1-5-13

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DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Wild Card Round Predictions

Saturday, January 5, 2013

AFC Wild Card Round
Cincinnati 21, HOUSTON 20

NFC Wild Card Round
GREEN BAY 29, Minnesota 26

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Today's NFL Picks

Cincinnati at Houston

The Bengals look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Cincinnati is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Texans favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 5 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/31)

Game 101-102: Cincinnati at Houston (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 135.851; Houston 138.397 Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 43 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2); Over

Game 103-104: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 134.082; Green Bay 144.563 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 46 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-8); Under

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Doc's Sports

4 Unit Play. #266 Take Under 53.5 in Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Ole Miss Rebels (BBVA Compass Bowl, Saturday, 1/5, 1 pm ESPN) Both teams come in with disappointing seasons and 6-6 records, and we expect a low-scoring close game between two teams that have offensive deficiencies. The Rebels should find the Panthers much easier to stop compared to some of the strong teams that they face in the SEC. Pittsburgh has gone under the posted total in 6 straight bowl games. Ole Miss has gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games following a victory in their previous game. Assuming there are no defensive or special teams touchdowns, I expect the score of this game be played in the low 20s, putting us in great shape to collect with the under.

Play the under

4 Unit Play. #102 Take Houston Texans -4.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday 4:30 pm NBC) This is a rematch of the Saturday playoff game last season, and I expect a similar result this year. Houston beat Cincinnati 31-10 last season, and that was with their third-string quarterback, TJ Yates. QB Matt Schaub is healthy for this game, and expect the Texans to turn the tide in a big way after losing the No. 1 seed with three of four losses down the stretch. Cincinnati is solid on both sides of the football, but they are a passing team, and that plays right into the hands of the Texans. JJ Watt is the best player in the league on defense. Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in January. Houston is 8-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.

Houston by 13

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Marc Lawrence:

2012 bowl stat report best bet #3

"Pitt" by 10 over `Ole Miss

compass bowl!


Wild card goy redskins

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Accuscore

Analyst’s Top 2 NFL Wildcard Picks

Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 at Houston Texans
People didn’t have faith in the Texans all season, and that paid off at the end of the year with Houston losing three of their last four games and having to play this round. Cincinnati has gone the other way winning seven of their last eight games needing to continue to win to get into the payoffs. Houston is very banged up on defense, outside of J.J. Watt, already without Brian Cushing. Linebacker Brooks Reed is very questionable to play, and Tim Dobbins is also banged up and didn’t practice Wednesday. Because of this, I don’t think Houston’s defense is quite as good as they appear on paper. The real difference between these two teams appears to be the divisions with Houston going 5-1 against the weak South and Cincinnati going 3-3 against the stronger North. I think this is a field goal game either way, which automatically leads me to take the points.

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS
7-UNIT
SUPER-HYDRAS
MISSISSIPPI - 3 vs pittsburgh **(Saturday, January 5th - 10am) -
COMPASS
BOWL***

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BIG AL's......5* NFL GOY
Game Date/Time: January 5, 2013, 5:00 pm(PST) Matchup: Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Take: Green Bay Packers

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota, as Green Bay falls into a 34-9 and 114-62 ATS systems of mine (which are also 5-0 and 16-7, respectively, in the Playoffs), as well as 45-20, 13-6, 20-6, and 15-0 ATS Playoff systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 15-0 angle. What we want to do is play on .667 (or better) home favorites, priced from -3 to -8 points, which are NOT off an upset win, if they're matched up against .625 (or worse) opponents off an upset win. With the 11-5 (.687) Packers currently in off an upset loss to these 10-6 (.625) Vikings, and installed as a 7.5 or 8-point favorite (as of this writing), they fall squarely within our 15-0 angle. More good news for the Packers: they will welcome the return of Charles Woodson on Saturday. Woodson missed their last nine games after breaking his collarbone on Oct. 21 vs. St. Louis. Additionally, Randall Cobb will be back on the field after missing last week's game at Minnesota. Even without Cobb last week, Aaron Rodgers completed 28 of 40 passes for 365 yards, four TDs and 0 interceptions. I expect just as good of an effort on Saturday night. In his 10 career starts vs. Minny, Rodgers has a 70% completion rate, with 24 TDs and just 4 INTs. His QB Rating is also the best in NFL history (105.5). On the other sideline, Minnesota must rely on an unreliable Christian Ponder at QB. Although he played terrific last week, that was more of an outlier performance, than anything else. At best, he's been completely mediocre this season, and really can only be relied upon to hand off to RB Adrian Peterson. He also was held out of practice Wednesday (as a cautionary measure) because of stiffness in his elbow. He'll no doubt play, but I would be surprised if he plays well in the hostile conditions at Lambeau Field. Similarly, Antoine Winfield is banged up and had a cast put on his arm. He will play, but at what level? Look for the Packers to rip the Vikings on Saturday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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ALLEN EASTMAN

4-Unit Play. Take #102 Houston (-4) over Cincinnati (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 5)

This is the same Texans team that beat the Bengals 31-10 last year in the Wild Card round. They didn't have Matt Schaub in that game and now they do. Houston is one of the best home teams in the NFL and they are going to give a strong performance. Houston has won four straight over Marvin Lewis and the Bengals and Houston is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. They beat Cincinnati twice last year. Houston faded down the stretch. But they were resting players for the postseason the last two weeks. I think they are healthy now and this is the same team that people said was the best in football just a month ago. The Bengals are 1-6 ATS in the playoffs and the Texans are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 home games. The Texans are 18-7-2 ATS against the AFC and 8-3-1 ATS against teams with a winning

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Robert Ferringo

NFL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
1-Unit Play. FIRST QUARTER: Take 'Under' 9.5 Cincinnati at Houston (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take #101 Cincinnati (+4.5) over Houston (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 5)


3-Unit Play. Take #104 Green Bay (-7.5) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 5)
I went with the Packers last week and came up empty in a back-and-forth game. However, let's go right back to the well here. The venue has changed to Lambeau Field but the line only adjusted 4.5 points. I don't think that fully reflects several factors that are going into this game. First, the Packers obviously have revenge in this game for that loss. Second, the stakes are much higher now and I expect Green Bay to play with the urgency that maybe they didn't have last week. Third, it's really, really, really tough to beat the same team in back-to-back weeks. Fourth, I think the Vikings will have somewhat of an emotional letdown because they were so happy just to get to the playoffs that it will be impossible for an encore. Finally, I just think the Packers are much, much better than the Vikings. And prior to last week's this-game-means-a-lot-more-to-the-crazed-home-team loss in Minnesota, I felt like the Packers had built up a ton of momentum and were playing as well as anyone in the NFL. The Packers have been perfect at home since a season-opening loss to San Fran. And if I think that they will win this game this week then you have to lay the points and assume they are going to cover. I like the Packers by double-digits in this one.


3-Unit Play. Take #106 Baltimore (-6.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 6)
Note: If this line moves back to -7.0 then make it a 4-Unit Play. That would be a very telling movement indeed

Look, it is no secret how I feel about Andrew Luck. I feel like he is the most overrated player in the NFL right now. He's not good. Will he someday be good? Maybe. But right now he is not a good NFL quarterback. He turns the ball over a ton and by my count he should have AT LEAST 10 more turnovers than the 23 that he's already responsible for. And that is not going to fly in Baltimore. This Ravens team is one of the toughest, most experienced, most motivated in football right now. This team got a huge emotional boost with Ray Lewis' announcement that this will be his last hurrah. And they were going to get a huge emotional lift by playing at home anyway just from the fact that they have one of the best and most underrated home field advantages in all of football over the last decade. This team goes bonkers at home. And this will be a venue, and an opponent, unlike anything that Andrew Luck has seen. This would be a 7-Unit Play if it were not for Jim Caldwell being Baltimore's offensive coordinator. He is a total incompetent. But at the very least he should have some good insight into his former team, Indianapolis. I just think that Baltimore is set to explode. And - to my own detriment - I have not bought into the Andrew Luck Hype all season long. This is a play against the general public, which is piling on Luck at a nearly 3-to-1 ratio, and a counterintuitive selection. The Colts have gotten slaughtered on the road against the only good teams they have faced this year - losing by 20 at Chicago, by 26 at New York, by 35 at New England, and by 12 at Houston. They aren't a good team! And it will be proven (again) today in a blowout.

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Wunderdog

Cincinnati at Houston
Pick: Cincinnati +4.5

Through 12 games at 11-1, the Texans looked like a team destined for the Super Bowl. As they often do in the NFL, things changed dramatically for this team over the last month of the season where they went just 1-3 straight-up and ATS. The offense, which went for over 30 points in six of their first 11 games, failed to do so once over their last five. Their average points per game dropped from over 30 to just over 16. They were held to less than 17 points just one time in their first 12 games, but failed to get there in three of their last four games. It appears that defensive coordinators have figure out this Texans offense to some extent and Houston hasn't been able to react positively. The offense wasn't their only problem, as the mighty Texans’ defense that limited their first nine opponents to 17 points per game, broke down and allowed 27 per game in their last seven. The Bengals endured a painful 0-4 stretch themselves this season, but fortunately it came early enough for them to work out their problems. They then came roaring back after the skid to finish 7-1 both SU and ATS. Outside of that one bad stretch, the Bengals were an impressive 10-2 on the season. The difference here is that the Texans have gone from looking Super at 11-1, to in a funk. The Bengals have left their funk behind to look Super at 7-1 in their last eight. Houston's pythagorean wins (a truer measure of a team's strength than actual wins) is 10, compared to 12 actual wins. They aren't as good as advertised. Cincinnati has gone 6-2 this season on the road. One team is off their game and favored, the other is on their game and is a dog, setting the stage for a live dog here. Cincy is coming in off a win and under Marvin Lewis, this team is 28-15 ATS on the road after a win. Take Cincinnati with the points.

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POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Pitt, Houst

2* GBay, over GB/Minny

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Pacers won nine of last eleven games (6-3 last nine HF).
-- Hawks won five of last seven games (3-9-1 as HF).
-- Rockets won seven of last nine games (10-6 as F, 0-1 as AF).
-- Kings are 6-3 in last nine games, covering eight of the nine. Nets won four of five since changing coaches (1-7 last eight HF).
-- Portland won nine of last twelve games (3-7 last ten AU). T'wolves won five of last six home games (6-3-1 as HF).
-- Spurs won seven of last eight games (6-2 last eight HF).
-- Nuggets won eight of last nine home games (9-3 as HF).
-- Warriors won four in row, 12 of last 15 games (8-2-2 as AU).

Cold Teams
-- Bucks are 4-6 in last ten games (7-3 as AU).
-- Orlando lost its last seven games (4-5 as HU). Knicks are 4-5 in last nine games (3-7 as AF).
-- Celtics lost eight of last eleven games (2-6-2 as AU).
-- Cavaliers lost nine of last eleven games (3-7 as HU).
-- 76ers lost four of last five games (3-8 last 11 as AU).
-- Mavericks lost 10 of last 12 games (5-4 as HF). New Orleans is 2-14 in its last 16 games (10-5 as AU).
-- Jazz lost seven of last eleven games (4-9-1 as AU).
-- Clippers won 19 of last 21 games (9-1 last ten as HF).

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Milwaukee road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Orlando home games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Boston road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Houston games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Portland games stayed under the total.
-- Philly's last five road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 10-5 in last fifteen New Orleans road games.
-- Last four Denver games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Golden State games went over total.

Back-to-backs
-- Celtics are 1-4-2 vs spread on road if they played night before; Hawks are 7-1 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Bucks are 1-6 vs spread if they played night before. Indiana is 5-4 if it played the night before.
-- Kings are 1-3 vs spread on road if they played night before. Brooklyn is 2-6 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Rockets are 3-5 vs spread if they played night before. Cleveland is 5-5 vs spread if it played night before, 0-2 at home.
-- Portland is 2-4 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- 76ers are 2-7 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Utah is 3-5 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Clippers are 2-5 vs spread if they played night before.

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CBB

-- Michigan State won last three games vs Purdue by 18-25-14 points; Boilers won two of last three visits here, but are 1-4 away from home this year, with an awful loss to Eastern Michigan. Spartans are turning ball over 22.9% of time; they're 3-3 vs top 100 teams, winning by 3-4-11 points. Purdue is making just 27.8% outside the arc.
-- Notre Dame won nine of last ten games vs Seton Hall, winning three in row, by 12-12-13 points; Pirates lost last five visits here, by 3-12-12-9-12 points. Irish are 12-1 vs schedule #312; they're 3-1 vs top 100 teams, winning by 10-14-13 points. 12-2 Seton Hall played #329 schedule; vs top 100 teams, they're 1-1, with only win by point over Stony Brook.
-- Kansas State beat Oklahoma State twice LY, by 8-19 points, after 2-7 skid in previous nine series games; three of their last four series wins are by 19+ points. Wildcats are 1-2 vs top 20 teams, losing to Michigan and Gonzaga, upsetting Florida; they're making only 31% behind arc. OSU is 4-1 vs top 100 teams- they lost at home by point to Gonzaga Monday.
-- Home side won seven of last nine Georgetown-Marquette games, as Hoyas lost last three visits here by 12-3-14 points. Georgetown is 3-1 vs top 100 teams, winning by 8-1-23 points, but they haven't played a good team since Dec 4. Eagles are 8-0 at home, beating UConn in OT in Big East opener- they're 3-2 vs top 100 teams (wins by 10-4-6).

-- Baylor won six of last eight games with Texas, sweeping Longhorns by 5-5 points LY; Texas had won 13 series games in row before that- they're 1-2 in last three visits here, losing by 15-5. Baylor split its six games vs top 100 teams; they've lost to both Charleston/Northwestern at home. Texas is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 23-2-11 points.
-- Ohio State won 11 of last 13 games vs Illinois, but lost 79-74 here in LY's visit; 11-2 Buckeyes lost to only top 100 teams they played, with its best win over #109 Washington. OSU lost only true road game by 5 at Duke. Illini lost two of last three games after 12-0 start; they get 37% of points behind arc, so when shooting skips, they're more vulnerable.
-- Miami won eight of last ten games with Georgia Tech, sweeping Tech by 15-18 points LY, but with star Johnson (hand) out, they're just not same team. Hurricanes are top 20 team with Johnson in lineup. Jackets won last six games, but last five were vs teams ranked #248 or lower, so hard to tell. Tech is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 15-11 points.
-- Home side won 14 of last 17 Creighton-Indiana State games; State lost last nine visits here, by 4-19-16-5-17-11-13-14-26 points. Sycamores won three of last four games vs top 100 teams, with all three wins by 2 points each- three of their last eight games went OT. Bluejays had solid win at Illinois State Wednesday; their 59.5eFG% is #1 in country. .
-- Stanford gagged away Pac-12 opener by hoop at USC after being up nine at half; Cardinal lost 10 of last 12 games with UCLA, losing its last seven visits here, by 17-14-10-34-4-11-11 points. Stanford is 3-4 away from home- their last three games were all decided by six or less points. UCLA won its last six games, scoring 90.2 ppg in last five.

-- West Virginia is 0-4 vs top 100 teams because they can't shoot, with 27.5% mark behind arc; best team they've beaten is #132 Va Tech, by a point. WVa lost 77-70 to Oklahoma six weeks ago at Disney World, as Mountaineers shot 36%, missed 10 FTs. #67 Sooners' last two losses are by combined total of 4 points; they're 2-3 vs top 100 teams.
-- Home side won 14 of last 18 Florida State-Clemson games; FSU is 1-8 in last nine trips to Littlejohn, losing last three by 10-18-20 points. FSU lost its first true road game by 6 at Auburn last game; they turn ball over 22.7% of time. 8-4 Clemson is 0-3 vs top 100 teams; they won only one game over team ranked higher than #199 (by 21 vs #127 UTEP).
-- Gonzaga won three in row, 20 of last 22 games with Santa Clara; they won eight of last nine visits here, winning by 16-4-13-8-5-8-11 points. Broncos won six of last seven games, with loss at Duke (they led Duke in second half); their other two losses were both in OT. Zags won last five games; they're 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-1-16 points.
-- Washington won four of last five games after 4-4 start; they're 2-3 vs top 100 teams, 1-1 in true road games, losing by 8 at UConn, winning at crosstown rival Seattle by 13. Huskies won seven of last nine games vs Washington State; they won three of last four visits to Pullman, winning by 20-7-4 points. Wazzu won seven of last eight games; their best win is over #144 Fresno State. Washington is #109.

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CFB

Compass Bowl (Birmingham, AL)

Pitt is playing in this game for third year in row, which usually raises a red flag towards player apathy, but Panthers breathed sigh of relief when coach Chryst didn't bolt to Wisconsin; that would've been nightmare for Pitt program that is headed to ACC next year. Chryst is Pitt's 4th coach in last three years; they're 2-3 in last five bowls, scoring just 11.8 ppg. Ole Miss is in first bowl since '09; they figure to have crowd edge, since new coach Freeze has raised hopes in Oxford. Rebels won three of last four bowls, but last three were all Cotton Bowls- their last minor bowl was '02 win over Nebraska in Shreveport. Ole Miss is 8-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 as a favorite; all six teams that beat team are better than Pitt, whose QB Sunseri is son of former Alabama assistant coach who was at Tennessee this year, but Vols didn't play Ole Miss. Underdogs are 16-15 vs spread in bowls this season; under is 19-13. Big East teams are 3-1 in bowl games this year, 3-0 vs spread as underdogs. SEC teams are 4-3 SU/ATS; they've been favored in every game.