1-2-13

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PAUL LEINER

100* Over 126 Nebraska/Ohio State

50* St Johns +6

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Gold Sheet

Florida 26 - Louisville 20
This is the third meeting, but the first since 1992, when UF prevailed 31-17 in “The Swamp.” The Gators are seeking their fifth straight BCS victory. Louisville, which is “bowling” for the third straight term, is playing in a BCS bowl for the first time since the 2006 Orange. But what makes this matchup fascinating is the reunion of Card mentor Charlie Strong, who served as the UF defensive coordinator from 2002-09 (part of two national titles). Strong, who showed rarely-seen loyalty by recently turning down a lucrative offer from Tennessee, was mentioned as a candidate to replace Urban Meyer in Gainesville after the 2010 season. After a ho-hum 7-6 campaign LY, UF finished an eyepopping 11-1 in 2012, with its only blemish a 17-9 setback vs. rival Georgia, when the Gators committed a ghastly six TOs. L’ville (moving soon to the ACC) started 9-0 before back-to-back losses vs. Syracuse & UConn. But the Cards rallied from 14-3 halftime deficit in the reg-season finale vs. Rutgers to pull out a 20-17 win and a share of the Big East crown.
The centerpiece of UF’s run-oriented attack (27 ppg) is punishing RB Mike Gillislee (1104 YR, 10 TDs), while fleet-footed soph QB Jeff Driskel (64.8%, 11 TDs, only 3 picks; 409 YR) effectively ran read option plays and designed bootlegs out of the pocket. But the passing game (114th) was only a passing fancy with Driskel, who was prone to scrambling or getting sacked before plays developed downfield. First-year o.c. Brent Pease had no legit deep threat, as 6-6 TE Jordan Reed led the team with 552 receiving yards.

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Playbook Marc Lawrence

SUGAR BOWL
Mercedes-Benz Superdome • New Orleans, LA
Florida over Louisville by 10
The ‘What-If?’ Bowl features two squads that could very well have fi nished
the season undefeated. The Gators opened 2012 with seven straight wins
before suffering an 8-point loss to Georgia, their lone defeat of the year.
The Cardinals fl irted with an unbeaten campaign even longer, winning their
fi rst nine contests before dropping two of their fi nal three games. Solid
defensive performances against a tougher schedule (UF allowed 283 yards
and 13 PPG compared to Louie’s 345 yards and 24 points) means we can’t
entertain the notion of Florida losing outright here but the Kentuckians
do own a legitimate shot at ringing the register. For openers, the Cards
are preparing with a renewed enthusiasm after well-liked head coach
Charlie Strong spurned a serious offer from Tennessee and chose to remain
at Louisville. Meanwhile, the Gators could be a little fl at after whipping
Florida State in the season fi nale only to come up just short of reaching the
Big One (No. 3 in regular season BCS rankings). There’s no question Florida
has shown signifi cant improvement in Will Muschamp’s 2nd year at the
helm, fi nishing with a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS record against fellow bowlers in
2012 compared to last year’s 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS effort. Muschamp himself
boasts a solid 8-2 ATS mark when playing off consecutive wins and the
Gators have won and covered fi ve of their last seven games after battling
the Seminoles. The problem, though, is the mighty SEC’s surprising lack of
pointspread success against the much-maligned Big East. Not only are Big
East schools a wallet-fi lling 15-4 ATS in their last 19 tries as dogs against
the SEC, they’ve also won and covered eight of the last nine bowl games
between the two leagues. The Cardinals have enjoyed similar results versus
the southeasterners, going 9-5 SUATS overall, including 4-1 ATS as dogs. In
addition, 17 returning starter bowl dogs of 4 or more points have scrapped
their way to a 16-9-1 ATS log. Yes, the Gators have more talent on both
sides of the ball but we think Louisville’s players will reward their head
coach for staying put with a ‘Strong’ effort on the national stage tonight.

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Pointwise

SUGAR BOWL
The main sidebar, as far as this contest is concerned, is Charlie Strong. This
is his 3rd year at the helm of the Cardinals of Louisville, taking over a team
with a combined 15-21 record the previous 3 years, directly on the heels of 9
consecutive winning years, including marks of 11-2 ('01), 11-1 ('04), 12-1 ('06),
winding up those campaigns with bowl wins, the last coming in the '06 Orange.
Thus, this school is knee-deep in successful tradition. So when Bobby Petrino
left for the Atlanta Falcons in '07, the Cards turned to Steve Kragthorpe, & the
above dismal 3-yr run. So bye-bye, Steve, & hello, Charlie, non other than the
defensive coordinator of the Gators of Florida. His acquisition has resulted in
a steady 'Ville improvement, including this year's 9-0 start, which had the Cards
at #10 in the nation, before a resounding 45-26 loss to Syracuse (278-48 RY
deficit), followed by an OT setback vs UConn, despite a 23-12 FD edge. Ranking
just 93rd in rushing, they rely just about entirely on QB Bridgewater, who has
been spectacular: 69%, 3,452 yds, 25/7. A 10-2 SU log, but minus 18½ pts
ATS for the season. As far as the Gators are concerned, they're just shadows
of their former offensive giant status (104th & 74 in total & scoring), but they
enter at #5 in TO ratio, as well as 5th & 3rd in total & scoring "D", thereby more
than offsetting their offensive mediocrity. Their only misstep came in a 6-3 TO
deficit loss vs arch-rival Georgia. RB Gillislee is their "go-to" man (1,104 yds),
but his 4.7 ypr stat hardly strikes fear in opponents' hearts, while QB Driskel
blows hot-&-cold, altho he is a sporadic overland threat. The 2-TD spot seems
a bit much for a team with a 17-17 FDpg split. Gators win it, but not by enough.
RATING: 6: Florida 30 - LOUISVILLE 20

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Pointwise

NBA

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2 SCORE
(7:05) CLEVELAND CAVS 93 - Sacramento Kings 85
(7:05) INDIANA PACERS 95 - Washington Wizards 89
(7:05) Portland Blazers 103 - TORONTO RAPTORS 102
(7:05) Chicago Bulls 91 - ORLANDO MAGIC 89
(7:35) Dallas Mavericks 118 - MIAMI HEAT 110
(7:35) Memphis Grizzlies 93 - BOSTON CELTICS 87
(8:05) San Antonio Spurs 114 - MILWAUKEE BUCKS 104
(8:05) OKLAHOMA CITY 111 - Brooklyn Nets 98
(8:05) HOUSTON ROCKETS 94 - New Orleans 83
(9:05) Philadelphia 76ers 102 - PHOENIX SUNS 101
(9:05) UTAH JAZZ 103 - Minnesota Timberwolves 98
(10:35) GOLDEN STATE 101 - Los Angeles Clippers 100

BEST BETS: CLEVELAND (4), DALLAS (3), SAN ANTONIO, OKLA CITY

CBB

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2 SCORE
(6:00) KENTUCKY 90 - Eastern Michigan 59 (ESPNU)

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Sports Reporter

SUGAR BOWL
Superdome – New Orleans, LA
FLORIDA over LOUISVILLE by 18

Louisville brings the 100th-ranked rushing offense to the field against the Florida Gators’ defense, a SEC-worthy unit with a good front four and good depth. Since Louisville ran for only 127 yards per game this season, the Cardinals aren’t likely to get much more than that, and could get a loss less. So, will Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater be able to offset the lack of rushing production with a big passing game? Maybe, but we wouldn’t necessarily bet on it. Bridgewater’s 69% completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, 25-7 TD-INT ratio and 298 passing yards per game are very attractive numbers. But the Florida defense has allowed only 186 passing yards per game and only 5 TD passes this season, while intercepting 19 passes. The Gators held Johnny Manziel and the Texas A&M offense to 17 points on the road; they intercepted four-year starting QB Aaron Murray of Georgia (31-8 TD-INT) three times; intercepted senior E.J. Manuel of Florida State four times. Bridgewater is a sophomore. He still has mistakes to make, and the Florida defense should bring it out in him. Remember something: Bridgewater threw 3 INTs in Louisville’s bowl loss to NC State last season. Meanwhile, Louisville, besides being 100th-ranked in rushing offense, allowed 174 rushing yards per game in Big East play. The only team in the Big East that average as many rushing yards
per game as Louisville allowed was Temple (201), and those were volume yards because Temple couldn’t pass. Florida rushed for 194 yards per game, and capped the regular season by rushing for 244 yards (5.2 per carry) against Florida State’s then-#2 ranked run defense. Florida has a 9-yard net edge in punt returns vs. Louisville, and Louisville’s 17.5 yards per kickoff return was sixth-lowest in the nation. Good field position will be hard to come by for Louisville. Florida has been an especially strong team after the first quarter this season, outscoring opponents 89-37 in the second quarter, 77-49 in the third, and putting the hammer down by a 115-29 count in the fourth. FLORIDA, 31-13.

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Winning Points

SUGAR BOWL (at New Orleans, LA)
Florida over Louisville by 10
Louisville mentor Charlie Strong has a long history with Florida. Strong worked under Ron Zook and Urban Meyer and was Florida’s interim HC in the 2004 Peach Bowl. His current squad opened 9-0 and then broke a two-game slide in the finale, overcoming Rutgers 20-17. In that game, QB Teddy Bridgewater threw for 263 yards despite wrist and ankle injuries and the UL “D” held Rutgers to 9 first downs and only 45 plays from scrimmage. Bridgewater has thrown 25 TD passes this season while completing 69 percent of his throws, but he will be throwing into the teeth of one of the nation’s best defenses. Florida has 19 interceptions and has allowed only 5 TD passes (only Boise State has allowed fewer). If not for a passel of turnovers in their annual battle with Georgia, the Gators could easily be 12-0.
However, Florida was more often the recipient of good bounces and their record is incongruent with their offensive production. Although Florida opened #23 in the AP preseason poll, this was widely considered a rebuilding year (no player was named to the preseason all-SEC team) in the wake of a 7-6 campaign in 2011. The bottom line is that although we aren’t enamored of Louisville, the points are tempting in what shapes up as a defensive struggle. FLORIDA 24-14.

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Winning Points

NBA

**PREFERRED
*Cleveland over Sacramento by 14
The Cavaliers have failed to cover the past three times they’ve been chalk, but the
Kings ranked last in the league in assists, played last night and have been without
Tyreke Evans (check status).
CLEVELAND 101-87.

*Indiana over Washington by 10
Indiana has beaten Washington eight straight times, including 96-89 on the road a
month ago despite missing 16 of 19 3-point shots.
INDIANA 95-85.

*Toronto over Portland by 4
This is the Raptors’ first game back from a three-game road swing, but Toronto has
been idle since Saturday so the concentration should be there. The Trail Blazers were
4-8 ATS during their first 12 road matchups.
TORONTO 101-97.

Chicago over *Orlando by 1
Orlando was just 2-6 ATS in its first eight home games, while the Bulls own a winning road record.
CHICAGO 92-91.

**PREFERRED
*Miami over Dallas by 18
The Heat still haven’t gotten over the Mavericks beating them in the NBA finals two
seasons ago. Because of that the Heat treats their matchups against Dallas with lots of
intensity. Miami swept both games against Dallas last season winning by an average of
18.5 points and the Heat crushed the Mavericks on the road, 110-95, on Dec. 20.
MIAMI 111-93.

*Boston over Memphis by 3
The Celtics shouldn’t lack for energy having been off since Sunday. Memphis had has
failed to cover in four of its last five road contests.
BOSTON 96-93.

San Antonio over *Milwaukee by 6
Milwaukee fell for the 16th time in its last 17 visits to San Antonio during the team’s
first meeting on Dec. 5, losing 110-99. The Spurs have too much offense for the Bucks
averaging nine more points per game than Milwaukee.
SAN ANTONIO 104-98.

*Oklahoma City over Brooklyn by 10
The Nets entered the last week of December having covered only two of their past 10.
The Thunder buried the Nets in Brooklyn, taking advantage of Brook Lopez’s absence
to hit better than 60 percent of their field goals.
OKLAHOMA 109-99.

*Houston over New Orleans by 9
The Hornets got the cover in their first matchup in Houston, coming from 21 points
down to lose 100-96 back in mid-November. Since then the Hornets have regressed
losing 20 of their next 22 games.
HOUSTON 104-95.

*Phoenix over Philadelphia by 5
Phoenix was on a four-game covering run at home through Dec. 22 and catch the
76ers playing in their sixth road contest in 11 days.
PHOENIX 105-100.

*Utah over Minnesota by 8
The Jazz were 9-2 SU through their first 11 home games, 7-4 ATS. The Timberwolves
have lost in their last five trips to Salt Lake City covering just once during this span
and may be missing Kevin Love (check status), who suffered an eye injury on Dec. 20.
UTAH 104-96.

*Golden State over Los Angeles Clippers by 2
Golden State last was in action on Saturday when it met the Clippers. The Warriors
dealt the Clippers their first loss of the season, 114-110, back on Nov. 3.
GOLDEN STATE 109-107.

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PSYCHIC
(1-5)

4 unit Louisville +14 (MAJOR)

WIZARD
(1-20)

10 unit Louisville +14

Kenny Nguyen
(1-50)

35 unit Miami Heat

JT WALKER
(all units same)

Drexel (CBB)

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SuperSportsGroup NCAAF
PICK: Florida -14 Game
PICK: Florida -7.5 1H
PICK: OVER 45.5 Game

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Jimmy Boyd

3* Louisville/Florida Under 46

3* Houston Rockets -9.5
3* Indiana Pacers -10.5

3* Providence +18
3* Nebraska +21
3* Rutgers +16
3* Pennsylvania +21

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RAS
MOST RECENT RELEASE
Rotation 740 Old Dominion (-2.5) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 01/02/13 04:00pm PST Released at: 01/02 8:06am PST


PREVIOUS RELEASES
Rotation 764 Southern Methodist (+5) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 01/02/13 05:00pm PST Released at: 01/02 8:03am PST
Rotation 736 NC-Wilmington (-2) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 01/02/13 04:00pm PST Released at: 01/02 8:00am PST

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Northcoast

Top opinions
Florida -14
Under 46

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Trace Adams


1500♦
Raise the Bar
Sunday Winner #5 of 6


Florida Gators -14

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Robert Ferringo CBB

3 * Illinois -2.5


2 *
Providence +17.5
SMU +4
Boise State -5.5
St. Johns +6.5
Depaul -1.5
Miami -6.5

1 *
Towson +4
Kentucky -26.5
Rutgers +15
Massachusetts -4
Evansville -15
Southern Illinios +1
San Francisco +8.5