1-12-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

9* Baltimore Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MATT FARGO

10* Baltimore Ravens
9* Green Bay Packers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB TENN-MARTIN at BELMONT

Play Against - Favorites of 20 or more points (BELMONT) off a win against a conference rival.
89-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

CBB WM & MARY at HOFSTRA

Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (WM & MARY) an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after a combined score of 155 points or more.
114-28 since 1997. ( 80.3% 45.8 units )

CBB DUKE at NC STATE

Play Against - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (DUKE) after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record.
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% 2.7 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Saturday

No Best Bets

3* = DENVER BRONCOS

3* = "OVER" on PACKERS/49ERS

2* = GREEN BAY PACKERS

Sunday look ahead

3* = ATLANTA FALCONS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN 1000*

6.5 pt teaser Denver-3, San Fran +3 5

Bonus 400* Montana -1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOP SHELF CHICAGO

2* Denver/Baltimore Under 46

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Line Changers

NC State +4 (5 UNITS)

Minnesota +7.5 (4 UNITS)

Ravens +10 (5 UNITS)

Florida -11 (3 UNITS)

Packers +3 (5 UNITS)

Missouri +5 (5 UNITS)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Erin Rynning

20* 49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Georgetown at St Johns 11:00PM ESPN2

4* Georgetown -1
We lost a top play on this G-town team who is “So Much More than a Defensive Dandy” in their mid-week home loss to Pitt. Conventional thinking would dictate “the bounce” after Hoya HC Thompson called his squad “offensively immature”. But I must advise caution before taking off the rubber band against an athletic St. Johns team off a mid-week home loss themselves, 58-56, to Rutgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Gold Sheet

DENVER 31 - Baltimore 17—Previous meetings, even if played recently, have
never been foolproof indicators of what might transpire in playoff rematches.
Nonetheless, a quick review of those earlier proceedings is usually in order.
In retrospect, perhaps it’s no surprise the Ravens were laced 34-17 by
Denver at M&T Bank Stadium on December 16. Baltimore had lost two in a row
and had endured a disruptive week prior to kickoff, with combustible o.c. Cam
Cameron dismissed and replaced by QB coach Jim Caldwell (former Colts HC),
never before a play-caller. QB Joe Flacco suffered the consequences,
including a back-breaking 98-yard interception return for a TD by Bronco DB
Chris Howard in the final seconds of the first half, staking Denver to a 17-0 lead
at the break. The Denver lead mushroomed to 31-3 entering the 4th Q before a
couple of belated Flacco TD passes made the final a more respectable 34-17.
But the result was due to more than the long Howard interception return, as
the Broncos moved smartly on the ground with RB Knowshon Moreno (118 YR),
while QB Peyton Manning had a comfortable afternoon, completing 17 of 28
throws. Baltimore also couldn’t run (Ray Rice only 38 YR), and Flacco was
subject to intense pocket pressure.
Raven backers will argue that their team is a different one in mid-January,
with Flacco and his o.c. Caldwell now working in unison, while soon-to-retire LB
Ray Lewis has returned to the defense, providing more than an inspirational lift
(witness the 13 tackles he was invovled in last Sunday vs. the Colts). But there
has been season-long evidence that this isn’t the same shutdown Baltimore
stop unit as in past years; indeed, the better “D” might belong to Denver, which
recorded an NFL-best 52 sacks and with disruptive forces DE Elvis Dumervil &
LB Von Miller in a healthy state for this postseason (unlike a year ago), and
whose Champ Bailey-led 2ndary has a lot more experience that the Indy
version Flacco faced last week. The Broncos also enter full of confidence after
And, of course, there’s Manning, whose quick rapport with underrated
receiving targets Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker (combined 179 catches
and 23 TDs; unlike the Colts receivers, the Denver wideouts catch the ball)
gives the Broncs a far more-menacing look than LY when Tim Tebow was
piloting a jerry-rigged attack. Manning has also made a habit of solving
Baltimore, owning nine straight wins as a starter over the Ravens.

Green Bay 21- SAN FRANCISCO 19—Go-with vs. go-with? Aaron
Rodgers-led Green Bay is back on the beam now that DB Charles Woodson has
returned to stabilize the defense and mini-RB DuJaun Harris has added
some valuable quickness to the Packer running game. Plus, Green Bay got
some on-the-job training vs. QB runs last week when speedy backup Joe
Webb was the emergency starter for Minnesota after Christian Ponder came
up with a bum elbow/triceps.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have been nearly unbeatable at home in the Jim
Harbaugh era, going 14-3-1 SU at Candlestick, with two of the losses in
overtime, one of those knocking San Francisco out of the playoffs LY in a
stunning 20-17 setback vs. the Giants due to a couple of botched punt returns.
The third home defeat was 26-3 near midseason, also to the G-Men, then
reigning Super Bowl champs. It was three games later that second-year QB
Colin Kaepernick stepped in after Alex Smith suffered a concussion. The 49ers
got only a 24-24 tie with St. Louis that afternoon. Since then, they are 5-2 SU
(4-3 vs. the spread) with the fast-learning Karpernick at the controls, with the
former Nevada “Pistol” pilot adding a new dimension (415 YR; 6.6 ypc) to the
S.F. offense and keeping former starter Alex Smith (70.2%, 13 TDs, 5 ints.)
idling on the sidelines.
The main question in this game is whether playoff neophyte Kaepernick can
keep the Niners on top of a Green Bay team paced by Rodgers, who continues
to play at an MVP level with 84 TDs and only 14 ints. the last two regular
seasons. Moreover, this game is even a little more meaningful for Rodgers, a
northern California native (from Chico, in the northern Central Valley) and
University of California alum who was passed over in the 2005 draft, going 24
th
after his favorite team, the 49ers, chose Smith No. 1 overall. Rodgers has since
carried a chip on his shoulder for that slight, with great effectiveness. (Rodgers’
current coach, Mike McCarthy, was offensive coordinator of S.F. at the time).
There exists the feeling in this game that the outcome will be decided in the
“pits,” just like in the season opener between these two teams, when the 49ers
dominated the line of scrimmage in a 30-22 triumph, out-rushing the Packers
186 to 45, with Frank Gore leading the way with 112 yards on the ground. Smith,
of course, was the S.F. QB that day.
However, the S.F. offense has “morphed” since then, with Kaepernick (10
TDs, only 3 ints.) proving himself with impressive wins at New Orleans and New
England. Kaepernick’s running dimension and strong arm, plus the recent
speed addition of rookie LaMichael James as a change-of-pace back, have
allowed Harbaugh to expand the playbook. But the 49ers have lost some of
their firepower since, with WR Mario Manningham, backup RB Kendall Hunter,
and WR/PR Kyle Williams all out with injuries.
Of great concern to G.B. must be the 51 sacks allowed in 2012 by the Packer
OL, which has gone through several variations TY, often exposing the mobile,
but wary Rodgers. And S.F. OLB Aldon Smith ascended to all-star status with
19½ sacks.
But the Packers—with Rodgers and his outstanding receivers—are a
formidable underdog force. And the Green Bay defense is a staunch outfit with
future Hall of Famer Woodson adding his versatility and experience. OLBs Erik
Walden & Clay Matthews (13 sacks in 12 games TY) did a great job last week
keeping Adrian Peterson and Minny QB Webb bottled up. If they play a similar
game this week, the edge must go to Rodgers, now 6-2 in the playoffs (3-1 as
a visitor), over Kaepernick in his first NFL postseason start.
With both kickers struggling in the regular season (S.F.’s David Akers 29 of
42, G.B.’s Mason Crosby 21 of 33), might also take a look at the "under" on the
slow track at Candlestick.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

8:00PM Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
[111] Green Bay Packers +3 -110

2:00PM NC Greensboro vs Western Carolina
[688] Western Carolina -8 -110

8:00PM Indiana State vs Southern Illinois
[653] Indiana State -2.5 -110

7:35PM Houston Rockets vs Philadelphia 76ers
[509] OVER 202 -110

GOODFELLAS

4:30PM Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos
[110] Denver Broncos -9 -108

5:00PM Middle Tennessee State vs UL Monroe
[607] Middle Tennessee State -14.5 -110

7:00PM Central Michigan vs Toledo
[635] Central Michigan +7.5 -110

3:00PM Tulane vs SMU
[574] SMU PK -110

7:00PM CS Northridge vs Cal Irvine
[640] Cal Irvine -6.5 -110

PERRY

ENGLAND PREMIER- ASTON VILLA/SOUTHAMPTON FC OVER 2.5 -130 (10AM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Points

*Denver over Baltimore by 14
The Ravens got dealt a bad hand having to play in the early Saturday game after
dispatching Indianapolis at home Sunday. Not only do the Ravens travel to the
high altitude of Denver, but will be on short rest. That’s not the only problem the
Ravens encounter against the rested Broncos. Baltimore is not a good road team.
The Ravens haven’t been sharp losing and failing to cover in four of their last six
games. Baltimore’s defensive isn’t close to being elite anymore. The Ravens met
four playoff teams outside of their division and allowed 30 points to the Patriots,
31 to the Redskins, 34 to the Broncos and 43 to the Texans. Ray Lewis, Terrell
Suggs and Haloti Ngata are all playing hurt. They aren’t going to be able to stop
Peyton Manning, who at 36 had one of his greatest seasons. Manning threw 37
touchdown passes with a 105.8 quarterback rating. Only Aaron Rodgers ranked
higher. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker emerged as one of the NFL’s top two
or three receiver tandems. The Ravens’ secondary hasn’t been the same since losing cornerback Lardarius Webb in Week 6. Denver ranked No. 2 in total defense
and fourth in scoring defense holding foes to 18.1 points per game. Thanks to
Manning and an excellent defense, the Broncos are the hottest team with 11
straight wins going 8-3 ATS. The Broncos rolled past the Ravens 34-17 on the
road in mid-December. The game was more lopsided than the final score as the
Ravens trailed 31-3 in the fourth quarter. It was the ninth straight time Manning
has defeated Baltimore, although first with Denver. Joe Flacco is the only quarterback in NFL history to make the playoffs during his first five years. Flacco has won
four road playoff matchups. Still, Flacco has a strong history of playing much better at home. His road touchdown-to-interception ratio was just 7-to-5 this season.
Flacco relies heavily on Ray Rice, who has been held under 79 yards rushing in six
of his last nine games. Flacco can expect pressure from Von Miller and Elvis
Dumervil. The duo combined for 29.5 sacks and 12 forced fumbles helping
Denver tie for the lead in sacks with 52. Flacco killed his team in the first meeting against Denver getting picked off by Chris Harris near the goal line with 15
seconds left in the first half. Harris returned the interception 98 yards for the
touchdown. Add it all up and you find the Broncos with the superior quarterback,
defense, special teams with punter Britton Colquitt and dangerous returner
Trindon Holliday, while also owning a huge situational edge being rested at home
while Baltimore travels on a short week. DENVER 30-16.

Green Bay over *San Francisco by 6
Given a full deck of his top wide receivers plus the emergence of DuJuan Harris at
running back, Aaron Rodgers is poised to put up significant points against any
defense – even San Francisco’s excellent stop unit. The NFL’s top-rated passer has
a 39-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Only Drew Brees threw more touchdown passes than Rodgers. Unlike last season, the Packers are peaking at the right
time going 10-2 in their last 12 games and with Charles Woodson returning to
upgrade their defense. While the Packers are healthier than they’ve been all season,
the 49ers’ offensive depth took a hit with season-ending injuries to wideout Mario
Manningham and running back Kendall Hunter. Defensively, the 49ers may be
without lineman Justin Smith, the key to their run defense. Smith suffered a torn
triceps injury late in the year and would be far less effective even if he were to play.
Aldon Smith failed to record a sack the last three weeks of the season with Justin
Smith out after piling up 19.5 during the first 13 games. The 49ers are one of the
few teams, too, with a worse kicking problem than Green Bay. Normally reliable
David Akers is suffering through a career-worst slump and could even be replaced
by noted choke artist Billy Cundiff. The 49ers defeated the Packers, 30-22, in
Green Bay during Week 1. Both teams are so much different now that it’s hard to
draw anything from that first meeting. Green Bay is using much more no-huddle
and has different running backs, while the 49ers made the quarterback switch
from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick, who will be making his first postseason
start. The 49ers actually have gotten a little top-heavy passing with Kaepernick.
Michael Crabtree has come on to grab 19 passes for 344 yards and score four
touchdowns during the past three games. Still, San Francisco quarterbacks have
combined for just one 300-yard passing game. The 49ers relied on Frank Gore in
their opening week win against Green Bay. Gore remains a gifted, physical runner.
But he is not in the class of Adrian Peterson, who the Packers held to less than 100
yards in last Saturday’s playoff win over Minnesota. The Packers are 13-4 ATS
against opponents with a winning record. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last
three playoff road games, which came two years ago when the won the Super Bowl.
The Packers are used to playing winter games outdoors in tricky weather. San
Francisco’s defense allowed a combined 76 points to the Patriots and Seahawks
during two of its last three games. The Packers are peaking. The 49ers aren’t.
Kaepernick is a wild card. Rodgers is the real deal. GREEN BAY 26-20.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Reporter

*DENVER over BALTIMORE by 8
With the Broncos favored by -9.5 and the Total set at 45, the “spread score” for the
game calls for the Ravens to score only 18 points, which would be their smallest
“spread score” of the season. But since they were held to 18 or less four times
in eight road games this season, and to 17 by Denver in Baltimore, it’s not out
of line. When you watch the Ravens play offense, you’re really not sure if they
are holding back something for later, or if quarterback Joe Flacco has a ceiling.
They didn’t need to pile on points last Sunday vs. the Colts, who never got into
the end zone against their defense. In the fourth quarter, they were managing the
game, looking ahead, and not concerned with being flashy. At least, that’s how
it seemed. The Ravens were also playing that game against ex-Ravens insiders
on the Colts’ coaching staff, who could exploit weaknesses they knew the best.
But it didn’t work out for the Colts because a) the Ravens are a good team, and
b) the Colts lacked the overall talent and experience. Denver has a lot more talent
and experience, and they certainly have every reason to be confident after they
strolled into Baltimore on December 16 to win 34-17 in a game that wasn’t as
close as the lopsided score indicates (17-0 at the half, 31-3 after three quarters).
But let’s analyze that game more closely: The Ravens went 3-and-out on all four
first-quarter series, with one of the third-down plays a lost fumble by Flacco.
Denver needed 11 plays (4:56 time elapsed) to gain 45 yards and a field goal off
that turnover. Denver also used 11 plays (4:12 on the clock) for their next score,
a touchdown. Trailing 10-0 nearing the half, Flacco had Baltimore on the Denver
4. Then, he played Moron Ball and Denver DB Chris Harris returned an interception 96 yards for a touchdown. Instead of the realistic 10-7 score, it was 17-0.
In the third quarter, Peyton Manning threw a 51-yard TD pass to Eric Decker on
the Broncos’ first possession, 24-3. After a lousy Ravens punt and a good return,
Denver started on a short field at the Baltimore 39 and scored another TD, 31-3.
Denver was good enough to do that. Are they good enough to line up and do it that
dominantly again? DENVER, 24-16.

BEST BET
GREEN BAY over *SAN FRANCISCO by 8
This is still a passing league, so the proven passing team – not the upstart passing team San Francisco – should probably be favored. As much as everyone
wants to love the 49ers’ new starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick, he didn’t
play against the Packers’ defense in the season-opening win that the 49ers
scored in Green Bay. He’ll be going against defensive coordinator Dom Capers’
3-4 front and famed, ball-hawking press coverage for the first time. Like Joe
Webb of the Vikings was doing last Saturday night. That didn’t work out well.
Granted, Kaepernick has a solid running back and pass blocker, Frank Gore, to
help him negotiate the mine field. Wait -- so did Webb, with Adrian Peterson. The
49ers’ QB also has big receivers to match up against some smaller Packers’
defensive backs who might be able to cover well but still not prevent an athletic
grab or two. Kaepernick also has escapability and the ability to make yards from
nothing. But it all happens very fast out there, with lots of instant decisions to
make. Will he throw when he should run? Will he run when he should throw?
Will he see the defensive back attempting to jump the route, or throw it right to
him? Make a mistake against the Packers, and you can trail 14-0, which was
the first-quarter lead that San Francisco had on this field against New Orleans
in the playoffs last season, a lead which didn’t hold up and required a final-drive
comeback TD by their offense because their pass defense – which from time
to time we have mentioned was overrated – couldn’t stop Drew Brees and the
Saints once New Orleans untracked from its slow start. The 49ers’ best defensive lineman, Justin Smith, could be returning to play despite tearing a triceps
tendon in December. Will he play like the real Justin Smith, or like, say, Justin
(Invisible) Tuck? Remember what Green Bay had on deck when they lost the
opener 30-22 to the 49ers? A Thursday game against the NFC North rival Bears.
In the NFL, it’s not who you play, it’s when you play them. Priorities, man. “It’s
one game,” Rodgers said following the Week 1 loss. “This is a team that was in
the NFC championship last year. It’s a good team. Hopefully we see them down
the road in the playoffs.” There you go. GREEN BAY, 30-22.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

steven nover

---

Play: Baltimore (+10 -115) Line

The combination of the Ravens and road hasn't been a good one. But Baltimore is playoff road-tested under John Harbaugh with a winning spread mark in eight away games.

The Ravens' defense isn't nearly what it was in the past, but it still has good players and has gotten healthier with the return of Ray Lewis, Dannell Ellerbee and Bernard Pollard. That's 244 tackles. All three missed the Dec. 16 game when the Broncos beat the Ravens, 34-17.

A lot is being made of Denver crushing Baltimore as the game was more lopsided than the final score. However, the Ravens were right in there but couldn't overcome a possible 14-point turnaround when Joe Flacco was intercepted at the goal line and the interception was returned 98 yards for a touchdown.

Since that game, Flacco has not committed a turnover. The Broncos have a solid offense and defense. But I'm not convinced they are a dominant team that can beat a prideful, playoff-tested opponent by double-digits. Denver picked up six of its victories playing division patsies Oakland, Kansas City and San Diego while also beating Cleveland.

Beating those lower tier opponents can built up misleading statistics. I see the Ravens, with their experienced proven leadership, stepping up and keeping this matchup close.

Play: Green Bay (+3)
Unlike last season, the Packers are peaking at the right time. Aaron Rodgers has his full complement of wideouts and DuJuan Harris has emerged to give Green Bay its most effective running back this season.

Rodgers is the best quarterback in football. Given his vast array of weapons, he can put up points on any defense, including the 49ers. San Francisco's defense is very good, but it's slipped during the past three weeks yielding nearly 30 points per game. The 49ers also may be without their best run stopper, Justin Smith. He has a torn triceps and even if he plays he'll be less effective. Aldon Smith hasn't had a sack in the last three games without Smith after having 19 1/2 during the first 16 games.

Green Bay's defense is coming on with the return of Charles Woodson. Colin Kaepernick will be making his first playoff start. Kaepernick's numbers have been trending dowhward as more film of him becomes available and his tendencies become more well known. Look for the Packers' ace defensive coordinator Dom Capers to come up with a number of curve balls to cause Kaepernick to make mistakes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big al
Saturday, Jan. 12
9 straight losing days as we try to get one today.

NFL Selections:
Broncos/Ravens 'over' 46
NEVER LOST PERFECT PLAY: 49ers -3


Passing NBA

NCAA Basketball Selections for Saturday, Jan. 12

3* Dayton PK (rotation #548, 2 pm)
3* Virginia Tech +9.5 (rotation #567, 2:30 pm)
3* Charleston Coll -11 (rotation #692, 4 pm)
3* TCU +19 (rotation #613, 6 pm)
3* Rice +11.5 (rotation #627, 6:30 pm)
3* S. Illinois +2.5 (rotation #654, 8 pm)
3* Illinois St. -11 (rotation #656, 8 pm)
3* SE Missouri St. +7.5 (rotation #713, 8 pm)
Opinion NC State +4 (rotation #532, Noon)
Opinion Mississippi -5 (rotation #648, 8 pm)
Opinion San Francisco +13.5 (rotation #633, 11 pm)