1-6-13

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Hammer The Book

Seahawks
Ravens

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Harry Bondi

GoDaddy.com Bowl

KENT STATE (+3.5) over Arkansas State

Kent State has been underrated all season long and we have made a nice profit riding this team, as they have gone a profitable 11-2 at the betting window, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog. So, we certainly aren't going to get off the Flashes tonight. Arkansas State might be a bit distracted here as their head coach, Gus Malzahn, bolted for Auburn. Kent State head coach Darrell Hazell also accepted a new job at Purdue, but decided to stay behind and coach his team for one last game, and his players are primed to send their head coach out on a high note. Both teams can put up points in bunches, but we like the Kent State offensive match-up against the Arkansas State defense that allowed 386.5 yards and 36.4 points per game. And much like yesterday when we cashed a winning ticket on Mississippi, Kent State is ecstatic to be in this game since this is its first bowl game in 40 years, which means they will be the more motivated team.

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RM29

2-1 on Friday
3-0 yesterday

Seattle -3

Baltimore -7

Kent State + 3.5

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CHRIS JORDAN 600*

Colts (buy up to +7.5)

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Hoopsgooroo

105 Colts +7 @ 1p
108 Redskins +3 @ 4:30p

268 Kent St. +3.5 @ 9p

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Charlie Sports

500* Baltimore -7

500* Baltimore / Indy Under 47

500* Seattle / Washington Over 46

30* NCAAB Witchita St. -5

Free: NCAAF Kent St. +3

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GamingToday’s Consensus Picks January 06, 2013 7:08 AM by GT Staff

NFL Football Wild Card Games

Indianapolis Colts +7

Indianapolis Colts/Baltimore Ravens UNDER 46

Washington Redskins +3

Seattle Seahawks/Washington Redskins UNDER 45

College Football Bowl Game

Arkansas State -4

Arkansas State/Kent State OVER 61

NCAA Basketball

South Florida +8

Northwestern +17½

Texas San Antonio +15

Yale +20½

Bradley +6

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Best Weekend wagers with Weekend Warrior January 06, 2013 7:15 AM by GT Staff

NCAA Basketball

Northwestern +17½

NFL Football Wild Card Games

Seattle Seahawks -3

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Prediction Machine:

Paul's Pick: Baltimore -6.5 vs. Indianapolis (Covers 57.1%)

The most valuable overall game features the most likely straight-up winner - the only Wild Card Round game where we expect the home team to cover. As has been noted consistently throughout the season, the Indianapolis Colts faced the league's easiest schedule throughout this impressive run from first overall pick to 11 win season. Not only was it the easiest schedule of the year, the gap between Indianapolis and the next easiest schedule (Cincinnati) is the greatest I have seen in nine years of doing this professionally. Give the Colts credit for getting here, but they have struggled when overmatched and they are overmatched in this game against the Baltimore Ravens. As friends of PM Chad Millman and Bill Simmons discuss in their recent NFL Playoff podcast, if this game were scheduled for Week 1 of this season, even with all of the same players starting that are currently expected in this game, this line would be double-digits. That's still right about where it should be. Emotional wagering (the public backing Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano) is all that is keeping this line from a touchdown or more.

The Indianapolis Colts are 11-5 straight-up and 10-6 against-the-spread on the season. On the road, the team is just 4-4 SU and ATS. As a touchdown or greater underdogs on the season, Indianapolis is just 1-3 SU and ATS, with all three losses coming on the road and by an average margin of 43.0-20.7. The Colts finish the year ranked 22nd in our NFL Power Rankings - behind teams like the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Worse yet, Indianapolis does not rank as average or greater (1-16) in any of our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. This includes a last place ranking in run defense, which cannot be good news facing a well-rested Ray Rice (whose Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda also got to take it easy last week to prep for this game). Maybe the most damning statistic related to the Colts is that, despite playing the easiest relative schedule in a decade, the only two teams that were out-gained by more yards-per-play than Indianapolis were Kansas City and Arizona. The Colts gave up almost a full yard more per-play than they gained on the season.

Baltimore has legitimately struggled with defensive injuries during an up-and-down season that saw the Ravens win the AFC North with a 10-6 record, yet finish just 6-9-1 against-the-spread versus the 18th toughest NFL schedule. While the close to the season, which saw Baltimore lose three of its last four games, is not inspiring, the Ravens never once faced a team that had been eliminated from NFL Playoff contention and still took advantage of weaker opponents when possible. As six point or greater favorites on the year, Baltimore went 3-1 and won all three of those games by at least 13 points (average score of 40.7-16.3 in those wins).

While we have erred on the side of caution and do not expect much positive bonus from getting back LB Ray Lewis for this game, it is important to note that Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Anquan Boldin and Bernard Pollard should all be as fresh as they have been in a long time after getting Week 17 off and that just LB Jameel McClain and CB Lardarius Webb remain as the defensive starters who will miss this game (seven other defensive starters have missed at least one game on the season).

According to 50,000 games played of Indianapolis @ Baltimore by the Predictalator, the Ravens win 71.8% of the time and by an average score of 30.8-21.7. As 6.5 point favorites that win by almost ten points, Baltimore covers the spread 57.1% of the time, which warrants a $50 play from a normal $50 player. The OVER (46.5) in this game covers 59.5% of the time as a recommended $75 play for a $50 player.

Paul's Pick: Seattle -2.5 vs. Washington (Covers 54.5%)

As Dave Tuley noted in this week's (great, as usual) Vegas Beat column, Seattle opened as just one point favorites in most early sportsbooks (we saw PK in at least one spot as well), yet the Seahawks have climbed to -2.5 in some spots and -3 in others (admittedly more now when I am writing the analysis late Wednesday afternoon). The Seahawks are not just the better team, they are by far the more complete team. In a matchup of two rookie quarterbacks making their first ever NFL Playoff starts, the team with the better team around said quarterback is likely to win. Undoubtedly at this point in the year, that is Seattle.

The Seattle Seahawks are 11-5 straight-up and 10-5-1 against-the-spread versus the fifth most difficult NFL schedule from 2012. While it is obvious to note that Seattle struggled on the road - given that they went 8-0 at home - the Seahawks had the ball with a chance to take the lead on a final possession with two minutes or fewer left in every single road loss. They did not lose a game by more than a touchdown on the year. Obviously, to cover Seattle has to win this game, which the Seahawks proved they could also do on the road with two outright upsets as underdogs away from home and a 50-17 win in Toronto in their final road game of the year. In general, not dissimilar to Washington, Seattle is playing its best football at the end of the year with seven wins (and six covers) in the last eight games.

Washington is 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS against the 15th ranked NFL schedule. Washington has won seven straight games, but only one of those came over a playoff team (Washington's lone other win over a playoff team came in Week 6 at home over Minnesota). In our end of season NFL Power Rankings, the Seahawks finished third overall - entering the playoffs as the most likely team from Wild Card Round to win the Super Bowl. Seattle has out-gained its opponents by 0.71 yards-per-play which is the third best number in the league and more than twice what Washington has been able to do. The Redskins do have a great offense (the main reason this game goes OVER), which finished the year fourth overall, first in passing and fifth in rushing in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. However, the defense, which ranks 31st and is below average against the run and the pass, is an area of concern. Washington gives up the sixth most yards-per-play in the league and has the weakest pass rush of any playoff team. If Washington cannot get to Seattle's rookie quarterback Russell Wilson and the Seahawks get to the Redskins' rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III - as is expected in this projection - Seattle should net the victory. Wilson has the better overall team around him and is simply more likely to be standing (victorious and with a clean jersey) at the end of the game.

In 50,000 games played of Seahawks @ Redskins, Seattle wins in Washington 60.3% of the time and by an average margin of 27.1-22.7. As 2.5 point favorites, Seattle covers the spread 54.5% of the time, which justifies a $22 play from a normal $50 player (it is a playable $10 play with 53.3% confidence at Seattle -3). The OVER (46) has more value with 55.9% confidence and a recommended $37 wager from a normal $50 player.

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Northcoast

Regular opinion on Kent St +3.5
Regular opinion (single) OVER 63.5

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lenny stevens

10 colts

10 seattle

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lang

100 units ravens

[DaKid]

Geez everyone on the ravens. About to be a bloodbath. Ill take the colts

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SB Professor Bowl Pick 1/6
267. Arkansas St. -3 (service play)

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RAS
No plays today.