1-24-13

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Dayton (-16) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s Michigan. The surplus is 215 sirignanos.

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Study group: Thursday's Top 25 NCB betting notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on all of Thursday’s ranked college basketball games:

Purdue Boilermakers at (3) Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)

Purdue has won three consecutive games and six of eight after a shaky start. The Boilermakers routed West Virginia 79-52 in a non-conference contest in their last outing. Purdue is 2-2 on the road, including a conference victory over Nebraska. Michigan’s only home loss last season was to the Boilermakers. The Wolverines are 11-0 at Crisler Arena with seven of the victories coming by 28 or more points. Michigan is scoring nearly 20 points more a game – 79.3 to 59.5 – than it is allowing.

(16) VCU Rams at Richmond Spiders (+8.5)

Virginia Commonwealth has taken the conference by storm in its first year since its move from the Colonial, winning its first four conferences games. The Rams have also won 13 straight contests overall. Richmond, meanwhile, snapped a two-game slump by beating Charlotte at home on Saturday. The Spiders’ offense focuses largely on perimeter shooting as Richmond is second in the country in 3-pointers per game and 29th in the nation in 3-point percentage (38 percent). Virginia Commonwealth forces an average of about nine more turnovers than it gives up per game. The Spiders are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

Tennessee Volunteers at (24) Ole Miss Rebels (-8.5)

The Volunteers have some extra motivation heading into this one. Not only did the Rebels score a 92-74 victory in their Jan. 9 meeting, but Marshall Henderson vexed the Vols late in the game by openly boasting he was going to score 30 points. Henderson, the SEC's leading scorer and the reigning SEC Player of the Week, finished with 32 points. Since beating the Vols on the road, Ole Miss has entered the national rankings--and rides a seven-game win streak into this rematch. Meanwhile, Tennessee just snapped a four-game losing streak with Saturday's win over Mississippi State. The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.

UCLA Bruins at (6) Arizona Wildcats (-10)

UCLA hasn’t won in Tucson since the 2007-08 season, which also marks the last time the Bruins defeated a ranked team on the road. That victory came at Washington State on Feb. 7, 2008. Bruins freshman forward Kyle Anderson missed Tuesday’s practice with a stomach virus and freshman guard Jordan Adams also was experiencing similar symptoms. Coach Ben Howland is hopeful both players will be on the floor against Arizona. Anderson has six double-doubles and leads the team in rebounding (9.1) to go with a 9.9 scoring average. Adams averages 15.2 points, second on the squad behind freshman forward Shabazz Muhammad (17.9). UCLA is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.

BYU Cougars at (10) Gonzaga Bulldogs (-10)

The Bulldogs are the lone unbeaten team in conference play and the Cougars would be unblemished as well if not for a recent one-point loss to Saint Mary’s. BYU Sophomore guard Tyler Haws has scored 20 or more points in seven consecutive games after pouring in 25 during the victory over San Diego. Haws has 14 20-point outings on the season and has failed to score in double digits just once all season. Gonzaga is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.

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POINTWISE

COLLEGIATE BASKETBALL

THURSDAY, JANUARY 24 SCORE

(7:00) MISSISSIPPI 88 - Tennessee 72 (ESPN2)
(7:00) Virginia Commonwealth 66 - RICHMOND 51
(7:00) MICHIGAN 74 - Purdue 60

(8:00) JAMES MADISON 79 - Delaware 78
(8:00) ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 70 - Florida Atlantic 67
(8:00) VIRGINIA TECH 66 - Virginia 63
(8:00) FLORIDA STATE 75 - Clemson 65
(8:00) LA-LAFAYETTE 72 - Florida International 64
(8:00) Middle Tennessee State 70 - NORTH TEXAS 59
(8:00) SOUTH ALABAMA 66 - Western Kentucky 50

(8:30) Arkansas State 81 - TROY 77
(8:30) UTAH 64 - California 63

(9:00) ARIZONA 72 - Ucla 71 (ESPN2)
(9:00) UNLV 73 - Wyoming 70
(9:00) UTAH STATE 69 - Texas-Arlington 59
(9:00) LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 62 - Pepperdine 61

(10:00) COLORADO 66 - Stanford 63 (ESPNU)
(10:00) SEATTLE 75 - Texas-San Antonio 67
(10:00) IDAHO 82 - Texas State 68
(10:00) PORTLAND 76 - San Francisco 71
(10:00) CAL-POLY SLO 69 - Hawaii 67
(10:00) Louisiana Tech 77 - SAN JOSE STATE 73
(10:00) CAL-DAVIS 74 - Cal-Fullerton 68
(10:00) PACIFIC 78 - Cal-Riverside 65
(10:00) CAL-SANTA BARBARA 67 - Cal-Northridge 66

(10:30) ARIZONA STATE 65 - Southern California 62

(11:00) GONZAGA 78 - Byu 64 (ESPN2)
(11:00) SAINT MARYS 86 - San Diego 76

BEST BETS: VA COMMONWEALTH, CALIFORNIA, UCLA, WYOMING, CAL DAVIS,
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO

NBA BASKETBALL

THURSDAY, JANUARY 24 SCORE

(7:05) Toronto Raptors 97 - ORLANDO MAGIC 89

(8:00) BOSTON CELTICS 100 - New York 99 (TNT)

(10:35) Los Angeles Clippers 121 - PHOENIX 111 (TNT)

BEST BETS: NEW YORK (4)

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PGA Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview
by Matt Fargo

The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. No less than 156 golfers will be eyeing the $6,000,000 purse this week in what is the biggest field of the young PGA Tour season.

Torrey Pines’ North and South courses are the hosts for the 46th consecutive year. Scoring low on the North Course is imperative because the South will not give in. The South Course is the longest on Tour at 7,698 yards but that does not mean big hitters will dominate.

Tiger Woods (+650) is the heavy favorite this week. After finishing in a tie for 44th here in 2011, he skipped last year’s event to play in the Abu Dhabi Championship. He’s back this year after missing the cut in the United Arab Emirates last week. He is a six-time winner of this event but this will be just his second start in the past five years here. We will use him as a hedge.

Bubba Watson (+1,500) has been off since the opening Hyundai Tournament of Champions where he finished T4 in the rain-shortened event. He finished T13 at Torrey Pines a year ago and has had success in the odd-numbered years of the tournament. He finished T4 in 2007, T7 in 2009 and was the winner in 2011. Watson has finished 12th or better in five of his last six events.

Nick Watney (+2,000) has not played since Kapalua where he finished T14 after the 54-hole weather-shortened event. That was his first go around with his new Nike equipment and he was clearly more comfortable than Rory McIlroy was overseas. He has also enjoyed success in the odd years at Torrey Pines. Watney won here is 2009 and finished T6 in 2011 after a Sunday 63. He has finished in the top ten in four of his 10 starts here.

Hunter Mahan (+3,000) won twice before April last season but carded only two top-10 spots the rest of the way. He has gained a new perspective after a near disaster in Israel in November and following a T26 at the Hyundai, he is back to a place that has treated him well. Mahan has finished tied for sixth in each of the last two years at the Farmers.

Bill Haas (+4,000) fell apart on us last week but we’ll go back with him here. He has an exceptional history at Torrey Pines, finishing T11 or better in three of his last four appearances. He has shot even par or better in 19 of his last 24 rounds here.

For a long shot, we'll take a look at Jimmy Walker (+5,000). He has opened 2013 with a couple top-25 finishes after closing last year with a T10 and a T4, so he should keep the momentum going. Walker has never won on Tour but his time will come and this could be the place. After missing the cut here in 2009 and 2010, he broke through with a T29 finish in 2011. Last year a Friday 65 helped him earn a T8 finish.

Recommended Tournament Win Six Pack at the Farmers Insurance Open
All for 1 Unit

Tiger Woods (+650)
Bubba Watson (+1,500)
Nick Watney (+2,000)
Hunter Mahan (+3,000)
Bill Haas (+4,000)
Jimmy Walker (+5,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 3 events: -15 Units

Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge - 5 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- None.

Cold Teams
-- Raptors lost three of last four games, with all three losses coming in overtime (4-2-1 last seven AU). Orlando lost eight of its last ten games (2-6 HF after starting 2-0).
-- Celtics lost last four games, scoring 88.8 ppg (4-4 SU last 8 at home). New York lost six of last ten games (3-4 last seven true road games).
-- Suns lost seven of last nine games (4-6 HU). Clippers lost last two games, after winning 24 of previous 27 (4-7 AF).


Totals
-- Last six Toronto games went over the total; over is 8-1-1 in last ten Magic games.
-- Seven of last ten Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Phoenix games.

Back-to-backs
-- Suns are 3-6 vs spread if they played night before, 0-3 at home.

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CBB

-- Ole Miss made 38-44 from foul line, won 92-74 at Tennessee 15 days ago; Rebels are 4-0 in SEC, with all four wins by 10+ points- they're 2-0 as SEC home favorites, winning by 15-12 in Oxford. Vols are 2-0 as road dogs in SEC play, losing by 3 at Alabama, 10 at Kentucky; they've lost four of last five visits here, by 2-14-16-17 points. SEC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-4 vs spread.
-- VCU won seven of last eight games vs Richmond, but lost by 12 last time they visited here; Rams had won previous three visits to Richmond by 12-1-14 points. VCU is 4-0 in first year in A-16, winning road games by 7 in Olean, 27 at Duquesne- they're 2-2 as A-16 favorites. Spiders are 2-0 at home in league, but lost road games by 12-15 points. A-16 home teams are 6-10 vs spread when number is 6+ points; home dogs are 4-5. This is a local rivalry. Pressing team vs a Princeton team. Good stuff.
-- Home team won 14 of last 19 Clemson-Florida State games, but State won first meeting 71-66 at Littlejohn, making 10-23 from arc. Tigers lost four of last five visits here, losing by 9-7-6-8 points; they're 0-2 on ACC road, losing by 4 at NC State, 28 at Duke. Seminoles lost last two games, scoring only 36 points in last game, at Virginia. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 2-5 vs spread.
-- Western Kentucky won five of last seven games with South Alabama, but are 2-3 in last five visits here, with losses by 2-4-5 points; they've lost four of last five games overall, losing last two road games by 8-14 points. USA split its last six league games after starting Sun Belt play 3-0; they're 4-2 as a Sun Belt favorite, 2-1 at home. Sun Belt home faves of 6 or less points are 9-3 against the spread.

-- Home sides won seven of last eight UCLA-Arizona games; Bruins lost last four visits to Tucson by 12-5-11-2 points. UCLA won its two road tilts in league play by 4-3 points; they covered only game as Pac-12 dog, winning 78-75 (+2.5) at Colorado. Wildcats are 1-4 as Pac-12 favorites, 0-2 at home, winning by 9ot-3 points- this is their first home game in 19 days. Pac-12 home favorites are 7-22 vs spread this year.
-- UNLV won 17 of last 20 games vs Wyoming, winning last nine regular season visits here, by 11-13-18-17-7-10-12-12-15 points, but Rebels are just 2-2 in league this year, beating Air Force in OT in only home game. Underdogs are 4-0 SU/vs spread in Wyoming's league games; Cowboys are 2-0 as underdogs- their MWC losses are by hoop to Boise, by 13 at Fresno. MWC single digit home favorites are 4-3 vs spread.
-- Stanford beat Colorado twice LY, by 20-24 points, in Buffs' first year in Pac-12; Cardinal is 0-2 on Pac-12 road, losing by hoop at USC, by 8 at UCLA- home side covered four of their five league games. Buffs split first two Pac-12 home games, beating USC by 6, losing by 3 to UCLA. Pac-12 home favorites are 7-22 vs spread this year, 1-11 if laying 5 or less points. Colorado is 2-4 in conference, Stanford 2-3.
-- Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in USC's league games; Cantu's first two games as interim HC were decided by total of three points. Home side won 10 of last 12 USC-Arizona State ganes; Trojans lost five of last six visits to Tempe, losing by 10-14-12-5-4 points. ASU lost last two tilts after 3-0 start in league; they're 2-1 at home, winning by 1-9- dogs hae covered thre eof their four league games. Pac-12 home favorites are 7-22 vs spread this year, 1-11 if laying 5 or less points.
-- Gonzaga had tough non-league loss at Butler last game; they're 4-0 in WCC, winning only home game by 5 over St Mary's. BYU is 3-2 in true road games, losing by 21 at Iowa State, 15 at Baylor. Home side won both BYU-Gonzaga games LY, with Cougars losing in Spokane by 11, in their first trip around WCC. Zags also beat BYU by 19 in conference tourney. WCC single digit home favorites are 3-5 vs spread.

-- Road team covered all five of St Mary's WCC games; Gaels are 0-2 as home favorites, beating LMU by 13, USF by 6- dogs are 4-1 vs spread in their league games. San Diego is 4-1 in WCC, losing by 17 at BYU; they're 2-1 as WCC road dogs. St Mary's won seven of last eight games vs USD, winning last five here, by 7-4-15-11-11 points. WCC home teams are 5-11 vs spread; double digit home favorites are 2-2.
-- Home side won seven of last eight Tennessee State-EKU games, with State losing last four visits here, by 18-8-14-5 points. Both sides have one OVC loss, to Belmont; State covered its last six games- they're 2-0 as OVC road dog. EKU is 1-2 as home favorite, winning all three games, by 11-6-7 points. OVC home faves of 6 or less points are 4-6 vs spread. State won at Tennessee Tech/Jacksonville State, lost at Belmont by 12.
-- Morehead State is 0-5 vs top 100 teams, losing by 22-11-12-20-36 points, but Eagles are 4-2 in OVC, losing by 3 at Austin Peay, by 7 at EKU. First road game in 19 days for Belmont squad that won its first two OVC road games, by 11 at Jacksonville State, 31 at Tennessee Tech; all six of their OVC wins are by 7+ points. OVC home underdogs are 3-7 vs spread. In Morehead's 69-62 loss at EKU, they were down 20 with a little less than 4:00 left.
-- Weber State won 10 of last 12 games vs Montana State, winning four of last five visits here, with wins by 2-20-4-9 points; battle of unbeaten Big Sky teams looms Saturday in Missoula, Weber better not look past this game- they're 2-2 as road favorites, winning road games by 21-4-16-7 points. Montana State won its two Big Sky homegames by total of 5 points- they were favored both games. Big Sky home underdogs are 4-5 against the spread.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/24/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 2221-725 (.754)
ATS: 951-988 (.490)
ATS Vary Units: 3056-3253 (.484)
Over/Under: 252-254 (.498)
Over/Under Vary Units: 289-325 (.471)

America East Conference
Hartford 58, NEW HAMPSHIRE 56

Atlantic 10 Conference
Vcu 75, RICHMOND 65

Atlantic Coast Conference
FLORIDA STATE 64, Clemson 58
Virginia 62, VIRGINIA TECH 58

Atlantic Sun Conference
EAST TENNESSEE STATE 69, Jacksonville 66
LIPSCOMB 79, Kennesaw State 67
Mercer 63, NORTHERN KENTUCKY 53
USC UPSTATE 73, North Florida 67

Big Sky Conference
MONTANA 72, Idaho State 52
NORTHERN ARIZONA 73, Northern Colorado 72
SACRAMENTO STATE 68, North Dakota 65
SOUTHERN UTAH 72, Portland State 70
Weber State 79, MONTANA STATE 70

Big Ten Conference
MICHIGAN 74, Purdue 58

Big West Conference
CAL POLY 74, Hawai'i 71
Cal State Fullerton 82, UC DAVIS 81
PACIFIC 70, UC Riverside 55
UC SANTA BARBARA 83, Cal State Northridge 71

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
FAIRFIELD 69, Marist 57

Mountain West Conference
UNLV 65, Wyoming 58

Northeast Conference
Bryant 77, SACRED HEART 73
MONMOUTH 75, Fairleigh Dickinson 67
QUINNIPIAC 80, Central Connecticut State 72
Robert Morris 75, SAINT FRANCIS (PA.) 63
ST. FRANCIS (N.Y.) 81, Long Island 76
Wagner 67, MOUNT ST. MARY'S 64

Ohio Valley Conference
Belmont 79, MOREHEAD STATE 66
EASTERN ILLINOIS 71, UT Martin 60
EASTERN KENTUCKY 68, Tennessee State 65
JACKSONVILLE STATE 76, Austin Peay 62
Murray State 73, TENNESSEE TECH 62
SIUE 70, Southeast Missouri 69

Pacific-10 Conference
ARIZONA 76, Ucla 65
ARIZONA STATE 64, Usc 58
California 62, UTAH 61
COLORADO 69, Stanford 64

Southeastern Conference
OLE MISS 76, Tennessee 63

Southern Conference
APPALACHIAN STATE 70, Georgia Southern 64
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 74, The Citadel 54
Davidson 75, WESTERN CAROLINA 68
ELON 79, Chattanooga 67
UNC GREENSBORO 72, Samford 71
WOFFORD 63, Furman 55

Southland Conference
CENTRAL ARKANSAS 77, McNeese State 75
NICHOLLS STATE 71, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 63
ORAL ROBERTS 78, Lamar 56
Sam Houston State 61, SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 58

Summit League
OAKLAND 84, Iupui 72
SOUTH DAKOTA 90, Omaha 76
Western Illinois 62, FORT WAYNE 53

Sun Belt Conference
Arkansas State 68, TROY 61
Middle Tennessee 68, NORTH TEXAS 60
SOUTH ALABAMA 69, Western Kentucky 65
UALR 69, Florida Atlantic 61
UL LAFAYETTE 73, Fairleigh Dickinson 71

West Coast Conference
GONZAGA 80, Byu 71
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 71, Pepperdine 62
SAINT MARY'S 78, San Diego 60
San Francisco 67, PORTLAND 65

Western Athletic Conference
IDAHO 83, Texas State 66
Louisiana Tech 73, SAN JOSE STATE 66
SEATTLE 79, UT San Antonio 68
UTAH STATE 69, UT Arlington 61

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/24/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 402-201 (.667)
ATS: 304-312 (.494)
ATS Vary Units: 878-844 (.510)
Over/Under: 318-299 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 487-443 (.524)

ORLANDO 98, Toronto 96
BOSTON 95, New York 94
L.A. Clippers 101, PHOENIX 96

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

01/24/13 Predictions

Season: 12-10 (.545)

N.Y. Islanders vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. Rangers vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WASHINGTON 3, Montreal 2
Buffalo vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Ottawa vs. FLORIDA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ST. LOUIS 3, Nashville 2
Chicago vs. DALLAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
COLORADO 3, Columbus 2
Los Angeles 3, EDMONTON 2
SAN JOSE 3, Phoenix 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club Selections 24/01/2013
CBB:
#547 Hawaii +5.5
#575 Western Illinois -3

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 969- 723 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner THURS: UCLA + 9

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Buffalo +110 (NHL)

Ottawa -112 (NHL)

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POWER PLAY WINS

Boston Celtics (+1) Over New York Knicks

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB HAWAII at CAL POLY-SLO

Play On - A road team (HAWAII) average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more.
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 1.9 units )

CBB N COLORADO at N ARIZONA

Play On - A road team vs. the money line (N COLORADO) average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
241-151 since 1997. ( 61.5% 79.0 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% 1.0 units )

CBB THE CITADEL at COLL OF CHARLESTON

Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (COLL OF CHARLESTON) average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 15+ games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )