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NCAA Basketball Play of the Day January 29, 2013 3:01 AM by GT Staff
NC State at Virginia -2 at 4 p.m. PT ESPN2
Virginia is in big revenge mood in this game and catch State in a great spot coming off huge effort this past Saturday against their hated rival North Carolina.
3-Unit Play. Take #521 Illinois State (-4.5) over Bradley (8 p.m.)
I'm going to take a shot here that something has been jarred loose with Illinois State. They have won three straight games and they could be a bit undervalued right now. They had a little issue in the locker room a few weeks ago, but now they all seem to be rowing in the right direction. They were able to gut out wins over Indiana State and Evansville, two very feisty teams in the Missouri Valley, and this team could have some momentum. Bradley is just kind of a mess. They have a couple decent veteran guards. But without Will Egolf they have no one to protect the rim and teams are pretty much scoring at will in the paint. Bradley is coming off a 34-point loss at Wichita State and over the last month their only wins have come in two close W's over Southern Illinois (who is awful) and then two other bad teams (Missouri State and Drake) in home games. They just aren't that good. Illinois State has the same level of talent as a Creighton or a Wichita State. And there is no way that they would get a number like this in this situation.
2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 146.5 Kentucky at Mississippi (9 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #526 Mississippi (-2.5) over Kentucky (9 p.m.)
Kentucky can't score. Their offense is just not very good, and they are facing kind of an underrated defense for the Rebels. The 'under' is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings and the 'under' is 18-6-2 in Kentucky's last 26 road games. The Wildcats have a lot of top-level athletes and Coach Cal can get them to defend for days. If Willie McCauley-Stein was playing this total would be rated at least 5.0 Units. But I still think the Wildcats will be able to dig deep in this one against the Rebels. LSU somehow scored 70 points over the weekend and Texas A&M played out of their minds to score 83. Louisville also managed 80 points against the Wildcats. But that's it in UK's last 14 games. That is all that has scored over 70, and the Wildcats flake out offensively on the road. Ole Miss is a team that can put some points up against weaker sisters. They have played a pathetic schedule this year and that has inflated their record. But they will be sky-high for this game and should play well. That said, I still don't know that I see them topping 70-75 points. They have been held below that in three of their last five games, and outside of them erupting against Vanderbilt their offense has been a little stagnant. Also, the Rebels will dig down defensively and should get the job done. I can see this one played in the high 60's/low 70's. And while it might be close, I think this one is somewhere around 70-65 for the home team.
1-Unit Play. Take #520 Evansville (-1.5) over Northern Iowa (8 p.m.)
4-STAR PORTLAND over Dallas - Dallas comes into this game relying entirely on high offensive output for success. Unfortunately, Portland is one of the toughest places to travel and put up a big score. Dallas hasn't faced a decent team on the road in three weeks and is going to start off slow here.
Portland is coming off a 96-83 loss at the Clippers Sunday night. Amazingly of the 29 baskets they had in that game, 28 were assisted. Teams following a game where at least 84.1% of the team's baskets were assisted are168-132-3 ATS. Also, the Trailblazers are 7-0 ATS (13.9 ppg) since December 09, 2000 as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.
What killed them though was turnovers as they had 19 while attempting just 66 shots. The Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) since December 12, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four.
The majority of those were self inflicted as LA had just eight steals in the game. The Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since February 21, 2000 as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers.
Portland did a great deal of their damage at the foul line scoring 22 points there. The Trailblazers are 10-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since March 12, 2010 as a favorite after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line and allowed less than 110 points.
These teams haven't met since the first games of the season. A hot Dallas team won handily at the time, holding Portland to 38% shooting. The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since February 01, 2011 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they shot less than 40% from the field. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PORTLAND 101, Dallas 93
3-Unit Play. #520 Take Evansville -1.5 over Northern Iowa (Tuesday @ 8:05 pm est)
Although Northern Iowa has revenge over Evansville, I still like Evansville to do well here. Marty Simmons had a 16 win team last year and looks like they are on their way of eclipsing that this year as they have produced 12 wins. Evansville has been great in taking care of the basketball as they are a top 30 team when it comes to turnover percentage and a top 20 team in free throw shooting. This is a team that has shown to produce some big wins at home including beating a top 25 caliber Wichita State team at home and lost to Butler and Notre Dame by 8 and 9 respectively on the road. This also includes beating Northern Iowa on the road earlier this year. Northern Iowa is a solid team and Ben Jacobson continues to coach this team well. But, this is a team that can find it difficult to score points at times including 41 points on the road at Wichita State and 58 points in their last game against Indiana State. This is a very good free throw shooting as well but I believe they rely too much on their half court offensive set and as they are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country and a top 150 turnover team, I would not be surprised to see Evansville actually end up sweeping Northern Iowa this year and pick up their 13th win on the year.
Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball
We are now 8-3 over the last 11 selections. It's been a good run for us in the NBA as we continue to rise and are on pace for back to back winning months. Let's make it a 9-3 run with a win today.
3-Unit Play. #506. Take Milwaukee +1 over the Detroit Pistons (Tuesday @ 7:30pm est). Revenge is always a decent motivation. And, that motivation is on the minds of Milwaukee after they have lost their last 2 contests against the Pistons including a 16 point loss to the Pistons in which they were favored by 5.5 points going into that game. Milwaukee has won 7 of its last 10 games including a big win against Golden State. Although the Pistons have been playing well themselves winning 10 of their last 16, I would think that Milwaukee would like to avoid losing 3 straight in one year to the Pistons. The motivation angle is there and there is a reason why the Pistons are just a 1 point chalk here. The Bucks have shown they can beat some fairly stiff competition of late including the Warriors, Portland and Chicago on the road. And as good as Detroit has been in improvement over the past few weeks, they have still lost to the Bobcats, Jazz and New York at home and the Bucks are a competent team with one of the best backcourts in the league with Jennings and Ellis. I like Milwaukee to avoid losing 3 straight here to Detroit.
Indian Cowboy's Picks For NHL Hockey
3-Unit Play. #17 Take Over 5.5 Goals Columbus vs. Minnesota (Tuesday @ 8:00pm est)
The Columbus Blue Jackets are in heavy rebuild mode and they captured a win on their home ice last night as they now head north to the Xcel Energy Center, Saint Paul, Minnesota for a date with the Wild. No team made a bigger splash during the summer than the Wild, who stunned the hockey world July 4 by signing forward Zach Parise and defenseman Ryan Suter to identical 13-year contracts. Parise should give the Wild one of the most explosive top lines in the League as he's expected to play with Mikko Koivu and Dany Heatley. The new star power now added to the Wild franchise is generating the sort of NHL buzz to the Twin Cities that has been lacking since the old North Stars were still in town. Minnesota generated a number of scoring chances at St. Louis, especially early, but was unable to capitalize. The team conducted a number of drills with players crashing the net and trying to bang home rebounds. Wild HC Mike Yeo is a tremendous competitor and his team is a reflection of him, we expect the Wild to respond from their loss to the Blues at the expense of a tired Columbus team. Minnesota runs Wild over the Blue Jackets.
2-Unit Pick Take #6 Buffalo (-1.55) Over Toronto (7 pm, Tuesday, January 29th)
2-Unit Pick Take #13 Washington (+1.25) over Ottawa (7:35pm, Tuesday, January 29th)
2-Unit Pick Take Over (5.5) Columbus at Minnesota (8 pm, Tuesday, January 29th)
DOC SPORTS
5-Unit NBA Game of the Week #504 Take Detroit -1 over Milwaukee (7:30 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
The Bucks are hot and have won seven of 10, but their schedule has been pretty easy for the most part. Their losses in that stretch include a loss to Cleveland and also a 16-point home drubbing at home against this same Pistons team. Forget about revenge here. That loss was over two weeks ago and the Bucks are concentrating more on getting into the playoffs instead of obsessing over a game two weeks ago. The Pistons started off real slow this season, but they have been playing much better as of late. They have covered four of their last five. They are also 10-6 straight up in their last 16 games. Just think this team is being underestimated by the oddsmakers right now. This team is much better than their record indicates, and we think talent-wise that this team matches up very well with the Bucks even though Milwaukee has a much better record. So we think there is some nice value on this line as home-court advantage has not been factored into this number in our opinion. Detroit has a shut-down defense at home, and this team allows just over 93 points per game on its home court. Those numbers are as competitive as any team in the NBA. We think they will be able to slow down Ellis and Jennings, and those are really the only main threats for Milwaukee. The Pistons play great team basketball and they can get contributions from a number of guys. And the whole Rodney Stuckey situation? We feel like we talked back to his coach and was benched last game (the team is being real secretive about his status), but we expect him to be back for this game. Even if he doesn't play, he is more of a role player on this team these days. We just think that the Pistons will win this one and that the line here is off by a few points.
Vegas Sports Informer
2 Unit Play. Take 2517 Columbus +160 over Minnesota (8:05 p.m., Tuesday January 29)
The Columbus Blue Jackets will be looking back to back wins and will be trying to send the Wild to their fourth straight loss when the two teams meet tonight in Minnesota. Columbus comes into the contest off a hard fought 2-1 over Dallas last night while the Wild have been outscored 13-8 in their three losses after opening the season with two wins. Despite being a pretty big underdog in the game tonight, we actually like the spot Columbus is in here tonight. The won their last two games with the Wild last season with Steve Mason in goal, something they should carry over to tonight's game. The Wild, who look like the better team on paper have actually struggled in the situation they are in here tonight against Columbus. They are just 1-10 in their last 11 games played on a Tuesday and have lost 7 straight against teams with a win % of .400 or less. Pair that with the fact that the Wild are just 3-13 in their last 16 games against teams from the Central Division and we'll take the nice plus price on Columbus to get the win on the road and give us four straight winning nights on the frozen pond.
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