1-1-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines


Total Line for 01/01/2013
(Lost last 2 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Lakers : u202.5
Cost: -110

Run Line for 01/01/2013
(Won last 2 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Denver Nuggets : +1
Cost: -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

College Bowl Game Of Year
200 Units
So Carolina (-5) over Michigan

1:00 PM -- Outback Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

Outback Bowl
Played at Raymond James Stadium (65,890), Grass, in Tampa, Florida
College Bowl Game Of The Year
South Carolina (10-2) -5 over Michigan (8-4)
Prediction: South Carolina by 13-14
Starting Time: 1:05
TV: ESPN

Comments: There is no question in my mind this game will be all about defense. Michigan allows just 311.7 yards (ranked 10th of 120 teams) and 18.75 points (16th) per game. South Carolina gives up 312.25 yards (12th) and 17.42 points (12th) per game. Of equal importance to these dominating defensive numbers is the matchup of South Carolina’s defensive front vs. Michigan’s offensive line, and therein lays the factor that will win this one for the Gamecocks. There is no better defensive front in the country than that of South Carolina. It is led by the country’s best down lineman, sophomore defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, who is ranked second in the nation in sacks (13) and tackles for loss (21.5), and he is just the beginning. Eight Gamecocks players have at least two sacks this season and 11 have two or more tackles for losses. To say the defensive front is outstanding is an under-statement. It is about as good as it gets and it will be facing a Michigan offensive line that is not as talented, athletic or quick and has been quite inconsistent all season. Now, factor into the equation the Wolverines very predictable vanilla offense and everything points to a long afternoon for Michigan. Few defenses are as fast to the ball as that of South Carolina. You can look for South Carolina to come with the same ball-control plan it used in its last game of the season, a 27-17 win at Clemson. In that one, the Gamecocks held the ball for almost 40 of the 60 minutes of playing time and that included all but six minutes and 31 seconds of the second half. For the record, USC had 4.5 sacks in that one. Connor Shaw, who missed the Clemson game with a foot injury that has haunted him all season, will again start at quarterback. If he has problems and can’t go the distance, it is of note his backup, Dylan Thompson completed 23-of-41 passes and three touchdowns against Clemson. As I said, everything points to a long afternoon for Michigan.

Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. (Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL) Game-time temperature: Near 75.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - HAPPY NEW YEAR

4* BEST BET = SOUTH CAROLINA
3* = NORTHWESTERN
3* = NO. ILLINOIS
2* = GEORGIA
2* = "UNDER" on WISCONSIN/STANFORD

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB IUPUI at MARYLAND

Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (MARYLAND) after 10 or more consecutive wins.
106-57 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.0% 43.3 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% 2.7 units )

CBB HOFSTRA at FLA ATLANTIC

Play On - Any team (FLA ATLANTIC) after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less against opponent after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games.
1937-1515 since 1997. ( 56.1% -37.3 units )
51-44 this year. ( 53.7% -6.7 units )

CBB YALE at IOWA ST.

Play Against - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (IOWA ST) after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher.
49-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.0% 27.0 units )
0-3 this year. ( 0.0% -3.3 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bankroll sports

4-3 yesterday 5-1 last 6 10*s winner on tulsa +2 yesterday 2 losses on smaller rated basketball plays yesterday

today's card

10* fla state -14 cfb
5* miss st +1.5 cfb
5* mich wolverines +5.5
4* wisky/stanford over 47.5 cfb
3* neb cornhuskers +9.5 cfb
3* marquette -6.5 cbb
2* lakers -9 nba

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA SACRAMENTO at DETROIT

Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points off a close home win by 3 points or less, on Tuesday nights.
34-11 since 1997. ( 75.6% 21.9 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NBA LA CLIPPERS at DENVER

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or less.
144-86 since 1997. ( 62.6% 54.6 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% 3.0 units )

NBA LA CLIPPERS at DENVER

Play Against - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (LA CLIPPERS) excellent team - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% on the season, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
79-39 since 1997. ( 66.9% 36.1 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Akmen

Northwestern under
Michigan over
Stanford

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Best Bets

Purdue +17 (4 UNITS)

Northwestern -1 (5 UNITS)

South Carolina -4.5 (5 UNITS)

Georgia -8 (5 UNITS)

Stanford -5 (4 UNITS)

N. Iliinois +14.5 (5 UNITS)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVID BANKS

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal
The first BCS bowl of the season is a good old fashioned Rose Bowl with the Big Ten Champion facing the Pac-12 Champion, as the Wisconsin Badgers (8-5, 6-7 ATS) take on the Stanford Cardinal (11-2, 8-5 ATS) at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA at 5:00 ET on ESPN. The traditional conference affiliations for this bowl have not always been in tact since the BCS came into existence, but things worked out this season. Stanford handed Oregon its only loss this season and then beat UCLA twice to win the Pac-12, while the five-loss Badgers advanced to the Big Ten Championship Game despite finishing third in their division behind two ineligible bowl teams in Ohio State and Penn State, and yet annihilated Nebraska 70-31.

The Badgers struggled offensively early in the season while having some close calls vs. mediocre competition and they lost their final two regular season games to aforementioned Ohio State and Penn State. However, Wisconsin certainly seized the opportunity that was gift-wrapped for the Badgers by rushing for an incredulous 539 yards vs. the Cornhuskers, with last year's Heisman Trophy finalist Montee Ball and freshman Melvin Gordon each going over 200 yards! Thus, a team that finished unranked on the final BCS Standings advanced to perhaps the most prestigious bowl game of all. Wisconsin ended the year 12th in the country in rushing with 237.8 yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry, but the Big Ten was not particularly strong this season and the Badgers do not figure to have their usual rushing success vs. the very stout Stanford run defense. Therein lays the problem, as Wisconsin used three starting quarterbacks this season and none of them were effective passing the ball. The Badgers ranked 115th in the county in passing offense with a scant 162.6 yards per game, so they do not seem equipped to take advantage of the Stanford secondary.

Nobody ran on Stanford this year as the Cardinal finished third in the country in rushing defense, allowing only 86.9 yards per game on a measly 2.9 yards per carry. After keeping the speedy Oregon running game in check, stopping a more physical style Wisconsin rushing attack may not seem so daunting for an even more physical Stanford defense. The Cardinal have also been toughened by playing the 16th toughest schedule in the country according to the Sagarin Ratings, and Stanford is a fantastic 6-1 vs. teams in the Sagarin Top 30 with the only loss coming in overtime on the road vs. undefeated and top ranked Notre Dame. Offensively, the Cardinal have a solid running attack of their own led by Stepfan Taylor, who rushed for 1442 on 4.8 yards per carry with 12 rushing touchdowns and two more touchdowns on pass receptions.

Stanford is 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 games overall, including 10-1 ATS in the last 11 non-conference games. Wisconsin is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game. Not today!

Pick: WISCONSIN BADGERS+6

LEAN SHEET

UNDER - Purdue / Oklahoma St.
Northwestern
South Carolina
Northern Illinois

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Redd

50 Dime selection on the Florida State Seminoles against the Northern Illinois Huskies. As I release this play at 5:20am Pacific here in Vegas the line on Florida State is -14 1/2 in Vegas and offshore.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

New Year's Day Bowl Betting Trends and Stats
by Marc Lawrence

January 1 signifies a new year and with it a bevy of college football bowl games.

Let’s take a look at what’s trending for the upcoming New Year’s Day bowl card.

Stats as of 1990 unless specified.

Bowling for dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends for each of the five major bowl games on Jan. 1:

• Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last 12. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

• Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed in each of the last two years, snapping a four-year run by the dogs.

• Orange Bowl: The favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

• Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins, six have been in straight-up fashion.

• Rose Bowl: Pac-10/12 teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games versus Big Ten opponents.

The good, the bad and the ugly

Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win.

Bad numbers… Big Ten bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers… Big Ten bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus Pac-10/12 opponents.

Coach me up

• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.

• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SU/ATS loss.

• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.

• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.

• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.

New Year’s babies

Favorites on New Year’s Day bowl games have been out of this world dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more points per game on the season. They zoom to 31-14 ATS in those situations.

Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to follow suit on Jan. 1.

New resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making - then breaking - new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.

The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.

Stat of New Year's Day

The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Write-Up

Tuesday, January 1

Hot Teams
-- Portland won seven of its last nine games (3-8 as AU).
-- Detroit won four of its last five games (3-5 as HF). Kings won three of last four games (5-8 as AU).
-- Hawks won four of last five games. (7-6 vs spread on road).
-- Clippers won last 17 games, covered seven of last nine. Denver won its last seven home games.
-- Lakers won six of last seven games (3-6 last nine as HF).

Cold Teams
-- Wizards lost nine of last ten games (5-7-2 vs sprad at home). Dallas lost last six games, with five of six by 10+ points (7-9 vs spread road).
-- Knicks are 3-4 in their last seven games (8-5 as HF, 1-4 in last five).
-- Hornets lost 12 of last 14 games, but won two of last three (4-10-1 vs spread at home).
-- 76ers lost eight of last ten games (2-6 last eight as AU).

Totals
-- Five of last seven Dallas road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Portland games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Last four Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Clipper games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Philly games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Hawks are 6-1 vs spread if they played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Write-Up

Tuesday, January 1

-- Yale lost first two games of its western swing, by 10 at Nevada, 16 at St Mary's; Bulldogs turn ball over 23.3% of time, lost by 26-16 in only two games vs top 100 teams. Iowa State is 8-0 vs teams not in top 100, with six of eight wins by 15+ points. Cyclones have eight days off after this, then start league play vs Kansas- they've played schedule #276.
-- Florida Atlantic lost four of last five games, getting upset in last game at UL-Monroe; Owls turn ball over 23.8% of time, make just 41.1% of 2-pointers- their last three games with Hofstra were all decided by 4 or less points, with FAU winning last two, by 2-4 points. Hofstra lost last seven games, with six of seven opponents not even in the top 100.
-- Road team won last five UConn-Marquette games; Huskies won last two visits here, by 8-11 points. This is first true road game for UConn squad that is 2-2 on neutral courts, losing to NC State by 4, by 8 to New Mexico. Marquette is 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing at Florida by 33, by point to Butler on a neutral floor. First league game for both sides.
-- Maryland is #318 team in experience that is 11-1 playing 7th-easiest schedule in country; Terps are 7-0 vs teams not in top 200, winning by 22-9-17-32-15-33-29 points- they start ACC play Saturday. IUPUI is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 20-32-37 points; Jaguars are 1-6 on the road, with all six losses by 20+ points.
-- Clemson beat Citadel by 23-15 points last two years; Tigers play first ACC game Saturday vs Florida State- they're 5-1 vs teams not in the top 200, with four of five wins by 15+ points. Citadel lost its last six games, with losses by 40-32 points in their last two games; they're coached by Chuck Driesell, son of Lefty. First game in nine days for Clemson.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

SOUTH CAROLINA
nebraska

[Can'tPickAWinner]

big al

5* mich