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NCAA Basketball Play of the Day January 12, 2013 7:07 AM by GT Staff
Butler -1 at Dayton
The Dayton Arena is one of the great old college basketball arenas and the Flyers are a slight favorite. But Butler beat then No. 1 Indiana, while Dayton lost to USC! We’ll gladly give the point.
NFL trends for the divisional round playoffs January 11, 2013 11:03 PM
by Bob Christ
PRO FOOTBALL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS SATURDAY, JAN. 12
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Time: 1:30 p.m. PST
Line: Broncos -9½ (46)
Weather: High teens, light snow possible, minimal wind
Facts: For the fourth time in five seasons, the Ravens are playing on short rest in the divisional round vs. a home team coming off its customary bye. Since 1978, visitors in this scenario are 7-19 SU, but 13-13 ATS.
• In Week 15, Denver raced to a 31-3 lead at Baltimore en route to a 34-17 win. It was the Ravens’ worst home loss since Peyton Manning’s Colts won 44-20 in 2007, one of nine straight wins for Manning vs. Baltimore (8-1 ATS).
• Last week in a 24-9 WC victory against Indy, the Ravens became the first team since 2007 to outgain a foe (439-419) despite running at least 30 fewer plays (87-56).
Analysis: The Ravens not only have to travel across two-thirds of the country, but on short rest and after their elderly defenders were on the field for the most plays against them the past five years – and having to rush the passer 57 times. How’s that going to affect their legs while Manning runs the no-huddle?
Baltimore’s two short-rest weeks this season were a 24-23 loser in Philadelphia as a three-point pick and 23-16 winner against Cleveland as a 12½-point choice. Denver, meanwhile, is on an 11-game winning streak (9-2 ATS) and averaging 107.1 yards more than its foes, the best mark for anyone the past two seasons.
Forecast: Broncos 35, Ravens 16
Green Bay Packers (12-5) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
Time: 5 p.m. PST
Line: 49ers -3 (45)
Weather: High 40s, little or no wind
Facts: In SF’s 30-22 Week 1 win in Green Bay, the Packers were held to their worst rushing total of the season (45 yards). The 49ers, meanwhile, had 186, the most by any team vs. GB other than Adrian Peterson’s Vikings.
• Both teams were KO’d in last year’s playoffs by NYG. This season, both were trounced again by the Giants – 38-10 for GB, 26-3 for SF.
• The Packers will face a QB making his first playoff start a second straight game. Last week it was Minnesota’s Joe Webb in a 24-10 win. This time it’s Colin Kaepernick. In Aaron Rodgers’ playoff debut for GB in 2009, he threw for 422 yards in a 51-45 OT loss in Arizona.
Analysis: The only times the 49ers, with an overall plus-9 turnover differential, have lost were when they had a negative margin, so mistake-free football will be their mantra. And sure, Rodgers has been sensational of late, but in his past six games he’s played five times vs. teams with a defensive passer rating of 24th or worse. SF’s is rated sixth.
What makes this game a crapshoot is FG kicking. The teams have cornered the market on unreliable PKs. GB’s Mason Crosby has missed 12 tries this season and David Akers 13 for SF. And for good measure, the 49ers signed Billy Cundiff this week (7-for-12). His 58.3 success rate is the worst of them all.
Green Bay +3 at San Francisco: The 49ers had the bye, but here’s where the Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith move really kicks in. Neither is in the class of Aaron Rodgers right now. Plus the Packers finally have a healthy Charles Woodson. PACKERS.
Baltimore +9 at Denver: Ray Lewis had his day in Baltimore as did Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin. But the other Ray (Rice) fumbled twice. He won’t get away with that against an aggressive Denver defense at Mile High. Say goodbye to Lewis and hello to Peyton Manning. BRONCOS.
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Denny the Dog
SATURDAY
Ravens +9 at Broncos: Baltimore beat the Bengals and covered the point spread. I can’t take their Wild Card victory away from them, but I still feel like the Ravens are lucky to even be in the playoffs. I believe the Ravens are fortunate Ray Lewis decided to announce his retirement prior to their game with Cincinnati. The Ravens defense played like their hair was on fire and completely shut down the Bengals.
With Baltimore coming off the huge emotional lift of the Lewis retirement weekend, I think they would need a minor miracle to reach the same high in the mile high city. The Ravens have logged nine straight losses against Peyton Manning. If you were a lawyer you could make a good argument that Denver might be the best team in this entire tournament. The Broncos have won 11 straight and earned a bye week to help heal the wounded.
The Denver defense is ranked No. 1 in the league in preventing third down conversions! Manning has developed a great chemistry with his receivers. Decker and Thomas pose big threats to the Ravens. Manning & Co. carved the Ravens up pretty good in Week 15 at Baltimore, 34-17. It could be worse this week. Lewis was a great player, but his best days are behind him. He went out in style last week in Baltimore. This week Lewis goes out forever. BRONCOS.
Packers +3 at 49ers: This is a rematch of Week 1 when the 49ers won by 8 on the road in Green Bay. San Francisco doesn’t have a great record (1-4) against the Pack, but this has been the toughest game of the four this weekend for me to pick a winner. I did have to agree with Mike McCarthy when he said, “A lot has happened since we played San Francisco. We’re a different team.”
The same could be said for the Niners. They have a new QB that forces Green Bay to prepare totally different than they did in Week 1 for Alex Smith. This game is very close to call. If you put a gun to my head I’d have to bet the Packers simply because of the 3 point line. I made the Niners a 2 point favorite on Sunday night. When you put 3 points in front of me I can’t give a great reason why I wouldn’t take the extra point and the better QB. PACKERS.
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Andy Iskoe
Ravens +9 at Broncos (45.5): No team is hotter than Denver which has won 11 straight games and comes off a week of rest. Only once in their 11 game win streak has an opponent rushed for more than 100 yards. Denver has excelled on both sides of the football during this streak, scoring at least 30 points nine times while holding foes to seven points or less seven times. Baltimore LB Ray Lewis got his wish of a win in his final home game before he retires but that retirement should occur following this game. Denver has too many edges on both sides of the ball, including QB Peyton Manning. And they are fresh after the bye week. DENVER.
Packers +3 at 49ers (45): Both teams have a very similar strength of schedule. For the season the 49ers have the better stats, by a rather solid margin, in yards per play on both sides of the football and especially in the rushing game. The Niners were outgained on a yards per play basis in just two games all season. The Packers were outgained on that same basis in both of its last two games against Minnesota and in seven games overall. This is the game most likely to produce an upset. But the Niners are rested, playing at home and have the better defense. The teams combined to allow just 37 points per game. It’s likely that at least one of these teams will struggle on offense, if not both. UNDER .
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Richard Saber
SATURDAY
Ravens +9 at Broncos (45): On Dec. 16 the Ravens played Denver in Baltimore and got 2½ points. They got crushed 34-17. The Ravens beat the Patriots 31-30 in Baltimore, a team that beat the Broncos 31-21 in New England.
There is just one question to be answered: What team has the best big game QB (Peyton Manning) and the answer is easy. The one thing we do not know is what will the weather be like? It can get very nasty in Denver this time of year so if there is snow in the forecast look for a play on the under in a game in which the the point spread could be decided by a turnover here or there.
I will not bet against Denver even though that +9 looks mighty appealing. Maybe if it goes to +10 they could get me. BRONCOS -3 on teaser.
Packers +3 at 49ers (45): I was sitting at Palace Station making my horse donations when this line went up in the sports book. Here comes “Dickie Two Dimes” running over yelling and screaming “Are they nuts? Wrong favorite! Wrong favorite!”
The bottom line is Two Dimes is the nut, but anyhow let’s get to the meat and potatoes. Revenge will be in the air as the 49ers beat the Packers on opening day in Green Bay 30-22. Even though the Packers will travel cross country and play a rested 49ers team they will get revenge. Maybe Two Dimes really was right. PACKERS.
Take #584 California (-5.5) over Washington State (4 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 11)
Take #558 Colorado (-2.5) over UCLA (6 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 11)
Take #661 Memphis (-7) over UAB (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 11)
Jimmy Boyd 1/12
5* (CBB) San Francisco +14
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4*s
(CBB) Southern Miss -12.5
(CBB) Illinois Chicago +6
(NBA) Charlotte Bobcats/Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5
(NBA) Chicago Bulls -8.5
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3*s
(CBB) IUPUI Ft Wayne +12
(CBB) Austin Peay +10.5
(NBA) LA Clippers/Orlando Magic UNDER 198.5
(NBA) Detroit Pistons -2
(NFL) Baltimore Ravens +9
(NFL) Green Bay Packers +3
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