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San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks (Sat): This is a back to back spot for both teams as each played Friday night. Atlanta was on the road at Brooklyn while San Antonio hosted Golden State. The Spurs have fared well against a more talented Hawks team in recent seasons, winning their lone meeting last year by 22 points and sweeping the series a season earlier with wins of seven and 16 points.
Spurs head coach Greg Popovich has long been one of the best at managing his personnel and should be better prepared for his team to play better in a second straight game for both teams. SAN ANTONIO.
25* SEC Game of Year Arkansas +10.5
20* Spurs -3.5
15* Harvard +11
15* Penn St -4
15* Virginia Tech -4
15* Iowa St. Pick
15* Utah +11
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Cleveland Cavaliers +9
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been much more competitive in their last five games, and I like their chances of staying within single-digits of the Utah Jazz tonight, possibly pulling off the upset.
Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. That includes a 99-83 home win over Atlanta as a 4-point dog, as well as a 93-88 road win at Portland as a 6-point dog. They also lost 91-98 at Denver as a 12.5-point dog, and 118-124 at Sacramento as a 6-point dog during this stretch.
The Jazz are in a huge letdown spot tonight. They have won their last two contests, which included a 104-97 home victory over the defending champion Miami Heat last time out. Off such a big win, it will be hard for Utah to get up emotionally to face the Cavaliers tonight. As a result, it will be difficult for the Jazz to cover this inflated number.
This play falls into a system that is 46-21 (68.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.
NCAA-B Jan 19 '13 (12:30p)
HARVARD vs MEMPHIS U HARVARD
+11-110
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Harvard +11
The Harvard Crimson are one of the most underrated teams in the country under former Michigan head coach Tommy Amaker. This team is much better than its 9-5 record would indicate as it has had some very close losses to some very good teams.
In fact, four of Harvard's five losses this season have come by less than 11 points. That includes road losses to UMass (64-67) as an 11-point dog, UConn (49-57) as a 9-point dog, and St. Mary's (69-70) as a 12-point dog. They have also won at Boston College (79-63) as a 4-point dog and at California (67-62) as an 11-point dog.
Memphis really only has one very good win this season, which was an 85-80 win at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. This team has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Louisville, Minnesota and VCU all by 9 points or more. The Tigers are clearly overvalued today as a double-digit favorite.
Harvard is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. It is winning in this spot by 14.8 points/game. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Crimson are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. These three trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Crimson. Roll with Harvard Saturday.
NCAA-B Jan 19 '13 (1:00p)
NEBRASKA vs PENN STATE PENN STATE
-4-106
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -4
The Penn State Nittany Lions are very hungry for their first Big Ten victory of the season. They played Michigan State tough at home on Wednesday, and I look for them to get that elusive first conference win today.
They'll host the lowly Nebraska Cornhuskers, who I feel are the worst team in the Big Ten. They are just 2-5 on the road this season, scoring 57.9 points/game away from home. They are also winless in Big Ten play, which includes an 0-3 road record. They have lost all three of their conference road games by 10 points or more.
The home team one both meetings last season in Nebraska's inaugural Big Ten campaign. In fact, both were blowouts as the Huskers won 70-58 on January 11th, while the Nittany Lions had their revenge with a 67-51 triumph on February 11th.
Penn State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take Penn State Saturday.
-= TOP PLAY =-
NCAA-B Jan 19 '13 (1:45p)
Arkansas vs MISSISSIPPI Arkansas
+10½-110
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +10.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks are showing their best value of the season as a double-digit underdog at Ole Miss Saturday. This is a team on the rise under second-year head coach Mike Anderson, and they are clearly underrated right now despite a solid 11-5 start.
I have no doubt that Ole Miss is one of the most overrated teams in the country after seeing them play several times this season. Ole Miss is off to a 14-2 start, but it is nowhere near as good as its record would indicate. It needed overtime to win at Vanderbilt last time out despite being a 9-point favorite.
This has been a very closely-contested rivalry in recent years. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings dating back to 2008 have been decided by 10 points or less. That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to today's 10.5-point spread.
Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Bet Arkansas Saturday.
NCAA-B Jan 19 '13 (2:00p)
WAKE FOREST vs VIRGINIA TECH VIRGINIA TECH
-4-110
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -4
The Virginia Tech Hokies (10-6) have played an absolutely brutal schedule in their last six games. They finally put an end to a 4-game losing streak by going on the road and knocking off Georgia Tech 70-65 in overtime as a 10-point underdog.
I like the Hokies to pick up back-to-back wins Saturday while facing the lowly Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-7). Virginia Tech is 7-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 10.5 points/game. It has impressive home wins over both Oklahoma State and Iowa.
Wake Forest is just 2-5 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.3 points/game. It has blowout road losses to both Duke (62-80) and Clemson (44-60) in conference play. I expect a third straight blowout road loss for the Demon Deacons in ACC action today.
The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series. Virginia Tech has won eight of the last 10 meetings. The Hokies are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Wake Forest dating back to 2006. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.
NCAA-B Jan 19 '13 (8:00p)
WISCONSIN vs Iowa Iowa
0-106
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa PK
The Iowa Hawkeyes (12-5) opened with a brutal Big Ten schedule, losing their first three to the likes of Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State. However, they proved what they were capable of by nearly upsetting both the Hoosiers (65-69) and Spartans (59-62).
Iowa exploded for its first Big Ten victory last Sunday in a 70-50 triumph at Northwestern. This is one of the more underrated teams in the country, and it is capable of beating anyone at home inside of rowdy Carver Hawkeye Arena.
The Wisconsin Badgers are in a huge letdown spot here after winning at Indiana 64-59 as a 10.5-point underdog on Tuesday. They have opened 4-0 in Big Ten play with two of their wins coming over lowly Penn State and Nebraska by single-digits. As a result, they are overvalued right now.
Iowa is 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are in all home games over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Bet Iowa Saturday.
NCAA-B Jan 19 '13 (11:00p)
UTAH U vs WASHINGTON U UTAH U
+11-110
15* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +11
The Utah Utes are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their 8-9 start. They are highly motivated for their first Pac-12 victory of the season Saturday. Clearly, when you look at most of their losses this season, its easy to see that this team is much better than its record would indicate.
Seven of Utah's eight losses have come by 10 points or less. That includes road losses to Arizona State (54-55) as an 8-point dog, to Arizona (57-60) as a 19-point dog, and home to UCLA (53-57) as a 7-point dog. There's no question that the Utes have what it takes to play with the Huskies tonight.
Washington is on a nice run right now, but with this run comes expectations from oddsmakers that it cannot live up to. It has won four straight while beating Washington State, Cal and Stanford on the road while also knocking off Colorado at home. The Huskies could easily be overlooking the Utes tonight and looking ahead to a five-game stretch that includes Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA.
This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games.
Utah is 12-3 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1997. Washington is 4-12 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Utes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Utah is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Roll with the Utes Saturday.
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