% OF
YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 1:00 PM EST


Pittsburgh has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 11
of the last 14 games against the spread after having lost four of the
last five games. Pittsburgh has lost 6 of the last 7 games against
the spread after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight
games and they are allowing an average of 24 points a game on defense
over the last three games.




• Play Carolina +5.5 over New Orleans (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---40% OF
YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 1:00 PM EST


Carolina has won and covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games and
they have also covered the spread in 11 of the last 16 games vs. New
Orleans on the road. Carolina has covered the spread in 4 consecutive
games as a road underdog and they are averaging over 26 points a game
on offense over the last three games.




• Play Miami +10 over New England (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 4:30 PM EST


Miami has covered the spread in 6 consecutive games when revenging a
loss by seven points or less and they have also covered the spread in
9 of the last 12 road games when the total posted is greater than 45.5
points. Miami has covered the spread in 13 of the last 20 games as a
road underdog and they are only allowing an average of 13 points a
game on defense over the last three games.




• Play Dallas +3 over Washington (TOP NFL FOOTBALL PLAY)---25% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:30 PM EST


Washington has lost 58 of the last 92 games against the spread when
playing as a home favorite and they have also lost 11 of the last 14
games against the spread after having won six or seven of the last
eight games. Washington has lost 15 of the last 21 games coming off a
road game and they are allowing an average of 24 points a game on
defense this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

NFL SELECTIONS

3-Unit Play. Take #306 Cincinnati (-2) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Marvin Lewis has gone out of his way to say the Bengals are going to play their starters. He pointed to the last two times that he rested his starters in Week 17 prior to a Bengals playoff game and Cincinnati losing said playoff game the next week. So he is mixing it up. Baltimore is on the other end. They are saying they aren't going to rest their starters, but I think this team is looking for any excuse to pull the veterans on their offensive line and defense, as well as key offensive players like Ray Rice and some of the wideouts. If the Bengals get up early I think the Ravens will pack it in a bit. I think if both of these teams were playing straight up in a winner-take-all situation the Bengals would win right now. But the fact that they might have a motivational advantage, as well as the home field edge, makes me lean their way.

2-Unit Play. Take #304 New England (-10) over Miami (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Tom Brady was pissed at New England's effort last week in Jacksonville. And that dud came one week after they fell on their faces in the first half against San Francisco. Tom was not happy. By all accounts, Tom was dropping F-bombs and getting in people's faces in the locker room down in Jacksonville after that game. When Tom talks - people listen. Add that to the fact that Bill Belichick has shown a propensity for Week 17 blowouts and the Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 17 games. Several of those blowouts have come at Miami's expense. The Dolphins maxed out last week in a win over Buffalo. They have to face an ornery Patriots team this week in Foxboro, where temperatures will be below freezing. Something tells me the boys from South Beach won't be cool with that.

2-Unit Play. Take #309 Houston (-6.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Look, anyone that has read anything that I have written this year knows I think that Andrew Luck is a fraud and the Colts really kind of suck. I believe that. And I think they are going to be exposed over the next two weeks. Houston has something to play for. They were bounced around by the Vikings last week and they know that if they lose this game they could lose the No. 1 seed. That could mean having to fly up to Denver for a rematch with Peyton Manning later in the postseason. It could also mean a Divisional Round rematch with New England. The Texans don't want either of those things to happen. So they are going to win this game. And they are going to do so against a young Colts team that has nothing to play for. I also think that the Colts coaching situation is going to be a distraction for this team and is going to knock them out of their mojo. And then there is the fact that the Colts have basically been pathetic against th few decent teams they have faced this year. I think all of this sets up pretty well for the road chalk and I think Houston will stretch its legs with a big second half, putting this one away.

2-Unit Play. Take #315 Dallas (+3.5) over Washington (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
It is very easy to expect the Cowboys to choke in this game. It's what they do, right? But for some reason I think they are going to win this game. It is nothing against Washington. You've gotta be kind of crazy to bet against them right now. They are right there with Seattle and Denver as the hottest teams around. But there are still just some things about them that don't quite add up. And I really think that Dallas is just so desperate to get this win that they will be able to exploit Washington's weaknesses. Dallas is banged up and they are bound to fail. But I don't know why, but I just get a sense that they are going to bust out here and stun the public by playing great and winning this one by double-digits. The road team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and the underdog is a stunning 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. That is 15 years worth of underdog. I think it continues.

2-Unit Play. Take #318 Detroit (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
The Lions are going to win this game because of course they are. The Lions are awful. They are a bad football team and a terrible organization. One of the great myths right now is that Detroit has "so much talent". They don't. Besides Calvin Johnson and some defensive linemen this is a really below average team. But they do just enough right to be a threat to a Bears team that has reached the intellectual end of its coaching rope. I don't have faith in Mike Tice or Lovie Smith, and the fact is that Chicago is playing without its heart-and-soul in Brian Urlacher as well as the fact the Bears have been decimated by injury at safety (a crucial part of their Cover-2). The Bears don't protect the passer and Jay Cutler isn't exactly a big game guy. So all of this is setting up for an upset by a pathetic team that serves no purpose right now other than to end its rivals season. I think Detroit will win this one, but we'll take the points because there is no way the Bears are going to win this one going away.

2-Unit Play. Take #319 Green Bay (-3) over Minnesota (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

2-Unit Play. Take #329 Arizona (+16.5) over San Francisco (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

2-Unit Play. Take #331 St. Louis (+10.5) over Seattle (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

1-Unit Play. Take #326 Denver (-16) over Kansas City (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

This Week's Totals:
3-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 41.0 St. Louis at Seattle (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Note: This was going to be a 5-Unit NFL Total of the Week, but I backed it down. I just cannot find info on how much Seattle is going to play their starters. There has been no reporting on it that I trust. So I am not going to blindly throw out a play on this one without having all of the fact. Ah, the joy of Week 17.

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 49.0 Dallas at Washington (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.5 Green Bay at Minnesota