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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Our Free Plays are 961 - 715 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !
Free Winner Mon: Ill-Chi -2
Our Free Plays are 961 - 715 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !
Free Winner Mon: Ill-Chi -2
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Gamblers Data
Free Play Monday
Utah Jazz -4.5Comment
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Jimmy Boyd
4* National Championship Alabama -9.5
3* CBB Hofstra +5
3* NBA New Orleans Hornets +8Comment
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XPERT PICKS
• Play Alabama -9.5 over Notre Dame
(TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAY)---50% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:30 PM EST
Notre Dame has lost 7 of the last 9 games against the spread when
playing in the month of January and they have also lost 9 of the last
12 games against the spread when playing as a neutral field underdog.
Notre Dame has lost 4 consecutive games when playing on a Monday and
they have also lost 2 of the last 3 games against the spread when the
total posted is 42 points or less.Comment
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Matt fargo
10* notre dameComment
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VINCENT RIZZO
CFB BCS CHAMPIONSHIP,
Notre Dame +10 (3 Unit's)Comment
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Allen Eastman
6-Unit NBA Game of the Month
Portland -6.5Comment
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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets
CBB NOTRE DAME at CINCINNATI
Play Under - Home teams against the total in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG), after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games.
39-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.6% 23.6 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.2 units )
CBB NOTRE DAME at CINCINNATI
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (NOTRE DAME) excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
172-99 since 1997. ( 63.5% 61.5 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.0 units )
CBB NOTRE DAME at CINCINNATI
Play Under - Home teams against the total after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after scoring 80 points or more 3 straight games.
54-23 since 1997. ( 70.1% 28.7 units )Comment
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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets
NBA CLEVELAND at CHICAGO
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins.
82-41 since 1997. ( 66.7% 36.9 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )
NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at WASHINGTON
Play Against - Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) poor shooting team - shooting <=43% on the season.
151-41 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.6% 62.1 units )
27-9 this year. ( 75.0% 8.6 units )
NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at WASHINGTON
Play Against - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) excellent team - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% on the season, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
62-28 since 1997. ( 68.9% 31.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% 1.8 units )Comment
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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets
CFB ALABAMA at NOTRE DAME
Play Over - Any team against the total after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 5 defensive starters returning.
92-50 over the last 10 seasons. ( 64.8% 37.0 units )
14-13 this year. ( 51.9% -0.3 units )
CFB ALABAMA at NOTRE DAME
Play On - Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (ALABAMA) after dominating the time of possession last game (>36 minutes)
37-7 since 1997. ( 84.1% 0.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.0 units )
CFB ALABAMA at NOTRE DAME
Play Over - Any team vs the 1rst half total in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), in non-conference games.
92-50 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.8% 37.0 units )
14-16 this year. ( 46.7% -3.6 units )Comment
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NBA Game of the Day: Celtics at Knicks
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (-7, 193)
The New York Knicks have been resting comfortably atop the Atlantic Division for much of the season. The Boston Celtics know that spot all too well, considering they've won the division title in each of the last five years. New York hasn't owned the Atlantic since 1993-94, but Carmelo Anthony will look to continue his scoring surge on Monday when the rivals meet for the first time this season at Madison Square Garden.
Anthony fueled a fourth-quarter comeback by scoring 16 of his 40 points in the session as New York posted a 114-106 victory over Orlando on Saturday. The Knicks have won two in a row - as have the Celtics, who benefited from Rajon Rondo's second triple-double this season to secure an 89-81 victory over Atlanta on Saturday. Rondo had 14 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Comcast SportsNet New England (Boston), MSG (New York)
ABOUT THE CELTICS (16-17): The road hasn't been kind for coach Doc Rivers' club, which had dropped three in a row prior to defeating Atlanta. The Celtics will make the short trek to the Big Apple before returning to Beantown, where it will remain for five straight games. Forward Paul Pierce, who averages 23.6 points in his career versus New York, erupted for a season-high 43 in a 118-110 loss to New York on April 17.
ABOUT THE KNICKS (23-10): Anthony registered his second career triple-double in last April's contest - going for 35 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. The superstar insists that his team isn't concerned with Boston, which sits seven games back in the standings. "We don't even think about them," he said. "No disrespect or anything. We're focused on ourselves." The Knicks seemed to be pretty locked in on that regard, as they toughened up defensively to stymie San Antonio on Thursday before overcoming an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit to the Magic on Saturday.
TRENDS:
* Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.
* Under is 6-1 in Celtics’ last seven overall.
* Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in New York.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The game will feature Rondo versus veteran Jason Kidd. Rondo leads the league by averaging 11.3 assists per game. Kidd, who will be 40 in March, has averaged 8.9 per game in his career.
2. New York swingman J.R. Smith is averaging 23.8 points in his last eight games - a full seven points higher than his season average.
3. The teams split their four-game series last year - with the home club winning every game.Comment
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Kelso
100 Units
Alabama (-9) over Notre Dame
BCS Championship Game Played at SunLife Stadium (75,192), Grass, in Miami Gardens, Florida 100 Units Alabama (12-1) -9 over Notre Dame (12-0) Prediction: Alabama by 17-20 Weather: Cloudy, 20% chance of rain, game-time temperatures low 70s to high 60s, with wind out of the east-northeast at 9 miles per hour. Starting Time: 8:35 TV: ESPN Comments: Gathering factual data is the foundation of successful handicapping and on an average 3-day weekend I will find and print out more than 400 pages of information on the teams playing in football and basketball from Friday through Sunday. I printed out 334 pages on Notre Dame-Alabama alone and was left with 26 pages of useful data that had value in handicapping the game and the pointspread. The figures say this will be a defensive battle from the get-go. Alabama is ranked 1st of 124 teams in total defense (246.0 yards per game), 1st in rushing defense (79.77 yards per game), 1st in passing defense (161.86 yards per game) and 1st in red zone defense (permitting either a touchdown or a field goal 62.96% of the time and 2nd against the score (giving up 10.69 yards per game) As impressive as are those numbers, they do not standout when compared with those of Notre Dame, which is ranked 1st in scoring defense (giving up just 10.33 points per game), 5th in total defense (286.3 yards per game), 4th in passing defense (194.42 yard per game), 2nd in red zone defense (permitting scores 63.64% of the time and, last but not least, has given up just 7 touchdowns the entire season. Both teams obviously have dominating defenses but Alabama has something Notre Dame does not—a powerful offense, led by an outstanding quarterback who can put points on the board, that it can crank up when the money is on the line in as it did in putting 512 yards on the charts, including 350 yards rushing, in its 32-28 win over Georgia in the SEC championship game. Alabama’s junior quarterback A.J. McCarron (26 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) has the second-best passing efficiency figure in the country—173.08 and during his college career has thrown 662 career passes with just 8 interceptions. Notre Dame starts redshirt freshman Everett Golson at quarterback and he is the 62nd-ranked quarterback with an efficiency rating of 131.79, with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Crimson Tide also has two 1,000 yard rushers in Eddie Lacey and T.J. Weldon. Notre Dame has Theo Reddick (880 yards) and Cierre Wood (740 yards). Alabama is going to grind out its points and there is little to suggest the Irish can keep up offensively.
50 Units
Alabama/Notre Dame UNDER 41½ Points
Alabama-Notre Dame Under 40 ½ Points Prediction: 38 or less points will be scored Comments: Notre Dame gives up just 10.3 points per game, Alabama 10.7. I rest my case.
50-Unit Parlay on Alabama and the UNDER.Comment
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AAA Sports - Greg Shaker
3* Bama/Dame OVER 41
It's time to get this one now with it being at the Key Number of 41. We might see a drop to 40.5 but eventually it will climb back up. I am not waiting to see. We think of Alabama as a great defensive team and they are no doubt. Certainly Notre Dame has been on their D game this year with both teams being #1 and #2 in that category this year. That is clearly why we are seeing this low number. However, I am not sold on the fact that the Irish can stop the Bama Offense which has been putting up Big Numbers this year and most recently a heck of a lot of them. I guess you can certainly see where I am leaning on the side and I personally have included Bama in a couple of Moneyline Parlays, both front ends already winning. The likelihood of at least one D score here in this contest and the likelihood of an Irish Team making some 2nd Half Boo Boo's as well. It's not going to take much to get this favorable number. Mine is 47.1 and that is moving through a lot of Key Numbers. Playing 3% here..
1/7/2013 Line Update: As I somewhat expected this line has dropped to 40.5 at just about all books and we could perhaps see it go down more with a lot of talk about this being a low scoring contest. My gut tells me that Joe Pub will bring it back too or Over the 41 mark. Either way we have a good number IMO and I do still like this play very much..Comment
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Prediction Machine:
ATS BCS Championship Bowl Pick: Alabama -9 vs. Notre Dame (Covers 56.6%)
Notre Dame absolutely deserves to be ranked #1 in the BCS and to be playing in this game. The Irish played a top 30 schedule in FBS this season and won every game. However, that does not mean that Notre Dame is the best team in the country or would be favored over every other team nationally on a neutral field. In fact, at best, Notre Dame is the fifth best team in the nation and, according to our projections, on a neutral field, would be an underdog to at least four teams in the SEC (Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia and Florida).
Alabama, on the other hand, may have lost a game (at home even) and actually played an easier overall schedule than Notre Dame (#35 in FBS), but the Crimson Tide have the best team in the nation and deserves to be favored in this matchup for the BCS National Championship.
On the season, Alabama is 12-1 straight-up and 6-6 against-the-spread. Of those six ATS losses, four came at home and three were as 31+ point favorites in games that were not close. Outside of Tuscaloosa, the team is 6-0 straight-up and 4-2 ATS, with blowout wins over Michigan, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee and narrow victories over LSU and Georgia (the OVER is also 4-2 in those games). In our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, Alabama ranks in the top five in all four core facets of the game - pass offense (fourth), run offense (second), pass defense (fifth) and run defense (first).
More specifically, junior quarterback A.J. McCarron ranks third in FBS in yards-per-pass (9.3) and second in touchdowns-per-attempt (.09), while averaging 3.3 MORE yards-per-attempt than opponents. On the ground, with a combination of Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon and an offensive line that dominated the SEC Championship game and may be the best that college football has seen in the last decade, Alabama ranked third in the nation with 5.6 yards-per-rush and rushed for 3.1 MORE yards-per-carry than opponents. The Tide also committed the fourth fewest penalties-per-game (3.8). The team runs the ball 61.9% of the time. Alabama's kickers are 15-of-20 on the season (with all misses coming from greater than 40 yards). A blocked field goal returned for a touchdown figured strongly in Georgia's cover (though still a loss straight-up) over Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Do not expect that to happen again.
While Notre Dame's profile is strong, it cannot match that. The Irish are 12-0 straight-up and 7-5 ATS. Away from home, Notre Dame went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with two outright victories as an underdog - at Michigan State (+6) and at Oklahoma (+10) while the OVER was just 1-4 in those games. Defensively, this team is as nearly as good as Alabama. The Irish rank second in overall defense in our metrics and are third against the pass and 12th against the run. Offensively, there have been some struggles and uncertainty at the quarterback position, but this is still a top 15 passing (#15) and running (#8) squad as presently constructed (especially with sophomore quarterback Everett Golson's maturation into an adequate playmaker down the stretch).
Digging deeper into the numbers, Notre Dame ranked just above the national passing average (of 7.3) in yards-per-attempt (7.5) and just below in touchdowns-per-attempt (0.04 as compared to 0.05) and completion percentage (58.2% as compared to 60.5%). The Irish still averaged 1.7 more yards-per-attempt than their opponents in the passing game. The run offense averaged 5.0 yards-per-carry and 1.8 more yards-per-carry than opponents. Notre Dame commits 5.7 penalties-per-game and runs the ball 57% of the time. Lastly, Notre Dame field goal kickers are 23-of-31 on the season.
And then we get to the time off in preparation for this game... Nick Saban already has three national championships and is 5-3 ATS as a favorite in bowl games. Brian Kelly is 1-4 all-time ATS in bowl games and lost his only appearance in a BCS bowl with Cincinnati to Virginia Tech, 20-7, in the 2009 Orange Bowl (his undefeated Bearcats were destroyed in the 2010 Sugar Bowl by Florida after Kelly left for Notre Dame). These records and experiences do not reflect why we are picking this way, but they certainly do not hurt the argument. With the time off, it does not appear as though injuries to either side will play a role.
Playing very similar styles and with similar strengths, Alabama is the more dominant team and a team without a major weakness. The SEC has won six consecutive BCS National Championship games - five of which came by double-digits. Look for a seventh consecutive title and another resounding victory for the conference. In 50,000 simulations of the BCS Championship Game, Alabama wins 70.2% of the time and by an average score of 29.1-16.3. As nine point favorites, Alabama covers the spread 56.6% of the time, which would warrant a $44 wager from a normal $50 player. With a total line at 42 and 45 points expected, the OVER covers at a similar percentage of 55.6% and would justify a $34 wager.Comment
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Trace Adams
Highest-Rated
2000♦
Double Your Wager
College FB Winner #7 of 9
#11 of 16 Overall ALL Sports
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +9.5 (He says buy the 1/2 and get it at +10)Comment
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