2-6-13

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Study group: Wednesday's Top 25 NCB betting notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on all of Wednesday’s ranked college basketball games:

(18) Minnesota at (8) Michigan State (-2.5)

Minnesota started Michigan State’s Big Ten schedule with a loss on New Year’s Eve, but the Spartans have not let that defeat derail their hopes of winning the nation’s toughest conference. Minnesota shot 56.6 percent in beating Michigan State 76-63 in Minneapolis on Dec. 31, posting its first regular-season triumph over the Spartans since 2006. Michigan State has won 13 of the past 16 matchups and has won seven of eight overall since that defeat, but Minnesota is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.

Baylor at (24) Oklahoma State (5.5)

The Bears beat the Cowboys 64-54 when the teams last met Jan. 21 in Waco and they have won eight of the last 12 meetings. Oklahoma State has won three consecutive games since losing to Baylor and is coming off an 85-80 victory at then-No. 1 (now No. 5) Kansas on Saturday. Baylor has a two-game losing streak and is coming off a 79-71 setback at Iowa State on Saturday. The Bears are second in the Big 12 in scoring offense (75.8) and rebounding (39.2), and seventh in scoring defense (63.8). The Cowboys, who lead the Big 12 in free-throw percentage (.751), are fourth in both scoring offense (71.8) and scoring defense (60.2). The Bears are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Oklahoma State.

(17) Cincinnati at Providence (+3.5)

Two of the top scorers in the Big East will go head-to-head, when Sean Kilpatrick and Cincinnati visit Bryce Cotton and Providence. Kilpatrick is not quite at Cotton’s level, but he has had more support from his teammates as the Bearcats have taken two straight and five of their last six. The Friars snapped a three-game slide with a win at Villanova on Saturday and have fallen just short in several other Big East contests. The Friars are 1-4 at home against conference teams and will face three ranked opponents in the next four games as they try to keep from falling below .500. The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.

St. Bonaventure at (14) Butler (-11.5)

Butler has been a factor in its inaugural season in the Atlantic 10 Conference and will move into a first-place tie with a victory over visiting St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have won three of their last four games, including impressive victories at Temple and Saint Joseph's. St. Bonaventure figures to have a tougher time at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse, though, where the Bulldogs are 11-0 this season. The Bonnies will also have to deal with senior guard Rotnei Clarke, who has led Butler in scoring in three consecutive games since missing three contests because of a neck injury. St. Bonaventure is 9-57 all-time against ranked teams and 0-28 on the road. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.

(13) Creighton at Indiana State (+5.5)

Creighton has won three straight games by at least 14 points against opponents with losing conference records since dropping two in a row on the road. The Sycamores, one of the four Missouri Valley teams with a winning conference record, own three victories against opponents ranked in this week’s coaches’ poll despite last month’s loss at Creighton. Indiana State is coming off a 74-71 overtime loss at Drake – the same team that handed Creighton its last loss – but is 8-1 at home. While the Bluejays have won four straight overall in this series, they are 1-2 over their last three in Terre Haute, Ind. – games that have been decided by a total of nine points. The Sycamores are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

(12) Louisville at Rutgers (+10.5)

Three weeks ago, Louisville dominated its first four conference games and was the nation's top-ranked team. A three-game losing streak sent them tumbling out of the top 10 but on Sunday, the Cardinals seemed to regain their dominance in a 71-50 victory over Marquette and they will be aiming for their third straight win when they visit Rutgers. After winning three of its first five conference games, Rutgers has dropped four straight and has been outscored by a 122-80 margin after halftime in its last three games, including 40-24 in last Wednesday's 62-54 loss at Cincinnati. The Cardinals 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

(5) Kansas at TCU (+19.5)

Kansas finds itself in rebound mode for the first time since mid-November after having its NCAA-best 18-game winning streak snapped at home by Oklahoma State, 85-80, on Saturday. The Jayhawks are 4-0 on the road in Big 12 play but only one - a 60-46 win at Texas Tech - has been by double digits. The other three -- at Texas (64-59), at Kansas State (59-55) and at West Virginia (61-56) -- have been by five points or less. TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.

Mississippi State at (23) Mississippi (-20)

Mississippi looks to get back on track and snap a two-game losing streak when it hosts in-state rival Mississippi State. The Rebels had won nine straight before dropping consecutive games to Kentucky and Florida over the last week, dropping Ole Miss into a second-place tie in the SEC. The Bulldogs have dropped six straight after starting 2-0 in league play, showing the team's youth and inexperience. Mississippi is scoring 73 points a game in SEC games, which is bad news for Mississippi State, which is allowing 74.8 points a game during its current losing skid. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Stanford at (7) Arizona (-10)

Arizona looks to extend its three-game winning streak against surging Stanford. Arizona is coming off a sweep of the Washington schools last week, and its defense has limited the opposition to 25.4 percent from 3-point range over the last four games. Arizona has won 12 of the last 16 games against Stanford, and the Wildcats are 28-8 in Tucson. The Cardinal have won five of their last seven after starting league play 0-2. Stanford still trails the Pac-12 in field goal shooting at 41.1 percent, but the Cardinal have shot 57.4 percent from beyond the arc in their last three games. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.

Air Force at (16) New Mexico (-11.5)

New Mexico will try to hold onto sole possession of first-place in the Mountain West Conference when it hosts Air Force. The Falcons have won five straight following their 70-67 upset Saturday against then-No. 20 San Diego State. Don’t anticipate the Lobos will take Air Force lightly. New Mexico lost by 21 points to San Diego State on Jan. 26 - the same team the Falcons toppled last weekend. Air Force is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.

Boise State at (25) San Diego State (-9)

San Diego State was supposed to be head of the class in the Mountain West Conference. Instead, the Aztecs need a victory over Boise State to avoid being at .500 at the midway point of the conference slate. The Broncos have upset two ranked teams on the road this season, beating Creighton in November and winning at Wyoming last month. Boise State has already matched last season’s conference victory total, but the Broncos have lost their last three Mountain West road games by an average of 15.7 points. San Diego State has won 58 of its last 63 home games and has a 9-1 mark this season. The Aztecs allow only 59.3 points per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AT&T Pebble Beach golf preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

The PGA Tour goes back to California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Pebble Beach Golf Links is one of three host courses for the event along with Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course which replaces Poppy Hills for a fourth straight year as one of the three courses that had been part of this rotation. A traditional playing cut of the top 60 and ties will be made after 54 holes on Saturday, giving players one extra day to make a move.

Pebble Beach is one of the players’ favorite stops on Tour and for good reason. Hitting greens is essential to provide birdie opportunities and scoring on the par-5s is also crucial. Experience has played a big role in this event and a good track record will take precedence over those who have not played much, or played well here in the past. Last year was just the second time in seven years at Pebble Beach that the average score was under par.

The defending champion is Phil Mickelson (+550) who came from six shots back entering the final day and shot 64 to win by two shots over Charlie Wi. Mickelson is coming off a wire-to-wire win in Scottsdale last week. He played his best golf of the young season by far and narrowly missed a Thursday 59. He has won here four times.

The short price on Dustin Johnson (+800) is certainly justified. He has won here twice and finished inside the top seven two other times, and this is only his sixth start here. Taking last week off should have him recharged.

This is the third straight week we will use Hunter Mahan (+1,800). After a T15 at the Farmers, he finished T16 at TPC Scottsdale and he certainly looks ready to break through. He has performed very well here over the last couple years as his T15 last year came after a solo second in 2011, where he finished two back of D.A. Points. It is interesting to note his two best rounds that year came at Pebble.

We used Jimmy Walker (+3,000) two weeks ago at Torrey Pines and if not for a Tiger Woods runaway, he was right in the thick of it. He finished T4 and after making the cut at the Phoenix Open last week, he has made the weekend in all four starts as well as 13 straight going back to last season. He finished T9 at Pebble Beach in 2011 thanks to a Sunday 75 and followed it up last year with another T9 finish.

Tim Clark (+3,500) opened the season with a solo second at the Sony Open in Hawaii but followed that up with a missed cut at the Humana Challenge. He came back last week and was average with a T49 but he returns to the AT&T for the first time since 2010 when he finished T10 and has never been outside the top 25 when making the weekend. Injuries forced him to miss the last two years but he is healthy this time around.

For a long shot, we will take a look at Matt Every (+7,500). After missing the cut in his first two starts this year, he made the weekend at the Farmers and then followed that up with a T9 last week, posting a 65 and 66 along the way. He missed the cut here last year but that came after a missed cut in his previous start, so the momentum is on his side here. Prior to that, he finished T31 in 2011 and T27 in 2010.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am - All for 1 Unit

Dustin Johnson (+800)
Hunter Mahan (+1,800)
Jimmy Walker (+3,000)
Tim Clark (+3,500)
Matt Every (+7,500)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Northern Iowa (-12 1/2) Tuesday.

Wednesday it’s Temple. The deficit is 80 sirignanos.

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Profitbets

international friedly:

Spain ml 25units

japan over 2.5 10u

brazil/england over 2.5 15u

argentina pk 15u

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Chicago Sports Connection

STRAIGHT BET Feb 06 NBA [704] PHI 76ERS -3-110

INDIANA
....will play their 3rd game in 3 nights tonight due to a makeup game they played Monday VS Chicago.
IND won Monday and Tuesday....now, it's Wednesday.
We think their legs will give by the 2nd half.
If they should beat the spread today, we will double up against them on Friday VS Toronto.

PHILLY
....Rested
....won 3 straight
....won 4 of L5 in their current homestand
....have covered the last 5 as favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club Selections 06/02/2013
CBB:
25* #755 Southern Mississippi -2

25* #791 Mississippi State +17.5

#749 Minnesota +4

#728 Indiana State +5

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- 76ers won four of last five games (5-1 last six HF). Indiana won last four games, all by 10+ points (2-6 last eight AU).
-- Washington lost four of last five games (6-1 last seven HU). Knicks won last five games, covered last four (6-8 AF).
-- Celtics won their last four games (4-7-2 AU); this is their first away game since Rondo got hurt.
-- Cavaliers won four of last six games (1-3 HF).
-- Rockets won five of their last six games (2-5 last seven AU). Miami won seven of its last nine (8-4 last 12 HF).
-- Oklahoma City won/covered its last five home games (6-2 last eight HF). Warriors won four of last five games (2-5 last seven AU).
-- Portland won five of its last seven games (5-2 last seven AU).
-- Spurs won their last ten games (3-5 last eight AF).
-- Utah won seven of its last ten games (10-8 HF).

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost last ten games (1-9 vs spread). Injury-plagued Clippers lost last three games, scoring 89 ppg (2-8 vs spread in last 10).
-- Raptors lost four of last five games (6-5 HF).
-- Bobcats lost seven of last eight games (7-4 last 11 AU).
-- Nets lost four of their last six games (3-4 AU with PJ). Detroit lost six of its last eight games (1-4 last five HF).
-- Grizzlies lost three of last five games (5-1 last six AF). Atlanta is 1-3 in its last four games (1-3 HU).
-- New Orleans lost six of its last seven games (3-4 HF). Suns lost four of their last six games (8-11-1 AU).
-- Mavericks lost three of last four games (6-2 last eight HF).
-- Minnesota lost seven of last eight games (2-5 HU).
-- Bucks lost three of last four games (10-7 AU).


Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Orlando home games went over total.
-- Four of last five Philly games stayed under the total; five of last six Indiana games went over.
-- Eight of last ten New York games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Brooklyn games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Houston road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Memphis games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Golden State games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Portland games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten San Antonio games stayed under the total; five of last six Minnesota games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Milwaukee games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Pacers are 3-5 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Brooklyn is 1-7 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Houston is 2-5 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Memphis is 6-2 vs spread on road if it played night before. Hawks are 7-5 vs spread if they played night before, 4-3 at home.
-- Warriors are 5-2-1 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Phoenix is 4-8 vs spread if it played night before, 3-5 on road.
-- Milwaukee is 4-8 vs spread if it played night before, 2-2 on road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Creighton made 11-22 from arc, beat Indiana State 79-66 (-14) Jan 5, game that was tied with 10:00 left; Bluejays won last four series games, with three wins by 13+ points- they've won last three games overall, by 30-14-17 points, are 3-2 on MVC road, winning by 7-22-30. Sycamores are 5-0 at home in Valley; three of their last four games were decided by 3 or less points. MVC home underdogs are 14-6 vs spread.
-- Butler split last four games after 13-game win streak ended; they are 3-0 at home in A-16, winning by 15-12-7 points; four of their last seven wins are by 7 or less points. A-16 double digit home favorites are 3-9 vs spread. St Bonaventure won its last two road games, at Temple/St Joe's; they've won three of last four games, but are 2-8 vs teams in top 100. Only one of Bonnies' four A-16 losses was by more than 10 points.
-- Minnesota made 60% inside arc, outscored Michigan State 13-2 from foul line in 76-63 home win over Spartans Dec 31, second Minnesota win in last 14 series games. Gophers lost last eight visits here, by 1-14-14-5-12-1-5-5 points. State is 4-0 at home in league, winning by 23-10-5-3 points- their last four games were all decided by 5 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-5 vs spread.
-- Home side is 13-1 in last 14 Baylor-Oklahoma State games; Bears lost eight of last nine visits here, losing by 33-29-3-4-10-10-11 points, but in LY's visit, they won 64-60, are now 3-0 in last three series games. Big X home favorites are 15-11 vs spread. State won last three games, by 14-2-5 points, scoring 81 ppg- they're 4-0 at home in Big X, with three wins by 14+ points. Baylor lost last two games, allowing 74-79 points.

-- St John's won five of last six games, winning last three at home by 4-4-5 points; #99 Red Storm is 3-4 vs top 100 teams. UConn is 14-0 vs teams ranked lower than #40; they won last three games, last two in OT. Huskies are 8-2 in last 10 games vs St John's, losing last two series tilts here, by 22-17 points. Big East home teams are 2-18 vs spread if number is 5 or less points. UConn split its four Big East road games.
-- Southern Miss better not look ahead to Memphis game this weekend; Eagles won last eight games, are 4-0 on C-USA road, winning by 23-4-3-4 points. Home team won seven of last nine series games; USM's 78-65 win here LY was its first in last four visits to Orlando- they're 5-1 in last six series games, with four wins by 10+ points. C-USA home underdogs are 12-6 vs spread if number is 5 or less points.
-- Cincinnati won five of last six games; seven of its last eight were won by 8 or less points. Bearcats are 4-1 on Big East road, with only loss by a hoop at Syracuse; they won last three games vs Providence by 12-4-15 points. Friars are 1-4 at home in league, losing by 10-6-4-3 points; they are 3-9 in last 12 games overall, with four of last five decided by four or less points. Big East home underdogs of 6 or less points are 2-8.
-- Alabama won six of its last seven games, with last four wins by 4 or less points; Tide won its last five games vs Auburn, winning by 10-18 in last two visits here. Bama allowed 51.8 ppg in last six games; they're 2-2 on SEC road, losing at Tennessee/Mizzou. SEC home underdogs of 7 or less points are 7-3 vs spread. Auburn lost last six games, last five by 8+ points; they've lost two of three SEC home tilts (beat LSU).
-- Air Force is 5-2 in MWC, winning last five games; they've lost 12 in a row to New Mexico, losing their last five visits to Pit by 15-25-3-5-30 points. Lobos won six of last seven games, won all four MWC games at home, winning by 5-22-5-13 points. MWC home favorites of 7+ points are 6-3 vs spread. Falcons are 1-2 on road, losing by 5-39 points, with a win at Wyoming. Lobos better not look ahead to UNLV game Saturday.

-- Iowa raced out to 32-12 lead, held on for 70-66 win over Wisconsin at home Jan 19, outscoring Badgers 24-8 from charity stripe. Iowa won its last three series games, but win in Madison LY ended 6-game skid here, with losses by 3-14-12-13-17-27 points. Big Dozen home favorites of 7+ points are 8-11 vs spread. Badgers are 2-3 in last five games but are 3-1 at home in Big Dozen play, winning by 9-1-23 points.
-- Colorado State won its last three games, by 11-20-19 points; they are 1-2 on MWC road, winning by 11 in Fresno. Nevada lost six of its last eight games; they're 1-2 at home in MWC, losing by 11-21 points, with win over Boise. Five of State's last six games stayed under total. Eight of last nine Nevada games were decided by 10+ points. MWC home dogs are 5-3 against the spread so far this season.
-- UNLV lost three of four MWC road games, with only win at Viejas by 7; four of its seven league games were decided by exactly five points. Rebels have revenge at home with New Mexico Saturday. Fresno State is 2-10 in last dozen games; they're 1-3 at home in MWC, losing by 3-7-11 points. Three of last four Fresno State games went over the total. MWC home underdogs are 5-3 against the spread.
-- Stanford won its last three games, scoring 81.3 ppg, but they're 0-6 in last six games vs Arizona, losing by 14-8-10 points in last three visits to Tucson. Cardinal is 1-3 on Pac-12 road, losing by 2-8-21 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 1-5 vs spread. Arizona won its last three games, by 24-4-14 points; four of its last five wins are by 10+ points. Wildcats are 3-1 at home in conference, with wins by 9-3-24.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Bruins won six of their first eight games. Montreal won six of last seven.
-- Ducks won last three games by combined score of 12-6.

Cold teams
-- Colorado lost four of its first five road games.
-- Dallas Stars lost five of their last seven games. Edmonton lost its last three games, scoring five goals.

Totals
-- Under is 15-8 in last 23 Boston-Montreal games.
-- Five of last six Anaheim games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Dallas-Edmonton games stayed under the total.


Series records
-- Bruins won last four games vs Montreal, allowing six goals.
-- Ducks lost three of their last four games against Colorado.
-- Oilers lost nine of last ten games against Dallas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/06/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 2636-863 (.753)
ATS: 1162-1205 (.491)
ATS Vary Units: 3569-3812 (.484)
Over/Under: 318-304 (.511)
Over/Under Vary Units: 343-372 (.480)

America East Conference
Albany 65, UMBC 61
Hartford 61, BINGHAMTON 49
VERMONT 61, New Hampshire 44

Atlantic 10 Conference
BUTLER 74, St. Bonaventure 62
DAYTON 71, Saint Joseph's 68
George Washington 71, DUQUESNE 67
MASSACHUSETTS 76, Rhode Island 65
Saint Louis 72, FORDHAM 60
TEMPLE 71, Charlotte 64

Big 12 Conference
Kansas 71, TCU 49
OKLAHOMA STATE 72, Baylor 67

Big East Conference
Cincinnati 66, PROVIDENCE 63
Connecticut 68, ST. JOHN'S 67
Louisville 69, RUTGERS 57
Marquette 61, SOUTH FLORIDA 58

Big South Conference
COASTAL CAROLINA 70, Charleston Southern 69
Gardner-Webb 66, PRESBYTERIAN 62
High Point 74, CAMPBELL 73
UNC ASHEVILLE 71, Winthrop 59
Vmi 87, LONGWOOD 75

Big Ten Conference
MICHIGAN STATE 66, Minnesota 62
WISCONSIN 64, Iowa 58

Colonial Athletic Association
Delaware vs. TOWSON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Georgia State 69, UNC WILMINGTON 61
JAMES MADISON 67, William & Mary 57
Northeastern 68, HOFSTRA 58

Conference USA
Memphis 70, SMU 58
Southern Miss 69, UCF 68
TULANE 65, Marshall 63
TULSA 72, Uab 65
UTEP 70, Rice 54

Mid-American Conference
Bowling Green 57, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 56
EASTERN MICHIGAN 59, Buffalo 57
Ohio 73, BALL STATE 62
TOLEDO 72, Miami (Ohio) 63
WESTERN MICHIGAN 69, Kent State 63

Missouri Valley Conference
Creighton 72, INDIANA STATE 67
DRAKE 74, Illinois State 72

Mountain West Conference
Colorado State 71, NEVADA 62
NEW MEXICO 68, Air Force 58
SAN DIEGO STATE 72, Boise State 63
Unlv 68, FRESNO STATE 60

Northeast Conference
ROBERT MORRIS 79, Saint Francis (Pa.) 59
WAGNER 71, Mount St. Mary's 64

Pacific-10 Conference
ARIZONA 73, Stanford 62
OREGON STATE 71, Utah 64

Southeastern Conference
Alabama 62, AUBURN 57
LSU 64, Vanderbilt 62
OLE MISS 81, Mississippi State 58
TENNESSEE 59, Georgia 54

Non-Conference
COLGATE 73, Njit 63
HOUSTON BAPTIST 68, Kansas City 66
Texas-Pan American 76, NEW ORLEANS 73
Wyoming 63, CSU BAKERSFIELD 54

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/06/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 463-229 (.669)
ATS: 360-347 (.509)
ATS Vary Units: 1010-913 (.525)
Over/Under: 371-338 (.523)
Over/Under Vary Units: 542-484 (.528)

Boston vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Indiana 91, PHILADELPHIA 89
New York 96, WASHINGTON 94
L.A. Clippers 99, ORLANDO 92
CLEVELAND 103, Charlotte 94
ATLANTA 92, Memphis 90
MIAMI 108, Houston 99
DETROIT 95, Brooklyn 94
NEW ORLEANS 99, Phoenix 94
OKLAHOMA CITY 111, Golden State 101
DALLAS 104, Portland 98
San Antonio 106, MINNESOTA 96
UTAH 103, Milwaukee 98

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

02/06/13 Predictions

Season: 52-31 (.627)

Boston vs. MONTREAL: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Anaheim vs. COLORADO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
EDMONTON 3, Dallas 2

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 976- 729 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner WED New Mexico -10

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Ducks +110