1-11-13

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latewinners

# 805 Houston OVER 200.5


# 819 Portland OVER 198

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# 821 Lakers OVER 215.5

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# 811 Minnesota UNDER 185

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chris torrissi
5minn
4 atl

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ATS Lock Club

6 CELTICS
4 T-Wolves/Hornets UNDER

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sbb

4-STAR ATLANTA over Utah - Atlanta has too much talent for this losing streak to go on forever. This is usually when the streak's stop and this is a good situation for it to happen tonight with a West Coast on the East after an easy win last game. Look for the Hawks to rebound here.
Atlanta has now lost four straight games. They failed to cover in all four. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since December 23, 2003 at home when they have lost and failed to covered their last four games.

They were upset handily last game in Cleveland, 99-83. The Cavs drained 12-of-23 threes in that game. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since March 20, 2011 at home after a loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Atlanta didn't help themselves by going a pathetic 2-of-5 on free throws in the game. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 05, 2002 at home after a double digit loss in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

They made 37 baskets in the game but only 19 of those were assisted. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since February 12, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.

Utah is coming off a 112-102 win in Charlotte. They shot 53.7% from the field in that game. The Jazz are 0-7 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since February 13, 2012 on the road with at most one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

They went inside in that game with Paul Millsap scoring 19 points and Al Jefferson leading the way with 26. The Jazz are 0-10 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since December 22, 2010 on the road after a win on the road in which Paul Millsap was not the Jazz's high scorer. Also, the Jazz are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since December 30, 2010 on the road after a win on the road in which Al Jefferson was the Jazz's high scorer.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: ATLANTA 101, Utah 90

4-STAR Phoenix over BROOKLYN - This is the kind of game where Brooklyn is really being overvalued. Sure they look solid and a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. However the difference between the two conferences is so great they're really not that much different than this Phoenix team. The Suns won't continue to be this bad on the road and will make a game of things here.

Brooklyn is coming off a big 109-89 win in Philadelphia. They dominated the boards with a 50-32 edge The Nets are 0-7 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since January 15, 2000 at home with at least one day of rest after a win in which they controlled at least 60% of the available rebounds.

That helped them overcome 15 turnovers, only three of which were on Philly steals. The Nets are 0-6 ATS (-14.8 ppg) since November 12, 2008 at home after a game on the road in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers.

Deron Williams led the effort there with 22 points. The Nets are 0-5 ATS (-14.9 ppg) since December 27, 2011 at home after a win on the road in which Deron Williams was the Nets' high scorer.

Some of their normally reliable role players didn't do much. Kris Humphries scored just two points. The Nets are 0-8-1 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since February 12, 2011 at home after a win on the road in which Kris Humphries was not the Nets' high scorer.

Gerald Wallace had 11 points coming on just 3-of-6 shooting. The Nets are 0-5 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since April 08, 2012 at home with at least a day of rest after a win in which Gerald Wallace took fewer than 10 shots.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: BROOKLYN 101, Phoenix 99

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SB Professor Original NBA Picks 1/11

9:00 PM
817. Cleveland Cavaliers +12 (service play)

Rest of Games:
814. New York Knicks -4

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Burns' *10* Conf. GAME OF THE MONTH! *33-13 L46!*


Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors Jan 11 2013 10:35PM
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I like how this one sets up for the home side. The Warriors, who had last night off, were beaten here on Wednesday, a rare home loss. On the other hand, the Blazers are off an "upset" win over Miami last night on TNT. The Blazers did beat the T-Wolves when playing the second of b2b games recently and have admittedly been respectable in that situation overall this season. However, they still have just five wins their last 14 times in that situation, since last year. More importantly, a closer look reveals that they've been very fortunate to play poor or mediocre opponents when playing the second of b2b games. Prior to win vs. Minnesota, they were beaten 102-79 at Toronto, when playing the second of b2b games. Additionally, note that Portland is just 2-7-1 ATS when off an "upset" win. Not only is a TV win over the defending champions cause for a potential, letdown but the Blazers figure to find their hosts in a foul mood. The Warriors have been at their best when off an "upset" loss. They're 12-7 ATS their last 19 in that situation, going 3-0 SU/ATS their last three in that situation. The Warriors are still 10-6 ATS (11-5 SU) on this floor. I expect them to bounce back with a big win. *10 West. Conf GOM


Prediction: Golden State Warriors


Bet Type: SPREAD




Burns 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE! *11-5 2013, 33-13 L46


Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks Jan 11 2013 7:35PM
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks don't have a very good pointspread record at home this season and they're currently mired in a slump. However, they've still won 11 of 17 home games and they're not laying a very large number here. Facing a Utah team which is only 8-14 (8-13-1 ATS) on the road, I expect the Hawks to break through with a much needed win and cover. Off four straight losses, including a double-digit blowout at Cleveland on Wednesday, the Hawks should be in a nasty mood. In fairness, three of those losses were on the road and the lone home game came against Boston, after they'd just played an exhausting game the previous night, losing by a point at Detroit. Al Horford noted: "It's about energy, man, and we need to defend better.'' Josh Smith added: "We've got to get back to playing beautiful basketball.'' Tonight, the Hawks are playing with some rest, as they had last night off. They're 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) off a double-digit loss this season. Only one of those four games came at home (12/22 vs. Chicago) and the Hawks won that one by 17 points, when laying four. I expect the Hawks, who have taken five of six vs. the Jazz, to bounce back with another convincing win and cover here. *10 personal favorite


Prediction: Atlanta Hawks


Bet Type: SPREAD




Burns' *10 O/U BEST BET! **9-0 L9, 14-2 in 2013!**


Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets Jan 11 2013 9:05PM
I'm playing on Denver and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. While I respect both these offenses, I feel that this number will prove too high. I did recently successfully play on the Cavs to finish "over" the total in their game at Chicago. That game had an O/U line of only 186 though and I had reason to believe that the Bulls would be happy to push the pace. In this case, we're getting an extra 20 or so points to work with. Obviously, that's significant. Additionally, they're catching a Denver team which should be looking to deliver a strong defensive performance. (Karl had commented he was disappointed with the defensive energy early in the Wednesday's game.) Note the that the UNDER is 47-37-5 the past few seasons, after the Nuggets had allowed 105 or more points their previous game. The Cavs are off a dominant defensive effort of their own, limiting Atlanta to 83 points last time out. Even with their high-scoring game at Chicago, their road games are still averaging 195.3 points. That's a little higher than their average score at Cleveland but still well below this number. Meanwhile, Denver home games are averaging 201.3, the UNDER going 9-5. Again, considerably lower than this number. Speaking of that high number, note that the UNDER is 17-9-1 the last 27 games here when the O/U line ranged from 205 to 209.5. That includes Cleveland's visit here last season. That game had an O/U line of 208 and finished with 199. Don't be surprised if this one stays below the 200 mark once again. *10 best bet


Prediction: under






Burns EARLY O/U ANNIHILATOR *GOING FOR 10 STRAIGHT




Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors Jan 11 2013 7:05PM
I'm playing on Toronto and Charlotte to finish OVER the total. Admittedly, the Raptors have been pretty stingy defensively at home so far this season. However, a visit from the Bobcats typically means its time to pad the offensive stat sheet. I expect the Raptor fans to get their "free pizza" tonight (The Raptors have a promotion where the fans get a free pizza slice if Toronto scores 100 or more points) and for this one to finish above the posted number. The Bobcats have seen their road games average 199.4 points. They're allowing 105.4 ppg away from Charlotte. They've seen each of their last three games top the total, each of those producing a minimum of 209 combined points. The OVER is 4-1 when they've been listed as road underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range. Other teams with losing records (Toronto is 13-22) particularly tend to play high-scoring games when facing Charlotte. The OVER is 10-2 when the Bobcats have faced a sub-500 team. Off a big win last time out, note that the Raptors have seen the OVER go 15-10 the last 25 times that they were off a double-digit victory. This season, they've seen the OVER go 2-1 after allowing 85 or fewer points and 1-0 as home favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range. The Raptors were in all those situations most recently on 1/4, as they were off a big win and were favored by seven. That game (vs Sacramento) had an O/U line of 196 and finished with 201 combined points. I expect this one to also top the 200 mark. *9 annihilator


Prediction: over


Bet Type: TOTAL

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Bankroll sports

todays card

10* wright st +3.5 cbb
5* spurs/grizzles over 188 nba
4* loy maryland -3 cbb
3* niagra -2.5 cbb
2* houston rockets +2.5 nba
1* chicago bulls +4 nba

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Gameplan

5* Creighton -14

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Alatex

Houston +2.5 15*

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SweetJones

---

Celts -2.5 1X

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NESS legend

golden st

big al nba golden st

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Marc Lawrence

Lakers

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Lee Earnest
NBA
Suns.
Lakers

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DOC SPORTS CBB

4 Unit Play. #826 Take Over 113.5 in Wright State @ Loyola Chicago (9 pm ESPN U) I expect this to be a very competitive match-up for 40 minutes and expect some fouling to occur down the stretch to inflate this total over this low posted number. Both teams average 62 points per game and I am confident that one of these teams will reach 65 points putting us in good shape to collect with the over. The Raiders have been playing outstanding basketball of late, but this will be their first road game since December 22nd and thus their defense will not be as strong. Loyola has gone over the posted number in 5 straight home games. Wright State has gone over the posted total in 11 of their last 15 games played on Friday. Expect a close hard fought game with the over the strongest bet.

#806 Take Boston -2.5 over Houston (7:30 p.m. EST, Friday)

#812 Take New Orleans -2.5 over Minnesota (8 p.m. EST, Friday)

#815 Take Detroit +5.5 over Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST, Friday)

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Fargo ENFORCER Loyola-Chicago