2-7-13

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AT&T Pebble Beach
by Matt Fargo

Golf Preview & Picks

The PGA Tour goes back to California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Pebble Beach Golf Links is one of three host courses for the event along with Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course which replaces Poppy Hills for a fourth straight year as one of the three courses that had been part of this rotation. A traditional playing cut of the top 60 and ties will be made after 54 holes on Saturday, giving players one extra day to make a move.

Pebble Beach is one of the players’ favorite stops on Tour and for good reason. Hitting greens is essential to provide birdie opportunities and scoring on the par-5s is also crucial. Experience has played a big role in this event and a good track record will take precedence over those who have not played much, or played well here in the past. Last year was just the second time in seven years at Pebble Beach that the average score was under par.

The defending champion is Phil Mickelson (+550) who came from six shots back entering the final day and shot 64 to win by two shots over Charlie Wi. Mickelson is coming off a wire-to-wire win in Scottsdale last week. He played his best golf of the young season by far and narrowly missed a Thursday 59. He has won here four times.

The short price on Dustin Johnson (+800) is certainly justified. He has won here twice and finished inside the top seven two other times, and this is only his sixth start here. Taking last week off should have him recharged.

This is the third straight week we will use Hunter Mahan (+1,800). After a T15 at the Farmers, he finished T16 at TPC Scottsdale and he certainly looks ready to break through. He has performed very well here over the last couple years as his T15 last year came after a solo second in 2011, where he finished two back of D.A. Points. It is interesting to note his two best rounds that year came at Pebble.

We used Jimmy Walker (+3,000) two weeks ago at Torrey Pines and if not for a Tiger Woods runaway, he was right in the thick of it. He finished T4 and after making the cut at the Phoenix Open last week, he has made the weekend in all four starts as well as 13 straight going back to last season. He finished T9 at Pebble Beach in 2011 thanks to a Sunday 75 and followed it up last year with another T9 finish.

Tim Clark (+3,500) opened the season with a solo second at the Sony Open in Hawaii but followed that up with a missed cut at the Humana Challenge. He came back last week and was average with a T49 but he returns to the AT&T for the first time since 2010 when he finished T10 and has never been outside the top 25 when making the weekend. Injuries forced him to miss the last two years but he is healthy this time around.

For a long shot, we will take a look at Matt Every (+7,500). After missing the cut in his first two starts this year, he made the weekend at the Farmers and then followed that up with a T9 last week, posting a 65 and 66 along the way. He missed the cut here last year but that came after a missed cut in his previous start, so the momentum is on his side here. Prior to that, he finished T31 in 2011 and T27 in 2010.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
All for 1 Unit

Dustin Johnson (+800)

Hunter Mahan (+1,800)

Jimmy Walker (+3,000)

Tim Clark (+3,500)

Matt Every (+7,500)

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See Spot. See Spot bet: This Week's Best Spot Bet Opportunities

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead Spot

The Los Angeles Lakers are fighting for their season on their current seven-game road swing, taking a 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) record into Thursday’s stop in Boston – Game No. 5 on the annual “Grammy” trip. The Lakers actually find themselves in the rare “Lookahead Letdown” spot Friday, when they visit the lowly Charlotte Bobcats.

Los Angeles will be coming off a heated rivalry game with the Celtics and looking ahead to Sunday’s clash with the Miami Heat when they face the Bobcats. An aging roster and injuries to bigs Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol may have L.A. more focused on resting up for Miami.

Letdown Spot

The ACC is one of the tightest conferences in college hoops, with five teams in the hunt for the conference crown. Two of those programs are North Carolina State and Duke, which collide in Cameron Indoor Stadium Thursday night. The Wolfpack knocked off the Blue Devils at home back in January but haven’t won in Durham since 2007.

Following that showdown, NC State pays a visit to J.C. Littlejohn Coliseum to face the Clemson Tigers. Clemson may not be in the thick of the ACC race but the Tigers took the fight to the Wolfpack in their first meeting of the year, covering as 8.5-point road underdogs in a 66-62 loss on Jan. 20. NC State guard Lorenzo Brown is still a question mark this week (ankle).

Scheduling Spot

The Anaheim Ducks open a six-game road trip in Colorado Wednesday – not the best place to start an extended away swing due to the change in altitude from Anaheim to the Pepsi Center. The Ducks play three games in four nights, moving to Dallas and St. Louis Friday and Saturday before catching their breath for a few days.

Anaheim is back on the road in Chicago Tuesday, in Detroit Friday and closes this tough stretch of schedule at Nashville on Feb. 16. The Ducks have built a solid 6-1-0-1 record thanks to a home-heavy sked, playing five of those games inside the Honda Center. They’ve scored a franchise-record 29 goals in their first eight games but struggled to find the net in the role of visitors last season, averaging only 2.07 goals per road game – second worst in the NHL.

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NHL Betting: Early Surprises & Disappointments

Every game counts in the lockout-shortened NHL season and, believe it or not, we’re nearly a quarter of the way through the campaign already.

Here’s a look at three surprise teams that are off to a great start and three squads bettors didn’t expect to be disappointed in early on.

Surprise Teams

Montreal Canadiens (6-2-0 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U)

Stanley Cup futures - Opened: 40/1, Now: 40/1

The Canadiens were expected to be the basement dwellers in the East this season, but the Habs have surprisingly skated to a strong start. Bettors on the puckline aren’t enjoying much success, though, and Montreal hasn’t had an early edge on totals. The Habs’ schedule has been home-heavy and they’ll have to prove to oddsmakers they can win consistently on the road before they consider moving Stanley Cup futures.

Tampa Bay Lightning (6-3-0 SU, 7-2 ATS, 5-3-1 O/U)

Stanley Cup futures – Opened: 25/1, Now: 25/1

The Lightning have also benefited from a ton of home games early on, resulting in a league-best 7-2 record on the puckline. Tampa Bay dropped the first contest of a four-game road swing in Philadelphia Tuesday. It won’t get any easier for the Lightning with visits to New Jersey, Boston and New York up next.

Anaheim Ducks (6-1-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U)

Stanley Cup futures – Opened: 30/1, Now 20/1

The Ducks have earned points in seven of their eight games this season and are winners of three straight. Backup netminder Victor Fasth is off to a red-hot start, boasting a perfect 3-0 record with a 1.30 GAA behind Jonas Hiller. The Ducks are also having success finding the back of the net, averaging 3.5 goals per game – the second-best mark in the league.

Teams Not Meeting Bettors’ Expectations

Los Angeles Kings (3-3-2 SU, 2-6 ATS, 4-3-1 O/U)

Stanley Cup futures – Opened: 9/1, Now: 16/1

The Stanley Cup hangover wasn’t supposed to be a factor for the Kings because of the lockout, but it appears as though they’ve succumbed to the curse. Injuries to Willie Mitchell and Matt Greene on the back end haven’t helped the cause and bettors certainly aren’t happy with the team’s results on the puckline. Los Angeles seemed like a steal when it opened at 9/1 value in Stanley Cup futures and now bettors can buy in at 16/1 if they aren’t afraid of the team's slow start.

New York Rangers (4-5-0 SU, 3-6 ATS, 3-6 O/U)

Stanley Cup futures – Opened: 8/1, Now: 9/1

The Rangers dropped three of their first four contests to put them behind the eight ball and have failed to string together more than two consecutive wins to get back on track. New York’s early schedule was jammed with tough divisional games, but some weaker opponents are on the horizon. The Rangers will have the chance to beat up on the Islanders (twice) and the Capitals in their next five games.

Detroit Red Wings (4-4-1 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U)

Stanley Cup futures – Opened: 12/1, Now: 30/1

The Red Wings have been the model of consistency in the NHL for years, but now they're dealing with the loss of franchise defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom. Detroit was cruising along slightly above .500 before dropping back-to-back contests to the lowly Flames and Blue Jackets. Injuries to key penalty killers Darren Helm and Mikael Samuelsson have really hurt the Wings, who have the third-worst PK in the league at 69.8 percent.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exposing the Top 25: Where the Polls Went Wrong

Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Miami Hurricanes (17-3, 14-4 ATS)

The Hurricanes have won 10 straight overall, covering the spread in eight of those contests. They upset top-ranked Duke and they handed the N.C. State Wolfpack their first home loss Saturday, scoring the go-ahead bucket with less than a second remaining on the clock in a 79-78 victory.

The toughest stretch of schedule is already behind them, as they don't face any ranked teams until they meet Duke in early March. They face conference rivals UNC at home Saturday and have already defeated North Carolina on the road by a convincing 9-point margin earlier this season. It wouldn't be too much of a shock to see the Hurricanes continue to climb in the rankings over the next few weeks.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - UNLV Runnin' Rebels (17-5, 8-13 ATS)

The Rebels are coming off a loss to Boise State their last time out and, while they are 6-4 SU in their last 10, they have only covered the spread in two of those contests. Star forward Mike Moser was ejected in the loss to the Broncos for a flagrant foul in the first half. The Rebels are fortunate that Moser did not receive a suspension and will suit up against Fresno State.

Moser still doesn't appear to be 100 percent since returning from injury, averaging fewer than eight points and just under seven boards on the season. UNLV is just two games back of the Lobos in the Mountain West and they host New Mexico Saturday.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – North Carolina State Wolfpack (16-6, 11-9 ATS)

The Wolfpack lost on their home floor for the first time this season Saturday, but perhaps they deserved better. Already banged up and without their starting PG Lorenzo Brown, the Wolfpack battled hard and took a 6-point lead to the half. They led 74-69 with just over three minutes to play and they held the lead until the final second of the game, with the Hurricanes scoring on a tip-in.

With the loss, the Wolfpack have fallen out of the Top 25 and they have a tough game coming up against Duke Thursday. The rest of the schedule appears to get a little easier, and when Brown returns, they could go on another run with eight straight games versus unranked opponents.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Study Group: Thursday's Top 25 NCB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on all of Thursday’s ranked college basketball games:

(1) Indiana at Illinois (+7.5)

Indiana is back atop the national rankings and seeks its sixth straight victory when it visits floundering Illinois. Illinois has lost three straight games and six of seven and is a disappointing 10th in the 12-team league. The Fighting Illini have allowed an average of 76 points during the three-game skid. In Big Ten games, Illinois ranks last in the conference in both scoring defense (69.8) and field-goal percentage (45.3). The Hoosiers average a conference-best 75.8 in Big Ten play and rank second by making 47 percent of their shots. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five Thursday games.

(20) Missouri at Texas A&M (+3.5)

Missouri will try to solve its road woes when the 20th-ranked Tigers visit Texas A&M for the former Big 12 rivals' first meeting as SEC opponents. The Tigers have been outstanding at home, but they are 0-4 on the road and have lost their first three conference road games. The Aggies are trying to avoid a fourth consecutive home loss after a 72-68 overtime defeat to Kentucky on Saturday. Texas A&M has scored 55 points or less in five of its past six games and is 0-4 ATS in its last four Thursday contests.

NC State at (4) Duke (-10.5)

North Carolina State suffered back-to-back losses last week and has lost four of six since knocking off then-No. 1 Duke at home on Jan. 12. NC State has suffered its last four losses by a total of seven points but has the type of inside strength to counter Mason Plumlee and Duke. The Blue Devils are connecting at a 41.1 percent clip from beyond the arc and went 11-of-18 from 3-point range in Saturday’s 79-60 win at Florida State. NC State’s defense holds opponents to 28.7 percent from beyond the arc - best in the ACC. Three-point shooting was a big part of the first meeting, when the Blue Devils struggled to 6-of-20 from beyond the arc. Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.

Colorado at (19) Oregon (-5.5)

The Ducks look to get back on the winning track when they host Colorado at the Knight Arena, where they've won 20 straight games. Overall, Colorado hasn't won at Oregon, regardless of the arena, in 58 years. The Ducks have lost two of three since point guard Dominic Artis went down with a foot injury. Coach Dana Altman feels Artis will return soon but he is questionable for this week's action. Oregon is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.

Pepperdine at (6) Gonzaga (-22.5)

Gonzaga looks to extend its winning streak to five when the Bulldogs host a Pepperdine team that’s fallen out of the conference race with three straight losses. Gonzaga has won 38 of the last 43 games against the Waves, including 23 in a row. The Bulldogs will again be heavy favorites against Pepperdine, which has lost 14 straight in Spokane. Eight of the 11 Pepperdine players who will dress against Gonzaga are freshmen or sophomores. The Waves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BONES BEST BET

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am
Very top heavy tournament this weekend at Pebble Beach with not as many big names as we typically see at this very famous track. That being said - we haven't felt this good about our plays for a tournament in a long time. We typically look for long shots in these T5/T10 bets, but for this week we have to go with the chalk as stated earlier - very top heavy this weekend.

Futures (2 units total)

Johnson +775 *1.1 units*

Harrington +2500 *0.4 units*

Watney +2200 *0.4 units*

Marino +7000 *0.1 units*

Top 10

Mickelson -110 *1 unit*

Johnson +105 *1 unit*

Snedeker +125 *1 unit*

Matchups

Johnson +100 over Mickelson *1 unit*

Harrington +130 over Garrigus *1 unit*

Walker +110 over De Jonge *1 unit*

Marino +140 over Palmer *1 unit*

Snedeker -142 over Westwood *1 unit*

Mahan +100 over Simpson *1 unit*

Every -125 over Treater *1 unit*

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

UL Monroe +5 over Arkansas LR.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Temple (-9 1/2) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s Virginia. Mighty also predicts no snow over the next three days (I guess in NY). The deficit is 135 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/07/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 473-231 (.672)
ATS: 369-351 (.513)
ATS Vary Units: 1034-917 (.530)
Over/Under: 376-346 (.521)
Over/Under Vary Units: 544-494 (.524)

BOSTON 99, L.A. Lakers 96
DENVER 101, Chicago 95

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Illinois +7.5
UCLA -9

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Rangers won three of last four home games.
-- Canadiens won six of their last eight games.
-- Pittsburgh won last four games, allowing six goals. Devils won their last two games, allowing one goal.
-- Flyers won last three home games, allowing five goals.
-- Carolina won four of its last six games. Ottawa won last three home games, scoring 12 goals.
-- Maple Leafs won four of last five road games.
-- Predators won last three games, allowing one goal in each game.
-- Vancouver won its last three games, allowing three goals.
-- Chicago won eight of its last ten games. Coyotes won three of last four at home.

Cold teams
-- Flames lost five of their first seven games; Columbus lost six of eight.
-- Islanders lost last two games, 3-0/4-2.
-- Sabres lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Washington lost seven of first nine games.
-- Lightning lost last two games, scoring total of three goals.
-- Panthers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Winnipeg lost three of its last four games.
-- Kings are 3-5 in first eight games, 3-2 in last five.
-- Red Wings lost three of last four road games. St Louis lost its last two games, giving up 11 goals.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Columbus-Calgary games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Islander-Ranger games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-2-2 in last sixteen Buffalo-Montreal games.
-- Seven of last eight Washington games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Lightning-Devil games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Florida-Philly games.
-- Four of last five Carolina-Ottawa games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Winnipeg-Toronto games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight LA-Nashville games went over the total.
-- Three of four Detroit road games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Vancouver-Minnesota games.
-- Seven of last eight Chicago games stayed under the total.


Series records
-- Blue Jackets won three of last four games against Calgary.
-- Rangers won eight of last eleven games against the Islanders.
-- Sabres won eight of last ten games against Montreal.
-- Penguins won three of last four games against Washington.
-- Devils won 18 of last 22 games against Tampa Bay.
-- Flyers won five of last six games against Florida.
-- Hurricanes won three in row, six of last eight vs Ottawa.
-- Home side won last six Toronto-Winnipeg games.
-- Kings won seven of last ten games against Nashville.
-- Red Wings won five of last six games against St Louis.
-- Canucks won seven of last nine games against Minnesota.
-- Blackhawks lost seven of last ten games against Phoenix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Boston won last three games, three by 4 or less points. Lakers won six of their last seven games, but now Gasol is hurt.
-- Denver won its last seven games (6-2 last eight HF). Bulls won six of last nine games (5-1 last six AU).

Cold Teams
-- None.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Denver games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Celtics are 4-5-2 if they played night before, but 2-0 at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Clemson (-1) held Virginia to 35%, outscored Cavaliers 19-5 on foul line in 59-44 home win over UVa Jan 12, 8th straight series win for host team. Clemson lost last six visits here, by 11-2-6-4-2-4 points. Virginia won four of last five games, is 4-0 at home in ACC, winning by 9-20-14-3 points. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 12-6 vs spread. Clemson is 0-4 on ACC road, with three losses by 7 or less points.
-- Trap game for Indiana, in Michigan/Ohio State sandwich vs Illini club that lost six of last seven games, with last two losses by 5-6 points. Big Dozen home underdogs are 8-14 vs spread. Illinois is 5-2 in last seven vs Hoosiers; Indiana lost last three visits here, by 31-2-24 points. Illinois is getting to foul line less than any Big Dozen team in league play, making 25.4% behind arc. Indiana is #1 in league in both those categories.
-- Wright State (-3) held Green Bay to 36.2% from floor in 64-53 home win Jan 3, its 5th win in last seven series games, but Raiders lost four of last five visits here, losing by 3-11-1-2 points. Horizon home teams are 11-9 vs spread if number was 5 or less points. Green Bay won all four Horizon home games, winning by 13-6-9-27 points; this is its first home game in 19 days. Wright State lost four of its last six games.
-- UCLA lost three of last four games after 10-game win streak; they've lost last two at home, to Oregon/USC, and lost four of last five games to former Bruin aide Romar, as home teams won 14 of last 15 series games, with Washington losing five of last six visits here, with losses by 22-14-9-1-6 points. Huskies lost four of last five games, with all four losses by 9 or less points. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 3-8 vs spread.

-- Missouri has yet to win on SEC road, losing by 15-31-3 points; they are 5-0 at home in SEC, 5-4 vs top 100 teams. Bowers has 22 points in 52 minutes after missing previous five games with an injury. SEC single digit home underdogs are 8-3 vs spread. Texas A&M lost five of its last six games, splitting pair of OT tilts last two times out- they've lost last three home games, by 21-4-7 points, but they also won at Kentucky.
-- NC State (+1.5) beat Duke 84-76 in Raleigh Jan 12, holding Duke to 6 of 20 from arc (Curry was 5-10, others 1-10). but Wolfpack is 2-4 since then, losing three road games by total of six points. State lost its last six visits to Cameron by 19-13-20-17-24-5 points. Duke is 4-0 at home in ACC, with all four wins by 16+ points- they allowed 84-90 points in its two ACC losses. ACC double digit home favorites are 9-3 vs spread.
-- ASU is 17-5, 6-3 after being 10-21 LY, thats how big a difference PG Carson has been for Sun Devils, who won four of five Pac-12 home tilts, winning by 1-9-5-18 points, with loss to Arizona. Cal won its last five games vs ASU, winning by 8-4 in last two visits here; Bears won three of last four games, with all three wins by 5 or less points. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-13 against the spread.
-- Colorado (+3) upset Oregon 63-62 in Pac-12 tourney LY, taking two of three from Ducks in Buffs' first year in league; Colorado lost three of four on Pac-12 road, winning at Wazzu, losing by 9-9-10-3 points. Not sure of status of Oregon's PG Artis (foot); without him last weekend, Ducks lost first two conference games of season, scoring 52-54 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 10-18 vs spread.
-- St Mary's won six in row, 16 of last 17 games vs Santa Clara, winning last three visits here by 8-6-16 points; Gaels won their last seven games overall, three by 6 or less points. Santa Clara won five of last six games, but is 2-2 at home in WCC, losing to BYU by 18, Gonzaga by 7. WCC home teams are 0-8 vs spread if number was 5 or less points. Three of Santa Clara's last four series wins were by 15+ points.

-- Long Beach State is 9-1 in Big West after going 4-7 against the hardest non-conference schedule in country; 49ers won last three road games, by 7-9-10 points. Beach (-7) beat Hawai'i 76-72 at home Jan 12, making 10 of 23 behind arc, outscoring Warriors 18-7 on foul line (Hawai'i missed 8 of 15 FTs). Hawai'i is 4-1 at home in league with only loss to UC-Davis. Big West home teams are 6-18 vs spread if number is 5 or less points.
-- North Dakota State is 9-2 in Summit but lost last two road games, by 8-16 points; Bison (-11) beat Oakland 73-65 in first meeting, a game the Bison never trailed-- they shot 65% inside arc, 11-20 outside it, missed 12 of 22 FTs. Summit League home dogs of 5 or less points are 5-3 vs spread. Oakland scored 84 ppg in winning last three games; they're 4-1 at home in Summit- they try to outscore teams. Not much on defense.
-- Rider lost three of last four games, losing last two at home by 17-11 points. Niagara won five of six MAAC road games this year; they're 7-1 in last eight games overall, with last two going to OT. Eagles lost five of last six games with Rider; LY's two games were decided by total of three points, with home side winning both. MAAC home underdogs are 10-6 vs spread. Rider is turning ball over 23.5% of time (#310 in nation).
-- Murray State is 58-9 in its last 67 OVC games, now they're getting 4 points at home from Belmont, which is 10-0 in its first OVC season, 4-0 on road with three wins by 11+ points; Bruins are older club with one frosh, one soph in rotation. Murray's last four games were all decided by 9 or less points. Racers won last three home games, after getting upset at home by EKU squad that had 20-0 run at one point in game. OVC home underdogs are 7-10, but 3-2 if number is less than 5 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Hook

Here are TENNIS PLAYS for OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY:

MICHAEL LLODRA +108 Tipsarevic (3 UNITS)

IVAN DODIG -155 Karlovic (2 UNITS)

RICHARD GASQUET -150 Monfils (2 UNITS)

CHRISTIAN GARIN +6 Chardy (2 UNITS)