1-3-13

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SB Professor College Bowl Picks 1/3
Fiesta Bowl
261. Kansas St. +8

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Hoopsgooroo 1/3
261 Kansas St. +8 @ 8:30p

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ATS LOCK

3 Kansas St

Hoops
5 So Ala
4 L B St.

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nolan fernandez
ncaa f

oregon -8

ncaa b
hawail -2

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Play Title Stephen Nover's College Bowl Game of the Year
Play Selected Point Spread: -8.0/-107
Collin Klein is good, but he's trumped by the many weapons Oregon has. The Ducks have way too much offense for the Wildcats. Oregon is averaging 50.8 points a game. The scary thing is this total could be a lot higher if Ducks coach Chip Kelly ran up scores. Kelly is the NFL's hottest head coaching prospect. This could be his last game with Oregon so the Ducks won't be letting up. Only once did the Ducks fail to score at least 40 points in a game and that was against Stanford, which just held Wisconsin to 14 points in the Rose Bowl. Kansas State is going to need to keep up. I don't see that happening. The Wildcats were held under 30 points four times, including three times in their last seven games. Klein is a better runner than passer. He had only three touchdown passes during his final four games. He was held to under 200 yards passing six times on the season. This limits the Wildcats from coming back if they fall several touchdowns behind.The Ducks have a history of putting up scores early scoring 61 percent of their points during the first half before Kelly eases up on the gas pedal. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is both a good runner and passer with a 30-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the quarterback-rich Pac-12, Mariota was the first-team all conference quarterback. He's backed by a number of talented skill position players, including Kenion Barner, one of the best running backs in the country. Only once in his last six games did Mariota throw an interception. The Ducks, on the other hand, forced an FBS-high 39 turnovers. Oregon is used to playing in pressure-packed bowl games. Kansas State has played in only four bowl games since 2002, losing all four of them, including 29-16 last season to Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl. Klein gained just 42 yards on 24 attempts in that loss.

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Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #560. Take Canisius -5 over Fairfield (Thursday @ 7pm est).

3-Unit Play. #513. Take UW Milwaukee +17.5 over Detroit (Thursday @ 7pm est).

3-Unit Play. #519. Take Troy +11.5 over North Texas (Thursday @ 8pm est)

5-Unit Play. #530. Take Denver -18.5 over Texas State (Thursday @ 9pm est).

Fairfield had beaten this team for more than 9 straight times prior to Canisius finally getting the better of this team last year winning 67-55 on the road as a 4 point underdog. Tom Parrotta led this team last year and they had just 5 wins and Jim Barron has come in and made an immediate impact on this squad. This team reached 5 wins back on December 7th equaling last year's win total in a hurry. Now they sit at 9-4 overall and this is the same team that lost to a top 100 Detroit team on the road by by 5 points, losing to UNLV by 15 points who is a top 25 on the road, beating an excellent Temple team on the road by 10 who is a top 75 team and this is a team who's only losses come to Syracuse, Detroit, UNLV and a top 100 team in Stony Brook. In fact, all four of their losses were against top 100 teams. And now they face a team outside the top 100 in Fairfield and they beat them by 12 on the road and I think the same result will be here today especially as they come off a loss. Look for the result to be the same and look for Canisius to be highly focused entering today. Canisius is also led by two juniors and two seniors whereas Fairfield is led by a freshman and sophomore and that does make an impact in this game. UW-Milwukee lost by 21 points to Wisconsin on the road and that itself is a benchmark and this team lost to a similar Fairfield and Northern Iowa team by 16 and 11 points as well. Both of those teams are in the top 125 which is what Detroit is coming into this game. This team is led by two seniors in Gulley and Harris and a junior in Jordan Aaron. Last year when these two teams met Detroit got the better of this team 58-57 and now UWM looks to get revenge here on the road. Detroit of course is the better team here but I think Detroit will find it hard to get up for this game whereas UWM will be up for this game and given that they play a slower type of game look for this to be more of a half court game and for UW to likely cover here. Whenever we have the ability to get more points on a lower total it is always an option for us especially for a team that will get up to play another team with revenge. Troy does not have many wins this year at just five but Don Maestri's team is one of the best teams in taking care of the ball. This team is a top 5 team when it comes to turnovers and as they play a North Texas team who does not do well against such half-court teams in blowing them out it makes for a decent play here. North Texas beat Southeastern Louisiana 45-40 in a very low scoring half-court style of game and Troy likes to play a similar type of contest here. This team lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by four points and this team is currently 0-3 in conference play as well. Troy will see this as an opportunity to slow the game down which favors them as they are a team that takes great care of the basketball and look for this contest to be a single-digit loss more than anything today as Troy will be much more competitive than most will give credit for as this team is 4-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss and they are 4-1 ATS when they face a team with a winning percentage of less than 40%. Denver could very well rout Texas State tonight. Denver is one of the most exciting teams in the nation and you would never know it. Joe Scott has transformed this team to a top 75 team and at some point some team will come calling because of what he has been able to do this program. Scott's team is now 5-7 but they have played one of the hardest schedules in their conference playing the likes of Stanford, California, Colorado, Southern Mississippi and taking good teams such as Iona to the limit, losing to Colorado State by 7, losing to California by 11, beating a good Mercer team by 29, losing to Wyoming by 10 and beating a good Texas Arlington team by 15 on the road holding that team to 35 total points. Denver is nearly a top 50 defense and they are stout at home in scoring points and as they face Texas State for the first time today look for them to send a quick message as they open up conference play at home and look to go 2-1 in the conference. This is a team that faces Texas State who just comes off 17 point loss to San Jose State at home and a 14 point loss to Utah State at home. And now they face a Denver team who is better than both on the road in what could be a 20+ point win today as I have Denver winning this game going away to the tune of 80-55 as this game will likely be a rout.


Vegas Sports Informer
5 Unit Play. Take #549 Under 152 California at UCLA (11:00 p.m., Thursday, January 3 FSN)

(Total Game of the Week) Yes I know that UCLA offense is on fire averaging 80.9ppg but the Cal Bears defense is pretty good. The Bears will want to slow down this game and if the Bears can do that then this total flies under. Cal defense is giving up an average of 65.2ppg and last year these two teams didn't score over 150 points in both of those games. Again, I know UCLA has a high power offense but tonight I see both 'D's' playing tough and I see this game staying under 150 points.


Gill alexander
3 is Kansas State cfb
3 is Texans nfl


Rob Ferringo


3 * Canisius (-5) over Fairfield (7 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
3 * Long Beach State (+1.5) over Cal Poly (10 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)

2 * SIU-Edwardsville (+9.5) over Morehead State (7 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
2 * Michigan (-10.5) over Northwestern (7 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
2 * Middle Tennessee State (-4) over Arkansas State (8 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
2 * Western Kentucky (Pk) over Arkansas-Little Rock (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
2 * UC-Irvine (+1) over UC-Santa Barbara (10 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)

1 * South Alabama (-7) over UL-Monroe (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
1 * Northern Colorado (+13) over Weber State (9 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
1 * Utah State (-12.5) over Seattle (9 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
1 * UCLA (-7) over Cal (11 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
1 * FIRST HALF: Take #514 Detroit (-10) over UW-Milwaukee (7 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 3)
1 * FIRST HALF: Take #515 Michigan (-6) over Northwestern (7 p.m.)


Jason Sharpe

3 Unit Play Take #523 Western Kentucky pick'em over Arkansas Little-Rock (8:30pm est):

Western Kentucky has come out of the gates 4-0 to start their season in Sun Belt Conference play. They are also 10-5 on the season overall with all five defeats coming to top programs rated in the best 80 teams in the nation. They face an UALR team here who is 229th ranked in this one and at a line of pick'em here in this game. WKU also faced 214th rated Western Carolina and won by 11, beat 203rd ranked Souther Illinois by 1, FIU who is 213 ranked and won by 13 and North Texas who is rated 184th and beat them by 6 points. All these teams are rated right around where UALR comes into this game and all have been beat by a WKU team who has been in the upper 50 percent of the teams in CBB this season.

UALR has dropped three straight games and two in a row to teams with a worse rating than today's opponent. In fact UALR has went 0-5 in their five games against teams rated as good as WKU or better with their losses being by 18, 40, 12, 34 and 2 points for an average defeat of over 20 points. They have also caught their fair share of breaks this season with holding teams under 30 percent from the three point line and seeing their opposition shoot below 67% from the charity stripe this season. Not many times a team has both these numbers below those standards which usually means a lot of luck has gone their way so far.

WKU can beat teams at this level and should have no problems here. Take Western Kentucky in this one. My CFB Game of the Month for January goes off this weekend. Don't miss out on what should be an excellent play as I am locked in right now with all my college football plays, going 6-1 overall during this bowl season. I am also coming off a perfect 4-0 season last during the NFL playoffs and have a wildcard round winner going this weekend as well as I come in off a perfect 2-0 NFL this past Sunday. I have beat each the NFL and CFB in five of the past six weeks and look forward to end the season with an exclamation point. This is when I got hot last year as well and expect the same type results again this week and post-season also.


Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. #513 Take UW Milwaukee (+17) over Detroit (7 p.m., Thursday, January 3)

Why are the Titans laying 17 points to anyone much less a Horizon league opponent? I know Milwaukee aren't a very good team this year, but I feel like this line was a product of simply starring at the Panthers' record and not seeing this match-up more clearly. Detroit are just 2-9 ATS in their last eleven home games, and this heavy of home chalk is simply not warranted. Milwaukee has covered each of the past five meetings, while nine of the last ten games between these teams have been decided by eleven or fewer points. Detroit may score the win, but it is not going to be via a blowout. Take the road Panthers and the inflated spread.

3-Unit Play. #560 Take Canisius (-5) over Fairfield (7 p.m., Thursday, January 3)

This line could be nearly double digits and I wouldn't be surprised to see the home Golden Griffins take care of business here. Fairfield has lost four of its five games on the road, and the other was a home loss to this same Canisius team. Less than a month ago the Stags lost by 12 to this same team, so what's to keep the result from being any different now that Fairfield is on the road. If anything, I see it being a bigger win by the home team. Lay the number, as Canisius wins by double figures in this one.

3-Unit Play. #574 Take Jacksonville State (+7.5) over Belmont (8 p.m., Thursday, January 3)

I see these as two fairly even Atlantic Sun teams, and for the home team to be catching this many points, well, I think it's a value pick worthy of being made. The Gamecocks have held serve all year at home, including starting 2-0 out of the gate in league play. In fact, Jacksonville State has won three of its last four games by double digits. They are playing well and I will grab the number and the home underdog here.

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CHRIS JORDAN 200* five pack:

Spurs +1
Ark Little Rock pk
Sacramento +2
Montana St -2
Cal Poly -1.5

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Ray Falco

CBB

Arizona

NBA

Spurs

CFB

Ducks

4-1 last 2 nites (FSU n Stanford Monday/Heat, Louisville, ASU (L))..

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sbb

4-STAR San Antonio +1 over NEW YORK - Well here we are again in this familiar situation. San Antonio playing their fourth game in five nights on the road in a nationally televised TV game. The spotlight is going to be on Gregg Popovich and the Spurs here so they won't be able to still anybody. Instead we look for the Spurs to rally here and give David Stern and TNT a bad game by blowing out the Knicks.
San Antonio has actually done exceedingly well playing their fourth game in five nights. The Spurs are 10-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 21, 2012 when playing their fourth game in five days.

Last night, San Antonio beat Milwaukee 117-110. They went 9-of-17 on threes in the win. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (4.1 ppg) since April 23, 2010 after a road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

That included a 2-of-3 effort from Manu Ginobili. The Spurs are 6-0-1 ATS (8.2 ppg) since March 31, 2012 after a win on the road in which Manu Ginobili shot better than 50% from the arc.

San Antonio attempted 89 shots in that game and turned the ball over just eight times. The Spurs are 8-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since April 17, 1998 as a dog with no rest after a win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

New York played Tuesday and lost to Portland, 105-100. They also limited turnovers in that game with 10 turnovers and 84 shots. The Knicks are 0-11 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since December 01, 2000 as a favorite after a home loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

After tonight's game, New York travels to Orlando Saturday. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since December 03, 2001 as a favorite when playing the second game of a two game homestand after losing the first as a favorite.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Antonio 112, New York 95

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The Duke's Sports

2 Units Oregon -7.5

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SBP NCAAB Picks - 1/3
6 PM
514. Detroit U -17 (Mostly -17.5s but system recommends buying the half point)


10 PM
544. Cal Poly SLO -1


Rest of games:
511. Northeastern +7.5

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SBP NCAAB Picks - 1/3
6 PM
514. Detroit U -17 (Mostly -17.5s but system recommends buying the half point)


10 PM
544. Cal Poly SLO -1


Rest of games:
511. Northeastern +7.5

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Alatex - 15* Canisius

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SweetJones55 - Knicks

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ProSportsPlays


THURSDAY FOOTBALL
• Play OVER 76 Kansas State/Oregon (Top NCAA Play)
Starts at 8:30 PM EST


Kansas State has gone UNDER the total in 24 of the last 35 games and
they have also gone UNDER the total in 15 of the last 20 games when
playing in the 2nd half of the season. Kansas State has gone UNDER
the total in 30 of the last 46 games coming off a game with a turnover
margin of +2 or better and they have also gone UNDER the total in 40
of the last 62 games after covering the spread in two of the last
three games.

• Play Oregon -8 over Kansas State (Top NCAA Play)