1-6-13

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goodfella

3* sea ml
3* second half of teaser balt(1st half was gbay)

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Big Al

4* Kent
Op Ravens
3* Skins

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Steve merril

10* nfl* playoffs powerhouse: Seattle seahawks -2.5 -110

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Bengals (+4 1/2) Saturday.

Sunday it’s the Seahawks. The surplus is 40 sirignanos.

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Trace Adams


Top-Rated
1000♦
AFC Best Bet


Baltimore Ravens -7



Adams Note: If your price is -7 or even -7', go ahead and buy the half point down on Baltimore.

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ATS Lock Club
4* Seahawks, Over Arkansas State
3* Ravens

Hoops
4* Wichita State
3* Oregon State

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Intpicks
3* Under Redskins
2* Redskins, Ravens, Kent State & Over
1* Wisconsin, Pistons
Freeplay - Over Heat

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Dr. Ed Meyer | NFL TotalSun, 01/06/13 - 1:00 PM ^¡²

double-dime bet105 IND / 106 BAL UNDER 47.0 5Dimes
Analysis:The Ravens have played 13 playoff games in franchise history. This is the first in which they are off a loss. We expect a return to a conservative offense and a tough defense – especially as a heavy favorite vs a team that has a rookie QB and a defense that has trouble stopping the run.


As a team, the Ravens are 0-18 OU since the start of the 2005 season as a favorite off a regulation game in which they forced more than six punts, and their opponent failed on fewer than three red zone attempts, as long as they did not win the game by more than 24 points. The SDQL text is:
po:RZF<3 and team=Ravens and F and po:punts>6 and p:margin<=24 and p:OT=0 and season>=2005
The final scores in their two qualifying games from this season were: 9-6 vs the Chiefs and 16-13 over the Chargers in overtime.

Also, the Ravens have buckled down as a significant favorite over a team on a winning streak. Baltimore is 0-9 OU as a FG-plus favorite vs a team that has won at least their last three games. The SDQL text is:
team=Ravens and H and line<=-3 and o:streak>=2 and 20061101<=date
Note that the average final score of these nine games have been 15.8 to 9.8. In their last two, the Ravens won 13-7 and 16-6.
The Colts had a few long drives in their game vs the Texans – including a 9:46 drive to end the game – and they ran back a kickoff for a TD. This limited the number of possession they had and this points to a low-scoring game. The Colts are 0-11 OU the week following a game in which they had ten or fewer possessions and dog and punted fewer than six times. The SDQL text is:
p:drives<=10 and team=Colts and p:D and NB and p:punts<6 and season>=2005

Note that the Colts were 0-3 OU in this spot THIS season.
The return of Ray Lewis and the fact that this will be the last home game of his career will have the defense primed to send him out on a positive note. Take the UNDER.

MTi’s FORECAST: BALTIMORE 20 Indianapolis 16

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Thunder won four of last five games (7-3 as AF). Toronto won eight of its last ten games (5-2 as HU).
-- Pistons won last four games, last three by six or less (3-6 as HF).
-- Nuggets are 8-4 in last 12 games, but lost three of last four on road.

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost 14 of last 16 games, covered four of last five (8-5-1 as AU). Heat lost three of last five games (6-4 in last ten as HF).
-- Bobcats lost 19 of last 20 games (5-9 as AU).
-- Grizzlies lost four of last six games (lost four of last six on road). Suns lost seven of last eight games (4-7 vs spread at home).
-- Lakers lost three of last four games (4-7-1 vs spread in last 12).

Totals
-- Four of last five Thunder games went over the total.
-- Last seven Washington road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Detroit home games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 13 Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Lakers' last five games at Staples Center; last five Denver games stayed under.

Back-to-backs
-- Nuggets are 5-2-1 vs spread if they played night before.

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CBB

-- Syracuse won last four games with South Florida by average score of 67-54; they've won three of last four visits to Tampa, winning by 17-5-23 points (loss was in '08). Orange won 91-82 at Arkansas in their only true road game of season. USF won its last four games, with a triple OT game here; they allowed 55.7 ppg in the other three wins.
-- 10-2 Temple upset Syracuse, lost by 23 to Duke in its two games vs top 20 teams, both on neutral courts; next-best team they've played was #92 Villanova. Owls have road wins at Buffalo/Kent State. Kansas won six of seven games vs top 100 teams; their opponents make only 27.7% of shots inside arc. Jayhawks start conference play Wednesday.
-- Wisconsin beat Nebraska twice LY, by 24-5 points in Huskers' first year in Big Dozen; they scored total of 85 points in two games. Badgers scored 53 ppg in losing its two true road games, at Florida/Marquette; this is first road game in four weeks. Nebraska lost four of last seven games, with all four losses by 16+ points; they shoot 31.5% from arc.
-- Northwestern is 4-3 in last seven games vs Minnesota, splitting pair in last two Big Dozen tourneys; Wildcats lost last five visits to Williams Arena, by 19-27-4-11-23 points. Minnesota won last nine games, with five of nine foes in top 75- they beat Michigan State by 13 in conference opener. Wildcats are 3-5 in last eight games, but pulled upset at Baylor in only true road game this season.

-- 14-0 Michigan has #2 eFG% (58.7%) in country; they won conference opener by 28 on road, won six of last seven games with Iowa, losing to Hawkeyes 75-59 on road LY. Iowa lost last three visits here, by 15-14-14 points; they lost 69-65 at home to Indiana in Big Dozen opener- they open league play with two best teams. Each of Michigan's last seven wins were all by 13+ points.
-- 10-4 Bradley was 7-25 LY, losing to Wichita by 39-37 points; Braves lost last five series games, with 14 points closest of the five. Bradley has three losses by 8 or less points, including 74-66 home loss to Michigan. Wichita is 3-1 on road, losing at Tennessee, winning by 2-3-12- they've won first two Valley games, by 25-12 points.
-- How will Colorado respond after getting hosed by refs at Arizona in OT loss in Pac-12 opener? Buffs swept Arizona State by 15-14 points in its first year in league- they're 1-3 on road, winning at Fresno, losing to teams whose combined record is 38-1. Sun Devils snuck by Utah by point in OT in Pac-12 opener; they split pair against top 100 teams.
-- North Carolina won nine of last 10 games with Virginia, winning last three by 6-18-3 points; Tar Heels won last four visits here by 1-22-6-3 points. Carolina is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win over UNLV by 6 at home. Virginia won nine of last 10 games but lost to Old Dominion, an awful team; they're 2-0 vs top 100 teams, beating Badgers/Vols.
-- Oregon won three of last four games vs Oregon State, with all three of wins by 5 or less points; Ducks are 4-2 in last six visits here, winning by 1-4 points in last two. Oregon turns ball over 22.6% of time. State plays fast pace but doesn't force lot of turnovers; they've won six of last seven games, with strange loss to #229 Towson. Beavers' only win vs team in top 120 was 66-58 on neutral floor over #86 Purdue.

-- Tulsa won 10 of last 12 games with SMU, winning its last six visits to Dallas by 7-7-10-7-8-6 points; road team won six of last seven in series. Tulsa turns ball over 25.2% of time; they're 2-5 on road, with only win outside of Tulsa (lost at Oral Roberts) at #179 San Diego. SMU is 2-4 in last six games after 8-1 start; their last three wins are all against teams that are outside the top 300. Mustangs turn ball over 23.4% of time.
-- Loyola won four of last five games with St Peter's, beating Peacocks 61-55 in first meeting Dec 8, holding Washington to 6-17 from the floor. Greyhounds are 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with St Peter's game only one decided by less than 12 points. Peacocks are 3-7 in their last ten games; seven of their last eight were decided by 8 points or less.
-- Rider won three of last four games with Siena, beating Saints 62-56 in first meeting, a brickfest where Broncs were 9-16 from foul line, Siena a ridiculous 6-17. Rider is 0-5 since that game, with four of five away from home- they turn ball over 23.5% of time. Siena lost last 10 games, with three of last five by 6 or less points. Saints turn ball over 23.3% of time.
-- Iona won three of last four games with Manhattan; visiting teams won five of last six series games. Erratic Gaels have two road wins this week, at St Bonaventure/Siena; they're #3 in country on foul line, making 80%. Manhattan is 0-8 when it allows 60+ points, 4-1 when it allows 58 or less; they've lost six of last eight games, beating teams #291/236. Iona is ranked team #89. Jaspers are 0-4 vs top 100 teams (Ls by 28-34-8-6).

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CFB

GoDaddy.com Bowl (Mobile, AL)

Both teams working with interim coaches after bigger schools scooped up coaches who led these teams to 10-3/11-2 seasons. MAC teams won this game six of last nine years, beating Sun Belt teams last three games. Arkansas State wil have fourth HC in four years next year; they're 0-2 in bowl games, but won last seven games overall, scoring average of 41 ppg. Flashes are 5-2 vs spread as favorites this year. Kent State lost in OT in MAC title game; they're 5-1 vs spread as an underdog, +21 in turnovers this season. In five games vs bowl teams, they were outgained by average of 76 yards/game, but were pulled through by turnovers/improved special teams. Underdogs covered this bowl game last two years, after going 0-6-1 vs spread in previous seven. Average total in this game last five years is 67.4. This season, MAC teams are 2-3 in bowl games, with four of five staying under total; Sun Belt teams are 1-2, all as favorites. Dogs are 16-16 vs spread overall in bowls this season; under is 19-14.

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NFL

Colts (11-5) @ Ravens (10-6)—Lot of sidebars in this game; Colts coming back to Baltimore (they’re 9-3 vs Ravens, winning eight of last nine meetings, three of last four played here), former Indy coach Caldwell is now calling plays for Baltimore, former Raven DC Pagano replaced Caldwell as Colts’ head coach, returning from bout with leukemia to resume coaching last week, Ray Lewis’ pending retirement after a great 17-year career. Baltimore ended 8-game series losing streak with 24-10 win over Colts here LY, but they limp into playoffs, losing four of last five games; they fired their OC in December, rare occurrence for team with winning record- they were actually underdogs in last four games. Ravens are 2-4 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 31-1-7-2-35-19 points (lost to Steelers/Broncos). Indy has issues; they allowed 352 rushing yards at woeful Chiefs two weeks ago, but in storybook season (they were 1-15 LY), have overcome all odds behind rookie QB Luck. AFC North home favorites are 5-8 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-9. Colts won five of last six games, are 6-4 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-4 away from home.

Seahawks (11-5) @ Redskins (10-6)—Since 2006, road favorites in Wild Card round (non-divisional winner favored over divisional winner) are 3-5 vs spread. Two rookie QBs, two hot teams. Seattle won five in row, seven of last eight games; they had scored 58-50-42 points in consecutive games before Rams challenged them in 20-13 Seattle win last week. Should be noted that Seahawks are 2-5 in true road games this year (beat Bills in Toronto), winning 16-12 at Carolina, 23-17 in OT at Chicago, game that ultimately cost Lovie Smith his job, so Hawks are not stellar road team (lost at Arizona-Rams-Lions-Miami). Washington won/covered last seven games, pulling out win last Sunday night over rival Cowboys in what was essentially a play-in game; they’ve run ball for average of 180.6 ypg over last five games. Redskins won six of last eight games with Seattle, but two losses came in ‘05/’07 playoffs, both played out west. Seattle is +12 in turnovers in last four games (+12 for season), Washington is +10 in last six games, +16 for season. NFC West road faves are 3-2 vs spread. NFC East favorites are 6-15 vs spread, 5-9 at home. Five of last six Seattle games, three of last four Redskin games went over the total.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/06/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1705-503 (.772)
ATS: 687-707 (.493)
ATS Vary Units: 2379-2536 (.484)
Over/Under: 184-181 (.504)
Over/Under Vary Units: 232-259 (.473)

Atlantic Coast Conference
North Carolina vs. VIRGINIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Big East Conference
Syracuse 65, SOUTH FLORIDA 58

Big Ten Conference
MICHIGAN 78, Iowa 65
MINNESOTA 76, Northwestern 57
Wisconsin 63, NEBRASKA 51

Conference USA
SMU 61, Tulsa 59

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
IONA 81, Manhattan 68
LOYOLA (MD.) 65, Saint Peter's 53
RIDER 71, Siena 58

Missouri Valley Conference
Wichita State 67, BRADLEY 58

Pacific-10 Conference
Colorado 72, ARIZONA STATE 63
Oregon 78, OREGON STATE 75

Southwestern Athletic Conference
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF 63, Alabama State 57
JACKSON STATE 64, Alcorn State 62
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE 68, Alabama A&M 63
Southern 66, GRAMBLING STATE 49
Texas Southern 67, PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 62

Western Athletic Conference
DENVER 71, UT San Antonio 55

Non-Conference
AMERICAN 62, Cornell 60
Florida 74, YALE 55
KANSAS 80, Temple 62

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DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 19 Predictions

Week
Straight Up: 10-1 (.909)
ATS: 5-6 (.455)
ATS Vary Units: 22-23 (.489)
Over/Under: 2-9 (.182)
Over/Under Vary Units: 7-28 (.200)

Season
Straight Up: 1066-353 (.751)
ATS: 435-404 (.518)
ATS Vary Units: 2518-2325 (.520)
Over/Under: 384-378 (.504)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1251-935 (.572)

Sunday, January 6, 2013
GoDaddy.com Bowl
at Ladd Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
Arkansas State 35, Kent State 32

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/06/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 325-156 (.676)
ATS: 242-247 (.495)
ATS Vary Units: 741-683 (.520)
Over/Under: 255-234 (.521)
Over/Under Vary Units: 422-363 (.538)

Oklahoma City 105, TORONTO 96
MIAMI 105, Washington 87
DETROIT 102, Charlotte 89
Memphis 97, PHOENIX 94
L.A. LAKERS 105, Denver 104