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2-Units Take #718 Portland -1 over Indiana (10pm, Wednesday, January 23)
Important game for Portland who has dropped six straight games and has
a tough schedule on deck with back to back games against the Clippers.
Portland however isn't playing bad basketball losing all six of those
losses by six points or less. The Pacers sit ten games over .500 on the
year but have struggled on the road with a 9-13 record, the Pacers play
a very good brand of defensive basketball but struggle on offense
averaging just 92.1 points a game will be tested against a Blazers team
that can shot but lacks depth on their bench. Portland who lost on
December 5th in Indiana catches the Pacers at the right time with this
marking their fifth road game in their last six. Look for a energetic
and if not desperate effort from Portland, laying one here looks real
cheap.
1-Unit Take Under 207 Oklahoma City at Golden State (10:30 pm, Wednesday, January 23)
The Warriors catch the Thunder after playing in Los Angeles and beating
the Clippers 109-97 putting the Thunder over the total in their last
four games. We get a nice adjustment here in the market from the first
time these two played with Oklahoma City winning 119-109 that went over
the closing total of 207. I think we might see more of a slower tempo
with with the Thunder playing last night and this marking their third
in four nights in three different cities. I think Golden State would
welcome a slower style game also with the Thunder having the scores
that they have. I will take the added value built into this number.
Stephen Nover | NBA Sides - Wednesday, Jan 23 2013 7:05PM
702 CHL4.5(-110) Hilton vs 701 ATL double-dime bet
Analysis: As bad as Charlotte is, the Hawks are in no position to lay this many points on the road.
Atlanta is 3-8 in its last 11 games and has lost its last six away games. The Hawks have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt and have averaged only 78.2 points during their past four road contests.
Charlotte has lost 15 in a row at home. The Bobcats nearly beat Houston in their last home game, losing 100-94 after blowing a seven-point fourth quarter lead.
The Bobcats won't lack for motivation not only wanting to end their embarrassing home losing streak, but they also have triple revenge incentive.
Charlotte's strength is its guard plays. The Bobcats' top four scorers are all guards. The Hawks are short-handed in the backcourt with Lou Williams out for the season and Devin Harris, DeShawn Stevenson and Anthony Morrow all missing Atlanta's last game this past Monday due Ï to injuries.
Stephen Nover | CBB Total - Wednesday, Jan 23 2013 11:00PM
815 Denver / 816 NMex St OVER114.5 Bookmaker.com triple-dime bet
Analysis:The oddsmaker has set a low total because the pace figures to be slow between these two WAC teams. Nonetheless, Denver has been a great over team on the road covering seven of its nine away matchups.
The Pioneers launch the second most 3-point attempts in the country. They rank 44th, too, making better than 37 percent from beyond the arc. New Mexico State ranks 146th in defending against 3-pointers. Denver has done a great job of protecting the ball lately, too, committing just seven turnovers during the past two games.
Denver is averaging 67 points in its last five games.
New Mexico State is the opposite. The Aggies attack the rim. They will do this against the Pioneers because they have a huge height advantage. The Pioneers don't have a starter above 6-foo-7. The Aggies are hitting nearly 46 percent of their field goal attempts. They rank in the top 60 in field goal percentage. I expect they will hit a higher percentage against the smaller Pioneers.
The Aggies aren't a great free throw shooting team, but they do get to the line a lot. The Aggies are averaging 74.2 points during their past seven games.
NBA - 703 Toronto Raptors @ 704 Miami Heat
Projected Line: 200 points
Miami is super rested for this game, as they haven't played over the last 5 days, while Toronto had 2 days off to prepare this game. The Heat won't have any problems in scoring near the basket today.
Toronto hasn't been protecting the rim well by allowing 66% FG this season, 71% FG on their last 10 games and 75% FG on their last 5 games! The fact that the Raptors have been playing shorthanded on the frontcourt doesn't help them at all and Miami will then have a big edge on this area every time Lebron James or Dwayne Wade penetrate into the basket tonight. Every time Toronto faces teams that like to attack on transition, they aren't capable of having good defensive numbers.
Charlotte scored 15 fast break points against them, Milwaukee scored 17 and even Philadelphia scored 16! No wonder that Toronto is just #17 on transition defense by allowing 1.15 PPP this season, while they are clearly on regression on this area right now, as they allowed 1.20 PPP on their last 10 games and 1.39 PPP on their last 5 games! Therefore, Miami's offense has a great spot for a big offensive performance tonight.
Regarding the Raptors's offense, Toronto is likely to play small ball tonight and Aaron Gray will barely play tonight, as he isn't needed on this game due to Miami's small ball lineups. Toronto's offense has been improving lately and on their last 12 games, they have averaged an offensive rating of 113.8, when they averaged just 105.5 on their first 29 games of the season! They have improved a lot on pick and rolls since Kyle Lowry came back and the combinations between their guards and Amir Johnson/Ed Davis is very interesting. Besides that, Toronto has been having good numbers on offensive rebounds and they will have an edge in here against the Heat. I believe Miami's mindset for tonight will be to win via shootout, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 196 @ -110 / 1.91
4-STAR SACRAMENTO -3 over Phoenix - Every team reacts differently to a change at the head coaching position. However, that assumes the team was underachieving to begin with. Phoenix is simply achieving. Their problem wasn't at the coaching level but at the lack of cohesive talent level. Don't look for them to suddenly turn things around here.
Phoenix has been off five days after a 98-94 home loss to Milwaukee. They had led by double digits in the second half of that game. The Suns are 0-12-1 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since December 03, 2008 with at least one day of rest and a total of under 219 off a home loss in which they led by 10+ points.
Having 11 shots blocked didn't help the Suns cause in such a close loss. The Suns are 0-9 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since December 19, 2000 with two or more days of rest after a game in which they had at least 10 shots blocked.
They were led by Shannon Brown off the bench in that game with 20 points as Jared Dudley had 13. The Suns are 0-6 ATS (-5.7 ppg) since February 17, 2012 on the road after a loss at home in which Jared Dudley was not the Suns' high scorer.
Sacramento meanwhile had a difficult task of playing an afternoon game Monday and started off slow before falling 114-105 in New Orleans. They went just 3-of-15 on threes in the loss. The Kings are 8-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since December 15, 2008 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.
These teams faced in November, with Phoenix winning at home. Jason Thompson played just 28 minutes in that loss. The Kings are 6-0 ATS (4.8 ppg) since November 07, 2008 as a favorite after losing the previous matchup in which Jason Thompson played fewer than 30 minutes.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: SACRAMENTO 112, Phoenix 100
4-STAR Oklahoma City and Golden State Over 205.5 - With Chris Paul missing last night's game, Oklahoma City didn't have to throw everything in the tank to get by the Clippers. That means they still have something for tonight's game where they will face a jazzed up Golden State team and crowd with something to prove again here.
Oklahoma City won last night, 109-97 in LA. They shot 52.6% from the field and 85.7% from the foul line. The Thunder are 10-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since January 06, 2011 after a game on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line.
Those numbers helped them overcome five Russell Westbrook turnovers. The Thunder are 12-0 OU (12.5 ppg) since January 30, 2012 after a win on the road in which Russell Westbrook had at least 5 turnovers.
Kevin Durant had a big night with 32 points including going 5-of-6 on threes. The Thunder are 6-0 OU (17.1 ppg) since April 22, 2012 after a win on the road in which Kevin Durant shot better than 50% from the arc.
Golden State also played LA last, Monday and won, 106-99. The Warriors are 6-0 OU (6.7 ppg) since November 29, 2012 with at least a day of rest after a win at home.
It was Steph Curry with a big game there going 6-of-8 on threes with 28 points. The Warriors are 10-0-1 OU (9.9 ppg) since January 17, 2011 after a win at home in which Stephen Curry shot better than 50% from the arc.
These teams met in November with OKC winning 119-109. David Lee had 19 points and 10 boards in the loss. The Warriors are 7-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since February 02, 2012 at home after losing the previous matchup in which David Lee had a double double. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Golden State 109, Oklahoma City 108
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