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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Divisional Round
by Jason Logan
Each week we take a look at some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL in order to find hidden betting value. Here are four mismatches you may not have considered when capping the NFL Divisional Round:
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 45.5)
Seahawks' replacement leg vs. Falcons’ bend-but-don’t-break defense
Seattle’s postseason hopes could be riding on the dusty leg of Ryan Longwell, who was added to the roster to replace injured kicker Steven Hauschka this week. Longwell hasn’t played since last season, when he went 22 of 28 on FG attempts and lost his job with the Vikings.
The Falcons defense doesn’t give up much inside the 20-yard line. They rank third in red-zone touchdowns allowed (1.2 per game) and sit 10th in red-zone scoring chances (2.6 per game). In the final game of the season, Atlanta forced Tampa Bay to settle for three FGs.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5, 47.5)
Texans’ low battery vs. Patriots' high-powered offense
Houston’s offense has hit the wall, scoring an average of just under two touchdowns per game in the last three contests. The Texans mustered only 14 points in a blowout loss to the Pats in Week 14, and one of those TDs came after a late interception in New England territory.
Houston has had a tough time punching it in, scoring a TD in just 25 percent of its red-zone trips in that three-game stretch. The Texans were 1 for 4 inside the 20-yard line in last weekend’s win over Cincinnati. New England, on the other hand, is tops in the league in red-zone TD percentage (70%) and averages 4.2 touchdowns per game, another NFL best. -
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Divisional Round
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of this weekend’s playoff action.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 45.5)
The Seahawks have ripped off six consecutive victories and turned in an impressive performance last weekend, erasing an early 14-0 deficit in Washington to eliminate the Redskins 24-14. Seattle has allowed the fewest points in the league (15.3 per game) and has shaken its reputation as a team unable to win away from CenturyLink Field by prevailing in its last three road games. But the Seahawks have some injury concerns as both DE Chris Clemons (knee) and kicker Steven Hauschka (calf) sustained injuries in last week’s win and are on injured reserve. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs in the past four seasons and were destroyed in their last two postseason appearances by a combined 72-23. Seattle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston at New England (-9.5, 47.5)
Houston was blown out 42-14 at New England in Week 14. Tom Brady threw touchdown passes on the first three drives for the high-powered Patriots, who bolted to a 21-0 lead and nullified the Texans' ability to control the game on the ground through Arian Foster. New England was without an injured Rob Gronkowski, who finished tied for fourth in the NFL with 11 TD catches and is healthy now. The Texans brushed aside their poor finish to the season and limited Cincinnati to 198 total yards in last Saturday's 19-13 wild-card victory. The Patriots are 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games.Comment
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NFL Prop Shop: Divisional Round's Best Prop Plays
by Sean Murphy
We enjoyed a 2-1-1 Wild Card Weekend at the NFL Prop Shop, successfully building on a 3-1 Week 17 card.
Now our focus shifts to the Divisional Round, where three of the four matchups are rematches from the regular season. Here are four prop picks to consider.
Most Rushing Yards
Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)
This one essentially boils down to having more faith in the Broncos defense than the Ravens. When playing from behind on the road, we've seen the Ravens abandon the running game time and time again under the guidance of head coach John Harbaugh. Who's to say that doesn't happen again Saturday?
Knowshon Moreno quietly carried the ball at least 20 times in five of the Broncos’ last six games. He was limited to only 15 carries in Week 17 against the Chiefs, only due to the lopsided nature of that game. He'll find plenty of room to run against an aging Ravens front seven and will be given a heavy workload with Willis McGahee still sidelined.
Take: Moreno
Arian Foster (Houston Texans) vs. Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots)
It's no secret that the Texans will need a big game from Arian Foster if they're to pull off a shocker in Foxboro Sunday. I'm not convinced that he'll be able to rekindle past playoff magic against an underrated Patriots run defense that allows just 3.9 yards per rush.
Stevan Ridley doesn't get a lot of fanfare but the fact is he ran for nearly 1,300 yards during the regular season. He gained 72 yards on only 18 carries against the Texans in December and should the Pats build a lead, he'll likely get at least 20 touches.
Take: Ridley
Most Pass Receptions
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) vs. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)
We're getting tremendous value with Vernon Davis in this matchup, largely due to the fact that he was held to just one reception in each of the 49ers’ final four regular season games. Let's not forget that Jermichael Finley also saw an inconsistent workload during the regular season and comes into this one dealing with a hamstring injury.
Davis really stepped up in the postseason last year and while I certainly don't expect him to reach those heights again, I do believe he's worth a shot matched up against another hit-or-miss tight end.
Take: Davis
Most Sacks
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Russell Wilson may be the more mobile quarterback but Matt Ryan was only sacked 10 times over the Falcons’ last eight games and I expect the Falcons offensive line to hold its own once again Sunday. The Seahawks will be without one of their best pass rushers in Chris Clemons too.
Atlanta will have all hands on deck. It may surprise you to find out that Wilson has been sacked a whopping 11 times in the Seahawks’ last two games. Inside a loud Georgia Dome, the Falcons defensive front could have a field day.
Take: AtlantaComment
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Prediction Machine:
Paul's Pick: Seattle +2.5 @ Atlanta (Covers 60.4%)
Even at 1 PM ET/10 AM PT, the Seattle Seahawks are the better team and have the most exploitable advantages in this matchup with the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons. Such advantages should ultimately lead to an outright, "upset" victory for the Seahawks.
Seattle is 12-5 straight-up and 11-5-1 against-the-spread versus the sixth toughest NFL schedule to-date. En route to that impressive record and the top Wild Card spot in the NFC, the Seahawks won five of their six games against NFL playoff teams, including upset wins against Green Bay (whether they truly "won" that game or not, they were in position to have a chance to win it at the end), New England and San Francisco. Also, upset victories by Seattle over Dallas and at Chicago ultimately kept those teams out of the postseason. It is obvious to note that Seattle is 8-0 at home and just 4-5 on the road, but, as we discussed last week, the team had the ball with a chance to win each of those games in the final two minutes and, as crucial rookies like Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner have improved over the course of the season, the Seahawks have now won three straight games away from home.
The Seahawks win in the best way possible - they do everything right. At this point, Seattle has a top ten offense running and passing, the best overall defense in the league, a top five special teams (assuming Ryan Longwell does not ruin that - at the very least the Seahawks are tremendous in the return game) and they are healthy for this time of the year. Seattle finished third in yards-per-play margin (+0.76) and first in points-per-play margin (+0.16) - against a very difficult schedule.
Atlanta is 13-3 SU and 9-6-1 ATS against the 26th ranked NFL schedule (by our metrics - purely by opponents' wins and losses, it was the easiest NFL schedule). Even given the league's best record, Atlanta finished seventh in our NFL Power Rankings, which is essentially where the Falcons spent most of the season. Led by Matt Ryan and his trio of weapons in the passing game - Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez - Atlanta has the fourth most efficient passing offense in the league. That certainly means something - especially at home on turf. It means less, though, when facing the league's best and deepest secondary (which Seattle has) and when that is the only elite element to Atlanta's team. In fact, even with that schedule, Atlanta was out-gained on a per-play (-0.12 margin) basis over the course of the season. The Falcons were not incredibly efficient over the course of the season, but they did win their close games (two wins by fewer than three points is not a terrible sign) by winning the turnover battle and forcing opponents to hurt themselves. That will be difficult to do against a team that does more things better and is equally adept winning the turnover margin in a game. Atlanta looks like a version of the Indianapolis Colts from this season that played in a more winnable division to get an extra win or two and secure home field advantage. That's not really a good thing.
Ultimately, the scariest number for Falcons' fans should be 4.8. Atlanta has allowed 4.8 yards-per-carry on the ground (fourth worst in the league) and Seattle has averaged 4.8 yards-per-carry on the ground (fifth best in the league - while running the ball a league-high 55% of the time). Teams averaged 4.3 yards-per-carry this season. When one of the relative best that proved it could move the ball against the best faces one of the relative worst that struggled to stop weaker teams, the resulting outcome is not that Seattle will run for 4.8 yards-per-carry, it's that they have a really good chance to top five yards-per-carry and put this game away with big plays on the ground.
According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Seattle wins outright over Atlanta 54.6% of the time and by an average score of 22.1-20.0 As 2.5 point underdogs winning straight-up, the Seahawks cover the spread 60.4% of the time. This warrants an $84 play from a normal $50 player. The UNDER (46) is almost a normal play. At 56.7% to cover, it would justify a $45 play from a normal $50 player.
Paul's Pick: Houston +9.5 @ New England (Covers 60.1%)
On December 10, the Houston Texans took one of the most beat up teams in the NFL into Foxboro, MA for a Monday night tilt with the New England Patriots. New England was just more than a field goal favorite to win the game. We projected a six point win for the New England Patriots to give us a "normal" (greater than 57% chance) pick on the Patriots to cover. New England won the game 42-14. Patriots win and we win.
I am glad that happened. I am glad that happened in the national spotlight of Monday night. And I really am glad that journalists that people have heard of write hyperbolic (that's the kind word for what this is) pieces like this. What was expected to be essentially a field goal matchup almost exactly a month ago is now considered, by NFL standards, an expected blowout. The line has moved six points. To be fair, I would like all of this even more if the line would move to +10 and this is still not even the strongest ATS opinion on a day that involves just two games, but we will take +9.5 as what happened on December 10 has directly led to value in the Texans to keep this game closer than perceived.
The Texans are actually healthier than they were December 10 - especially in the secondary, which aided in Tom Brady's 21-of-35 for 296 yards, four touchdowns and no interception day. They are not playing their third road game in a row (Houston was at home last Saturday). There is no doubt about the motivation that both teams have to win (Houston had already secured a playoff spot by that Week 14 game). And there is also the fact that New England's last six playoff losses (all coming since the Patriots' last Super Bowl win) have come in regular season rematches. We again project a six point win by the Patriots and this time we get value on the other side.
Houston is 13-4 SU and 10-6-1 ATS against the 27th ranked NFL strength-of-schedule. The Texans finished the season as our sixth ranked overall team and are above average in each of our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency categories. While being consistently better than average though not elite in just about everything may not be conducive to blowing opponents out, having few weaknesses also makes it less likely that a team will be blown out.
One way that Houston has succeeded over the course of this season is in a facet that is of the utmost importance when playing the Patriots - they get to the quarterback. Houston ranks fifth in the league with a sack rate (sacks-per-pass-play-faced) of 7%. Each of New England's four losses this season and six of its seven failed covers came against defensive-oriented teams with above average sack rates. This continues a pattern we have seen for several seasons as the Patriots have struggled against teams like the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers (straight-up) and the Miami Dolphins (ATS) that are largely built around putting pressure on the quarterback.
On the season, New England is 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS versus the 25th ranked NFL schedule to-date. The Patriots finished the season just one spot ahead of Houston in our NFL Power Rankings (fifth). With Tom Brady at quarterback they have a top five passing offense. They also, somewhat surprisingly given recent seasons' performances, have a top five run defense. However, New England is average in run efficiency (ranking 16th in our metrics) and 25th in pass defense. With an excellent pass rush and a more than adequate passing game (built around the play action), there are opportunities for Houston to keep this game close throughout.
According to 50,000 simulations of Texans @ Patriots, New England wins straight-up 64.8% of the time and by an average score of 28.7-22.9. As 9.5 point underdogs, Houston covers the spread 60.1% of the time, which is confident enough to recommend an $81 wager from a $50 player. It is actually slightly more likely that Houston wins this game straight-up than that New England wins by two touchdowns or more. As it has in 73% of New England's games this season, the OVER (47.5) is more likely than not to hit. In this case, 56.5% of the time the total goes over, which warrants a $43 play value for a normal $50 player.Comment
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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL - DIVISIONAL ROUND
7-UNIT SUPER-HYDRAS
SEAHAWKS +3 (-125) at falcons (Sunday - 10am)
TEXANS +10 (-120) at patriots (Sunday - 1:30pm)Comment
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Point Spread - Pick
Seattle Seahawks (12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)
2013 NFC Divisional Playoffs
Date/Time: Sunday, January 13th, 2013, 1:00 p.m. EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga.
TV: FOX
by Badger, Football Handicapper.
Point Spread: Sea. +2.5/Atl. -2.5
Over/Under Total: 45.5
The Seattle Seahawks have taken care of the first step of their all-road NFC playoff journey this postseason, but that road will turn South to the Georgia Dome this Sunday when they take on the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons in an NFC Divisional Playoff game on Fox.
Seattle converted the first stop of their hopefully long road playoff journey with a, 24-14, victory over the Washington Redskins in the Wild Card round last weekend. Running back Marshawn Lynch and QB Russell Wilson combined for 224 yards rushing and the defense held an injured RG3 in check as the Seahawks powered back from an early 14-point deficit to beat the Redskins and win their first road playoff game in 30 years.
Now the Seahawks have earned the task of taking on the top-seeded 13-3 Falcons at home in the Georgia Dome, a building where Atlanta went 7-1 this season with their only loss coming in the form of a mail-it-in, 22-17, loss in a means-nothing season finale to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two weeks ago.
Despite 13 wins and a strong season, a lot of questions still surround the Falcons going into their opening Divisional playoff game Sunday. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs under head coach Mike Smith and with Matt Ryan playing quarterback, including a one-and-done performance the last time the Falcons were the No. 1 seed in the NFC (in 2010), so both Smith and Ryan will have to remove the 300-lb. monkey off their backs against the red-hot Seahawks who have won six in a row.
Those questions still hanging around the Falcons have also had an affect on the opening point spread for Sunday's contest too, with Atlanta only opening the game as slim 1-point favorites at home in round two. With most of the early money tilted in favor of the Falcons as small home favorites, most sportsbooks have since moved the number up to minus -2.5 to stop the flood of Atlanta money at the window.
The over/under total opened at 45.5 and can still be found there even though the number is still less than 24 hours old. The sportsbooks that have moved off the opening total have adjusted it up to 46, although you can still find plenty of books sitting at 45.5 still depending on your preference.
In addition to the demons the Falcons carry in regards to their playoff woes under Smith and Ryan, there's also some strange statistical anomalies that may plague the Falcons offense in this game.
Ryan and the Falcons have always been known as a solid home team in the dome, but he certainly didn't play that way this season. This year Ryan threw for 71.9 % and 21 touchdowns in his eight road games, but only hit 65.1 % and 11 TDs at home in the Georgia Dome. Ryan's "struggles at home and lack of results also hurt the overall offense, since the Falcons scored 27.9 points per game on the road, as opposed to just 24.5 ppg at home this season.
Atlanta also played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, as the winning percentage of the Falcons opponents was a meager .422 in 2012 (108-148). They did go 2-0 against the two playoff teams they played during the regular season (27-21 over Denver in week 2, 24-17 over Washington week 5), so one could argue they played the schedule they were given and took care of business.
Don't underestimate the fact that the Falcons will be playing with a huge chip on their shoulders too, as they will hear all week long from everyone and their brother that they haven't won a playoff game yet and will get little respect for most of the talking head "experts" on TV.
Atlanta and Ryan will be facing a Seahawks defense that is starting to look like a unit on a mission for a championship. After giving up a quick 14 points and some early yards to the Redskins last week, the defense tightened and shut down the Redskins running game in the second half. The only issue with the Seattle defense is the possible loss of defensive end Chris Clemons. Clemons, the Seahawks sack leader with 11.5, left the Wild Card game early and it is feared he may have torn his ACL (MRI results are still pending as of press time). If Clemons is indeed lost for the remainder of the postseason, rookie Bruce Irvin will be counted on to replace him. Irvin is solid in his pass-rush ability, but at 248-lbs., you can expect the Falcons to run right at him a lot if he has to play on early downs all game long.
The good news is that the Seahawks shouldn't have much trouble getting their running game established on offense. Atlanta gave up 123 yards (21st in NFL) a game rushing and a huge 4.8 yards per carry during the season, a tally both Lynch and Wilson will surely try and take advantage of come Sunday.
Atlanta's defense will be at full strength however, as the bye week did a ton of good in healing up injuries as end John Abraham (ankle) and defensive backs Dunta Robinson (concussion), Asante Samuel (shoulder) and William Moore (hamstring) are all listed as probable and are likely to go on Sunday against the Seahawks. If there is one matchup to watch for on Sunday it's in the trenches, where Seattle is using a combo of J.R. Sweezy and John Moffitt at right guard. Sweezy is a former defensive tackle moved over to offense, and Moffitt has bounced on and off the inactive list all season, so look for the Falcons to try and take advantage of the weakness with an active and strong game out of DT Vance Walker (3 sacks) inside.
These two teams met last season in Seattle in what turned into a nail-biting, 30-28, win for the visiting Falcons. Of course Wilson wasn't in a Seahawks uniform yet, so any comparisons or overemphasis on that game is a mistake, but it should be noted that Lynch was held to just 24 yards on eight carries in the loss. However, Atlanta held a 20-point lead early in the second half and the Seahawks were forced to abandon the run as they played in catch-up mode for the final 25 minutes of the game.
It should be noted that the underdog is a strong 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings. Seattle is red hot right now both on the field and as a wager (5-1 ATS in L6), and of course Atlanta has struggled in the playoffs (0-4 ATS in L4 playoff games), so the betting trends are also going against the Falcons at home this week.
The over also looks like decent trend play on Sunday. Not only is the over 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between the Seahawks and Falcons, but the over is also 5-1 in Seattle's last six playoff games (only under was last week's game vs. Wash.) and 3-1-1 in the Falcons last five playoff games as well.
Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: My take here is that Atlanta peaked really early in the season and Seattle is peaking right now. Regular season records don't matter anymore; it's all about who's hot and that team is Seattle.
I'm betting the Seahawks plus the points.Comment
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Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Point Spread - Pick
Houston Texans (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)
AFC Divisional Playoff
Date/Time: Sunday January 13th, 2013. 4:30PM Eastern
Where: Gillette Stadium Foxboro, M.A.
TV: CBS
by Jay, Football Handicapper
Point Spread: Hou +9.5/NE -9.5
Over/Under Total: 48
The road to Super Bowl makes a stop in Foxboro this Sunday when the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans inside Gillette Stadium. The visiting Texans took down the Bengals in a gritty 19-13 grudge match last week to advance to this week's AFC Divisional Playoff Game. Houston's defense flexed their muscles last week by holding Cincinnati to just 198 total yards in a dominating performance. This week J.J. Watt and the Houston defense will face a huge test against Tom Brady's quick striking Patriots offense when both teams collide for a chance to earn a ticket to the AFC Championship Game.
New England's entire team should be well rested following their bye last week which should give even bigger worry towards that Houston defense. The Patriots offense led the NFL this season by averaging 427 yards and 34.8 points per game. Perhaps more importantly QB Tom Brady blasted this same Texans' defense with 4 passing touchdowns inside Gillette Stadium back in week 14 in route to a 42-14 blowout. Beyond being arguably the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL, Brady has had one of his best seasons on paper with 4,827 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just 8 picks.
WR Wes Welker leads the team with 118 catches for 1,354 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, Brandon Lloyd and Rob Gronkowski have both played large roles towards the offensive success with a combined 1,700 yards and 15 touchdowns. Clearly the Patriots have tons of weapons in the passing game and one of the greats behind center. So how can the Texans slow down this offense and avoid any week 14 repeat performances? For Houston's defense, everything starts up front along the defensive line led by J.J. Watt. Watt led the NFL with 20.5 sacks this season just two shy of Michael Strahans NFL record. It will be absolutely imperative that Watt, Antonio Smith, and the rest of the guys up front keep pressure on Brady in effort to keep the Patriots offense from posting another big number.
Currently the Patriots are listed as 9.5 point favorites over the Texans and that number could easily move to double digits by game time. Over 2/3s of the betting public are laying the points with the Patriots with that week 14 blowout fresh in everyone's memory.
Still, the Texans showed some signs of hope last week by the way they were able to run the football with Arian Foster against a tough Cincinnati defense. Foster carried the ball for a season high 32 carries resulting in 140 yards and a touchdown. Foster's consistency on the ground helped Houston gain twice as many first downs as Cincinnati (24-12) and dominate the time of possession battle by eating up just less than 39 minutes of game play. If Houston can dial up that recipe again this week and keep the Patriots offense on the sideline, the Texans would be a strong pick to cover the spread. Throw in a few big plays between QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson (112 receptions, 1,598 yards, and 4 touchdowns) and a flat out upset comes into the picture as well.
Betting Trends: Houston is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road and just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Patriots. The total has gone under in 5 of Houston's last 6 games. The Patriots have gone over the total in 6 of their last 7 games and 11 of their last 14 home games.
Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: New England's offense showed their ability to move the football with ease in their last meeting against Houston and I expect the same yet again. I understand that the last meeting does not hold any significance in sports betting, but the Patriots offense creates a big mismatch for this Texans defense which will be exploited for the 2nd straight time this Sunday. Additionally, the unsung hero in recent weeks has been the Patriots defense that has given up just 16 points on average over the last 6 outings.
Lay the points and take the easy win. New England -9.5Comment
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NFL DUNKEL
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13
Game 113-114: Seattle at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 139.851; Atlanta 143.547
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 46
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under
Game 115-116: Houston at New England (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.514; New England 140.612
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 10; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+10); OverComment
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DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index
Divisional Round Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 155-92 (.628)
ATS: 122-132 (.480)
ATS Vary Units: 504-701 (.418)
Over/Under: 124-131 (.486)
Over/Under Vary Units: 423-414 (.505)
Sunday, January 13, 2013
NFC Divisional Round
Seattle 25, ATLANTA 18
AFC Divisional Round
NEW ENGLAND 32, Houston 20Comment
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Pointwise
SEATTLE (12-5) at ATLANTA (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 1:00 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: ATLANTA BY 2 -- O/U: 45½
Only game this weekend without same-season revenge factor, but the 2 did meetjust LY (30-28 Falcon win). Atlanta got off to franchise-record 8-0 start, moving itto 11-1, behind Ryan's leadership (4,719 yds, 69%, 32/14). This squad has topped22 pts in 22 of its last 27 games, & is now in post-season play for the 4th time in 5yrs. And there's the rub: 0-3 SU/ATS, with a 72-23 pt deficit the past 2 yrs (29,19pt spread setbacks). The Seahawks are smoking. A 22-7 ATS run (10-3 lately),along with a 194-57 pt edge in their last 5 gms, behind brilliant rookie QB Wilson &bruising RB Lynch, to say nothing of their NFL-best 15 ppg "D". Call minor upset.
RATING: 4: SEATTLE 27 - Atlanta 20
HOUSTON (13-4) at NEW ENGLAND (12-4)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 4:30 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: NEW ENGLAND BY 9½ -- O/U: 49
When these 2 met on Dec 10th, they were the highest rated pair in the NFL, butwhen the dust settled on that contest, there was only 1, as the Pats (-4) jumped toa 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter, & never looked back, in 42-14 win, with the Texansmanaging but a single sustained scoring drive. Houston exhibited total controlover Cincy, in mere 6-pt win (420-198 yd edge), with Schaub/Foster duo again theimpetus. Houston is on a 19-9 ATS run, but will have to be near perfect, if it is tostay with the Pats, who are on a 23-4 SU run, & at 37.8 ppg in their last 9 games.Tom (34/8), Welker (118 catches), etc, & Gronkowski is now back. In a romper.
RATING: 4: NEW ENGLAND 37 - Houston 20Comment
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Playbook Marc Lawrence
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
ATLANTA over Seattle by 6
Tied with Denver for the best regular season record at 13-3, Atlanta has been all but ignored by the public in their ‘who’s going to win the Super Bowl’ conversation. As a result, the Falcons are anxious to prove they are deserving of top-seed honors. Our ‘well-oiled machine’ concurs, offering up a plethora of trends that back the Dirty Birds here. For openers, NFC No. 1 seeds are 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS in playoff openers since 1990, and home teams off a season-ending SU favorite loss are 12-3-1 ATS (Packers and Texans improved those numbers last week). The database also reminds us: home teams in playoff openers off back-to-back ATS losses are 24-6 SU and 22-8 ATS when not laying more than 8 points to a non-division opponent since 1980 (see Texans last week). Atlanta QB Matt Ryan, seldom mentioned in the same breath as Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, owns an outstanding 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS mark at the Georgia Dome off a loss, including 8-0 SUATS off a setback of 6 or more points. No denying that Seattle’s scintillating rookie QB Russell Wilson is on a major roll but head coach Pete Carroll fi nds himself in a tough spot today, going just 1-9 ATS away as a favorite or dog of less than 6 points versus a greater-than .625 adversary. Granted, the Seahawks disposed of the ‘last-year-loser’ syndrome when the overcame a 14-0 defi cit to take down the Redskins last week but road teams in this role are still an awful 20-65 SU and 32-51-2 ATS, including 3-11 SU off a playoff road win. Fans at today’s game will experience climate-controlled comfort in the dome but look for ‘Matty Ice’ to put the big chill on the upstart Seahawks this afternoon.
NEW ENGLAND over Houston by 6
It’s time you learned that the most overhyped myth in the NFL nowadays is “give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare and he will rip you to shreds.” No so, as our powerful database informs us the Hoodie is just 12-18-2 ATS in his career with extra rest, including 2-7-1 ATS in the postseason. Worse, when favored by 3 or more points with rest in the playoffs, boring Bill is 0-7-1 ATS when facing a .600 or greater opponent! In fact, just to confi rm short-term memory loss suffered by delusional Pats fans, New England is a woeful 1-7 ATS its last eight as playoff chalk, and just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in its previous six playoff games. Granted, superstar QB Tom Brady is 13-2 SU against .700 or greater foes in the postseason, but he’s a not-so-impressive 3-8 ATS as a playoff favorite of more than 3 points, including 1-7 ATS versus a .667 or better foe. However, before you mortgage the house to load up on Houston, be advised that the Texans must overcome a pair of daunting scenarios. First, Houie fi ts the same 3-28 SU and 6-24-1 ATS stat faced by the Packers and Ravens (Game Two playoff squads off one win exact at home). The Texans must also conquer ‘domer-outdoor syndrome,’ a change of venue that’s resulted in a 7-29 SU and 9-26 ATS playoff failure. However, considering 39 of the last 46 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 defense – and only TWO Super Bowl winners have owned the league’s worst defense – one must look hard at the defensive edge in this matchup. In the eight games versus common opponents this season, Houston outgained New England by a whopping +86 net YPG. The bottom line: laying this kind of wood into an avenging foe (Pats beat Texans, 42-14, on 12/10) with 57 YPG the better defense could prove harmful to your wealth.Comment
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Powersweep
Divisional Round
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (12-5)
ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3)
ATL snared a 30-28 win at SEA in 2011 as a 5 pt AF in the last meeting. ATL had a 27-7 lead after the initial drive of the 2H but SEA rallied and missed a 61 yd FG as the game ended. Ryan had 291 yds (67%) w/a td while they held RB Lynch to just 24 yds (3.0). ATL hasn't won a playoff game since 2004 (0-4 ATS) and is 7-1 SU/4-4 ATS at home TY where they are -10 ypg (+7 TO's). They have a massive situational edge at home for the 2nd straight game off a bye vs a SEA team that just fl ew out to WAS. SEA is 5-4 SU/ATS on the road TY (+37 ypg +0 TO) and 7-2-1 ATS away vs NDIV foes. ATL is 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS vs the common foes of CAR/WAS/DAL/ARZ/DET with +15 ypg mark (-3 TO's) and a 25-21 avg score. SEA went 3-2 SU/ATS holding a +54 ypg entry (+1 TO) and 21-16 avg score.
Moving to a rookie 3rd RD QB over the touted FA pickup was a surprise move by SEA but it's paid off. From the NE gm on, Wilson has avg'd 209 ypg (65%) w/a stunning 21-4 ratio. Vs top 10 D's he's avg'd 180 ypg (60%) w/a 12-4 ratio thanks to a stellar power run gm behind Lynch who has ten 100 yd rushing gms TY. Despite this being the 1st 16 game ssn for WR Rice, not having a 1,000 yd receiver is more a function of Wilson spreading the ball around and the success of Lynch. SEA has started 6 diff OL combo's TY but LT Okung earned his Pro Bowl berth as he's the only LT to not allow ask TY.
SEA's Tampa-2 style D is built around lean, quick twitch defenders that have missed just 7 gms via st'rs w/4 coming via CB Browner's 4 gm susp as the Seahawks have the leagues best secondary.
The LB unit is solid w/ Wagner and Hill locking down the middle and they are very mobile. SEA's DL is designed to be aggressive and they accept giving up yds on the ground (4.5 ypc) to get to the QB (#14 sks by). SEA has our #9 ST's unit TY thanks to one of the best returners in Leon Washington.
ATL took a big risk replacing its OC/DC prior to the year but it paid off very well. The offense now goes thru Ryan instead of supporting him. Ryan put up career numbers across the board but faced just 3 teams that fi nished w/a top 10 def avg 301 ypg (68%) w/a 10-3 ratio (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS). Ryan has helped White and Jones become ATL's 1st 1,100 yd rec tandem since 1998 with Gonzalez being 70 yds short of ATL's 1st 1,000 yd trio since 1995. ATL's run game hasn't had much if any impact TY as RB Turner has slowed down (3.6). ATL's OL has been ultra-reliable w/4 of 5 OL playing 98.7% of the snaps TY as they had their 5th year of under 30 sks allowed. While ATL's #24 def is a bit misleading (#5 def pts/#2 def ypp) they have struggled for sacks (#27) and have been mauled vs the run (4.8 ypc 29th). On the flip side, ATL's 14-20 ratio is the best in the NFL TY w/a very formidable secondary when healthy.
Overall, DC Nolan has this def playing better than the sum of its parts on all levels. Despite a strong year by Bosher (40.7 net, 37% punts inside 20), ATL has our #16 spec tms unit due to avg return units.
SEA's youth is a big edge here as they can recover faster from the B2B EST games than others. The only team ATL truly dominated was the Giants off back-to-back primetime games and a win vs the worst defense in NFL history. SEA is playing w/house money while ATL will face unrelenting pressure. We'll side w/SEA on a 15-4-1 ATS run as a dog.
RATING: 2: SEAHAWKS (+) OVER FALCONS
HOUSTON TEXANS (13-4)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4)
NE blasted HOU on MNF TY 42-14 as a 4' pt HF. HOU had rattled off 6 straight wins and Belichick used the Texans varsity jackets pictures as motivation. NE had a 419-279 yd edge when HOU conceded defeat mid-4Q by putting Yates on the fi eld down 42-7.
Brady only had 296 yds (70%) w/1 td as the Patriots def held Foster to 46 yds rush (3.1) and rattled Schaub (232, 59%, 1 int). The Texans went 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS on the road TY w/a +45 ypg margin (+7 TO's) and 23-21 avg score. NE went 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS at home TY (+57 ypg, +5 TO's). Both teams played similar skeds w/the only diff being HOU caught the NFC North (1-2-1 ATS) while NE had the NFC West (1-3 ATS).
NE is 1-8 ATS in the playoffs but HOU's inexperience and Belichick w/extra rest plays into the Patriots hands.
HOU continues to work off the ground game of Foster who has over 1,200 yds in each of the L3Y. Schaub only has a 61-30 ratio over that time but it has minimized Andre Johnson's wear and tear. Daniels is at the top of the 2nd tier of rec'g TE's as the Texans spread the ball around after that. Walter is a decent, but not standout, #3 option but the lack of impact from rookies Martin and Posey (16 rec's, 10.8) is disappointing. HOU has a borderline top 10 OL provided RT Newton is healthy. JJ Watt's historic season for HOU (80+ plays at/behind LOS) makes the Texans defense what it is.
He has 15 more sks than the starting OLB's (Barwin/Reed) which is unheard of in a 3-4. The rest of the DL is solid but more valuable in run support. HOU has a very formidable CB tandem with Joseph/Jackson but it's a concern that they have given up a 16-4 ratio in the L7 games. HOU has our #23 spec tms as they have been poor on both sides of KR's.
For the 4th time in his L5Y of full starts, Brady has fi nished with 24 more td's than int. NE's ability to effortlessly shift from the spread to 2 TE to a power running game (3 out of 4Y w/top 12 rush offense) sets them apart from other offenses. Ridley is the 1st 1,200 yd rusher for NE since Corey Dillon in 2004 and he hasn't fully grown into the system yet. NE has the best 2 TE set in the NFL w/Gronkowski being a stronger receiving TE and Hernandez being more well rounded. Welker is the 1st player in NFL history w/5 100 rec seasons and Lloyd has been a strong, but not dominant, addition.
The OL has been dinged a bit due to injuries to Mankins/Vollmer but it's still a physical system oriented unit. NE's #25 def ranking is wildly misleading as they are 4th in yds per pt and tied Belichick's record w/41 takeaways. Wilfork continues to be the fulcrum of the DL with rookie Chandler Jones making a strong impression. The strength of the defense is versatility with Mayo being a rare 3 Dn LB. NE's secondary is a concern but picking up Talib was a great move and McCourty has been stellar moving around. NE's #17 spec teams is due to a mediocre net avg by Mesko who doesn't get to boom it like other P's but NE has excellent coverage/return units.
We expect the public to be infl uenced by the earlier matchup TY and to drive the line up and we want to see how it lands before making a call on the side. NE went 11-4-1 O/U TY and are 19-7-1 O/U vs NDIV foes (HOU 10-5 O/U vs NDIV). Brady gets a defense he knows while Schaub/Foster have been here and will be better prepped. Playoff favorites of 9+ have gone Over in each of the the last 5 games.
RATING 1: OVER TEXANS/PATRIOTSComment
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Nelly's Green Sheet
NFL DIVISONAL GAMES
ATLANTA (-2½) Seattle (45½) 12:00 PM
While Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin got far more attention, Russell Wilson is
the only rookie quarterback to come up with a win in the playoffs this year.
Seattle quickly got down 14-0 last week but the Seahawks held their composure
and dominated defensively the rest of the way, though the limitations of an
injured RGIII certainly helped the cause. Seattle still trailed with just over seven
minutes to go in the game as the Seahawks are limited on offense, even with
some of the big numbers posted late in the season. Atlanta finished with the
NFL’s best record but the Falcons also were a negative yards-per-play team,
allowing more yards than they gained despite a great offense. The Falcons have
been haunted by playoff failures, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion
each of the last two years and Matt Ryan is 0-3 in playoff games, throwing more
interceptions than touchdowns in the three games. Ryan and the offense take
some heat for those failures but Atlanta has allowed 102 points in those three
games. While Atlanta did not have the same incentives down the stretch as
other teams the Falcons were out-gained by at least 88 yards in four of the final
five games of the season The big difference between these teams is in the
running game as Seattle gains nearly five yards per rush and posted nearly
twice as many rushing yards on the season compared with the Falcons. Atlanta
has an elite receiving corps but Seattle allowed less than 200 passing yards per
game this season, holding foes to 57 percent completions. This situation is tricky
for the surging Seahawks with a second straight cross country trip and also
playing in the early time slot after playing the late game on Sunday. Atlanta has
been impressive in home wins over Denver, Dallas, New Orleans, and New York
this season and Atlanta is 33-8 S/U at home since 2008 when Ryan joined the
team. Seattle continues to be a dangerous underdog however and the
Seahawks may simply have the superior team.
SEAHAWKS BY 3
RATING 1: Seattle (+) over Atlanta
NEW ENGLAND (-9) Houston (48½) 3:30 PM
The Patriots look to become the first Super Bowl loser to return to the big game
since the Bills made four straight defeats in the early ‘90s. New England has
been immune to criticism given the past success but this is a team that is just 24
S/U in the last six playoff games while riding an ugly 1-8 ATS run in the
postseason. Tom Brady has thrown 11 interceptions in his last seven playoff
games and the huge +25 turnover margin this season for the Patriots has hidden
a lot of statistical deficiencies. Houston stumbled with losses in three of the final
four games of the regular season, falling down to the #3 seed but the Texans
were the most dominant team last week, crushing Cincinnati statistically and not
allowing a touchdown on defense. In the regular season New England crushed
Houston in early December 42-14 although the statistics were not that lopsided.
That game came in a third straight road game for Houston and fourth road game
in five weeks for a tough situation. Having played in Foxboro and in cold weather
should help the cause the second time around. Houston’s defense was one of
the best in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 219 yards per game and
holding opposing quarterbacks to only 52 percent completions and Andy Dalton
was held to below 50 percent last week. The spread in the first meeting jumped
from -4½ to -5½ and this is a huge adjustment in the same venue just a month
later. Bye week teams in the playoffs are just 9-15 ATS the last six years as it is
no longer the advantage it used to be and this is a huge spread for a playoff
game. The Patriots scored almost 35 points per game this season, still with the
potential to deliver a dominant performance but this is a much tougher match-up
than New England faced in this round last year and Houston was very
formidable in the playoffs vs. Baltimore last season.
PATS BY 4
RATING 2: Houston (+) over New EnglandComment
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Jimmy Boyd
NFL Playoff GOY 5* Seattle Seahawks +2.5
3* Houston Texans +10Comment
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